Blaring-Depression — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$70

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.6%

Resolved

1,467

Trades

1,701

lifetime

Volume

$26.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 07-13 18:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Crypto

46% 99% -$24

Politics

28% 32% -$24

Other

16% 87% -$7

Sports

6% 25% -$10

Tech

3% 0% -$5

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-13).

Open positions Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	28	$1.4K	1,247	1,247	+0	Yes	+$0	06-12 08:27
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	8	$1.0K	600	600	+0	open	—	07-01 07:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	12	$827	817	817	+0	No	+$0	05-28 18:24
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	9	$598	500	500	+0	Yes	$0	07-03 19:55
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	6	$585	609	609	+0	Yes	-$22	06-13 15:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	4	$520	400	400	+0	open	—	07-07 01:40
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	6	$385	400	400	+0	No	+$1	07-08 21:04
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	4	$380	400	400	+0	open	—	06-12 14:52
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$340	200	200	+0	No	+$0	05-30 22:40
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	6	$340	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	07-06 16:52
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	2	$328	200	200	+0	No	+$0	06-08 20:55
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	4	$304	400	400	+0	No	-$8	06-02 13:53
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	2	$304	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-01 20:32
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$304	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-18 07:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	2	$264	200	200	+0	open	—	06-12 07:35
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$264	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	05-27 02:23
Fed rate hike in 2026?	2	$256	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-15 06:21
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	2	$240	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-08 07:21
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	5	$237	141	141	+0	Yes	+$0	07-10 11:49
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	5	$236	200	200	+0	No	+$0	07-02 03:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$230	400	400	+0	No	-$2	07-07 08:59
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	2	$220	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	07-07 22:29
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$216	200	200	+0	No	$0	07-01 18:07
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	4	$214	200	200	+0	Yes	+$2	05-21 18:25
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	2	$196	200	200	+0	No	+$0	07-08 11:52
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	4	$196	404	404	+0	Yes	-$10	05-25 15:39
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	4	$178	150	150	+0	open	—	06-17 20:02
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	5	$172	200	200	+0	open	—	05-28 16:21
will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	2	$170	100	100	+0	No	+$0	07-11 19:40
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	2	$168	200	200	+0	No	+$0	05-29 18:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-13 18:12:34	Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?	No	SELL	100	40¢	$40	0xad7ed6…
07-13 18:11:10	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	54	35¢	$19	0x6bb327…
07-13 13:24:34	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	206	28¢	$58	0x6d1c87…
07-13 11:58:28	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	SELL	13	73¢	$9	0x4e9407…
07-13 11:24:26	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	SELL	15	73¢	$11	0x574ef0…
07-13 10:52:37	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	SELL	18	73¢	$13	0x12ae0c…
07-13 10:20:08	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	SELL	16	73¢	$12	0xadee07…
07-13 08:29:41	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0x7d5a9c…
07-11 23:58:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	13	20¢	$3	0x695d73…
07-11 23:02:59	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	BUY	64	73¢	$47	0xbae0df…
07-11 22:30:47	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	200	13¢	$26	0xa24184…
07-11 22:16:50	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	11¢	$22	0xe982db…
07-11 22:11:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	13	20¢	$3	0x25a61e…
07-11 19:40:50	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0xf26bb5…
07-11 13:52:20	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xe11464…
07-10 19:30:10	Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?	No	BUY	59	54¢	$32	0xc3a348…
07-10 19:30:10	Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?	No	BUY	41	54¢	$22	0xac81c4…
07-10 11:49:25	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	66	83¢	$55	0x807416…
07-10 07:42:47	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	66	83¢	$55	0xa4f135…
07-10 03:31:19	Will Norway be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	50	18¢	$9	0x11d767…
07-10 03:29:41	Will Norway be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0x21bb93…
07-08 21:04:17	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	200	53¢	$106	0x82ea72…
07-08 21:03:56	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0xa7d663…
07-08 11:52:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	200	49¢	$98	0xfa20ba…
07-08 11:52:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0xce0943…
07-08 08:50:58	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	150	43¢	$65	0xc10c18…
07-08 08:50:55	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	18	44¢	$8	0x942eeb…
07-08 08:50:53	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	31	45¢	$14	0x92454a…
07-08 08:48:47	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	200	43¢	$86	0x96e119…
07-07 23:59:55	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	54	41¢	$22	0xc677dc…
07-07 22:29:58	Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	Yes	SELL	200	55¢	$110	0x8dcddf…
07-07 22:29:52	Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	Yes	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0x8c1cbe…
07-07 08:59:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0x11e040…
07-07 03:59:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0x680d5e…
07-07 01:40:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0xf9d0fb…
07-06 23:21:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0xa9f42a…
07-06 16:52:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	84¢	$0	0x6759be…
07-06 16:51:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	187	85¢	$159	0x4ec4bd…
07-06 16:51:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0x42d04b…
07-06 16:51:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xcac2a2…
07-06 16:51:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xc64776…
07-06 16:51:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0xff7125…
07-06 10:42:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	69¢	$138	0x41e8e4…
07-06 10:42:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x0cf5c7…
07-06 10:34:04	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xffa5d2…
07-06 10:33:28	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xc5be22…
07-04 13:37:58	Will T1 win MSI 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0xec54d0…
07-04 13:37:40	Will T1 win MSI 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xef71d4…
07-04 13:30:22	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	206	46¢	$95	0xa96683…
07-04 13:22:04	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	133	18¢	$24	0x06a196…
07-04 10:41:47	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0xd591dd…
07-04 08:24:53	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	18	19¢	$3	0x9b6c9d…
07-04 08:24:37	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	18	19¢	$3	0xfa30e8…
07-04 08:24:34	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0xa06d1f…
07-04 08:24:19	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0xdd1ce7…
07-04 08:24:16	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	30	19¢	$6	0x847931…
07-04 08:24:02	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x950c0f…
07-04 08:23:46	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0xf005c1…
07-04 08:23:43	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	7	19¢	$1	0x4adf9e…
07-04 08:22:08	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0xb67768…
07-04 08:21:08	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	Yes	BUY	133	19¢	$25	0xd67fb5…
07-03 21:46:47	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	Yes	SELL	59	29¢	$17	0x85a979…
07-03 21:46:44	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	Yes	SELL	1	29¢	$0	0x9652ce…
07-03 21:46:44	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	Yes	SELL	0	29¢	$0	0x7e782d…
07-03 21:46:44	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	Yes	SELL	2	29¢	$1	0x5fe1b9…
07-03 21:46:41	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	Yes	BUY	62	29¢	$18	0x9be242…
07-03 19:55:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	200	64¢	$128	0x2f5d45…
07-03 19:41:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0xbc9f93…
07-03 13:24:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	200	71¢	$142	0x4de2db…
07-03 12:32:49	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0x44b55f…
07-02 23:27:38	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	23	85¢	$20	0xdbfa4e…
07-02 23:27:38	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	52	85¢	$44	0x4bcbf2…
07-02 15:56:02	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	75	85¢	$64	0x1d8d5c…
07-02 13:27:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	70	27¢	$19	0x9e5283…
07-02 13:27:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	30	27¢	$8	0x0b9888…
07-02 13:27:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	28¢	$28	0x9020d2…
07-02 13:27:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	27¢	$54	0xceb71e…
07-02 03:48:25	Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	No	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0xf819df…
07-02 03:48:25	Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	No	SELL	14	59¢	$8	0xe7c65b…
07-02 03:48:25	Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	No	SELL	165	59¢	$97	0xd8a1e9…
07-02 03:48:25	Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	No	SELL	1	59¢	$1	0x6d030a…
07-02 03:47:58	Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	No	BUY	200	59¢	$118	0x1359e1…
07-02 01:38:31	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	63	74¢	$47	0x5e6ff9…
07-02 01:02:01	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	63	74¢	$47	0xca9421…
07-01 22:45:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	0	29¢	$0	0xd2434e…
07-01 22:12:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	69	29¢	$20	0x930fc8…
07-01 22:05:50	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0x7472df…
07-01 21:55:40	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	21	29¢	$6	0xf3f5ce…
07-01 18:07:08	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0xb03a1d…
07-01 18:06:53	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	83	54¢	$45	0x095ca4…
07-01 18:06:50	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	30	54¢	$16	0x5f2b5c…
07-01 18:06:47	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	3	54¢	$2	0xbfc964…
07-01 18:06:38	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	3	54¢	$2	0xb18d76…
07-01 18:06:38	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	76	54¢	$41	0x3e62c2…
07-01 18:06:14	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0x839028…
07-01 17:28:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x78cca4…
07-01 07:15:23	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0x382857…
07-01 07:14:11	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x9a6525…
06-30 07:30:32	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0x6d7c4e…
06-30 07:27:10	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x3b05db…