Distorted-Crook — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.96K

Unrealized P&L

-$38

Hit rate

94.7%

Resolved

1,205

Trades

2,950

lifetime

Volume

$1.07M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$361

Open exposure

$297

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-19 09:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 199 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 92% +$1,975

Other

4% 71% -$35

Politics

1% 30% -$19

Tech

0% 50% +$156

Sports

0% 31% -$105

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	+155	$146	88¢	$136	-$10	06-01 14:02
Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	+250	$102	33¢	$84	-$18	10-17 01:11
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	+100	$87	78¢	$78	-$9	06-10 14:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 92pt5k in june 2026	47	$8.0K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	+$16	06-25 08:59
ethereum above 2300 on april 3	3	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	No	+$8	04-02 21:27
will bitcoin reach 76k july 6 12 2026	35	$4.9K	2,436	2,436	+0	No	+$2	07-11 02:18
will the price of bitcoin be less than 62000 on march 19	2	$4.0K	4,000	0	+4,000	No	+$4	03-19 08:23
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 13?	13	$4.0K	4,000	0	+4,000	No	+$4	05-13 09:56
bitcoin above 68k on june 8 2026	2	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$2	06-08 15:43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April?	12	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	-$1	04-21 07:39
bitcoin above 66k on july 9 2026	2	$4.0K	4,000	0	+4,000	No	+$10	07-09 07:46
will the price of ethereum be between 2600 2700 on april 17	6	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	-$16	04-17 13:26
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	2	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$2	06-04 11:55
will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on march 23	3	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$54	03-23 16:12
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on July 14?	16	$3.8K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	-$174	07-14 15:30
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 29?	2	$3.4K	3,400	0	+3,400	No	+$5	04-29 07:02
will bitcoin dip to 58k march 30 april 5	1	$3.3K	3,350	0	+3,350	No	+$3	04-05 11:13
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 1?	2	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Yes	+$3	05-01 11:58
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11?	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Yes	+$3	05-11 10:06
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10?	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$3	05-10 08:11
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88,000 on May 10?	5	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$3	05-09 21:01
bitcoin above 76k on april 7	2	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$3	04-07 07:06
will the price of bitcoin be greater than 80000 on april 15	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$3	04-15 06:53
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7?	2	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$3	05-07 06:54
will the price of ethereum be between 2300 2400 on april 4	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$3	04-03 23:00
will bitcoin reach 80k april 6 12	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$3	04-12 09:34
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $70,000 on May 10?	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$3	05-10 01:18
ethereum above 2300 on march 5	3	$3.0K	2,000	1,000	+1,000	No	+$0	03-05 15:19
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 29?	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$6	04-29 07:01
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	1	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$6	05-31 11:47
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 15?	3	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$7	05-15 06:29
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15?	3	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Yes	+$7	05-15 13:35
bitcoin above 72k on april 3	2	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$9	04-02 21:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 09:49:33	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	150	4¢	$6	0xd38966…
10-19 09:48:06	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	SELL	250	68¢	$170	0x1be232…
10-18 15:51:21	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0xe03548…
10-18 08:59:48	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	61	16¢	$10	0x822e5d…
10-18 08:59:18	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x1aea94…
10-18 08:59:18	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	59	16¢	$9	0x10f86e…
10-17 06:40:06	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	250	67¢	$168	0xa76146…
10-17 01:11:42	Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	BUY	250	41¢	$102	0xd7bec4…
10-14 03:34:17	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	No	SELL	200	80¢	$160	0xa528da…
10-13 07:09:40	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	SELL	150	2¢	$3	0x3efb9a…
10-13 04:00:29	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	51	4¢	$2	0xfe9684…
10-13 03:59:32	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x324aa5…
10-13 03:58:05	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	49	4¢	$2	0xcad170…
10-12 14:16:09	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	150	0¢	$0	0x6d34bc…
10-12 13:24:27	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	150	9¢	$14	0x0c7918…
10-12 09:27:04	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	150	9¢	$14	0xe20121…
10-12 09:20:28	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	150	2¢	$3	0x0734cd…
10-11 05:29:24	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	No	SELL	56	57¢	$32	0x02e670…
10-09 16:07:44	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	No	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0xea69cb…
10-09 16:03:05	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	No	SELL	35	57¢	$20	0x47f988…
10-09 12:17:48	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	No	BUY	176	77¢	$135	0xa28957…
10-09 12:08:16	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	No	BUY	24	77¢	$18	0x4916a9…
10-07 18:19:13	Rain during the Singapore Grand Prix?	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x3ea206…
10-07 15:27:10	Rain during the Singapore Grand Prix?	No	SELL	45	75¢	$34	0x768f80…
10-07 12:47:14	Rain during the Singapore Grand Prix?	No	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0x86ec9e…
10-07 10:43:45	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	No	SELL	60	56¢	$34	0x513bdb…
10-07 08:48:56	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	99	69¢	$69	0x8897e1…
10-07 08:39:57	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	69¢	$35	0x55ef31…
10-07 07:57:18	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	69¢	$103	0x9d5967…
10-06 19:57:48	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	109	12¢	$13	0x6fcda7…
10-06 19:16:18	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x6814e5…
10-06 18:41:45	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?	No	SELL	100	66¢	$66	0x52127e…
10-06 18:39:26	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026?	No	SELL	15	72¢	$11	0x1d08ed…
10-06 18:39:24	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026?	No	SELL	39	72¢	$28	0x995c6e…
10-06 18:39:24	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x3fb278…
10-06 16:51:21	Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	2	80¢	$1	0x2b829b…
10-06 16:50:38	Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	98	80¢	$79	0x9a60f1…
10-06 16:39:29	Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x084dee…
10-06 16:38:50	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x3f0098…
10-06 15:08:02	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026?	No	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0x446019…
10-06 15:07:27	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x1ed1bd…
10-06 14:51:47	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xad283e…
10-06 14:51:47	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	40	56¢	$22	0x7c6be6…
10-06 14:46:51	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xb219d5…
10-06 14:40:59	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026?	No	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0xa28a7d…
10-06 13:55:01	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C or higher on October 6?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xc2196c…
10-06 13:37:31	Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	199	85¢	$169	0xc827d4…
10-06 13:10:19	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C or higher on October 6?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x59aefa…
10-06 13:08:40	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x291a9a…
10-06 13:05:18	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C or higher on October 6?	No	BUY	42	99¢	$41	0xa5c9db…
10-06 11:44:34	Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x0ebf78…
10-06 11:07:30	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	76	76¢	$58	0x681827…
10-06 10:53:19	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0xbbb4fd…
10-06 10:53:19	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	20	76¢	$16	0x92ba19…
10-06 10:24:09	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	86	76¢	$66	0xf99b4d…
10-06 10:24:09	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	14	76¢	$10	0xe6704c…
10-06 09:56:46	Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x5ff0fa…
10-06 09:13:48	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	19	12¢	$2	0xe6ba15…
10-06 09:13:48	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	131	12¢	$16	0x9c1448…
10-05 22:29:25	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0xf8fc18…
10-05 15:10:38	another fed rate hike in 2026	No	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0x8a8265…
10-05 14:39:29	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x4765e2…
10-05 14:36:46	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on October 5?	No	SELL	60	93¢	$56	0x4ebf4c…
10-05 14:34:52	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on October 5?	No	SELL	40	93¢	$37	0x922023…
10-05 14:22:59	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on October 5?	No	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0xbdd8dc…
10-05 14:08:34	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xbeab98…
10-05 14:06:50	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on October 5?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0xa4dd61…
10-05 14:06:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on October 5?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xfc2eb9…
10-05 14:03:59	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on October 5?	No	BUY	64	98¢	$62	0x158eee…
10-05 14:03:58	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on October 5?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xc1741c…
10-05 14:03:40	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on October 5?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xbb93f7…
10-05 14:02:49	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on October 5?	No	BUY	91	100¢	$91	0x0358f2…
10-05 14:02:01	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or higher on October 5?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xc2f7fd…
10-05 11:07:50	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc96247…
10-05 11:07:50	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	83	99¢	$83	0x1840d5…
10-05 10:47:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$7	0x73d352…
10-05 10:20:13	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa511eb…
10-05 10:16:49	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xaff918…
10-05 10:07:26	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	No	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0x03487b…
10-03 22:03:02	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	No	SELL	200	40¢	$80	0x985c3b…
10-03 21:52:13	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	6	49¢	$3	0xd6c8d7…
10-03 21:52:13	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0xd03225…
10-03 21:52:13	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x763a38…
10-03 21:52:11	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x0a0503…
10-03 21:52:10	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x4f8fe3…
10-03 21:50:04	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	54	49¢	$26	0xebe250…
10-02 12:35:11	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	No	SELL	100	63¢	$63	0x7d1444…
10-02 12:11:06	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	No	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0x39e123…
10-02 11:35:39	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	No	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0xcf2195…
10-02 08:02:42	Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	60¢	$24	0x8e2b11…
10-02 06:58:35	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 2?	No	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0xaf2d09…
10-02 06:58:20	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 2?	Yes	SELL	83	6¢	$5	0x3f8b68…
10-02 06:58:11	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 2?	Yes	SELL	17	6¢	$1	0xf4dd82…
10-02 06:35:36	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 2?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x66d0bc…
10-02 06:08:30	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0x38c55b…
10-02 06:06:20	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on October 2?	No	BUY	80	97¢	$77	0xb8bd50…
10-02 06:04:14	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 2?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6641aa…
10-02 06:04:03	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 2?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x794dae…
10-02 06:02:39	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on October 2?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x3f5bac…
10-02 05:58:41	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 2?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x4c694f…