Mellow-Fork — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$21.4K

Unrealized P&L

+$3.84K

Hit rate

64.1%

Resolved

338

Trades

3,303

lifetime

Volume

$315.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$96

Open exposure

$3.33K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 19:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 93 days

Categories

Other

76% 64% +$14,103

Politics

16% 67% +$5,866

Tech

8% 67% +$1,744

Sports

0% 0% -$266

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+1,500	$1,025	90¢	$1.3K	+$325	10-06 20:33
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+856	$671	94¢	$801	+$130	09-18 21:51
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	+962	$546	82¢	$784	+$238	09-22 15:17
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Yes	+400	$296	91¢	$364	+$68	09-19 12:38
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	+26	$20	97¢	$26	+$6	06-22 15:30
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	+1	$26	95¢	$1	-$25	04-29 07:07
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	5¢	$0	-$1	04-28 13:04
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	+0	-$3,098	93¢	$0	+$3,098	07-31 20:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	25	$12.2K	10,441	10,441	+0	Yes	+$4,898	07-27 16:15
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	52	$8.6K	15,100	15,100	+0	open	—	07-31 20:06
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	19	$7.3K	6,421	5,452	+969	No	-$690	07-30 09:30
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	12	$5.8K	2,220	4,103	-1,883	Yes	-$63	07-31 11:12
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	47	$5.6K	6,173	3,940	+2,233	Yes	-$1,265	07-13 17:40
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	5	$5.4K	4,647	4,131	+516	Yes	+$2,154	07-07 22:47
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	6	$5.3K	4,262	3,873	+389	Yes	-$262	07-26 21:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	16	$5.1K	37,726	37,726	+0	No	+$271	06-26 16:37
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	4	$5.0K	3,220	3,220	+0	Yes	+$387	08-12 07:25
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	42	$4.8K	14,000	14,000	+0	No	-$276	06-30 06:30
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	56	$4.7K	13,809	13,809	+0	No	+$1,405	03-31 17:58
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	11	$4.7K	3,614	1,554	+2,060	Yes	+$83	07-20 00:04
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	15	$4.0K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	09-21 09:33
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	18	$3.9K	11,000	11,000	+0	open	—	10-23 20:09
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	3	$3.9K	2,400	2,400	+0	Yes	-$126	07-05 18:05
Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	20	$3.9K	4,719	1,866	+2,854	No	+$1,024	10-02 08:50
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	7	$3.7K	7,000	7,000	+0	open	—	10-23 19:47
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	3	$3.3K	2,559	2,539	+20	No	+$172	08-13 09:43
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	8	$3.2K	9,914	9,914	+0	Yes	+$256	03-09 19:34
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	4	$3.2K	4,020	4,020	+0	open	—	10-01 22:14
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	793	$3.0K	8,005	8,005	+0	No	-$742	05-28 10:40
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?	27	$3.0K	3,820	0	+3,820	No	+$807	09-20 20:40
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	5	$3.0K	3,063	3,063	+0	No	+$93	06-25 15:37
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	16	$3.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	-$111	05-11 23:23
will spd win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	13	$2.9K	988	7,747	-6,759	No	+$2,101	03-17 13:31
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	11	$2.9K	4,332	4,721	-389	No	+$220	07-13 17:45
will germany strike iran by march 31	4	$2.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$64	03-11 23:25
will next claude mythos debut on the text arena leaderboard at 1500	3	$2.8K	2,992	0	+2,992	No	+$149	06-11 07:15
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	16	$2.7K	5,918	1,548	+4,370	Yes	-$1,515	06-12 16:28
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?	6	$2.6K	2,707	1,638	+1,069	Yes	+$1,135	09-06 04:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 19:20:09	Will BSW be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	No	BUY	64	88¢	$57	0xbd2fa2…
10-26 08:16:26	Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?	No	BUY	131	90¢	$118	0x10ec39…
10-26 08:16:21	Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026?	No	BUY	47	85¢	$40	0xc53427…
10-25 21:09:54	Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x9d8ded…
10-25 21:09:15	Will BSW be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	No	BUY	220	84¢	$185	0xbe4aa4…
10-25 21:08:06	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	SELL	732	8¢	$58	0xc1c431…
10-24 21:06:27	Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x98c153…
10-24 10:41:21	Will Vance peak at Category 4?	Yes	SELL	537	3¢	$15	0x292024…
10-24 08:42:00	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	SELL	527	26¢	$137	0x02c137…
10-23 20:09:54	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9,900	15¢	$1,493	0x3ff87c…
10-23 20:08:44	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	18¢	$18	0xb0f173…
10-23 20:02:36	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	17¢	$7	0x988220…
10-23 20:02:35	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0xc96b68…
10-23 20:02:35	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0x71df25…
10-23 20:02:32	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0xef7f49…
10-23 20:02:32	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	17¢	$5	0x8bc9e8…
10-23 20:02:32	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	17¢	$6	0x08e3b5…
10-23 20:02:30	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	17¢	$0	0xe436f5…
10-23 20:02:30	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x4714e1…
10-23 20:02:27	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xe1ab0f…
10-23 20:02:27	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9,856	17¢	$1,676	0x8b0f51…
10-23 19:47:09	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	66¢	$660	0x1e4758…
10-23 19:43:45	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	62¢	$620	0xae0adf…
10-23 18:57:26	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xc2c683…
10-23 18:53:35	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	BUY	173	80¢	$138	0x4dfaaf…
10-23 18:06:15	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	BUY	9	80¢	$7	0x96d80e…
10-23 17:54:29	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	BUY	150	80¢	$120	0xf78f8a…
10-23 17:10:08	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	40¢	$398	0xfea79f…
10-23 16:56:33	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	BUY	9	80¢	$7	0x8d8d5a…
10-23 16:56:20	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	BUY	17	80¢	$14	0x9967bc…
10-23 15:41:35	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	BUY	27	80¢	$22	0xb76a51…
10-23 15:40:00	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	BUY	23	80¢	$18	0x3adc8f…
10-23 13:46:33	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	BUY	29	80¢	$23	0xec3920…
10-23 13:20:32	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0xeece66…
10-23 13:20:27	Will Vance peak at Category 4?	Yes	BUY	347	34¢	$119	0xc9eb1a…
10-23 13:17:03	Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?	No	BUY	250	85¢	$213	0xc945ad…
10-23 13:14:39	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	BUY	526	17¢	$89	0x7140f3…
10-23 09:19:39	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	BUY	134	79¢	$106	0xb46ea7…
10-23 08:23:05	Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections?	No	BUY	510	15¢	$78	0xea0c6e…
10-23 08:21:50	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	No	BUY	71	79¢	$56	0x82bdfc…
10-23 08:21:42	Will Vance peak at Category 4?	Yes	BUY	190	29¢	$55	0x41d0d6…
10-22 22:09:02	Will ground beef hit $7 per pound in 2026?	No	BUY	96	72¢	$69	0x8ad5ce…
10-22 21:42:29	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,914	22¢	$1,301	0x37e831…
10-22 21:32:39	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	22¢	$19	0x9b89c9…
10-22 17:47:12	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,000	18¢	$550	0x2f2ff9…
10-22 10:32:14	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	177	50¢	$88	0xa07718…
10-21 22:47:26	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	99	65¢	$64	0x8e1eaa…
10-21 22:47:14	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	153	58¢	$89	0x8097a1…
10-21 22:46:57	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,063	61¢	$646	0x4f6121…
10-21 19:46:21	Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?	No	SELL	60	16¢	$10	0x28da5c…
10-21 10:24:06	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	BUY	426	27¢	$114	0x0047b6…
10-21 10:23:53	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	SELL	696	37¢	$257	0x138841…
10-21 10:20:45	Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?	No	SELL	1,480	16¢	$244	0x69cc86…
10-21 07:16:35	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in October?	Yes	BUY	200	23¢	$46	0x76dca0…
10-20 20:35:48	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in October?	Yes	BUY	172	22¢	$38	0xab8f3f…
10-20 20:35:00	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	576	33¢	$190	0x513019…
10-20 20:28:59	Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?	No	BUY	1,039	12¢	$123	0x04272e…
10-20 19:42:14	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	SELL	818	38¢	$311	0xa2b465…
10-20 18:01:14	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	SELL	560	42¢	$237	0xce5ae3…
10-20 07:14:34	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	SELL	2,161	0¢	$4	0x531844…
10-20 06:33:41	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0x723331…
10-20 06:28:52	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	SELL	5,287	0¢	$15	0xf21384…
10-20 06:28:52	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x6d4164…
10-19 12:26:32	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$1	0xf8505f…
10-19 12:26:32	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xe02bad…
10-19 12:26:32	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	400	10¢	$40	0xade427…
10-19 12:26:32	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0xa2139f…
10-19 12:26:32	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	280	10¢	$28	0xa1c3c7…
10-19 12:26:32	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	600	10¢	$60	0x892a08…
10-19 12:26:32	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x574dfd…
10-19 12:26:32	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	85	10¢	$8	0x51765e…
10-19 12:26:32	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	368	10¢	$37	0x4b7e3e…
10-19 12:26:32	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x324f7c…
10-19 12:26:32	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	138	10¢	$14	0x2e9f11…
10-19 11:58:29	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xe2753a…
10-19 11:58:29	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	210	10¢	$21	0xba6ff3…
10-19 11:58:29	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	215	10¢	$21	0x6c0527…
10-19 11:58:29	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x5bd1f0…
10-19 11:58:27	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	26	10¢	$3	0x6625b8…
10-19 11:58:27	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	25	10¢	$2	0x5495e2…
10-19 11:58:27	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x186957…
10-19 11:57:15	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	12	10¢	$1	0xf20671…
10-19 05:23:35	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	73	10¢	$7	0x9b6e83…
10-19 05:23:35	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0x93d7a6…
10-19 05:23:35	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	215	10¢	$21	0x653e03…
10-18 22:31:42	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x7ad7b6…
10-18 22:28:47	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	16	10¢	$2	0x5f4385…
10-18 22:28:09	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	166	10¢	$17	0x93cec4…
10-18 22:24:50	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	2,113	10¢	$211	0xbd0ba7…
10-18 14:23:08	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,477	22¢	$332	0xe6b8d0…
10-18 14:23:08	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,023	25¢	$256	0x5fc5ef…
10-16 14:58:04	Will Trudy peak at Category 3?	Yes	BUY	339	28¢	$95	0x524c1f…
10-16 14:57:52	Will Trudy peak at Category 3?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xf9e56e…
10-16 14:57:52	Will Trudy peak at Category 3?	Yes	BUY	22	27¢	$6	0xb27cc2…
10-16 14:57:52	Will Trudy peak at Category 3?	Yes	BUY	190	27¢	$50	0x7eceb5…
10-16 08:54:09	Will Trudy peak at Category 3?	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0xc66b80…
10-16 08:28:42	Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	SELL	837	37¢	$310	0x520abe…
10-16 00:47:43	Will Trudy peak at Category 3?	Yes	BUY	641	27¢	$173	0x9fa851…
10-16 00:47:42	Will Trudy peak at Category 3?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xed34d9…
10-15 23:30:45	Will Trudy peak at Category 3?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x579537…