Terrible-Producer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$481

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

21.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$939

lifetime

Avg / trade

$43

Open exposure

$155

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 11-04 03:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Politics

57% 22% -$245

Other

39% 20% -$196

Crypto

4% 0% -$40

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?	No	-109	-$102	96¢	$-105	-$3	05-15 12:01
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	+24	$20	98¢	$24	+$4	05-12 17:35
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+273	$30	8¢	$20	-$10	11-04 03:08
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-50	-$8	7¢	$-4	+$5	05-15 11:53
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-100	-$2	2¢	$-2	$0	11-04 02:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?	1	$102	0	109	-109	open	—	05-15 12:01
will israel strike lebanon on january 3 2026	2	$101	127	127	+0	Yes	-$99	01-03 17:49
nothing ever happens january	1	$100	133	0	+133	No	-$100	01-02 03:00
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	1	$90	0	91	-91	Yes	-$1	05-15 11:45
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$70	85	0	+85	Yes	+$15	08-19 00:50
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	1	$50	0	56	-56	No	-$6	02-06 22:57
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	1	$50	68	0	+68	Yes	+$18	05-15 11:51
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	1	$50	61	0	+61	Yes	-$50	01-02 02:32
israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by january 31	1	$50	56	0	+56	No	+$6	01-02 02:38
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	1	$40	58	0	+58	Yes	-$40	05-26 22:29
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	1	$40	93	0	+93	Yes	-$40	05-26 22:39
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	1	$40	44	0	+44	Yes	-$40	01-02 03:15
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	1	$30	47	0	+47	No	-$30	05-15 11:50
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	1	$30	273	0	+273	open	—	11-04 03:08
another us government shutdown by february 14	1	$30	44	0	+44	No	-$30	02-06 23:11
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	1	$26	0	100	-100	Yes	-$74	05-15 11:45
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	1	$20	24	0	+24	open	—	05-12 17:35
new 10 us blanket tariff goes into effect by february 28	1	$10	359	0	+359	Yes	-$10	02-24 00:12
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	1	$8	0	50	-50	open	—	05-15 11:53
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	1	$2	0	100	-100	open	—	11-04 02:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 03:08:18	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	273	11¢	$30	0x56924a…
11-04 02:58:28	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x3bb75e…
08-19 00:50:28	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0x9b4153…
05-26 22:39:17	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	No	BUY	93	43¢	$40	0x3e2986…
05-26 22:29:22	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	58	69¢	$40	0x613a6e…
05-15 12:01:34	Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?	No	SELL	109	93¢	$102	0x5aaa76…
05-15 11:53:15	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	50	17¢	$8	0xd3422a…
05-15 11:51:09	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x7bca15…
05-15 11:50:30	Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	Yes	BUY	47	64¢	$30	0xf5e39e…
05-15 11:47:11	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	51	79¢	$40	0x801c5b…
05-15 11:45:38	Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	Yes	SELL	91	99¢	$90	0xc5a1b0…
05-15 11:45:24	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	26¢	$26	0x61bf3d…
05-12 17:35:16	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x362c46…
02-24 00:12:38	new 10 us blanket tariff goes into effect by february 28	No	BUY	359	3¢	$10	0x14e643…
02-06 23:11:51	another us government shutdown by february 14	Yes	BUY	44	68¢	$30	0x0a4347…
02-06 22:57:41	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	SELL	56	89¢	$50	0x854c88…
01-03 17:49:19	will israel strike lebanon on january 3 2026	No	SELL	127	1¢	$1	0xfe3f7d…
01-02 03:15:45	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	44	90¢	$40	0xf2f6f6…
01-02 03:15:15	will israel strike lebanon on january 3 2026	No	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x5ae952…
01-02 03:00:45	nothing ever happens january	Yes	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0x329b0c…
01-02 02:38:11	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by january 31	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0xbe1117…
01-02 02:32:29	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x51752c…