Glossy-Insolence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$19.5K

Unrealized P&L

-$666

Hit rate

77.8%

Resolved

332

Trades

1,547

lifetime

Volume

$130.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$84

Open exposure

$6.32K

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 10-27 15:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 108 days

Categories

Other

46% 57% +$5,762

Politics

45% 69% +$9,567

Sports

7% 68% +$3,972

Crypto

1% 100% +$227

Pop-Culture

0% 50% +$133

Tech

0% 0% -$182

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	+5,003	$4,717	98¢	$4.9K	+$184	09-20 16:08
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+4,560	$2,143	30¢	$1.3K	-$798	08-13 11:41
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?	Yes	+157	$47	28¢	$43	-$4	09-15 03:31
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?	No	+20	$9	80¢	$16	+$7	08-28 22:23
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	+300	$64	3¢	$9	-$55	07-25 03:34
lindsay clancy convicted of murder	Yes	+184	$8	4¢	$8	$0	09-04 18:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump visit Arizona in 2026?	18	$7.1K	4,254	4,174	+80	Yes	+$856	04-13 05:35
Will James Fishback finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	10	$6.5K	8,656	0	+8,656	No	+$2,204	08-18 23:03
fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 goals lamine yamal gte1	34	$5.0K	6,737	0	+6,737	No	+$1,773	07-10 20:18
fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 goals kylian mbappe gte2	7	$4.8K	5,499	0	+5,499	No	+$660	07-14 13:15
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	2	$4.7K	5,003	0	+5,003	open	—	09-20 16:08
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	59	$4.4K	4,792	4,792	+0	No	+$1,128	05-15 17:05
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	9	$4.4K	2,222	2,222	+0	No	-$2	01-31 20:10
will trump say the state of the union is strong during the 2026 state of the union address 924	6	$4.2K	3,277	2,000	+1,277	No	+$270	02-25 02:43
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50?	28	$3.9K	4,811	4,211	+600	Yes	-$239	05-20 17:57
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 16 million 278	12	$3.7K	2,291	2,291	+0	Yes	+$804	02-16 04:40
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	8	$3.1K	2,503	2,503	+0	Yes	+$1,914	07-07 19:39
fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 goals lamine yamal gte1	13	$3.0K	4,050	0	+4,050	No	+$1,036	07-14 19:20
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 goals erling haaland gte1	17	$2.2K	2,979	0	+2,979	No	+$828	07-11 22:33
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	23	$2.1K	4,560	0	+4,560	open	—	08-13 11:41
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 15 million 268	8	$2.1K	1,445	1,445	+0	Yes	+$706	02-16 04:11
fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 goals amad diallo gte1	1	$2.1K	2,343	0	+2,343	Yes	-$2,052	06-30 16:23
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 goals lionel messi gte1	27	$2.0K	4,326	0	+4,326	Yes	-$2,013	07-07 17:20
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 goals lionel messi gte1	27	$2.0K	2,952	0	+2,952	No	+$999	07-12 02:49
fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals lionel messi gte1	5	$1.9K	3,074	0	+3,074	No	+$1,157	07-15 19:19
Will Jason De Puy come in third-place on Big Brother season 28?	1	$1.8K	1,814	0	+1,814	No	+$36	08-16 02:24
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	2	$1.7K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	-$40	08-10 20:51
will anthropic run an ad during super bowl lx	27	$1.7K	1,086	1,086	+0	Yes	+$476	02-06 20:02
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	26	$1.6K	1,365	1,365	+0	No	+$141	05-15 17:06
fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 goals kylian mbappe gte1	35	$1.5K	2,612	0	+2,612	No	+$1,111	07-14 19:51
Will Donald Trump visit Delaware in 2026?	20	$1.5K	1,849	0	+1,849	Yes	+$381	03-06 19:18
Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	3	$1.4K	1,432	0	+1,432	Yes	+$43	10-16 23:06
fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals jude bellingham gte1	3	$1.4K	1,760	0	+1,760	No	+$377	07-15 19:27
will the announcers say ronaldo during the portugal vs uzbekistan fifa world cup match 20260622180548690	1	$1.3K	1,313	0	+1,313	Yes	+$1	06-23 17:02
fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 goals romelu lukaku gte1	8	$1.2K	1,580	0	+1,580	No	+$337	07-10 20:29
fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 goals harry kane gte1	28	$1.2K	1,963	0	+1,963	Yes	-$1,179	07-01 17:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 15:22:35	Will the Republican Party win the IN-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	439	95¢	$417	0x455787…
10-26 18:31:03	Will Harry Kane finish in the top 2 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	70	92¢	$65	0xe66125…
10-21 23:26:27	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	129	94¢	$122	0x0fc9ec…
10-16 23:06:06	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Yes	BUY	1,000	98¢	$980	0x564da2…
10-16 23:03:00	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Yes	BUY	32	91¢	$29	0x119cb3…
10-16 23:02:39	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Yes	BUY	400	95¢	$380	0xa053b1…
09-22 19:36:48	Will Melody Morris be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 11)?	Yes	BUY	90	99¢	$90	0x5ea4fe…
09-22 14:28:58	Will Trump say "NATO" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x6b4674…
09-22 14:28:06	Will Trump say "Teleprompter" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	281	32¢	$89	0x8627a2…
09-22 14:28:01	Will Trump say "Teleprompter" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	283	28¢	$80	0x2d45ae…
09-22 14:09:33	Will Trump say "NATO" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	205	16¢	$32	0x6205a0…
09-22 14:09:00	Will Trump say "Stock Market" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	205	23¢	$47	0xbe15f1…
09-22 05:51:10	Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	44	0¢	$0	0xaa726c…
09-22 05:51:09	Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	81	0¢	$0	0x6baaca…
09-22 05:51:09	Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x689d4e…
09-22 05:50:34	Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x260a14…
09-22 05:49:40	Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	26	0¢	$0	0x17a0fe…
09-22 05:49:22	Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x739a1c…
09-22 05:48:54	Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0xf5f2ea…
09-22 05:48:54	Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,463	0¢	$1	0x4e13e7…
09-22 05:48:39	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,697	0¢	$3	0x3ec24c…
09-22 05:18:06	Will Trump say "Stock Market" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	222	26¢	$58	0x24518f…
09-22 05:17:57	Will Trump say "Denuclearize" or "Denuclearization" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	107	57¢	$61	0x455031…
09-22 05:17:42	Will Trump say "Teleprompter" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	148	30¢	$44	0x152f5a…
09-21 17:54:07	will trump say beautiful 2 times during his ribbon cutting ceremony	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x9d7e6c…
09-20 16:08:12	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	95¢	$946	0x378583…
09-20 16:05:30	Will the announcers say "No Good" during the Dolphins vs 49ers game?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xa390ab…
09-20 05:24:57	will the announcers say one handed during the dolphins vs 49ers game 20260921	Yes	BUY	675	15¢	$101	0x892490…
09-20 05:24:51	will the announcers say what a catch during the dolphins vs 49ers game 20260921	Yes	BUY	800	21¢	$168	0x2190c7…
09-18 00:01:13	will the announcers say what a catch during the lions vs bills game 20260918	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x5355d9…
09-17 20:09:10	will the announcers say one handed during the lions vs bills game 20260918	Yes	BUY	201	24¢	$48	0xb2d05a…
09-17 20:02:55	will the announcers say roughing the passer during the lions vs bills game 20260918	No	BUY	60	70¢	$42	0xf0af2e…
09-17 20:02:13	will the announcers say roughing the passer during the lions vs bills game 20260918	No	BUY	282	69¢	$193	0xa9d9ed…
09-16 18:24:00	Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during September Press Conference?	No	BUY	133	14¢	$19	0xc1dc14…
09-15 20:05:04	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,100	1¢	$10	0xd8c72c…
09-15 12:57:37	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	78	0¢	$0	0xfb3e12…
09-15 12:57:37	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xf15011…
09-15 12:57:37	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	0¢	$0	0xe298bd…
09-15 12:57:37	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xd76837…
09-15 12:57:37	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa5ecd5…
09-15 12:57:37	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x7ea607…
09-15 12:57:37	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	91	0¢	$0	0x45101d…
09-15 12:57:37	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x3569c4…
09-15 12:57:37	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	85	0¢	$0	0x2e9b7b…
09-15 12:57:37	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x20ff1e…
09-15 12:57:37	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x047924…
09-15 12:52:31	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	32	0¢	$0	0xfc0fc8…
09-15 12:52:31	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	95	0¢	$0	0xc0b4c4…
09-15 12:52:31	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x873e59…
09-15 12:02:12	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	155	0¢	$0	0xe9e317…
09-15 12:01:46	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xf44ff3…
09-15 11:58:01	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xfdf14f…
09-15 11:58:01	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xf50acc…
09-15 11:58:00	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x7df99a…
09-15 11:57:58	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0xafb36b…
09-15 11:57:58	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x341400…
09-15 11:57:57	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xdbf973…
09-15 11:57:57	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0xbd2775…
09-15 11:57:57	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x4e0e8b…
09-15 11:57:55	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xa5b383…
09-15 11:57:54	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xf4a03e…
09-15 11:57:54	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x910984…
09-15 11:57:54	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x5c35a3…
09-15 11:57:52	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xee396f…
09-15 11:57:52	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x9aab7d…
09-15 11:57:45	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x5a0032…
09-15 11:57:28	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xeb9249…
09-15 11:57:28	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xd00332…
09-15 11:57:28	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xcca68e…
09-15 11:57:28	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xc3c898…
09-15 11:57:28	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x6e393a…
09-15 11:57:27	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x7ee984…
09-15 11:57:27	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x42e8c1…
09-15 11:57:25	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x967c37…
09-15 11:57:24	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x3d43d9…
09-15 11:57:22	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xeef947…
09-15 11:57:22	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x2b0f74…
09-15 11:57:19	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x6e8c2b…
09-15 11:57:19	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x5392ef…
09-15 11:57:19	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0x37c042…
09-15 11:57:06	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xda6000…
09-15 11:57:06	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x99ae87…
09-15 11:57:04	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	97	0¢	$0	0x73d7c4…
09-15 11:57:04	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x238d1b…
09-15 11:57:03	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0xbb39d5…
09-15 11:57:03	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xb827c1…
09-15 11:57:03	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x7991ac…
09-15 11:56:58	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x526962…
09-15 11:56:55	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x63015f…
09-15 11:56:48	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x1dfd4b…
09-15 05:24:55	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x94eb9c…
09-15 03:31:31	Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?	Yes	BUY	157	30¢	$47	0x80b428…
09-15 01:09:22	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xb3ac9a…
09-15 01:09:22	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x0b9037…
09-14 15:17:58	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x1026b0…
09-14 15:17:39	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xe2adcc…
09-14 15:05:51	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xed0ccc…
09-14 15:05:04	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	33	0¢	$0	0xde244a…
09-11 17:44:01	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xaad5ff…
09-10 18:51:55	Will Trump say "Veteran" during his remarks in Arlington?	No	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0x0b775d…