Arid-Vaccine — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$40

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$6.49K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$127

Open exposure

$223

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 10-14 11:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Other

59% 100% +$21

Politics

28% 100% +$17

Crypto

13% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	No		+125	$120	96¢	$120	$0	10-14 11:36
kharg island no longer under iranian control by october 31	No		+103	$102	100¢	$103	+$1	10-14 11:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
donald trump of truth social posts march 3 march 10 160 179	1	$480	481	0	+481	Yes	+$1	03-10 15:55
donald trump of truth social posts march 6 march 13 200plus	3	$442	223	223	+0	No	+$2	03-13 07:42
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	1	$322	324	0	+324	No	+$2	03-13 08:04
elon musk of tweets january 12 january 14 190 214	1	$300	300	0	+300	No	+$0	01-14 13:42
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 560 579	1	$240	240	0	+240	No	+$0	02-03 03:54
will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$240	240	0	+240	No	+$0	02-25 06:46
will ethereum reach 4600 in january 2026	1	$235	236	0	+236	No	+$1	01-24 00:53
will silver si hit high 190 by end of february 182	1	$220	220	0	+220	No	+$0	02-25 06:45
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?	1	$210	210	0	+210	No	+$0	06-08 06:30
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 380 399	1	$200	201	0	+201	No	+$1	01-14 13:42
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	3	$183	99	99	+0	No	+$5	05-20 14:13
will trump meet with xi jinping in july 2026 20260626153701907	1	$170	171	0	+171	No	+$1	07-08 10:32
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$170	170	0	+170	No	+$0	04-02 05:41
will bitcoin dip to 40k in january 2026	1	$160	160	0	+160	No	+$0	01-24 00:52
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$160	160	0	+160	No	+$0	05-12 16:15
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13?	1	$155	155	0	+155	No	+$0	05-12 16:16
putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	1	$150	151	0	+151	No	+$1	08-17 07:41
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$150	150	0	+150	No	+$0	09-05 09:18
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 280 299	1	$150	150	0	+150	No	+$0	03-11 06:37
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in September?	1	$150	151	0	+151	No	+$1	09-22 05:52
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	1	$148	148	0	+148	No	+$0	06-22 06:02
netanyahu out by july 31	1	$144	145	0	+145	No	+$1	07-08 10:35
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	2	$133	67	67	+0	No	+$1	08-17 07:40
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	1	$132	134	0	+134	No	+$2	05-19 06:51
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$130	131	0	+131	No	+$1	07-08 10:34
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$120	122	0	+122	No	+$2	04-02 05:44
Trump out as President before 2027?	1	$120	125	0	+125	open	—	10-14 11:36
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 440 459	1	$120	120	0	+120	No	+$0	02-03 03:53
donald trump of truth social posts march 10 march 17 200plus	3	$107	57	57	+0	No	+$7	03-13 08:47
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	1	$105	105	0	+105	No	+$0	06-08 06:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 11:37:05	kharg island no longer under iranian control by october 31	No	BUY	103	99¢	$102	0x1083e1…
10-14 11:36:31	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	125	96¢	$120	0x6ea569…
09-22 05:52:57	Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in September?	No	BUY	151	100¢	$150	0xdf0b26…
09-05 09:18:37	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	72	100¢	$72	0x7e6f72…
09-05 09:18:18	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x10576d…
08-17 07:41:52	will bitcoin dip to 40k in august 2026	No	BUY	71	99¢	$71	0x575b2a…
08-17 07:41:25	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	151	99¢	$150	0x0197e4…
08-17 07:40:36	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	67	99¢	$67	0xe402cb…
07-08 10:35:16	netanyahu out by july 31	No	BUY	145	99¢	$144	0x4cdf00…
07-08 10:34:17	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	131	100¢	$130	0xf1a3a9…
07-08 10:32:05	will trump meet with xi jinping in july 2026 20260626153701907	No	BUY	171	100¢	$170	0xdeb0b4…
06-22 06:02:29	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	148	100¢	$148	0xe59e81…
06-22 06:02:05	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	67	98¢	$66	0xfac675…
06-08 06:30:07	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?	No	BUY	210	100¢	$210	0x7e50cc…
06-08 06:28:51	Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x427795…
05-20 14:13:04	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	89	95¢	$84	0xffe9d6…
05-20 14:12:24	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x179b03…
05-19 06:51:32	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	134	98¢	$132	0xece8ce…
05-19 06:50:32	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	99	90¢	$89	0xb74d67…
05-12 16:37:55	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xadc9ed…
05-12 16:30:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x63536e…
05-12 16:17:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xba1128…
05-12 16:16:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13?	No	BUY	155	100¢	$155	0xe8fd09…
05-12 16:15:00	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	160	100¢	$160	0x64c7f3…
05-12 16:14:14	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xe58fb1…
05-12 16:13:06	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x0b9800…
04-22 07:25:50	Will the People's Bank of China increase rates in April?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xfd73cf…
04-20 01:11:30	bitcoin above 80k on april 20	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0x7b8f9d…
04-02 05:47:15	khamenei of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 120 139	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0xf6e3f9…
04-02 05:44:35	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	122	99¢	$120	0x836aa2…
04-02 05:41:39	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	170	100¢	$170	0xf20f66…
03-17 08:27:35	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	89	99¢	$88	0xbca6e3…
03-13 08:47:47	donald trump of truth social posts march 10 march 17 200plus	No	SELL	20	98¢	$19	0x7ebb8d…
03-13 08:28:35	donald trump of truth social posts march 10 march 17 200plus	No	SELL	38	98¢	$37	0x907b47…
03-13 08:04:47	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	324	99¢	$322	0xaba15a…
03-13 07:42:41	donald trump of truth social posts march 6 march 13 200plus	No	SELL	223	100¢	$222	0xef4568…
03-11 06:37:17	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 280 299	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xecab81…
03-11 06:35:37	donald trump of truth social posts march 10 march 17 200plus	No	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0x2c2ce8…
03-11 06:34:59	donald trump of truth social posts march 6 march 13 200plus	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x480b06…
03-11 06:34:35	donald trump of truth social posts march 6 march 13 200plus	No	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x499c96…
03-10 15:55:05	donald trump of truth social posts march 3 march 10 160 179	Yes	BUY	481	100¢	$480	0xcbaa44…
02-25 06:46:08	will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	240	100¢	$240	0xf5da09…
02-25 06:45:22	will silver si hit high 190 by end of february 182	No	BUY	220	100¢	$220	0xa304dd…
02-03 03:54:32	elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 560 579	No	BUY	240	100¢	$240	0x71ef6a…
02-03 03:53:58	elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 320 339	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xf50832…
02-03 03:53:36	elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 440 459	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x876f7a…
01-24 00:53:12	will ethereum reach 4600 in january 2026	No	BUY	236	100¢	$235	0x6545b2…
01-24 00:52:04	will bitcoin dip to 40k in january 2026	No	BUY	160	100¢	$160	0xe2bbab…
01-24 00:50:24	israel strikes iran by january 23 2026	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xf9d4fe…
01-14 13:42:56	elon musk of tweets january 12 january 14 190 214	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0xa5f8ec…
01-14 13:42:06	elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 380 399	No	BUY	201	99¢	$200	0x03952e…