Decimal-Recall — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6.59K

Unrealized P&L

+$359

Hit rate

86.6%

Resolved

Trades

598

lifetime

Volume

$143.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$240

Open exposure

$6.81K

11 positions

First seen

2026-02-19

last 10-24 15:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Politics

74% 70% +$4,005

Other

23% 90% +$1,933

Tech

3% 100% +$650

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	+2,000	$1,760	97¢	$1.9K	+$188	06-23 00:32
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+2,000	$1,820	92¢	$1.8K	+$10	10-14 19:06
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	+1,500	$915	94¢	$1.4K	+$502	08-05 20:50
New pandemic in 2026?	No	+521	$464	96¢	$503	+$39	05-23 02:41
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	+500	$462	98¢	$490	+$27	05-18 10:33
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?	No	+466	$410	95¢	$445	+$35	06-19 13:50
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+9,000	$133	1¢	$67	-$65	06-02 02:59
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+12,500	$125	0¢	$44	-$81	05-19 17:00
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+22,000	$176	0¢	$33	-$143	05-19 16:59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	+1,000	$140	2¢	$20	-$120	10-24 14:59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+200	$44	6¢	$11	-$33	10-24 15:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	27	$17.5K	12,000	12,000	+0	No	+$1,000	06-03 06:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	81	$16.3K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	+$2,437	05-31 20:44
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	32	$13.6K	10,150	10,150	+0	Yes	-$284	06-14 23:14
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	82	$13.5K	7,841	7,841	+0	No	+$716	05-31 21:09
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$10.2K	11,500	0	+11,500	No	+$1,335	09-16 17:24
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	27	$7.0K	3,645	3,645	+0	No	+$244	05-31 21:53
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	9	$6.6K	9,000	0	+9,000	No	+$368	08-02 00:25
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	52	$5.3K	4,000	2,500	+1,500	open	—	08-05 20:50
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	5	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	No	+$19	09-21 19:17
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	3	$4.0K	4,602	0	+4,602	No	+$650	09-14 20:42
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	12	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$46	04-27 14:58
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	2	$3.0K	1,807	1,807	+0	No	+$652	04-29 20:02
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	8	$2.3K	2,966	2,966	+0	No	+$689	05-15 18:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	10	$2.2K	1,300	1,300	+0	No	+$243	05-26 23:20
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	1	$2.0K	2,068	0	+2,068	Yes	-$2,043	02-27 18:24
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	1	$2.0K	2,043	0	+2,043	No	+$31	02-24 19:30
Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during April press conference?	7	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$16	04-29 20:58
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	6	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$12	05-23 20:51
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	4	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$16	05-03 09:01
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	1	$2.0K	2,013	0	+2,013	No	+$34	02-23 19:22
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	3	$2.0K	1,979	0	+1,979	No	+$19	02-19 20:30
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$1.8K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	10-14 19:06
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	7	$1.8K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	06-23 00:32
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	13	$1.6K	909	909	+0	open	—	05-24 00:10
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	11	$1.5K	2,000	2,000	-0	No	+$482	05-29 18:04
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	3	$1.4K	700	700	+0	No	+$9	05-23 15:16
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	10	$993	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$7	06-22 23:33
Will Steph Curry's next team be Golden State Warriors?	1	$975	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	09-23 02:57
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	32	$940	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-18 04:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$930	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$70	06-25 10:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 15:00:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	200	22¢	$44	0x698716…
10-24 14:59:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	1,000	14¢	$140	0x5932cf…
10-24 14:59:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	662	2¢	$14	0x34541b…
10-14 19:06:30	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2,000	91¢	$1,820	0x66aca1…
09-24 16:21:26	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	308	8¢	$25	0xa76184…
09-23 02:57:49	Will Steph Curry's next team be Golden State Warriors?	Yes	BUY	1,000	98¢	$975	0x8724f5…
09-21 19:17:39	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	1,867	100¢	$1,858	0xa01749…
09-21 19:13:21	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x4d37a9…
09-21 19:08:19	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x26bd25…
09-21 19:06:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	106	99¢	$105	0x32f521…
09-21 00:00:43	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,991	0x5eeb7b…
09-16 17:24:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3,500	87¢	$3,045	0x8c07a3…
09-16 14:05:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8,000	89¢	$7,120	0xee977b…
09-14 20:42:49	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	46	86¢	$40	0x4699d0…
09-14 20:42:48	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3,945	86¢	$3,392	0x0064d3…
09-14 20:31:28	Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	611	85¢	$519	0x940972…
08-05 20:50:48	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	500	91¢	$455	0x425ea9…
08-02 00:25:45	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xe6c4d2…
08-02 00:25:26	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x8db37b…
08-01 23:09:42	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	31	2¢	$1	0x0e5184…
08-01 20:41:35	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	1,967	2¢	$35	0xd98050…
07-19 16:55:24	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	807	88¢	$711	0xb841a8…
07-17 15:20:03	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	2,082	94¢	$1,961	0x73db18…
07-15 08:16:34	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	193	88¢	$169	0x428da4…
07-14 07:39:26	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	259	94¢	$244	0xd9e018…
07-14 06:48:08	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	2,229	94¢	$2,099	0xf3b0ef…
07-14 05:28:19	Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	110	29¢	$32	0x3ab1d6…
07-14 04:30:28	Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0xc18af7…
07-14 04:07:35	Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x39ea3a…
07-14 01:47:19	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	431	94¢	$406	0xf17e64…
07-14 01:20:14	Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x3bebd2…
07-14 01:20:13	Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	1,111	29¢	$322	0x6a7b94…
07-09 09:00:14	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	87¢	$870	0x6ad77b…
06-25 10:37:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0xf29ead…
06-23 00:32:35	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	41	88¢	$36	0x1acf58…
06-22 23:33:05	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	844	99¢	$838	0xd1e587…
06-22 23:32:04	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1,164	88¢	$1,024	0xeba6a5…
06-22 23:25:07	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x2e5dc6…
06-22 23:24:53	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0xdc1645…
06-22 22:51:59	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xda5aff…
06-22 22:45:56	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xaccbe3…
06-22 22:32:10	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x7c65b3…
06-22 22:11:26	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x241391…
06-22 21:40:28	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x227078…
06-22 21:23:55	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xee3f80…
06-22 21:23:50	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xce7513…
06-22 21:23:43	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xb49d69…
06-22 21:21:53	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8352f9…
06-22 21:15:07	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	14	88¢	$12	0xe76b64…
06-22 20:32:41	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	763	88¢	$672	0xfcd6c9…
06-22 20:20:58	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x6d136e…
06-20 19:21:55	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	565	77¢	$435	0x34abe2…
06-19 17:53:47	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	34	77¢	$26	0x82c282…
06-19 16:52:14	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x313ba8…
06-19 15:52:40	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x126b6a…
06-19 13:58:53	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	2	77¢	$1	0xa55c91…
06-19 13:50:50	Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	453	88¢	$399	0x13ae25…
06-19 13:10:53	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x3e6016…
06-19 12:52:53	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0xacec3e…
06-19 12:28:53	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	7	77¢	$5	0x512f42…
06-19 11:47:32	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0x75a71a…
06-19 10:21:26	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0xf51e27…
06-19 10:06:49	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xd6003e…
06-19 10:06:31	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0xe01ec4…
06-19 08:58:37	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0xd9b491…
06-19 06:57:56	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	15	77¢	$11	0xcfaaba…
06-19 01:34:40	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x0b0b40…
06-19 01:24:02	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xa20f18…
06-19 01:17:01	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	23	77¢	$17	0x931bc4…
06-18 23:57:17	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$0	0x9013e6…
06-18 20:30:25	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x41f0b9…
06-18 19:41:38	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xee56b4…
06-18 18:24:56	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$0	0xcd5290…
06-18 18:24:56	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$0	0x8386a2…
06-18 18:23:50	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$0	0x957bfe…
06-18 18:23:05	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	7	77¢	$5	0x69d7cf…
06-18 18:09:31	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x2d0535…
06-18 17:59:31	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xefa31c…
06-18 17:57:13	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x184d55…
06-18 17:51:38	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0x4282ba…
06-18 17:27:38	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x127753…
06-18 16:57:13	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	2	77¢	$1	0x632dfb…
06-18 16:23:01	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	43	77¢	$33	0xec5456…
06-18 16:04:01	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x594c4e…
06-18 11:51:59	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	14	77¢	$11	0x7b9c02…
06-18 11:18:35	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	250	77¢	$192	0x9b8b03…
06-18 10:31:13	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	15	77¢	$11	0x80e20b…
06-18 09:43:50	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x59ba81…
06-18 09:37:10	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xd0b2b8…
06-18 08:25:43	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0x378794…
06-18 04:17:49	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	17	47¢	$8	0x0020c1…
06-18 04:17:04	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	8	47¢	$4	0xa85624…
06-18 04:12:32	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	15	47¢	$7	0x6e0cfa…
06-18 04:05:44	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	69	47¢	$32	0xed18c0…
06-18 04:05:44	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	48	47¢	$23	0x857b32…
06-18 04:05:43	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	83	47¢	$39	0xdc93b9…
06-18 04:05:43	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	107	47¢	$50	0xb9cf20…
06-18 04:05:40	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	11	47¢	$5	0xd09e4b…
06-18 04:05:40	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	203	47¢	$95	0xbe9b36…
06-18 04:05:40	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	80	47¢	$38	0xb284f8…