Rewarding-Nonconformist — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$17

Unrealized P&L

-$20

Hit rate

99.6%

Resolved

Trades

4,856

lifetime

Volume

$30.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$947

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-03 09:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Sports

63% — —

Politics

20% 50% $-17

Other

17% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 440 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	-1,237	$-599	50¢	$-612	$-13	06-05 14:37
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	-193	$-186	98¢	$-189	$-2	07-01 21:41
Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	+154	$78	50¢	$76	$-2	06-18 17:24
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	+62	$58	95¢	$59	+$1	05-28 20:29
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	+22	$14	50¢	$11	$-3	07-03 09:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	4,275	$5.9K	5,598	5,489	+109	Yes	+$8	05-08 14:28
will the san francisco 49ers win super bowl 2026	34	$4.7K	2,554	2,432	+122	open	—	01-18 03:30
will the buffalo bills win super bowl 2026	90	$4.6K	2,755	2,397	+358	open	—	01-18 00:41
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	11	$2.6K	1,500	1,250	+250	open	—	01-21 15:55
will the chicago bears win super bowl 2026	46	$2.0K	1,250	838	+412	open	—	01-11 04:14
will the baltimore ravens win super bowl 2026	15	$2.0K	1,035	1,034	+1	open	—	01-05 04:34
will the philadelphia eagles win super bowl 2026	29	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	01-12 01:02
will the houston texans win super bowl 2026	20	$1.5K	750	826	-76	open	—	01-18 22:50
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	15	$1.2K	750	500	+250	open	—	01-21 15:35
will the green bay packers win super bowl 2026	13	$777	500	300	+200	open	—	01-11 04:24
will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	13	$710	500	345	+155	open	—	02-09 02:20
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	211	$599	0	1,237	-1,237	open	—	06-05 14:37
will the jacksonville jaguars win super bowl 2026	2	$474	250	250	+0	open	—	01-11 20:52
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	46	$332	340	318	+22	open	—	07-03 09:38
will the los angeles chargers win super bowl 2026	10	$295	250	53	+197	open	—	01-12 04:01
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	2	$186	0	193	-193	open	—	07-01 21:41
will cdu win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	4	$137	94	93	+0	open	—	03-09 15:58
Trump out as President before GTA VI?	7	$78	154	0	+154	open	—	06-18 17:24
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	1	$58	62	0	+62	open	—	05-28 20:29
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	1	$35	38	0	+38	open	—	04-16 06:28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$26	28	0	+28	Yes	$-26	04-09 11:17
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	1	$13	0	22	-22	open	—	06-19 06:46
US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?	2	$9	12	6	+6	open	—	02-27 19:18
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	1	$9	14	0	+14	open	—	03-25 09:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$9	17	5	+12	open	—	04-24 07:51
US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?	1	$9	18	0	+18	open	—	02-27 20:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	1	$7	18	0	+18	open	—	05-28 09:13
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	1	$7	16	0	+16	open	—	02-27 21:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 09:38:49	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	38	50¢	$19	0xda347a…
07-03 09:38:05	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	38	50¢	$19	0xfa431f…
07-01 21:41:58	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	97	96¢	$93	0x90fa4d…
07-01 21:40:38	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	97	96¢	$93	0xc4262b…
06-19 06:46:23	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	22	57¢	$13	0xfdb988…
06-18 17:24:20	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc63283…
06-18 13:58:23	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	9	50¢	$4	0x6390d3…
06-18 13:29:13	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x379780…
06-18 13:18:11	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	33	50¢	$17	0xa36e89…
06-18 04:55:41	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	3	50¢	$2	0x07a4ed…
06-17 18:51:10	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	1	50¢	$0	0xf70e21…
06-17 18:07:49	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	3	50¢	$2	0xb54ce9…
06-17 16:39:07	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x3173cf…
06-17 15:11:46	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xd8b9f6…
06-17 09:17:53	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0xb28a3b…
06-16 20:01:22	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	1	50¢	$0	0x76b7a6…
06-16 19:41:02	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x5f37df…
06-16 18:43:22	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	11	50¢	$6	0xe7e2e3…
06-16 18:43:22	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	9	50¢	$5	0x5522b7…
06-16 13:00:16	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0xb130be…
06-16 09:24:33	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x80e5fd…
06-16 08:35:31	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	1	50¢	$0	0x646da0…
06-16 03:51:27	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	1	50¢	$0	0xc3184e…
06-16 03:41:27	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x20eadc…
06-16 00:19:04	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xc135f5…
06-15 18:41:57	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	18	50¢	$9	0x2e1f56…
06-15 18:11:57	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x606d10…
06-15 16:47:55	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x781935…
06-15 13:36:51	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x34ba52…
06-15 11:03:10	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	32	50¢	$16	0xcef31f…
06-15 10:54:07	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	1	50¢	$0	0x3d10c6…
06-15 03:55:34	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	3	50¢	$1	0x227896…
06-14 22:32:49	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xea63eb…
06-14 22:32:28	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xe80285…
06-14 21:21:28	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0xc96779…
06-14 21:09:07	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x25e755…
06-14 20:59:10	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0xb4d79b…
06-14 20:48:48	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x2b7102…
06-14 20:41:07	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x8d411b…
06-14 20:38:48	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x0f353c…
06-14 20:24:09	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x324c9a…
06-14 20:14:07	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x2090b0…
06-14 19:29:07	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0xf5ff57…
06-14 19:29:07	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0xf4f0cf…
06-14 19:29:07	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x1029c5…
06-14 19:28:48	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x6ed182…
06-14 19:28:48	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x3484ee…
06-14 19:28:46	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x2436c3…
06-14 19:28:09	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0xd6f7c4…
06-14 19:28:09	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	81	50¢	$41	0x3a0ef9…
06-09 13:09:04	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0xb592c0…
06-07 15:18:58	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	24	51¢	$12	0xcbd913…
06-06 14:39:39	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0x93b532…
06-06 13:52:58	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	25	51¢	$13	0x711ce3…
06-06 12:05:18	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	309	51¢	$158	0x3be0cd…
06-05 14:37:12	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	289	49¢	$142	0x1ffdb1…
06-05 14:35:31	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	289	49¢	$142	0xd05f3c…
06-03 23:09:54	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x54d882…
06-03 22:52:57	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0x9d6745…
06-03 22:46:33	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x460ef3…
06-03 22:22:12	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x0df2a8…
06-03 21:36:33	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0xd29f1d…
06-03 20:26:00	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	6	48¢	$3	0x536c98…
06-03 20:19:49	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x6d1893…
06-03 19:42:27	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0x039fa7…
06-03 19:21:27	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	26	48¢	$13	0x20c677…
06-03 19:18:37	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x29ecde…
06-03 18:54:18	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	5	48¢	$3	0xc8d601…
06-03 17:36:28	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	99	48¢	$48	0x43b330…
06-03 16:36:46	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0x4e2ff6…
06-03 15:57:04	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x2d8ad1…
06-03 15:50:25	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x402deb…
06-03 15:30:55	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	46	48¢	$22	0xfdf5a9…
06-03 14:49:15	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0xe2de63…
06-03 14:27:36	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	3	48¢	$1	0xa27f64…
06-03 14:01:49	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0xdc2120…
06-03 14:01:11	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0x3daef1…
06-03 13:57:36	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$1	0x1809f1…
06-03 11:04:40	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0xf037c4…
06-03 07:49:57	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0xe9244c…
06-03 07:00:32	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	20	48¢	$9	0x2faaab…
06-03 06:00:52	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0x102641…
06-03 05:59:51	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0x27866a…
06-03 03:44:50	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0x6fcc00…
06-03 03:17:49	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	3	48¢	$1	0x5ead45…
06-03 02:44:27	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x870ecd…
06-03 02:43:14	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x6ee13a…
06-03 00:03:05	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0xc6bb96…
06-03 00:01:25	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x3623ee…
06-02 23:35:24	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	22	48¢	$11	0xdb7c90…
06-02 22:18:05	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x25f31e…
06-02 22:13:23	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0xd23ea4…
06-02 22:06:23	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x267ca0…
06-02 22:04:43	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0xaed204…
06-02 21:54:43	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0x3f4202…
06-02 21:50:43	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x385861…
06-02 21:50:01	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x61d5da…
06-02 21:42:28	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0x9e6550…
06-02 21:42:02	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x74938f…
06-02 21:39:01	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x12e157…