Decimal-Recall — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$403

Unrealized P&L

+$327

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

453

lifetime

Volume

$87.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$192

Open exposure

$4.38K

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-19

last 06-25 10:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

87% 100% +$385

Other

13% 100% +$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No		+4,000	$3,120	84¢	$3.4K	+$260	06-20 19:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		+1,000	$930	100¢	$998	+$68	06-25 10:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	74	$15.9K	8,974	10,000	-1,026	open	—	05-31 20:44
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	80	$13.2K	7,541	7,695	-154	open	—	05-31 21:09
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	21	$11.2K	8,400	8,287	+114	open	—	06-14 23:13
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	27	$7.0K	3,645	3,645	+0	open	—	05-31 21:53
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	12	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	04-27 14:58
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	48	$3.1K	4,000	0	+4,000	open	—	06-20 19:21
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	2	$3.0K	1,807	1,807	+0	open	—	04-29 20:02
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	8	$2.3K	2,966	2,966	+0	open	—	05-15 18:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	10	$2.2K	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	05-26 23:20
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	1	$2.0K	2,068	0	+2,068	open	—	02-27 18:24
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	1	$2.0K	2,043	0	+2,043	open	—	02-24 19:30
Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during April press conference?	7	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	04-29 20:58
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	6	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-23 20:51
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	1	$2.0K	2,013	0	+2,013	open	—	02-23 19:22
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	3	$2.0K	1,979	0	+1,979	open	—	02-19 20:30
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	7	$1.8K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	06-23 00:32
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	11	$1.5K	2,000	2,000	-0	open	—	05-29 18:04
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	3	$1.4K	700	700	+0	open	—	05-23 15:16
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	10	$993	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	06-22 23:33
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	3	$982	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$18	04-09 15:59
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	32	$940	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-18 04:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$930	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	06-25 10:37
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	6	$918	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	05-12 17:37
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	12	$860	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	05-13 22:41
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	12	$740	1,105	0	+1,105	No	+$365	05-04 21:26
Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Small Business Summit?	5	$680	700	0	+700	No	+$20	05-06 14:30
will trump say third term in march	32	$525	2,348	548	+1,800	open	—	04-01 08:31
Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference?	2	$458	619	0	+619	open	—	04-29 18:02
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$348	400	400	+0	open	—	04-04 01:14
Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during April press conference?	3	$230	500	0	+500	open	—	04-29 18:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 10:37:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0xf29ead…
06-23 00:32:35	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	41	88¢	$36	0x1acf58…
06-22 23:33:05	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	844	99¢	$838	0xd1e587…
06-22 23:32:04	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1,164	88¢	$1,024	0xeba6a5…
06-22 23:25:07	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x2e5dc6…
06-22 23:24:53	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0xdc1645…
06-22 22:51:59	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xda5aff…
06-22 22:45:56	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xaccbe3…
06-22 22:32:10	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x7c65b3…
06-22 22:11:26	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x241391…
06-22 21:40:28	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x227078…
06-22 21:23:55	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xee3f80…
06-22 21:23:50	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xce7513…
06-22 21:23:43	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xb49d69…
06-22 21:21:53	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8352f9…
06-22 21:15:07	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	14	88¢	$12	0xe76b64…
06-22 20:32:41	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	763	88¢	$672	0xfcd6c9…
06-22 20:20:58	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x6d136e…
06-20 19:21:55	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	565	77¢	$435	0x34abe2…
06-19 17:53:47	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	34	77¢	$26	0x82c282…
06-19 16:52:14	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x313ba8…
06-19 15:52:40	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x126b6a…
06-19 13:58:53	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	2	77¢	$1	0xa55c91…
06-19 13:10:53	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x3e6016…
06-19 12:52:53	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0xacec3e…
06-19 12:28:53	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	7	77¢	$5	0x512f42…
06-19 11:47:32	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0x75a71a…
06-19 10:21:26	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0xf51e27…
06-19 10:06:49	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xd6003e…
06-19 10:06:31	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0xe01ec4…
06-19 08:58:37	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0xd9b491…
06-19 06:57:56	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	15	77¢	$11	0xcfaaba…
06-19 01:34:40	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x0b0b40…
06-19 01:24:02	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xa20f18…
06-19 01:17:01	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	23	77¢	$17	0x931bc4…
06-18 23:57:17	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$0	0x9013e6…
06-18 20:30:25	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x41f0b9…
06-18 19:41:38	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xee56b4…
06-18 18:24:56	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$0	0xcd5290…
06-18 18:24:56	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$0	0x8386a2…
06-18 18:23:50	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$0	0x957bfe…
06-18 18:23:05	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	7	77¢	$5	0x69d7cf…
06-18 18:09:31	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x2d0535…
06-18 17:59:31	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xefa31c…
06-18 17:57:13	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x184d55…
06-18 17:51:38	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0x4282ba…
06-18 17:27:38	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x127753…
06-18 16:57:13	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	2	77¢	$1	0x632dfb…
06-18 16:23:01	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	43	77¢	$33	0xec5456…
06-18 16:04:01	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x594c4e…
06-18 11:51:59	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	14	77¢	$11	0x7b9c02…
06-18 11:18:35	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	250	77¢	$192	0x9b8b03…
06-18 10:31:13	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	15	77¢	$11	0x80e20b…
06-18 09:43:50	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x59ba81…
06-18 09:37:10	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xd0b2b8…
06-18 08:25:43	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0x378794…
06-18 04:17:49	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	17	47¢	$8	0x0020c1…
06-18 04:17:04	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	8	47¢	$4	0xa85624…
06-18 04:12:32	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	15	47¢	$7	0x6e0cfa…
06-18 04:05:44	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	69	47¢	$32	0xed18c0…
06-18 04:05:44	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	48	47¢	$23	0x857b32…
06-18 04:05:43	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	83	47¢	$39	0xdc93b9…
06-18 04:05:43	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	107	47¢	$50	0xb9cf20…
06-18 04:05:40	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	11	47¢	$5	0xd09e4b…
06-18 04:05:40	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	203	47¢	$95	0xbe9b36…
06-18 04:05:40	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	80	47¢	$38	0xb284f8…
06-18 04:05:40	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0x9ef749…
06-18 04:05:40	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	194	47¢	$91	0x2ea50c…
06-18 04:05:38	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	67	47¢	$31	0xcc68ad…
06-18 04:05:38	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	78	47¢	$37	0x4bb16e…
06-18 03:45:14	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0x075ce6…
06-18 01:56:26	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	99	47¢	$47	0x327a36…
06-18 01:56:26	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	79	47¢	$37	0x08104f…
06-18 01:56:25	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	84	47¢	$39	0xe62fad…
06-18 01:56:25	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	87	47¢	$41	0xcfa423…
06-18 01:56:25	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	67	47¢	$31	0x77c876…
06-18 01:53:10	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	38	47¢	$18	0x820948…
06-18 01:53:10	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	38	47¢	$18	0x14e220…
06-18 01:53:08	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x1cebe9…
06-18 01:47:41	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	87	47¢	$41	0xede37a…
06-18 01:47:41	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	69	47¢	$32	0xd9cd0a…
06-18 01:47:41	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	69	47¢	$32	0xc8e9b6…
06-18 01:46:25	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	62	47¢	$29	0xdaaebe…
06-18 01:46:25	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	81	47¢	$38	0x35a2e6…
06-18 01:46:25	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	81	47¢	$38	0x2c26de…
06-18 01:45:22	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x7ff4b4…
06-18 01:43:19	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0xb6b955…
06-18 01:38:02	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	32	47¢	$15	0xc693eb…
06-18 01:35:04	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xa695ed…
06-17 23:14:46	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0xae4359…
06-17 23:12:46	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x7971dc…
06-17 23:12:46	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	588	77¢	$453	0x020f12…
06-14 23:13:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	59	84¢	$50	0x9ed842…
06-14 23:13:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	71	84¢	$60	0x98c101…
06-14 23:13:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0xbe5861…
06-14 23:13:33	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	200	84¢	$169	0x041130…
06-14 23:13:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	608	84¢	$512	0xc7fd80…
06-14 23:13:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x083a64…
06-14 23:13:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	2,752	84¢	$2,320	0xdad4e4…
06-14 23:13:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	237	84¢	$200	0xc2b011…