Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$625

Unrealized P&L

+$42

Hit rate

55.5%

Resolved

Trades

126

lifetime

Volume

$8.34K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$66

Open exposure

$430

3 positions

First seen

2026-08-10

last 10-26 14:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Politics

51% 27% -$665

Other

48% 53% +$60

Tech

1% 0% -$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Yes	+356	$269	86¢	$308	+$39	10-23 08:22
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	+115	$105	98¢	$113	+$8	10-26 14:08
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+237	$14	4¢	$9	-$5	10-26 14:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	5	$622	418	418	+0	open	—	08-20 15:28
nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	11	$602	659	340	+319	No	+$186	08-21 22:18
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	6	$572	524	524	+0	No	+$22	08-19 19:31
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	6	$556	323	323	+0	open	—	10-06 17:17
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	7	$541	410	410	+0	Yes	+$102	10-06 17:18
will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	2	$530	664	0	+664	Yes	-$530	08-18 14:14
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	7	$495	512	512	+0	No	-$31	08-29 12:25
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	3	$357	219	219	+0	open	—	10-23 08:21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	6	$341	1,008	1,008	+0	open	—	09-05 13:13
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	4	$330	424	424	+0	Yes	-$70	10-23 07:51
Fed rate hike in 2026?	4	$295	172	172	+0	Yes	+$38	09-16 18:00
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	1	$269	356	0	+356	open	—	10-23 08:22
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	5	$233	192	76	+115	open	—	10-26 14:08
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	13	$230	159	159	+0	Yes	+$24	09-10 14:28
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	3	$222	128	128	+0	open	—	10-21 13:48
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$202	153	153	+0	Yes	+$0	08-11 11:14
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	4	$190	187	187	+0	No	-$9	09-01 17:12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	2	$188	1,250	1,250	+0	open	—	09-04 20:30
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in July?	1	$150	214	0	+214	No	+$64	08-17 15:12
will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	1	$133	137	0	+137	No	+$4	08-10 18:13
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$126	133	133	+0	Yes	-$73	09-12 06:58
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	2	$122	300	300	+0	Yes	-$20	09-03 20:56
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	4	$106	81	81	+0	open	—	10-23 08:21
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?	2	$105	160	0	+160	open	—	10-17 09:47
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.39% in September?	1	$100	182	0	+182	Yes	-$100	09-18 08:26
will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	1	$100	135	0	+135	Yes	-$100	08-16 10:50
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?	2	$99	78	78	+0	Yes	-$1	08-17 15:11
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?	2	$92	100	100	+0	Yes	+$2	08-18 09:20
russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by june 30 2027	3	$84	70	70	+0	open	—	10-23 08:21
will iran target a arab country on august 17 2026 20260801004719134	1	$67	212	0	+212	Yes	-$67	08-21 16:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 14:09:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	237	6¢	$14	0x732d35…
10-26 14:08:48	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0x06b394…
10-23 08:22:05	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Yes	BUY	356	76¢	$269	0x1f338b…
10-23 08:21:45	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	219	89¢	$195	0x458f16…
10-23 08:21:33	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0x819195…
10-23 08:21:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	39	54¢	$21	0xdea640…
10-23 08:21:12	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	No	SELL	50	65¢	$32	0x3e921e…
10-23 08:09:44	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	62	24¢	$15	0xc80f59…
10-23 08:08:00	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	No	SELL	26	63¢	$16	0xe0166a…
10-23 08:07:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	31	54¢	$17	0x26c663…
10-23 08:05:48	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	33	24¢	$8	0x76681d…
10-23 07:51:18	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	281	3¢	$8	0x784ace…
10-22 18:28:38	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	No	BUY	81	67¢	$54	0x995617…
10-22 18:22:17	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	281	36¢	$100	0xb05189…
10-22 10:38:09	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	73¢	$31	0x0288c8…
10-22 07:00:33	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	143	86¢	$123	0x7203a5…
10-21 18:34:11	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	74¢	$31	0x41b569…
10-21 13:56:33	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	98	92¢	$90	0x73d51e…
10-21 13:48:53	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	SELL	128	95¢	$122	0x3f1543…
10-20 18:15:24	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	92¢	$29	0x70fc85…
10-19 19:24:20	Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	57	52¢	$30	0xf14b3e…
10-17 09:54:41	Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	57	48¢	$27	0x5b6b05…
10-17 09:47:47	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	105	66¢	$70	0xfd0834…
10-17 09:46:47	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	55	63¢	$35	0xac0cb2…
10-12 13:49:03	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0xb553cc…
10-12 13:48:36	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x9e0bf7…
10-12 13:37:15	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0xb82a07…
10-06 17:18:02	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	114	86¢	$98	0x125310…
10-06 17:17:24	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	213	97¢	$206	0xf108f5…
09-30 21:01:45	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	36	86¢	$31	0xc81c7a…
09-28 17:38:33	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	119	75¢	$89	0xc429a9…
09-22 11:57:06	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	150	66¢	$100	0xf6df84…
09-21 07:54:15	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	260	74¢	$192	0x8a918c…
09-18 13:55:53	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x828dc0…
09-18 08:26:24	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.39% in September?	No	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x605822…
09-16 18:28:25	will warsh say scenario during september press conference 20260909	No	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x43f580…
09-16 18:00:04	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	157	97¢	$152	0xbf77cf…
09-16 11:37:45	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0x52aeec…
09-13 21:03:34	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	87¢	$29	0x1e23bc…
09-12 06:58:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	133	20¢	$27	0x60a27a…
09-11 14:12:30	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	179	46¢	$82	0x3e2d7d…
09-11 13:16:25	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	73	46¢	$34	0x8ebaa9…
09-11 13:16:15	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	46¢	$4	0xb15e0e…
09-11 10:28:57	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	219	1¢	$3	0x0d7a89…
09-10 14:28:13	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0x217679…
09-10 14:27:43	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	SELL	13	80¢	$10	0xaa517f…
09-10 14:27:30	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	SELL	83	80¢	$67	0xcc143e…
09-10 13:33:10	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	SELL	6	80¢	$4	0x79b2d5…
09-10 12:56:39	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	SELL	42	80¢	$34	0x3a7191…
09-10 12:52:28	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	81¢	$12	0x94dde3…
09-05 13:13:46	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	102	84¢	$86	0xc805af…
09-05 13:13:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	506	17¢	$86	0x5ab3d7…
09-05 13:09:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	506	18¢	$91	0x1bbfbb…
09-05 13:08:37	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	110	82¢	$91	0x69c663…
09-05 08:32:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0xd79efe…
09-05 08:30:55	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	70	65¢	$46	0xad7c31…
09-05 08:30:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	468	9¢	$43	0xd02d22…
09-05 08:30:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	11¢	$3	0xe7c32e…
09-04 20:32:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	503	23¢	$118	0xb87973…
09-04 20:30:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,250	7¢	$88	0x809c89…
09-04 20:29:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,250	8¢	$100	0xcdf8da…
09-03 20:56:43	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	300	17¢	$51	0xa6341d…
09-03 20:39:49	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	300	24¢	$71	0x1af0f9…
09-02 18:09:43	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	110	65¢	$72	0xd0cbe3…
09-02 18:07:46	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xc9f837…
09-02 17:59:49	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x6c34f9…
09-02 17:54:37	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0xd139d9…
09-02 17:54:37	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0xc4e804…
09-02 17:54:34	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x3399d7…
09-02 17:30:28	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x662a2b…
09-02 13:03:25	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x718291…
09-01 17:12:06	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	92	44¢	$40	0x97be4d…
08-29 12:27:30	will russia announce a new forced mobilization by october 31 2026	No	BUY	47	76¢	$36	0x257435…
08-29 12:25:57	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	280	13¢	$36	0xcbf4b1…
08-27 08:55:33	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	54¢	$50	0x020c8d…
08-27 08:54:57	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	62	80¢	$50	0xc58794…
08-27 08:52:58	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	280	23¢	$64	0x56bdc6…
08-26 22:08:40	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	94	53¢	$50	0x6b2129…
08-26 21:58:00	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0xb34ffc…
08-26 21:41:09	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0xa0f683…
08-26 15:20:13	will russia announce a new forced mobilization by october 31 2026	No	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x064140…
08-25 14:02:49	will russia announce a new forced mobilization by october 31 2026	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x9d8d4b…
08-21 22:26:00	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be at least 44m?	Yes	BUY	82	2¢	$2	0x7e57db…
08-21 22:25:45	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 41m and 44m?	Yes	BUY	202	5¢	$10	0xd24e50…
08-21 22:18:13	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	52	96¢	$50	0x412ef7…
08-21 16:42:37	will iran target a arab country on august 17 2026 20260801004719134	No	BUY	212	32¢	$67	0x38bf55…
08-21 16:38:57	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	71	95¢	$67	0x269df1…
08-20 15:45:06	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	190	51¢	$97	0xc41a47…
08-20 15:43:40	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	No	SELL	116	84¢	$97	0x6158d9…
08-20 15:42:40	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	156	49¢	$77	0xc13de4…
08-20 15:41:43	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	No	SELL	91	84¢	$77	0xbcdd6f…
08-20 15:37:54	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	95	55¢	$52	0x44ac39…
08-20 15:37:28	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	No	SELL	26	84¢	$22	0xeada05…
08-20 15:37:06	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	67	45¢	$30	0x854e38…
08-20 15:32:13	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	67	64¢	$43	0xe0ed96…
08-20 15:28:03	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	61¢	$43	0x7d3ba4…
08-20 15:21:22	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	56¢	$40	0x6b959e…
08-20 15:20:40	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	72	55¢	$40	0x0cbb72…
08-20 15:13:34	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	72	66¢	$48	0x3042e0…
08-20 15:04:10	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	SELL	78	61¢	$48	0x6ee97f…