Somber-Experimentation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$17

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$6.50K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$171

Open exposure

$101

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 10-14 12:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Other

84% 100% +$14

Crypto

13% 100% +$1

Tech

3% 100% +$2

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No		+55	$53	100¢	$55	+$2	10-14 12:09
will xrp reach 4 in october 2026	No		+46	$46	100¢	$46	+$0	10-14 12:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	3	$401	203	203	+0	Yes	+$1	06-16 15:08
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 320 339	1	$400	400	0	+400	No	+$0	04-07 13:27
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 120 139	1	$400	400	0	+400	No	+$0	02-06 15:39
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	1	$360	360	0	+360	No	+$0	05-08 12:01
will silver si hit high 190 by end of february 182	1	$359	361	0	+361	No	+$2	02-09 07:43
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 580plus	1	$325	325	0	+325	No	+$0	04-20 02:31
will moonshot have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 924	1	$300	301	0	+301	No	+$1	03-03 06:19
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	1	$267	267	0	+267	No	+$0	07-09 15:45
will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	1	$235	235	0	+235	No	+$0	01-23 02:50
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	1	$210	211	0	+211	No	+$1	06-09 13:12
Will Solana dip to $10 in September?	1	$206	206	0	+206	No	+$0	09-11 07:51
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	1	$200	200	0	+200	No	+$0	06-09 13:17
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 80 99	1	$200	200	0	+200	No	+$0	03-03 06:18
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 560 579	1	$200	201	0	+201	No	+$1	01-23 02:52
elon musk of tweets january 15 january 17 0 39	1	$200	200	0	+200	No	+$0	01-14 14:49
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	1	$183	183	0	+183	No	+$0	06-23 07:12
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 580plus	1	$180	181	0	+181	No	+$1	03-12 04:15
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$172	173	0	+173	No	+$1	05-16 08:01
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$162	162	0	+162	No	+$0	05-24 07:06
elon musk of tweets january 12 january 14 165 189	1	$160	160	0	+160	No	+$0	01-14 14:49
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	1	$150	150	0	+150	No	+$0	05-08 12:03
will the price of solana be between 160 170 on january 14	1	$150	150	0	+150	No	+$0	01-14 14:48
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$150	151	0	+151	No	+$1	05-16 08:02
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	1	$146	146	0	+146	No	+$0	08-04 09:44
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$146	75	75	+0	Yes	+$2	06-18 14:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	1	$145	146	0	+146	No	+$1	04-20 02:32
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	1	$115	115	0	+115	No	+$0	05-24 07:14
will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	02-06 15:40
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 120 139	1	$80	80	0	+80	No	+$0	04-07 13:28
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	1	$60	61	0	+61	No	+$1	06-23 07:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 12:09:41	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	55	96¢	$53	0x58806d…
10-14 12:08:54	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xb20906…
10-14 12:08:03	will xrp reach 4 in october 2026	No	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0x75d8ea…
09-11 07:51:25	Will Solana dip to $10 in September?	No	BUY	206	100¢	$206	0x1a3992…
08-04 09:45:24	Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x65ee72…
08-04 09:44:15	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	146	100¢	$146	0xaac4ab…
07-09 15:45:34	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	267	100¢	$267	0x55f77e…
06-23 07:12:01	Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	BUY	183	100¢	$183	0x24997b…
06-23 07:10:32	Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	BUY	61	99¢	$60	0x0495b1…
06-18 14:30:55	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	SELL	75	98¢	$74	0x8ddcb7…
06-16 15:08:47	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	137	99¢	$135	0xcfbcde…
06-16 15:02:26	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	99¢	$66	0xa8520f…
06-16 09:20:21	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	203	98¢	$200	0xa2db4c…
06-09 13:17:21	Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x0d077b…
06-09 13:12:43	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	75	96¢	$72	0xad434b…
06-09 13:12:06	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	211	99¢	$210	0x46591b…
05-24 07:14:06	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0x20a4f9…
05-24 07:06:27	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	162	100¢	$162	0x1e01c5…
05-16 08:02:05	Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	151	100¢	$150	0x8ec19b…
05-16 08:01:23	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	173	100¢	$172	0xd055b8…
05-08 12:03:18	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x427980…
05-08 12:01:50	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	360	100¢	$360	0xd71bbe…
04-20 02:32:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	146	99¢	$145	0x3a30dd…
04-20 02:31:56	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 580plus	No	BUY	325	100¢	$325	0x812698…
04-07 13:28:11	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 120 139	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xcfcf54…
04-07 13:27:13	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 320 339	No	BUY	400	100¢	$400	0x3eb3c4…
03-17 08:05:43	will gpt 6 be released by march 31 2026	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x4afdcf…
03-12 04:15:11	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 580plus	No	BUY	181	100¢	$180	0x3a0ecf…
03-03 06:19:21	will moonshot have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 924	No	BUY	301	100¢	$300	0x74ced0…
03-03 06:18:35	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 80 99	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x805989…
02-09 07:43:03	will silver si hit high 190 by end of february 182	No	BUY	361	99¢	$359	0x85f799…
02-06 15:40:37	will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xdb9a84…
02-06 15:39:33	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 120 139	No	BUY	400	100¢	$400	0xb10ca2…
01-23 02:52:36	elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 560 579	No	BUY	201	100¢	$200	0xd9d76a…
01-23 02:50:30	will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	No	BUY	235	100¢	$235	0x6549ad…
01-14 14:49:54	elon musk of tweets january 15 january 17 0 39	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x9b0042…
01-14 14:49:22	elon musk of tweets january 12 january 14 165 189	No	BUY	160	100¢	$160	0x8e0043…
01-14 14:48:48	will the price of solana be between 160 170 on january 14	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x36f864…