Unsteady-Fugato — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.52K

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

0.9%

Resolved

214

Trades

241

lifetime

Volume

$21.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$91

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-09

last 10-14 16:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 46 days

Categories

Sports

88% 17% -$11

Crypto

11% 76% -$1,511

Other

0% 48% $0

Politics

0% 50% +$2

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes		+2	$1	66¢	$1	+$0	08-24 16:00
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No		-1	-$1	96¢	$-1	$0	05-18 03:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$4.9K	2,467	2,467	+0	No	-$2	06-19 09:13
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$4.8K	2,462	2,462	+0	No	-$2	06-19 10:44
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$4.8K	2,459	2,459	+0	No	-$2	06-19 10:54
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$4.8K	2,437	2,437	+0	No	-$2	06-19 09:53
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 18:45 UTC	1	$1.5K	3,000	0	+3,000	Down	-$1,500	02-09 16:30
will ethereum reach 4400 in february 2026	4	$770	128,289	128,289	+0	No	+$0	02-13 11:21
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 09:35 UTC	2	$8	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	04-13 09:39
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$7	12	0	+12	No	-$7	09-30 16:50
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	3	$5	8	0	+8	No	+$2	10-14 16:52
fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 btts	1	$5	8	0	+8	No	-$5	07-14 11:22
fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 btts	1	$5	10	0	+10	Yes	+$5	07-14 11:22
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$5	12	0	+12	Yes	+$7	09-30 16:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 04:45 UTC	2	$4	3	3	+0	Up	+$2	02-28 04:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 05:30 UTC	3	$3	3	0	+3	Down	+$0	02-28 05:34
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 15:25 UTC	2	$3	17	17	+0	Down	+$1	03-11 15:28
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$3	11	0	+11	Yes	-$3	04-11 18:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 15:35 UTC	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	03-11 15:39
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 05:05 UTC	2	$2	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	02-28 05:08
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	1	$2	5	0	+5	Yes	+$3	04-09 11:36
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 05:05 UTC	2	$2	2	2	+0	Down	+$0	02-28 05:07
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 06:00 UTC	2	$2	2	2	+0	Up	+$0	02-28 06:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 05:05 UTC	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	02-28 05:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 05:00 UTC	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	02-28 05:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 11:40 UTC	2	$2	4	0	+4	Up	+$0	08-15 11:41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?	1	$2	20	0	+20	Yes	-$2	05-30 16:22
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$2	67	0	+67	No	-$2	05-28 16:35
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals	1	$2	4	0	+4	Gujarat Titans	+$2	05-28 16:35
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	1	$2	4	0	+4	No	+$2	03-11 15:52
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	2	$2	16	0	+16	Down	-$2	04-26 14:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 05:25 UTC	1	$2	2	0	+2	Down	+$0	02-28 05:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 16:52:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xb9a7bc…
10-10 16:25:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	85¢	$2	0x7a50ec…
09-30 16:50:54	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	12	39¢	$5	0x5e4044…
09-30 16:50:45	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	12	60¢	$7	0xe6eb2d…
09-27 16:40:02	nfl kc mia 2026 09 27	Chiefs	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x3bdf7c…
09-17 16:12:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xf2b955…
09-05 16:10:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 7?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x756b62…
08-24 16:00:12	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x8d8ba7…
08-15 11:42:21	bitcoin above 64k on august 15 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x053845…
08-15 11:41:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 11:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6a9728…
08-15 11:41:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x7ad11c…
08-05 13:28:14	bitcoin above 62k on august 8 2026	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xf8660f…
08-05 13:28:02	bitcoin above 62k on august 7 2026	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x91602a…
08-05 13:27:51	bitcoin above 62k on august 6 2026	No	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x741501…
08-04 17:23:02	squid fdv above 100m one day after launch 392	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xdf305e…
07-26 10:50:25	bitcoin above 64k on july 26 2026	No	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x5ed42d…
07-21 10:17:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x90ef86…
07-19 14:34:28	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xbb8e35…
07-15 11:46:40	Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xa073a1…
07-15 11:46:23	Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x307cd4…
07-14 11:22:19	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 btts	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xf0ed8d…
07-14 11:22:08	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 btts	Yes	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x18a329…
07-12 14:22:02	Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xa1e039…
07-12 14:21:08	Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,090	0¢	$1	0x0a5a17…
07-03 15:18:47	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xf0baac…
07-01 16:55:29	Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xe9a3f4…
07-01 16:55:11	Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xfa7eb3…
06-19 10:54:23	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	2,459	98¢	$2,418	0x18656e…
06-19 10:46:23	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2,459	98¢	$2,420	0x6d104a…
06-19 10:44:32	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	2,462	98¢	$2,423	0x8bfd34…
06-19 10:38:58	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2,462	98¢	$2,425	0x27e338…
06-19 09:53:35	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	2,437	98¢	$2,398	0x2c0574…
06-19 09:34:41	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2,437	98¢	$2,400	0xa61851…
06-19 09:13:05	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	2,467	98¢	$2,428	0xf8b646…
06-19 09:07:34	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2,467	98¢	$2,430	0xd0ccd7…
06-14 06:39:42	Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xf24967…
06-02 16:37:33	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x9018a2…
06-02 16:37:11	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xff0e33…
05-30 16:22:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x67dffc…
05-28 16:35:31	Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals	Gujarat Titans	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xe4c77e…
05-28 16:35:14	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x4ef259…
05-24 11:28:45	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xf12134…
05-24 11:28:38	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x8debaf…
05-24 11:28:19	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xeb69a7…
05-24 11:28:14	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x0a804a…
05-18 03:41:57	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x86ab79…
05-18 03:39:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x33387a…
05-18 03:39:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xe16872…
05-16 12:04:52	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc70e7e…
05-16 12:04:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x62b719…
05-14 10:43:33	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc03651…
05-14 10:43:10	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd0de18…
05-14 10:42:34	BNB Up or Down - May 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x655f2c…
05-14 10:42:21	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd7f33e…
05-14 10:42:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xd82105…
05-14 10:41:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x15269e…
05-12 10:39:37	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xb36766…
05-12 10:37:41	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xd3cc77…
05-12 10:37:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xbafc23…
05-10 16:18:31	BNB Up or Down - May 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4e3d89…
05-10 16:18:24	XRP Up or Down - May 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3cf86f…
05-10 16:18:16	Solana Up or Down - May 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb76847…
05-10 16:18:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x79f79e…
05-10 16:17:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb77bf2…
05-08 14:04:55	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6e932f…
05-08 14:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfffd37…
04-26 14:13:38	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x61cdbe…
04-26 14:12:46	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x5c6e7e…
04-26 14:02:48	XRP Up or Down - April 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xbe0891…
04-26 14:02:04	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x1f6c30…
04-26 13:59:00	Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x94b736…
04-26 13:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xd6331a…
04-26 13:54:16	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x7094d5…
04-26 13:44:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xa3c882…
04-26 13:38:28	Solana Up or Down - April 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x40bac9…
04-21 11:17:52	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-21 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xb9dd3e…
04-21 11:17:28	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-21 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x97f7aa…
04-13 10:54:55	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:50 UTC	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x4cc741…
04-13 10:54:47	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:50 UTC	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1b23a1…
04-13 10:49:57	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x64eef5…
04-13 10:49:43	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x7a1b3e…
04-13 10:49:31	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x8921dc…
04-13 10:44:19	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:40 UTC	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd3a915…
04-13 10:44:11	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:40 UTC	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x54f480…
04-13 10:44:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:40 UTC	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0bdf67…
04-13 10:41:17	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xbdd1dd…
04-13 10:39:51	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:35 UTC	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x10412d…
04-13 10:39:35	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:35 UTC	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7a0da7…
04-13 10:39:23	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:35 UTC	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x654e5e…
04-13 10:38:57	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:35 UTC	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x84ec55…
04-13 10:38:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:35 UTC	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x1dd542…
04-13 10:38:15	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:35 UTC	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x40b4bd…
04-13 10:34:57	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x8620ec…
04-13 10:34:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:30 UTC	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x4619c6…
04-13 10:34:15	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:30 UTC	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x33a16f…
04-13 10:22:59	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:20 UTC	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x9c4c4a…
04-13 10:18:39	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf51798…
04-13 10:18:13	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xbc1a2d…
04-13 10:17:55	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xed1f53…
04-13 10:17:45	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 10:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x0c4252…