Bowed-Font — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$557

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

64.9%

Resolved

320

Trades

481

lifetime

Volume

$5.10K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$39

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 10-17 02:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 125 days

Categories

Politics

75% 70% -$600

Other

16% 64% +$35

Crypto

5% 63% +$23

Sports

3% 46% -$11

Tech

1% 75% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+26	$11	53¢	$14	+$3	08-26 21:18
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+17	$10	74¢	$13	+$3	09-28 18:41
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	+15	$7	30¢	$4	-$3	09-28 18:44
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+12	$5	30¢	$4	-$1	09-28 18:40
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	+4	$3	82¢	$3	+$1	09-28 18:43
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	+12	$3	5¢	$1	-$2	10-01 18:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	16	$1.0K	784	454	+331	Yes	-$423	06-15 15:55
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	4	$515	536	3	+533	No	+$24	06-07 16:48
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 3 569 213	1	$464	464	0	+464	No	+$0	06-04 02:53
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	4	$241	130	130	+0	No	+$6	06-14 23:45
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$170	100	97	+3	No	-$14	06-15 00:24
us x iran ceasefire continues through august 25	2	$126	65	65	+0	Yes	+$3	08-26 20:01
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	3	$119	159	0	+159	Yes	-$119	06-14 22:44
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	3	$113	116	0	+116	No	+$4	05-30 00:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$100	104	0	+104	No	+$5	05-10 16:42
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May?	1	$83	88	0	+88	No	+$5	05-27 22:11
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	5	$70	100	0	+100	Yes	-$70	06-08 22:26
Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	5	$52	26	26	+0	No	+$0	06-07 15:59
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	1	$47	48	0	+48	Yes	+$1	08-23 00:10
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	2	$47	38	38	+0	No	+$27	08-20 17:38
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$43	49	0	+49	No	+$6	05-25 22:14
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	2	$43	45	0	+45	No	+$2	06-04 02:52
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	1	$42	46	0	+46	No	+$4	09-20 17:04
Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31?	1	$42	44	0	+44	No	+$2	10-17 02:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	7	$41	57	0	+57	No	+$16	05-24 01:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$40	43	0	+43	No	+$3	05-22 16:04
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$39	40	0	+40	No	+$1	05-24 18:25
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	2	$35	32	11	+20	Yes	+$6	10-08 02:07
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	4	$34	60	0	+60	No	-$4	06-06 20:12
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	1	$33	35	0	+35	No	+$2	05-26 14:50
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	3	$32	40	0	+40	No	+$8	06-01 21:23
us x iran ceasefire continues through september 15	1	$30	38	0	+38	No	-$30	08-19 22:21
will wti reach 85 by august 10 2026	1	$30	60	0	+60	No	+$30	08-12 20:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	1	$28	31	0	+31	No	+$3	05-10 01:29
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	1	$27	30	0	+30	No	+$3	06-01 13:34
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	1	$26	27	0	+27	No	+$0	06-07 16:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-17 02:19:20	Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31?	No	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0x72507d…
10-08 02:07:35	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	42	23¢	$10	0xed58b9…
10-08 02:07:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x167670…
10-07 01:59:48	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on October 7?	No	BUY	9	72¢	$7	0x523038…
10-06 22:38:17	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 7?	No	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x6de4e4…
10-06 22:32:38	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x966e36…
10-06 21:44:24	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0xa8c383…
10-05 01:12:10	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on October 6?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x850354…
10-04 00:51:20	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x0559e4…
10-01 18:17:59	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his rally in Oklahoma?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x75f51f…
10-01 18:16:18	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs	Alliance	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x7cedb4…
10-01 18:09:24	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0xd70f64…
10-01 18:07:09	any of the cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime	No	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x0c3780…
10-01 18:04:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0xec0872…
10-01 18:03:17	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x7a641a…
09-30 20:39:41	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x257edd…
09-30 15:14:17	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on September 30?	Yes	SELL	36	29¢	$10	0x7ddadf…
09-30 00:27:47	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on September 30?	No	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x2a6106…
09-29 21:38:42	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on September 30?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x8f9141…
09-29 21:38:29	Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x7c85b7…
09-29 21:38:09	Will USD be between 2.5M and 2.8M Iranian rials on September 30?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x641f21…
09-29 21:35:06	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0xf9d85c…
09-28 18:58:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	SELL	9	86¢	$7	0xb6758d…
09-28 18:54:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x8cc3ea…
09-28 18:51:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xc90599…
09-28 18:46:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x47cb3b…
09-28 18:44:29	Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0x96b89a…
09-28 18:43:24	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	4	63¢	$3	0x795d35…
09-28 18:41:53	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x0f2832…
09-28 18:40:47	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xd9eb18…
09-28 18:28:38	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0xeb174f…
09-28 18:27:05	Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xbc18b9…
09-28 18:23:02	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x467d9b…
09-28 18:21:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x823f0b…
09-28 15:16:56	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 29?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x45b25a…
09-27 23:52:51	will patient zero hit 50m first week streams	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x951f56…
09-26 22:57:51	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x9bfb73…
09-26 22:52:41	Will Eric Trump post about $LAPTOP by September 30?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x759cd9…
09-26 22:49:50	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x690fc5…
09-26 22:32:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 22:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x7872d5…
09-26 22:28:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 22:25 UTC	Up	SELL	18	98¢	$17	0x3fa0db…
09-26 22:27:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 22:25 UTC	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x06609c…
09-26 22:24:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 22:20 UTC	Up	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x8e872f…
09-26 22:21:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 22:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x7adcbc…
09-26 22:18:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 22:15 UTC	Down	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0x18bcd6…
09-26 22:18:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 22:15 UTC	Down	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x8fc70d…
09-26 22:16:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 22:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x9b9b56…
09-26 22:15:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 22:15 UTC	Down	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0xa4d0c3…
09-26 21:47:48	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on September 27?	No	BUY	7	77¢	$5	0x0ec71a…
09-25 00:05:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 00:05 UTC	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x6aa938…
09-24 23:13:36	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xd9c73b…
09-24 22:40:20	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on September 25?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x9cc001…
09-20 17:04:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	46	91¢	$42	0x72069c…
09-14 18:46:51	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x9956ba…
09-14 18:46:43	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x263ce2…
09-14 18:45:31	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xf58d19…
09-12 11:09:27	Will the PLQ win 32-35 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xcdccbb…
09-09 12:18:03	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	35	27¢	$9	0x7ee766…
09-08 20:33:49	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xfe9c89…
09-08 02:19:42	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on September 8?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x8420e3…
09-08 02:10:58	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on September 8?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x87135f…
09-07 23:46:57	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on September 8?	Yes	SELL	1	31¢	$0	0x2cac3d…
09-07 23:31:33	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on September 8?	Yes	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0x2e0ab2…
09-07 23:22:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on September 8?	Yes	SELL	24	31¢	$7	0x245d12…
09-07 03:09:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on September 8?	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x47ab42…
09-07 03:08:45	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on September 7?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x0e49a2…
09-06 23:46:57	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xcd37b5…
09-05 17:23:12	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x255686…
09-05 16:09:52	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x284dad…
09-04 15:12:06	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x895538…
09-04 03:05:24	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5	Over	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x26b87d…
09-04 03:05:04	UAB vs. Illinois	Illinois	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x38809c…
09-04 03:04:21	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x2061e9…
09-04 03:04:00	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x10f095…
09-02 20:59:01	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xd4edad…
09-02 20:58:48	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x5bfd6d…
09-02 20:55:10	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0x578431…
09-02 20:55:00	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x05093c…
09-01 20:24:21	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 3?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x2281f5…
09-01 18:08:12	Will Andy Burnham say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the next PMQ?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe7db78…
09-01 18:05:48	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x0679db…
09-01 18:03:51	LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - LFL Playoffs	Karmine Corp Blue	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x5a1477…
09-01 18:00:12	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xb86580…
09-01 17:55:31	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x83d3f1…
08-31 21:07:33	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 1?	Yes	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x21a1d8…
08-31 01:30:39	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 31?	Yes	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0xb11987…
08-30 21:06:03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0x7712e8…
08-30 21:00:42	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 1?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x4332a1…
08-30 00:14:22	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0xcfbff1…
08-29 21:53:46	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 30?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x1e3d20…
08-29 16:34:22	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 30?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x182593…
08-29 01:27:31	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0xff54b1…
08-28 23:48:04	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0xa84d73…
08-28 23:47:24	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0x4e4592…
08-28 23:45:57	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xf78760…
08-28 23:44:51	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x06d87f…
08-27 21:45:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xa8b5c4…
08-27 21:40:43	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 28?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xe2be3d…
08-27 21:21:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 21:20 UTC	Down	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x4f2161…
08-27 21:18:04	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america in 2026	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x4bdc34…