Torn-Myth — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$66.0K

Unrealized P&L

-$836

Hit rate

72.3%

Resolved

269

Trades

5,323

lifetime

Volume

$1.34M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$252

Open exposure

$57.8K

17 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 11-07 13:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 97 days

Categories

Politics

71% 67% +$2,171

Other

28% 62% +$63,752

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% 62% +$90

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

77 active days in 12wk • peak 121 trades/day

Open positions (17) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	+15,304	$13,880	88¢	$13.5K	-$358	11-07 00:44
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+13,413	$11,222	91¢	$12.2K	+$1,018	11-02 18:30
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+11,106	$10,058	98¢	$10.9K	+$842	10-31 15:40
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	+7,110	$6,470	92¢	$6.6K	+$107	10-25 19:02
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	+7,513	$6,553	88¢	$6.6K	+$21	11-07 16:36
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+6,395	$5,284	40¢	$2.5K	-$2,757	11-02 15:46
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+2,000	$1,560	88¢	$1.8K	+$199	10-25 18:23
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	+1,273	$701	83¢	$1.1K	+$360	10-17 14:48
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	+1,200	$876	80¢	$966	+$90	11-06 01:14
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+800	$691	98¢	$787	+$95	10-23 09:26
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	+637	$351	62¢	$397	+$46	10-12 10:28
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+2,000	$270	12¢	$241	-$29	08-28 22:22
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+190	$162	92¢	$174	+$12	10-25 02:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	+1,534	$159	3¢	$49	-$110	09-28 01:53
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+905	$793	1¢	$7	-$786	11-01 19:10
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+0	-$35	90¢	$0	+$35	11-03 04:54
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	Yes	+0	-$380	60¢	$0	+$380	11-05 16:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	155	$111.3K	72,707	72,707	+0	open	—	11-03 04:54
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	169	$71.3K	121,446	31,378	+90,068	Yes	+$53,677	09-13 12:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	56	$57.6K	31,790	31,790	+0	Yes	+$4,602	10-24 20:21
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	95	$57.2K	49,123	28,433	+20,690	No	-$20,074	10-25 22:47
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	109	$54.0K	40,690	40,690	+0	open	—	11-01 11:23
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	140	$50.9K	37,459	32,865	+4,594	Yes	+$4,523	11-03 04:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	378	$41.8K	83,176	83,764	-587	No	+$1,874	05-27 12:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	134	$37.3K	39,011	36,791	+2,221	No	+$14,272	05-24 20:23
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	70	$33.2K	18,310	18,310	+0	Yes	+$754	10-12 17:55
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	200	$31.7K	70,134	30,724	+39,410	Yes	-$7,757	07-29 12:19
Fed rate hike in 2026?	65	$27.7K	29,729	25,229	+4,500	Yes	+$4,281	08-18 21:39
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	100	$26.4K	56,791	30,251	+26,540	No	-$6,972	11-03 00:38
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	225	$25.8K	91,543	35,512	+56,031	No	-$8,444	07-29 12:04
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	91	$24.1K	26,544	26,544	+0	Yes	+$6,928	08-08 15:10
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	46	$22.2K	15,647	11,647	+4,000	open	—	10-25 18:23
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	11	$22.0K	12,200	12,200	+0	Yes	+$954	10-27 03:53
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	19	$19.3K	10,347	11,347	-1,000	No	+$1,473	05-21 10:32
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	81	$19.2K	15,492	13,576	+1,916	No	-$271	05-23 11:24
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	2	$18.8K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	+$400	11-02 16:18
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	72	$18.1K	12,000	10,727	+1,273	open	—	10-17 14:48
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	7	$17.4K	13,110	6,000	+7,110	open	—	10-25 19:02
israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	31	$17.2K	10,662	9,817	+845	Yes	+$535	10-30 00:44
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	56	$17.1K	9,578	9,578	+0	No	+$944	07-16 03:12
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	71	$14.4K	9,556	9,556	+0	No	+$355	07-25 12:18
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	17	$14.4K	15,552	247	+15,304	open	—	11-07 00:44
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	63	$13.5K	12,905	12,905	+0	No	+$47	06-08 23:20
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	92	$11.9K	43,421	33,287	+10,134	No	+$3,431	05-28 18:10
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	57	$11.8K	12,106	1,000	+11,106	open	—	10-31 15:40
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	94	$11.3K	11,140	11,140	+0	Yes	+$686	07-13 04:34
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	26	$11.2K	13,413	0	+13,413	open	—	11-02 18:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 16:36:58	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,513	87¢	$3,926	0x59a5a5…
11-07 16:32:37	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	90¢	$60	0xe417b6…
11-07 16:32:37	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	90¢	$68	0x5e1b19…
11-07 16:32:37	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,759	90¢	$1,583	0x504c2a…
11-07 16:32:37	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x4f7620…
11-07 13:55:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	75	24¢	$18	0xb37bdc…
11-07 13:33:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0x17b8a8…
11-07 13:28:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	7	24¢	$2	0x8f1d03…
11-07 13:22:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	28	24¢	$7	0xffdc10…
11-07 12:42:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	800	24¢	$192	0x7d2a5a…
11-07 12:36:03	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0xbff77e…
11-07 12:34:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0xc03ec0…
11-07 12:20:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	140	24¢	$34	0xd19f90…
11-07 12:13:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	937	24¢	$225	0x58d1b9…
11-07 00:44:10	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	11,679	91¢	$10,581	0xe0d523…
11-07 00:32:37	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	90¢	$900	0xa09977…
11-06 19:01:15	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	SELL	84	59¢	$50	0x48a87b…
11-06 18:18:28	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	SELL	1,210	59¢	$714	0xbf3519…
11-06 18:17:13	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	SELL	1,200	59¢	$708	0x1278ba…
11-06 18:15:21	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	SELL	1,200	57¢	$684	0xdd2294…
11-06 18:15:01	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	SELL	1,200	57¢	$684	0x934dab…
11-06 18:14:42	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	SELL	1,200	57¢	$684	0x407314…
11-06 18:14:22	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	SELL	1,200	57¢	$684	0xb57966…
11-06 18:13:42	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	SELL	1,200	57¢	$684	0xec8b36…
11-06 18:11:34	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	SELL	1,198	58¢	$695	0xff5969…
11-06 18:10:45	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	SELL	1,200	59¢	$708	0x01ce23…
11-06 18:10:04	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	SELL	1,205	59¢	$711	0x42b827…
11-06 17:14:34	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	BUY	1,200	32¢	$384	0xf8c26e…
11-06 17:11:34	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	BUY	1,200	32¢	$384	0x63e04b…
11-06 17:11:06	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	BUY	1,187	32¢	$380	0x4d6056…
11-06 17:09:21	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xf80424…
11-06 17:09:07	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	BUY	1,194	34¢	$406	0x0354f7…
11-06 17:08:19	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	BUY	1,200	35¢	$420	0x4ca693…
11-06 17:06:03	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	BUY	1,200	32¢	$384	0x14a28a…
11-06 17:05:28	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	BUY	1,200	31¢	$372	0x9403e4…
11-06 17:05:04	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	BUY	1,110	31¢	$344	0x5146bf…
11-06 17:04:19	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	BUY	90	31¢	$28	0xd3bbcc…
11-06 17:04:10	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	BUY	1,210	31¢	$375	0xfae3f4…
11-06 17:03:52	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	BUY	90	31¢	$28	0x5ec017…
11-06 17:03:52	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $200 in November?	Yes	BUY	1,210	30¢	$363	0x5dee65…
11-06 01:14:10	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	64	73¢	$46	0x6afe43…
11-06 00:52:10	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	13	73¢	$9	0x33d552…
11-06 00:48:13	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xe3da03…
11-06 00:48:12	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	1,118	73¢	$816	0xbbae72…
11-05 16:49:13	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	Yes	SELL	3,593	52¢	$1,868	0xe07ab9…
11-05 16:42:51	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	Yes	SELL	7	52¢	$4	0x19f06b…
11-05 16:41:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	Yes	SELL	31	52¢	$16	0xaeca4b…
11-05 16:41:04	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	Yes	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x1997aa…
11-05 16:41:01	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	Yes	SELL	45	52¢	$23	0xdb2e23…
11-05 15:54:04	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	Yes	SELL	8	52¢	$4	0xe50fa8…
11-05 15:53:40	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	Yes	SELL	19	52¢	$10	0x39f32c…
11-05 15:53:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	Yes	SELL	1	52¢	$1	0x52cad3…
11-05 15:53:25	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	Yes	SELL	1	52¢	$0	0x71414e…
11-05 13:53:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,571	22¢	$346	0xe4e6ab…
11-05 13:51:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	22¢	$0	0x57b580…
11-05 13:47:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	38	22¢	$8	0x0507ea…
11-05 12:55:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	22¢	$1	0xdf5c9d…
11-05 12:50:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	256	22¢	$56	0xe73b7f…
11-05 12:47:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	128	22¢	$28	0xd53191…
11-05 10:45:37	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	SELL	491	77¢	$378	0x8ca466…
11-05 10:21:31	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	Yes	SELL	23	52¢	$12	0x5d4587…
11-05 05:34:31	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	Yes	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0x39f50e…
11-05 05:33:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	Yes	SELL	5	52¢	$2	0x21ce7b…
11-05 04:21:46	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	Yes	SELL	96	52¢	$50	0xdd3a0b…
11-05 04:21:10	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	Yes	SELL	159	52¢	$83	0x6ca24f…
11-05 04:06:31	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	82	45¢	$37	0x3a485d…
11-05 04:06:30	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	32	45¢	$14	0xa392b6…
11-05 03:48:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	11	45¢	$5	0x924974…
11-05 03:17:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	31	45¢	$14	0x526ca3…
11-05 01:51:28	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	32	45¢	$14	0x79f622…
11-05 01:01:24	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	838	45¢	$377	0x879f9a…
11-05 00:06:01	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	35	45¢	$16	0xba9021…
11-04 23:14:24	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	4	45¢	$2	0xb55e80…
11-04 16:05:45	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,099	96¢	$1,055	0x7b3023…
11-03 07:38:16	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	39¢	$780	0xf841ef…
11-03 06:51:37	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	74¢	$3,700	0x5dc172…
11-03 04:54:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	150	83¢	$124	0x143039…
11-03 04:53:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	41	83¢	$34	0xd1830d…
11-03 04:12:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	619	75¢	$464	0x329adb…
11-03 04:12:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xa75eb8…
11-03 04:08:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xb54c9a…
11-03 04:02:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xf8f6c6…
11-03 03:54:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	11	83¢	$9	0x4f4fcb…
11-03 03:52:55	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	11	83¢	$9	0xccc1d9…
11-03 03:33:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	458	83¢	$380	0x56671d…
11-03 03:03:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	4,318	83¢	$3,584	0xef6ece…
11-03 01:40:24	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	34¢	$17	0x2a64e5…
11-03 01:06:18	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	SELL	677	64¢	$433	0xc47828…
11-03 01:06:18	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	SELL	1,323	64¢	$847	0x6ea2d4…
11-03 00:38:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	209	24¢	$50	0x96ae9a…
11-03 00:26:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5,000	82¢	$4,100	0x049cc9…
11-02 21:33:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	160	71¢	$114	0x845b9d…
11-02 21:15:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	33	84¢	$27	0xff751a…
11-02 21:15:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	77	84¢	$65	0x469ab7…
11-02 21:15:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	840	71¢	$596	0xb4c927…
11-02 21:13:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	134	33¢	$44	0xcf25af…
11-02 21:12:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	105	25¢	$26	0xbe9a96…
11-02 18:36:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	40¢	$800	0x755a95…
11-02 18:34:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	11	32¢	$3	0x9cc160…
11-02 18:34:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	SELL	34	45¢	$15	0x690f33…