Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$299

Unrealized P&L

-$8

Hit rate

38.9%

Resolved

996

Trades

12,497

lifetime

Volume

$8.69K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$18

28 positions

First seen

2026-08-18

last 10-27 21:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 61 days

Categories

Other

58% 18% -$175

Politics

32% 12% -$112

Tech

7% 26% +$1

Crypto

1% 14% -$15

Pop-Culture

1% 0% -$1

Sports

1% 10% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 1542 trades/day

Open positions (28) Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	+5	$3	95¢	$5	+$2	10-18 15:01
Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	+9	$4	48¢	$4	+$0	10-25 23:39
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	+4	-$2	72¢	$3	+$5	09-26 14:32
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	+3	-$5	73¢	$2	+$7	10-23 02:03
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+4	$2	24¢	$1	-$2	09-04 19:00
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	Yes	+0	$1	98¢	$0	-$1	08-29 12:00
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	Yes	+0	$0	99¢	$0	+$0	08-19 20:16
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	+0	$1	96¢	$0	$0	08-19 03:11
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?	No	+0	$0	86¢	$0	+$0	08-20 09:41
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$1	87¢	$0	-$1	09-22 19:40
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	No	+0	$1	60¢	$0	-$1	08-26 01:32
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+0	$0	60¢	$0	$0	10-02 15:11
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1	$3	13¢	$0	-$3	09-26 15:35
tesla and spacex merger officially announced by june 30 2027	Yes	+0	$0	52¢	$0	$0	08-21 02:22
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?	No	+0	$0	36¢	$0	$0	10-22 05:44
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	No	+0	$1	36¢	$0	-$1	10-17 05:15
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	No	+0	$0	18¢	$0	$0	08-22 19:45
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$1	26¢	$0	-$1	10-03 20:40
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	27¢	$0	$0	10-25 10:56
will rafael grossi attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260812154221279	Yes	+0	$1	18¢	$0	$0	08-18 12:58
will badr bin hamad al busaidi attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260812154221276	Yes	+0	$1	18¢	$0	-$1	08-18 14:33
Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	Yes	+0	$0	22¢	$0	$0	09-02 16:44
Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026?	No	+0	$2	15¢	$0	-$2	09-28 23:32
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	No	+0	$2	6¢	$0	-$2	09-24 04:32
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	No	+0	$2	2¢	$0	-$2	10-01 07:52
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+0	$1	3¢	$0	-$1	10-14 15:36
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	+0	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	08-22 07:49
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+0	$2	1¢	$0	-$2	10-07 22:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?	82	$200	329	326	+3	open	—	10-25 10:56
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	73	$113	963	963	+0	No	$0	08-29 19:51
SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?	39	$88	147	147	+1	open	—	10-24 00:16
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels before September 1, 2026?	27	$81	96	92	+4	Yes	+$0	08-29 13:54
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in August 2026?	106	$80	825	760	+66	No	+$3	08-31 02:05
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in August?	34	$74	188	187	+0	No	+$2	08-29 07:39
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	23	$73	87	86	+0	Yes	-$1	08-22 16:29
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 31, 2026?	49	$68	255	255	+0	No	+$7	09-04 23:00
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	46	$67	217	216	+0	open	—	10-26 10:37
Next DeepSeek Pro released by November 30, 2026?	20	$63	94	76	+17	open	—	10-13 04:18
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	18	$61	71	70	+1	open	—	10-01 07:52
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	21	$61	75	75	+0	Yes	+$5	10-13 22:43
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	59	$58	253	252	+0	open	—	10-14 15:36
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026?	96	$51	661	408	+253	No	+$7	10-24 03:12
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?	14	$50	46	42	+4	Yes	-$2	08-25 04:16
Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?	20	$49	62	60	+2	Yes	+$2	08-25 15:10
Will Marcelo Castro win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?	15	$44	50	48	+3	Yes	-$3	09-30 18:18
Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	34	$44	160	158	+2	open	—	10-27 08:17
Will the Nebraska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	15	$43	53	34	+19	open	—	10-25 20:30
Will Raphael Warnock win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	26	$42	130	130	+0	open	—	10-27 15:47
Will Manuela D'Ávila win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?	21	$42	119	88	+32	No	+$4	09-30 21:34
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?	74	$41	450	369	+81	No	-$2	10-10 03:22
next mythos class model released by september 15 2026	14	$38	50	47	+3	Yes	-$1	08-28 15:20
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	21	$38	86	70	+17	open	—	10-27 01:53
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	18	$38	108	108	+0	Yes	+$2	09-23 05:59
Will Deltan Dallagnol win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?	11	$37	42	38	+4	No	+$6	10-04 00:05
Will Wildwood win Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	18	$37	48	40	+7	open	—	10-25 23:15
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	15	$36	44	40	+5	open	—	10-26 15:52
Will Emerson Nolasco Delgado win the next Huancayo mayoral elections?	10	$35	60	60	+0	open	—	08-22 00:45
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	25	$35	93	89	+4	open	—	10-21 15:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 22:27:21	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 3%-6%?	Yes	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0x07de26…
10-27 22:05:24	Will Luis Barraza win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x765c26…
10-27 21:46:02	Will Ronaldo play with Ronaldo Jr. before the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0x315ead…
10-27 21:34:09	Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receiving yards?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x7b68b4…
10-27 21:05:20	Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xfe0c1d…
10-27 19:21:03	Will David Montgomery have 3.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	8	28¢	$2	0xeb8b00…
10-27 18:35:09	Will Meta have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x5db490…
10-27 18:35:09	Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x2bc237…
10-27 18:24:02	Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xd45b95…
10-27 18:09:41	Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xa0ecb0…
10-27 17:55:39	Will Z.ai be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa13bbe…
10-27 17:24:23	Will Alfonso Martínez Alcázar win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0xb5aa02…
10-27 16:42:02	Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0xe86725…
10-27 16:41:27	Will Z.ai be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xc7a44a…
10-27 16:26:36	Will Z.ai be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0xe82bce…
10-27 16:18:50	Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xe37407…
10-27 16:18:50	Will Meta have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xb805a5…
10-27 16:18:18	Will Meta have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x921056…
10-27 16:17:24	Will any former NBA player be drafted in the 2027 WNBA Draft?	Yes	BUY	37	4¢	$2	0xf60003…
10-27 15:59:06	Will Z.ai be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	1¢	$0	0xdbea03…
10-27 15:59:06	Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xd9bf06…
10-27 15:58:02	Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xf8f553…
10-27 15:57:12	Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x8117a0…
10-27 15:57:05	Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xf86d67…
10-27 15:57:05	Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xf191c5…
10-27 15:57:05	Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xe2f736…
10-27 15:57:05	Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xd73d31…
10-27 15:47:00	Will Raphael Warnock win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Yes	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x5c38b3…
10-27 15:42:48	Will Raphael Warnock win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Yes	SELL	12	15¢	$2	0x2c40cc…
10-27 14:36:30	Will Raphael Warnock win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x7fd85d…
10-27 14:09:00	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	Yes	SELL	8	17¢	$1	0x39b7dd…
10-27 12:37:38	Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0xca0fbd…
10-27 12:37:05	Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0xa92598…
10-27 10:59:36	Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba have 12.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0xa6d993…
10-27 10:06:09	Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x6ad0e0…
10-27 09:27:33	Will the Ornn A100 Index be at least $1.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x0251fe…
10-27 09:05:00	Will Baidu be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0x1f5f58…
10-27 09:00:09	Will Erling Braut Haaland be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?	Yes	SELL	7	41¢	$3	0xd7ac79…
10-27 08:55:06	Will Tencent be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xfa816b…
10-27 08:55:05	Will Tencent be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xbdf85c…
10-27 08:54:59	Will Tencent be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xba2695…
10-27 08:17:35	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	54¢	$4	0xe21f11…
10-27 08:05:35	Will Grok 5 be released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	1¢	$0	0x431701…
10-27 06:05:50	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	Yes	BUY	8	20¢	$2	0x8a0a13…
10-27 05:07:50	Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Sean Strickland next?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x21036e…
10-27 04:19:15	Will Drake London have 9.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	8	11¢	$1	0x7500df…
10-27 03:28:42	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,490 but below 3,500 ft?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xf6c681…
10-27 03:28:42	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation fall below 3,490 ft?	Yes	SELL	24	1¢	$0	0x37a63d…
10-27 03:28:26	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation fall below 3,490 ft?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xd20ce0…
10-27 03:28:26	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation fall below 3,490 ft?	Yes	BUY	28	0¢	$0	0xb15655…
10-27 03:28:26	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation fall below 3,490 ft?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x61105d…
10-27 03:28:26	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,490 but below 3,500 ft?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x3c9a00…
10-27 03:28:26	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,490 but below 3,500 ft?	Yes	BUY	56	0¢	$0	0x12c42b…
10-27 02:27:20	Will CeeDee Lamb have 5.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0x5c9ccf…
10-27 01:53:50	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	29¢	$4	0x7f5c56…
10-27 00:38:51	Will CeeDee Lamb have 7.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	6	89¢	$6	0x428c10…
10-27 00:27:06	Will Z.ai be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x73c2d2…
10-26 21:20:47	Will Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat?	No	BUY	9	51¢	$4	0x5dcc51…
10-26 20:51:54	Will Russell Westbrook play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0x3bce08…
10-26 20:51:51	Will Russell Westbrook play for the Utah Jazz in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0x92a85a…
10-26 20:51:33	Will Russell Westbrook play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x85e273…
10-26 18:51:21	Will Jameson Williams have 7.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0xc1b4d5…
10-26 18:40:50	Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $9B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x8ab615…
10-26 18:35:20	Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xa8c786…
10-26 18:35:18	Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x0a14a0…
10-26 18:34:54	Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x680f7e…
10-26 18:23:18	Will Anthropic be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	3¢	$0	0x1d7bec…
10-26 17:59:47	Will Texas Tech have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	7	5¢	$0	0xab6d6c…
10-26 17:48:38	Will Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0x19b164…
10-26 16:59:50	Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba have 12.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	6	57¢	$3	0x64ed35…
10-26 16:56:54	Will Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	2¢	$0	0x5d8e77…
10-26 16:51:20	Will Z.ai be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0xc82c80…
10-26 16:51:20	Will Meta be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x3b61f9…
10-26 16:51:20	Will Z.ai be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x0e7b8d…
10-26 16:47:42	Will Z.ai be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xf569df…
10-26 16:47:42	Will Z.ai be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x1dc872…
10-26 15:52:33	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	No	SELL	6	26¢	$1	0x39a3b9…
10-26 15:45:26	Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	No	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0x7b0f72…
10-26 14:41:53	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xd08481…
10-26 14:41:38	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	No	BUY	7	23¢	$2	0x58ac93…
10-26 14:41:38	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x1942a0…
10-26 14:17:09	Will Tangles win Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	14	4¢	$1	0xa5c30d…
10-26 13:58:35	Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x098acd…
10-26 13:37:12	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0xdb9c0c…
10-26 13:36:08	Will the Ornn A100 Index be at least $1.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xdf0033…
10-26 13:16:35	Will Davante Adams have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	8	6¢	$0	0x1a0418…
10-26 13:11:21	Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x668e47…
10-26 13:05:45	Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	No	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x72975a…
10-26 12:31:56	Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xb6a451…
10-26 12:28:33	Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	3¢	$1	0xec9151…
10-26 11:34:45	Will DeepSeek have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0xd2fe90…
10-26 11:34:42	Will Meta have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x174ecf…
10-26 11:19:53	Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x50b5b6…
10-26 11:17:54	Will Josh Downs have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	6	50¢	$3	0x6d9657…
10-26 10:37:33	Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xab9574…
10-26 10:27:51	Will the Ornn A100 Index be at least $1.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x9a54d7…
10-26 09:27:05	Will the Ornn A100 Index be at least $1.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xd9db20…
10-26 09:27:05	Will the Ornn A100 Index be at least $1.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xd12a8b…
10-26 09:27:05	Will the Ornn A100 Index be at least $1.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x9f323f…
10-26 09:27:05	Will the Ornn A100 Index be at least $1.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x4c6154…