Fair-Constitution — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$32

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

84.6%

Resolved

Trades

204

lifetime

Volume

$11.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$54

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 06-02 02:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Other

65% 76% +$21

Crypto

30% 80% +$9

Politics

5% 100% +$1

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-02).

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump visit china by march 31	10	$362	183	183	+0	No	+$1	03-25 17:43
ethereum up or down february 16 12am et	3	$326	218	109	+109	Down	+$0	02-16 05:58
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	2	$300	161	161	+0	open	—	05-18 07:54
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	2	$300	150	150	+0	No	+$0	05-13 23:54
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	2	$300	150	150	+0	No	$0	05-17 18:03
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?	2	$289	150	150	+0	No	+$1	05-21 06:47
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?	2	$280	140	140	+0	No	+$0	04-22 15:07
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	2	$280	140	140	+0	No	$0	04-23 02:59
highest temperature in hong kong on april 17 2026 26c	2	$260	130	130	+0	No	+$0	04-20 03:16
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on May 1?	2	$240	121	121	+0	Yes	+$0	05-01 11:04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$240	121	121	+0	Yes	$0	04-22 04:02
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	5	$240	121	121	+0	No	$0	04-15 07:12
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	3	$238	218	218	+0	open	—	06-02 02:35
ethereum above 2200 on march 22	2	$238	119	119	+0	No	+$0	03-22 17:25
will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	2	$221	111	111	+0	No	+$1	03-16 02:09
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?	2	$219	112	112	+0	Yes	+$0	03-04 19:12
will ethereum reach 3400 in february 2026	2	$219	110	110	+0	No	+$0	02-25 05:11
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?	2	$207	108	108	+0	80k	+$9	01-31 17:13
highest temperature in wellington on april 16 2026 18c	12	$201	101	101	+0	Yes	+$1	04-16 06:20
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 6?	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-07 05:27
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	2	$200	102	102	+0	No	+$0	05-10 19:52
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$199	108	108	+0	No	-$1	01-30 05:52
highest temperature in nyc on march 27 2026 66 67f	4	$197	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	03-27 09:00
highest temperature in seoul on april 20 2026 15c	6	$192	100	100	+0	Yes	+$2	04-20 04:58
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?	1	$150	150	0	+150	Yes	+$0	05-14 07:30
highest temperature in beijing on april 21 2026 28c	5	$150	50	100	-50	No	$0	04-21 07:47
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	1	$140	140	0	+140	No	+$0	04-29 09:26
highest temperature in chengdu on april 5 2026 30corhigher	1	$125	125	0	+125	No	+$0	04-05 09:56
highest temperature in busan on april 4 2026 23corhigher	1	$125	125	0	+125	No	+$0	04-04 09:47
highest temperature in ankara on april 3 2026 12c	1	$124	124	0	+124	Yes	+$0	04-03 16:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 02:35:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	218	61¢	$133	0x27a93b…
05-26 03:12:33	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	77¢	$10	0xf8e5d3…
05-25 12:28:41	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0xc1c251…
05-25 12:25:40	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	76¢	$4	0xaaa3cc…
05-21 07:09:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x1a1016…
05-21 06:50:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0xaf20f8…
05-21 06:47:48	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?	No	SELL	150	96¢	$145	0x300cf0…
05-20 07:47:03	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?	No	BUY	150	96¢	$144	0x833f0f…
05-18 07:54:52	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	161	93¢	$150	0xb2f806…
05-17 18:04:15	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	161	93¢	$150	0x5ba544…
05-17 18:03:51	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	No	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0x773baf…
05-16 09:58:45	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x955fde…
05-14 07:30:39	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x9b23f2…
05-13 23:54:08	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0x2ba755…
05-11 07:27:41	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xd27bdd…
05-10 19:52:42	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0xcd2657…
05-09 08:34:35	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xed5a14…
05-07 05:59:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0xc5a96e…
05-07 05:27:43	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 6?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xcb9048…
05-07 04:48:12	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 6?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x6aa2ae…
05-06 07:19:12	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 6?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x9838f2…
05-06 05:56:34	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 6?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x173f46…
05-06 05:49:04	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 6?	Yes	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0xb7e121…
05-05 06:21:24	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	76	32¢	$24	0x096a44…
05-05 04:43:52	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0x3ec840…
05-05 04:40:26	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0x88a68f…
05-05 04:40:10	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0x6d85e9…
05-05 04:38:54	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0x5dca9e…
05-05 04:38:14	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x79ec00…
05-03 13:36:20	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on May 3?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0xa420a6…
05-02 17:41:50	Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on May 2?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xe71e04…
05-01 11:04:22	Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on May 1?	Yes	SELL	121	100¢	$120	0xefcf60…
05-01 08:04:42	Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	121	99¢	$120	0x6113ac…
04-29 09:26:40	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x95f22d…
04-24 09:54:54	highest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 28corhigher	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0xb5e6cf…
04-24 09:28:14	lowest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 11c	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x097cfd…
04-24 09:27:34	lowest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 11c	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xea83ea…
04-24 09:27:34	lowest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 11c	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xe461ed…
04-24 09:27:34	lowest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 11c	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb25d1a…
04-24 09:27:34	lowest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 11c	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x68d2e5…
04-24 04:56:28	lowest temperature in miami on april 23 2026 70 71f	Yes	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x8ea089…
04-24 04:45:08	lowest temperature in miami on april 23 2026 70 71f	Yes	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x292834…
04-23 05:48:04	highest temperature in istanbul on april 23 2026 10c	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xa72cb2…
04-23 02:59:34	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	SELL	140	100¢	$140	0x2426b1…
04-22 15:12:16	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0xc0a7bc…
04-22 15:07:32	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?	No	SELL	140	100¢	$140	0xeac1cf…
04-22 07:02:58	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x1e5b38…
04-22 05:07:54	lowest temperature in shanghai on april 22 2026 14c	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x66aa4e…
04-22 04:59:42	lowest temperature in shanghai on april 22 2026 14c	Yes	SELL	45	98¢	$44	0x1557e8…
04-22 04:58:08	lowest temperature in shanghai on april 22 2026 14c	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x777f79…
04-22 04:02:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	121	99¢	$120	0x8d4a8f…
04-21 09:04:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	121	99¢	$120	0xe1f12a…
04-21 07:47:08	highest temperature in beijing on april 21 2026 28c	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xe44628…
04-21 07:47:08	highest temperature in beijing on april 21 2026 28c	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x62f881…
04-21 07:47:06	highest temperature in beijing on april 21 2026 28c	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x1da96c…
04-21 07:29:52	highest temperature in beijing on april 21 2026 28c	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x0296e0…
04-21 07:29:18	highest temperature in beijing on april 21 2026 28c	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x77c71e…
04-20 04:58:22	highest temperature in seoul on april 20 2026 15c	Yes	SELL	33	97¢	$32	0x2d5b10…
04-20 04:56:52	highest temperature in jeddah on april 20 2026 30c	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x29257b…
04-20 04:50:48	highest temperature in seoul on april 20 2026 15c	Yes	SELL	17	97¢	$16	0xb3fe1c…
04-20 04:37:08	highest temperature in seoul on april 20 2026 15c	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x0965c4…
04-20 04:29:32	highest temperature in seoul on april 20 2026 15c	Yes	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0xdf535b…
04-20 04:16:10	highest temperature in seoul on april 20 2026 15c	Yes	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0xd97246…
04-20 04:15:36	highest temperature in seoul on april 20 2026 15c	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xd971fb…
04-20 03:16:24	highest temperature in hong kong on april 17 2026 26c	No	SELL	130	100¢	$130	0x627a1a…
04-17 05:06:04	highest temperature in hong kong on april 17 2026 26c	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x87a3da…
04-16 06:20:10	highest temperature in wellington on april 16 2026 18c	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x2ae18e…
04-16 06:19:32	highest temperature in wellington on april 16 2026 18c	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xda78f8…
04-16 06:19:32	highest temperature in wellington on april 16 2026 18c	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xc7ae66…
04-16 06:19:32	highest temperature in wellington on april 16 2026 18c	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xaca5c6…
04-16 06:19:32	highest temperature in wellington on april 16 2026 18c	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x7155c9…
04-16 06:19:32	highest temperature in wellington on april 16 2026 18c	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x4d5c98…
04-16 06:19:32	highest temperature in wellington on april 16 2026 18c	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x47f49c…
04-16 06:19:32	highest temperature in wellington on april 16 2026 18c	Yes	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0x03488b…
04-16 06:18:34	highest temperature in wellington on april 16 2026 18c	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x175c42…
04-16 06:06:54	highest temperature in wellington on april 16 2026 18c	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7ceb64…
04-16 06:06:32	highest temperature in wellington on april 16 2026 18c	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc2b391…
04-16 05:31:20	highest temperature in wellington on april 16 2026 18c	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x82b694…
04-15 09:22:18	highest temperature in guangzhou on april 15 2026 32c	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x0c12e7…
04-15 08:36:24	highest temperature in london on april 15 2026 14c	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x4787b1…
04-15 07:12:02	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	No	SELL	66	99¢	$65	0x61b921…
04-15 06:53:58	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x323592…
04-15 06:53:58	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x03f1f3…
04-15 06:48:10	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	No	SELL	55	99¢	$54	0x6414bd…
04-15 03:47:20	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	No	BUY	121	99¢	$120	0xbd20a0…
04-13 18:14:11	highest temperature in milan on april 13 2026 15c	Yes	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x097c2d…
04-12 04:43:45	highest temperature in hong kong on april 12 2026 25c	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x81162a…
04-12 04:36:13	highest temperature in madrid on april 12 2026 16c	Yes	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x52752b…
04-12 04:11:07	highest temperature in madrid on april 12 2026 16c	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xa2da73…
04-11 14:49:41	highest temperature in amsterdam on april 11 2026 19c	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x073b96…
04-05 09:56:51	highest temperature in chengdu on april 5 2026 30corhigher	No	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0xd33957…
04-04 09:47:41	highest temperature in busan on april 4 2026 23corhigher	No	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0xd5e75b…
04-03 16:24:23	highest temperature in ankara on april 3 2026 12c	Yes	BUY	124	100¢	$124	0x4aae55…
04-03 13:23:45	highest temperature in ankara on april 3 2026 13c	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x6a621d…
04-03 13:22:07	highest temperature in ankara on april 3 2026 13c	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x10ad24…
04-03 13:21:41	highest temperature in ankara on april 3 2026 13c	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x0d251e…
04-03 13:21:33	highest temperature in ankara on april 3 2026 13c	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x252f1d…
04-03 13:19:47	highest temperature in ankara on april 3 2026 13c	No	SELL	25	97¢	$24	0x80d034…
04-03 13:05:59	highest temperature in ankara on april 3 2026 13c	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0xa468b5…
04-02 05:32:19	highest temperature in seoul on april 2 2026 16corhigher	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xd611d1…