International-Newsletter — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.63K

Unrealized P&L

-$534

Hit rate

71.5%

Resolved

416

Trades

2,431

lifetime

Volume

$138.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$57

Open exposure

$1.46K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 08-30 05:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 86 days

Categories

Other

72% 62% +$77

Politics

26% 48% +$4,775

Sports

1% 0% -$308

Tech

0% 100% +$86

Crypto

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 114 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	+4,500	$825	15¢	$653	-$172	06-15 08:40
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	-5,129	-$205	4¢	$-223	-$18	06-15 17:29
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	-5,605	-$448	3¢	$-174	+$275	06-15 17:29
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	+800	$324	19¢	$152	-$172	05-03 18:02
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	+2,000	$200	6¢	$130	-$70	07-14 20:59
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	+999	$180	8¢	$85	-$95	06-22 13:17
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	+1,500	$330	3¢	$48	-$282	05-29 15:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	10	$4.1K	10,263	10,263	+0	No	+$399	03-13 12:07
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	3	$2.7K	5,337	5,337	+0	open	—	06-12 15:50
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	29	$2.6K	2,118	2,118	+0	No	+$167	03-13 11:39
us forcibly removes khamenei from power by march 31	11	$2.5K	3,940	1,829	+2,111	No	-$51	03-01 01:56
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 5?	8	$2.1K	1,079	1,079	+0	No	+$31	08-04 15:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	8	$2.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$330	04-14 02:42
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	9	$1.7K	1,334	1,334	+0	No	-$64	07-16 02:14
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	8	$1.7K	2,598	0	+2,598	Yes	+$930	02-28 07:17
will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	2	$1.6K	801	801	+0	Yes	$0	03-06 18:10
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	4	$1.6K	1,074	1,074	+0	Yes	+$457	02-28 06:44
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?	9	$1.5K	781	781	+0	Yes	+$15	07-31 12:48
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	103	$1.5K	81,343	61,343	+20,000	No	-$575	03-25 23:26
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$1.5K	7,000	7,000	+0	No	-$593	04-08 00:03
will the us invade iran by march 31	29	$1.5K	8,347	8,347	+0	No	-$82	03-05 08:33
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on August 3?	14	$1.4K	729	729	+0	No	+$9	08-03 13:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	14	$1.4K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$893	04-08 00:08
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	3	$1.4K	1,011	1,011	-0	Yes	+$495	04-05 02:49
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	8	$1.4K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$616	03-01 03:46
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	3	$1.3K	24,022	24,022	+0	No	-$161	05-06 02:02
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	14	$1.3K	758	758	+0	Yes	+$191	02-28 06:52
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	4	$1.2K	20,127	20,127	+0	No	-$591	04-16 08:34
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	4	$1.2K	2,552	50	+2,502	Yes	+$1,322	01-28 04:57
fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 total 0pt5	2	$1.2K	626	626	+0	Over	+$25	07-04 00:48
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	7	$1.2K	2,924	2,924	-0	No	+$446	04-08 17:04
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 5?	8	$1.2K	611	611	+0	No	+$21	08-05 08:38
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 4?	4	$1.1K	576	576	+0	No	+$2	08-03 16:01
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 6?	24	$1.1K	863	863	+0	No	-$52	08-05 18:38
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 11?	23	$1.1K	656	656	+0	Yes	+$170	08-11 05:59
fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 total 1pt5	7	$1.1K	800	800	+0	Over	+$104	07-15 20:46
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 30?	9	$1.1K	555	555	+0	Yes	+$5	07-30 08:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-30 05:05:00	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 30?	Yes	SELL	69	3¢	$2	0x10ed83…
08-30 01:15:46	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	21	40¢	$8	0xe93c21…
08-30 01:14:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x262791…
08-30 01:12:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x6188c4…
08-29 08:37:00	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xf86a32…
08-29 06:09:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	25	75¢	$19	0xbedfbd…
08-29 06:09:27	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	75	29¢	$22	0xdcd8ac…
08-29 04:57:30	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x6e9e08…
08-29 04:56:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xc3a9fc…
08-29 04:52:40	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x5c3f6a…
08-29 04:30:43	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	53	19¢	$10	0x3fc5e6…
08-29 04:23:25	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xe9e20a…
08-29 04:19:15	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	48	37¢	$18	0x0e145a…
08-29 04:19:09	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x0af51b…
08-29 04:15:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x49f70c…
08-29 04:15:18	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x04a204…
08-29 04:00:04	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 29?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xa76aa3…
08-29 04:00:04	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 29?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x9ea28b…
08-29 03:57:34	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0x9630f2…
08-29 03:42:00	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x51755a…
08-29 03:37:42	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 29?	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x4fbed8…
08-29 03:22:25	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0xf4137e…
08-29 03:22:25	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0xd37401…
08-29 00:24:49	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 28?	Yes	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0xd8faf2…
08-28 20:45:55	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 28?	Yes	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x7d1f23…
08-28 03:44:25	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xecd942…
08-28 03:29:52	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	51	33¢	$17	0x0bd7f3…
08-28 03:21:42	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 28?	Yes	SELL	50	15¢	$8	0x514290…
08-28 03:20:22	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x15b0cb…
08-28 03:19:40	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	56	54¢	$30	0x485a05…
08-28 03:18:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 28?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x79f477…
08-28 03:18:22	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x4b0912…
08-25 07:55:46	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 25?	Yes	SELL	302	100¢	$302	0xce4869…
08-25 06:34:48	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	128	98¢	$126	0x516be8…
08-25 06:32:49	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x9994e5…
08-25 06:32:16	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xbe1bea…
08-25 05:42:46	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xdc2e1b…
08-25 05:42:36	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x6bc9d4…
08-25 05:41:45	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	45	86¢	$39	0xebb6bd…
08-25 05:25:39	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 25?	No	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0x8c2175…
08-25 00:07:42	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 25?	Yes	SELL	12	90¢	$10	0x35206c…
08-25 00:05:40	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 25?	Yes	SELL	48	92¢	$45	0x3f51d2…
08-24 23:39:21	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 25?	No	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0xd3a2da…
08-24 23:39:13	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 25?	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x0faa29…
08-24 23:37:46	Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?	No	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x09b126…
08-24 23:37:40	Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?	No	SELL	27	64¢	$17	0x74081c…
08-24 23:37:34	Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?	No	SELL	39	65¢	$25	0x4d22f6…
08-24 21:22:00	Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?	No	BUY	71	55¢	$39	0xf861de…
08-24 21:18:33	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 25?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x216670…
08-24 21:15:34	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 25?	Yes	SELL	34	86¢	$29	0x31dc48…
08-24 20:55:12	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x0c6a24…
08-24 20:55:09	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x3a2617…
08-24 20:55:04	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	67	74¢	$50	0xd045e3…
08-24 16:20:28	Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in China?	Yes	SELL	40	90¢	$36	0xa4de0c…
08-22 10:00:21	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 22?	No	SELL	68	100¢	$68	0x5d8d5f…
08-22 09:47:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 22?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x942b57…
08-22 08:52:52	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 22?	No	SELL	84	100¢	$83	0x44bd21…
08-22 08:32:43	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 22?	No	SELL	94	100¢	$94	0x276c98…
08-22 04:44:06	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 22?	No	SELL	27	91¢	$25	0x052263…
08-22 02:43:09	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 22?	No	BUY	27	83¢	$22	0x3a8898…
08-22 02:42:27	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 22?	Yes	SELL	26	17¢	$4	0x25338c…
08-22 02:41:57	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 22?	Yes	SELL	54	18¢	$10	0x54de24…
08-22 02:41:07	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 22?	Yes	SELL	38	19¢	$7	0xb6d54d…
08-22 02:37:58	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 22?	No	SELL	29	11¢	$3	0xe3d7e6…
08-22 02:02:55	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 22?	No	BUY	29	60¢	$17	0xfe2567…
08-22 02:01:15	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 22?	Yes	SELL	41	38¢	$15	0x3ea290…
08-21 23:23:13	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 22?	No	BUY	161	68¢	$109	0x40271c…
08-21 23:22:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 22?	Yes	BUY	117	27¢	$32	0x83740b…
08-21 22:13:42	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 22?	Yes	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0xf3d6fb…
08-21 22:09:37	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 22?	No	BUY	14	89¢	$12	0x8357ff…
08-21 21:58:43	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 22?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x505348…
08-21 21:50:54	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 22?	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x4ddd9a…
08-21 21:50:07	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 22?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x2cd58a…
08-21 21:40:00	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 22?	No	BUY	80	90¢	$72	0x58971f…
08-21 21:27:27	will tropical storm saudel make landfall in china 1787177922936	Yes	BUY	40	60¢	$24	0x2d0463…
08-21 20:40:16	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 22?	Yes	SELL	69	30¢	$21	0x73d1d2…
08-21 20:27:10	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 22?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x647a7a…
08-21 20:26:48	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 22?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0xe57ace…
08-21 20:26:48	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 22?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x847aad…
08-21 20:23:22	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 22?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x80923c…
08-21 20:08:09	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 22?	No	SELL	61	98¢	$60	0x42aab7…
08-21 20:07:25	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 22?	Yes	BUY	69	25¢	$17	0xf26d44…
08-21 20:04:22	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 22?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xad39bf…
08-21 18:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 22?	No	SELL	80	90¢	$72	0xdaa3eb…
08-21 16:48:51	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 22?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x0075be…
08-21 16:48:48	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 22?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xe3a545…
08-21 15:41:54	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 22?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0xf88ead…
08-21 14:46:06	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 22?	No	BUY	66	88¢	$58	0x354b8d…
08-21 14:45:52	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 22?	No	BUY	34	87¢	$30	0x699ac6…
08-21 14:42:27	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 22?	No	BUY	34	96¢	$33	0x10eb7b…
08-21 14:41:37	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 22?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x92aea4…
08-21 08:45:37	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 21?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0x0fa967…
08-21 06:32:39	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x572be7…
08-21 06:32:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xdcd4c2…
08-21 06:20:16	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 21?	No	SELL	13	4¢	$1	0x4726f1…
08-21 05:58:21	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 21?	No	SELL	13	85¢	$11	0xe6b33c…
08-21 05:56:42	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 21?	No	SELL	72	92¢	$66	0xb52a45…
08-21 05:56:18	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 21?	No	SELL	35	91¢	$32	0x2f4d9d…
08-21 05:56:01	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 21?	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x71fc9f…
08-21 05:55:54	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 21?	No	SELL	4	91¢	$4	0xc1de66…