Realized P&L (7d)
-$69
Unrealized P&L
-$33
Hit rate
39.8%
Resolved (7d)
99
Trades (7d)
1,745
10,358 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$18.7K
$107.8K lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$151
16 positions
First seen
2026-07-31
last 10-29 11:01
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 67 days
Categories
Other
66% 23% -$726
Politics
21% 27% -$184
Sports
9% 24% -$38
Tech
3% 20% -$95
Pop-Culture
1% 50% -$5
Crypto
0% 0% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 509 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? Yes +30 $21 94¢ $28 +$8 09-04 12:58
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +30 $4 84¢ $25 +$21 08-07 17:35
Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? No +35 $11 54¢ $19 +$7 08-30 21:29
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Yes +95 $36 17¢ $16 -$20 10-05 18:22
Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? Yes +35 $29 46¢ $16 -$13 09-25 23:37
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Yes +21 $9 72¢ $15 +$6 09-03 23:34
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? No +11 $6 99¢ $11 +$5 09-04 00:25
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +8 $7 92¢ $8 +$1 09-16 07:12
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? No +21 $8 28¢ $6 -$2 09-03 23:30
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes +30 $25 16¢ $5 -$20 08-08 14:11
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? No +30 $18 6¢ $2 -$16 09-02 05:19
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes +8 $0 8¢ $1 +$0 09-16 00:01
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? Yes +40 $0 1¢ $1 +$0 10-11 07:47
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes +1 $1 21¢ $0 -$1 09-23 23:46
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +11 $6 1¢ $0 -$6 08-28 10:54
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? No +0 $4 86¢ $0 -$3 10-01 03:39