Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$915

Unrealized P&L

-$686

Hit rate

52.6%

Resolved

184

Trades

1,787

lifetime

Volume

$108.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$61

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-12

last 10-29 21:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 76 days

Categories

Other

50% 28% -$341

Politics

31% 22% -$353

Sports

10% 43% +$6

Tech

7% 42% -$253

Crypto

3% 50% +$26

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 90 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	+200	$9	1¢	$2	-$6	10-16 04:50
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+0	$18	69¢	$0	-$18	10-29 17:31
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	+0	$659	3¢	$0	-$659	06-09 19:33
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+0	$2	2¢	$0	-$2	09-03 03:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	119	$6.0K	5,793	5,793	+0	No	+$17	07-19 17:34
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	51	$6.0K	5,100	5,100	+0	No	-$101	07-14 11:30
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	49	$4.8K	3,673	3,673	+0	No	+$6	08-28 02:11
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	13	$4.4K	2,801	2,801	+0	No	+$33	06-11 02:40
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$4.3K	2,393	2,393	+0	No	-$2	05-06 07:51
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	85	$4.1K	4,200	4,200	+0	No	+$18	07-22 14:59
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	3	$4.0K	2,312	2,312	+0	No	+$208	05-26 09:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$4.0K	4,478	4,478	+0	Yes	-$403	05-07 15:44
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	14	$2.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	-$15	06-02 11:38
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	52	$2.4K	7,433	7,433	+0	open	—	06-09 19:33
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	33	$2.4K	2,200	2,200	+0	No	+$7	07-20 18:39
Katana FDV above $50M one day after launch?	3	$2.3K	1,162	1,162	+0	Yes	+$20	03-19 14:12
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	8	$1.9K	1,012	1,012	+0	No	+$40	06-19 06:16
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	37	$1.9K	2,198	2,198	+0	No	+$2	07-24 15:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	8	$1.6K	1,774	454	+1,320	Yes	+$343	06-12 08:29
Will MegaETH launch a token by March 31, 2026?	2	$1.5K	740	740	+0	No	+$7	03-29 14:57
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	21	$1.4K	1,186	1,186	+0	open	—	10-29 17:31
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	32	$1.3K	1,226	1,226	+0	open	—	10-08 10:44
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	15	$1.3K	1,180	1,180	+0	No	+$8	07-15 21:40
starmer out by june 22 2026	15	$1.2K	1,100	1,100	+0	Yes	-$16	06-22 06:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	12	$1.1K	800	800	+0	No	+$1	09-02 09:34
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	8	$1.1K	900	900	+0	No	-$7	06-30 05:04
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	12	$972	1,260	1,260	+0	open	—	09-03 03:42
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	20	$963	765	765	+0	No	+$4	07-11 09:22
will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	11	$909	662	662	+0	No	+$0	07-14 15:23
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	18	$908	750	750	+0	No	-$28	08-20 10:08
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	31	$906	900	900	+0	No	-$66	06-19 13:08
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	6	$878	600	600	+0	No	+$2	06-12 15:02
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	13	$846	794	793	+1	No	-$15	07-01 09:58
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	17	$840	750	750	+0	open	—	10-22 14:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 01:13:45	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	SELL	60	72¢	$43	0x8a5614…
10-30 01:13:40	Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	BUY	60	71¢	$43	0x85aa52…
10-29 21:38:36	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	23¢	$12	0xa30d6f…
10-29 21:32:58	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0xd32f13…
10-29 20:35:13	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	SELL	150	22¢	$33	0x390cd4…
10-29 20:35:06	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	BUY	150	23¢	$34	0x471e6e…
10-29 19:06:13	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	50	41¢	$20	0xd0dadb…
10-29 19:03:36	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	50	76¢	$38	0xc56586…
10-29 17:52:10	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	76¢	$38	0xf8b264…
10-29 17:51:52	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0x4ad715…
10-29 17:51:40	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0xc17248…
10-29 17:36:59	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0xd31765…
10-29 17:31:35	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	195	71¢	$138	0xae0336…
10-29 17:31:35	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0xa9defc…
10-29 17:31:29	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	78¢	$39	0xed869c…
10-29 17:31:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	200	53¢	$106	0xc2141c…
10-29 17:31:20	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	200	73¢	$146	0x36842c…
10-29 17:31:17	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0xbc6e8a…
10-29 17:16:35	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x3cfd2b…
10-29 15:03:08	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	16	36¢	$6	0x7115d9…
10-29 15:02:31	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	34¢	$1	0xd86772…
10-29 15:02:22	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x6af790…
10-29 15:02:10	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	34	36¢	$12	0x0193a0…
10-29 15:02:02	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0x902556…
10-29 07:13:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	50	78¢	$39	0x0f813a…
10-29 07:13:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xae9cae…
10-29 07:09:22	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	24	24¢	$6	0x28a2cc…
10-29 05:05:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	72	1¢	$0	0x7340bb…
10-29 05:00:22	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	1¢	$0	0x5b3086…
10-29 04:59:07	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x29d5e0…
10-29 03:53:10	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	26	24¢	$6	0x0e3030…
10-28 20:02:28	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	SELL	60	72¢	$43	0xeac715…
10-28 20:02:22	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	BUY	60	80¢	$48	0x5de85d…
10-28 19:41:07	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	50	66¢	$33	0x2f32ac…
10-28 19:41:02	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0xa09038…
10-28 17:28:22	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	SELL	200	62¢	$124	0x511503…
10-28 17:28:14	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x918715…
10-28 10:37:40	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	200	71¢	$142	0x1b42d9…
10-28 10:37:32	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	200	72¢	$145	0x2d7b77…
10-28 08:57:34	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	200	44¢	$88	0xba6b64…
10-28 08:57:31	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	200	46¢	$92	0xb0cbc3…
10-27 20:30:41	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0xdbb04f…
10-27 20:27:20	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xad5100…
10-27 18:34:23	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	SELL	6	60¢	$4	0x4b7bf9…
10-27 18:34:09	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	SELL	194	60¢	$116	0x32814a…
10-27 18:33:59	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0x750fe2…
10-27 15:07:23	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	23	75¢	$17	0x236f66…
10-27 15:07:17	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	172	75¢	$129	0xd72260…
10-27 15:07:15	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x9f4bac…
10-27 15:07:12	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0xbdecbb…
10-27 14:11:03	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x07fb42…
10-27 14:10:54	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x80d762…
10-27 14:10:54	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x1253b2…
10-27 12:44:29	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	118	69¢	$81	0xf154cf…
10-27 12:44:29	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	32	69¢	$22	0x14acd5…
10-27 12:44:20	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	150	68¢	$102	0xc0fa2f…
10-27 09:01:17	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0xcabbf7…
10-27 07:23:32	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x9d3f70…
10-27 01:41:59	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	SELL	150	98¢	$147	0xeb4062…
10-27 01:41:51	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	BUY	150	97¢	$146	0xffe343…
10-26 19:40:06	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	35	81¢	$28	0x99a8c3…
10-26 19:40:06	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	15	82¢	$12	0x1abe3d…
10-26 19:39:57	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x53acf8…
10-26 19:26:20	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	14	25¢	$4	0xad0248…
10-26 19:12:57	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	46	27¢	$12	0x8050af…
10-26 12:56:00	Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	150	21¢	$32	0xbe93ba…
10-26 12:55:42	Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	150	23¢	$34	0xfc3903…
10-25 23:47:12	Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	19¢	$6	0x7d97a7…
10-25 19:40:23	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	SELL	60	29¢	$17	0x662750…
10-25 19:40:20	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	BUY	60	29¢	$17	0xdca942…
10-25 16:15:08	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x678a49…
10-25 16:15:05	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x7f9c47…
10-25 15:49:08	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	40	69¢	$28	0xc18034…
10-25 15:42:20	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x2d84ff…
10-25 15:40:54	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x4aed0e…
10-25 15:33:30	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x2798d4…
10-25 13:22:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	58	0¢	$0	0xe6a856…
10-25 09:47:03	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0x41a735…
10-25 02:14:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	40	77¢	$31	0xf8380b…
10-25 02:14:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	120	76¢	$92	0x077e46…
10-25 02:14:35	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	160	76¢	$122	0x324f00…
10-25 01:01:06	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x99bb54…
10-24 23:02:33	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	50	23¢	$12	0x493c58…
10-24 23:02:29	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x29a0fe…
10-24 21:29:33	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	SELL	100	37¢	$37	0x45b15b…
10-24 21:29:26	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0x13f0ab…
10-24 00:22:44	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x0fc364…
10-23 18:15:45	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	60	27¢	$16	0x42ccd9…
10-23 10:28:56	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	150	28¢	$42	0xa90e9e…
10-23 10:28:48	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	77	28¢	$22	0x6e8552…
10-23 10:28:48	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	73	28¢	$20	0x54a53b…
10-23 08:07:23	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?	No	SELL	100	37¢	$37	0x639b00…
10-23 08:07:06	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?	No	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0xe284be…
10-23 00:28:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	30	71¢	$21	0x63f8e8…
10-23 00:28:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	30	73¢	$22	0x06a2db…
10-22 18:32:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	53	9¢	$5	0xd02abf…
10-22 18:32:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	108	9¢	$10	0xd5e25b…
10-22 18:32:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	39	9¢	$4	0xba6877…
10-22 18:31:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0x3d5dab…
10-22 16:00:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	195	85¢	$166	0xf6ceb7…