Realized P&L (90d)
+$8.96K
Unrealized P&L
+$4.72K
Hit rate
73.2%
Resolved (90d)
146
Trades (90d)
776
3,339 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$98.9K
$322.8K lifetime
Avg / trade
$97
Open exposure
$8.10K
20 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-12 14:57
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 99 days
Categories
Other
76% 64% +$13,460
Politics
16% 68% +$6,116
Tech
8% 67% +$1,744
Sports
0% 0% -$266
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
68 active days in 12wk • peak 37 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +1,500 $1,025 97¢ $1.5K +$436 10-06 20:33
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Yes +1,502 $1,016 84¢ $1.3K +$246 11-11 15:56
Will SPD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? No +1,348 $1,152 90¢ $1.2K +$68 11-12 08:28
Will Linke be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? No +1,045 $720 95¢ $990 +$270 08-25 07:37
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +856 $671 98¢ $838 +$167 09-18 21:51
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026? No +656 $381 86¢ $561 +$180 10-28 12:56
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Yes +400 $296 98¢ $392 +$96 09-19 12:38
Will BSW be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? No +339 $290 91¢ $309 +$19 10-26 19:20
Will a hurricane make landfall in South Carolina by November 30, 2026? No +296 $266 97¢ $285 +$20 10-06 19:48
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +499 $321 39¢ $195 -$126 10-30 19:14
will futuro nazionale get at least 3 of the vote in the next italian general elections 20260609164706854 Yes +196 $116 90¢ $176 +$60 07-14 17:26
Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026? No +181 $164 96¢ $173 +$10 11-09 17:56
Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections? No +510 $78 28¢ $140 +$62 10-23 08:23
will futuro nazionale get at least 3 of the vote in the next italian general elections 20260609164706854 No +395 -$92 10¢ $39 +$132 11-12 09:03
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +144 $34 20¢ $30 -$5 11-09 17:48
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No +26 $20 98¢ $26 +$6 06-22 15:30
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027? No +5 $3 98¢ $5 +$2 10-07 21:13
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No +1 $26 96¢ $1 -$25 04-29 07:07
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +1 $1 4¢ $0 -$1 04-28 13:04
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +0 -$3,098 96¢ $0 +$3,098 07-31 20:06