Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$64

Unrealized P&L

-$19

Hit rate

22.3%

Resolved (30d)

112

Trades (30d)

735

5,714 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$4.57K

$19.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$20

5 positions

First seen

2026-03-14

last 11-10 02:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Crypto

78% 42% +$1,953

Other

18% 28% +$810

Politics

2% 0% -$1

Tech

2% 0% -$3

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% 50% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 459 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the median home value in the US be between $403,000 and $407,000 on December 31?	No	+20	$15	63¢	$13	-$2	11-02 21:24
Will the median home value in the US be between $403,000 and $407,000 on December 31?	Yes	+20	$18	37¢	$7	-$11	11-09 20:17
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 16, 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	13¢	$0	$0	11-06 00:04
Will PSOE win the most seats in Barcelona in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	+0	$0	5¢	$0	$0	11-05 14:35
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	Yes	+0	$5	11¢	$0	-$5	10-31 23:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Bank of Japan make no change to the uncollateralized overnight call rate at the January meeting?	7	$221	216	216	+0	open	—	10-31 16:42
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	5	$138	126	126	+0	Yes	-$9	11-01 01:19
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?	10	$136	176	176	+0	open	—	11-08 00:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	30	$128	137	0	+137	Down	+$9	09-07 03:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	26	$114	120	0	+120	Down	+$6	09-07 16:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 22:00 UTC	21	$98	100	0	+100	Up	+$2	08-22 22:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-23 00:50 UTC	20	$98	100	0	+100	Up	+$2	08-23 00:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 10:15 UTC	21	$93	100	0	+100	Down	-$43	08-22 10:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-23 01:05 UTC	19	$93	95	0	+95	Up	+$2	08-23 01:09
Will Katie Miller be the next White House Press Secretary?	2	$93	50	50	+0	open	—	11-06 19:50
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Zacatecas Congress election?	2	$90	60	60	+0	open	—	10-31 22:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-23 04:20 UTC	19	$85	95	0	+95	Up	+$10	08-23 04:24
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?	4	$84	84	84	+0	open	—	11-04 18:51
Will the median home value in the US be between $403,000 and $407,000 on December 31?	8	$84	103	63	+40	open	—	11-09 20:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-04 09:10 UTC	20	$83	90	0	+90	Down	+$7	09-04 09:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	20	$83	90	0	+90	Up	-$23	09-07 14:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-23 00:05 UTC	20	$80	90	0	+90	Down	+$10	08-23 00:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	17	$79	85	0	+85	Down	-$69	09-05 18:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	15	$71	75	0	+75	Down	+$4	09-05 08:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	15	$66	70	0	+70	Up	+$4	09-04 00:14
Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the March meeting?	2	$65	85	85	+0	open	—	10-31 19:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	14	$65	68	0	+68	Up	+$3	09-07 11:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	15	$64	70	0	+70	Down	-$4	09-07 16:00
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?	3	$64	65	65	+0	open	—	10-31 23:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	13	$63	65	0	+65	Up	+$2	09-05 11:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-23 02:15 UTC	15	$63	70	0	+70	Down	+$7	08-23 02:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	14	$63	67	0	+67	Up	+$4	09-04 22:14
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	3	$63	34	34	+0	No	-$1	11-04 00:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	14	$62	64	0	+64	Down	+$2	09-07 16:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	13	$61	65	0	+65	Down	+$4	09-05 19:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-10 02:08:15	Will the Central Bank of Chile increase the monetary policy rate by 25 bps at the January meeting?	No	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x23af7c…
11-10 02:08:13	Will the Central Bank of Chile increase the monetary policy rate by 25 bps at the January meeting?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x59fd02…
11-10 02:05:07	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on November 9?	No	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0x8745a0…
11-10 02:05:04	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on November 9?	No	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x26cca3…
11-10 02:05:03	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on November 9?	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xbe546f…
11-10 02:01:15	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x10d08a…
11-10 02:01:12	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0xf3838a…
11-10 01:59:33	Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $8.9B by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xd8714a…
11-10 01:59:31	Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $8.9B by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x7f8e74…
11-10 01:57:55	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?	Yes	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0x9786bd…
11-10 01:57:54	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?	Yes	BUY	0	53¢	$0	0x23612b…
11-10 01:57:52	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x13427d…
11-10 01:50:57	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election by 6% or more?	No	SELL	50	1¢	$1	0xdf88c3…
11-10 01:50:54	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election by 6% or more?	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xddf074…
11-10 01:47:16	Will Dario Durigan be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x791db5…
11-10 01:47:15	Will Dario Durigan be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xd9ea2d…
11-10 01:16:55	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.6% and 1.8%?	No	SELL	5	66¢	$4	0x8dc670…
11-10 01:16:52	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.6% and 1.8%?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$4	0xd4af87…
11-10 00:55:39	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.75T and $1.875T at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	15¢	$1	0x1ee0f5…
11-10 00:55:37	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.75T and $1.875T at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x6da223…
11-10 00:18:36	Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xff5293…
11-10 00:18:34	Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x9311b3…
11-10 00:17:22	Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6%?	Yes	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0xeee316…
11-10 00:17:19	Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6%?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x7647b4…
11-10 00:15:55	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0xa1d4f8…
11-10 00:15:54	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x1a6bad…
11-10 00:15:27	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on November 7?	No	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xa1a978…
11-10 00:15:24	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on November 7?	No	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x17bd03…
11-10 00:14:48	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xaed6c9…
11-10 00:14:46	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x06ec6c…
11-09 23:42:42	Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $6.4B by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x0532f0…
11-09 23:42:40	Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $6.4B by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x1963a1…
11-09 23:26:48	Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the February meeting?	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0xb3c679…
11-09 23:26:46	Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the February meeting?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x6c148e…
11-09 22:41:30	Will the next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) be released on November 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	14¢	$1	0xfe1892…
11-09 22:41:28	Will the next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) be released on November 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xf41c0b…
11-09 22:12:10	Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	SELL	3	28¢	$1	0x038f3e…
11-09 22:12:09	Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xfe7681…
11-09 21:42:21	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	14¢	$2	0xf99df0…
11-09 21:42:19	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0x87aa5d…
11-09 20:56:57	Will Team Spirit win 1win Essence III?	Yes	SELL	10	57¢	$6	0x6cca67…
11-09 20:56:55	Will Team Spirit win 1win Essence III?	Yes	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xa2fa2e…
11-09 20:27:15	Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $124B by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x6d89eb…
11-09 20:27:13	Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $124B by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xe5ed0d…
11-09 20:24:33	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0xda38ee…
11-09 20:24:31	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x09c23c…
11-09 20:17:52	Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $194B by November 30?	Yes	SELL	30	10¢	$3	0xf6c0f8…
11-09 20:17:51	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% in November?	Yes	SELL	36	5¢	$2	0xd18a03…
11-09 20:17:51	Will the median home value in the US be between $403,000 and $407,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	40	33¢	$13	0x586a7f…
11-09 20:06:07	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Yucatán Congress election?	No	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xc2d00e…
11-09 20:06:06	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Yucatán Congress election?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xf3a5d6…
11-09 20:04:40	Will PAIS win the third most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x452e11…
11-09 20:04:39	Will PAIS win the third most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xbd0d45…
11-09 20:02:48	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $8.00 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x8edef2…
11-09 20:02:46	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $8.00 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x6af512…
11-09 20:01:28	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x45648c…
11-09 20:01:27	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xb86d2b…
11-09 20:00:18	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.20% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	17¢	$5	0x8b3352…
11-09 20:00:15	Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.0%?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xc13e12…
11-09 20:00:15	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.20% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0xa1817c…
11-09 20:00:13	Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.0%?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xf2fac6…
11-09 18:50:27	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% in November?	Yes	SELL	10	23¢	$2	0xae561b…
11-09 18:50:27	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% in November?	Yes	SELL	14	23¢	$3	0x85b038…
11-09 18:50:27	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% in November?	Yes	SELL	21	23¢	$5	0x5ec216…
11-09 18:50:27	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% in November?	Yes	SELL	19	23¢	$4	0x20c129…
11-09 05:56:16	Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $109B by November 30?	Yes	SELL	11	30¢	$3	0xe46415…
11-09 05:40:49	Will Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	SELL	60	11¢	$6	0xd8ad39…
11-09 04:53:16	Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $109B by November 30?	Yes	SELL	3	41¢	$1	0xad001e…
11-09 02:43:03	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% in November?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x3a58ea…
11-09 02:43:01	Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $7.9B by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x3d93ba…
11-09 02:42:27	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% in November?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x603f33…
11-09 02:39:28	Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $109B by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0xa685e4…
11-09 02:38:49	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% in November?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x2a26bc…
11-09 02:38:40	Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $109B by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x49caed…
11-09 01:28:00	Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $194B by November 30?	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x0cdd9d…
11-09 01:27:48	Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $7.9B by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x8e1c9d…
11-09 01:27:48	Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $7.9B by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x293f26…
11-09 01:27:46	Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $7.9B by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x8c5446…
11-09 01:26:58	Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $194B by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1	53¢	$1	0xc3bdb5…
11-09 01:26:58	Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $194B by November 30?	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x636905…
11-09 01:26:49	Will Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xd178a5…
11-09 01:26:37	Will Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xed03f5…
11-09 01:26:31	Will Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xf243f7…
11-09 01:25:55	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% in November?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xf91ce7…
11-09 01:25:49	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% in November?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x4db77a…
11-09 01:25:30	Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $15.8B by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x0d0bef…
11-09 01:24:58	Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $109B by November 30?	Yes	BUY	14	51¢	$7	0x1ef715…
11-09 00:55:43	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 3 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x36b4b3…
11-09 00:55:42	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 3 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x0f98a1…
11-09 00:52:09	Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $15.8B by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x9b8701…
11-08 23:45:34	Will Raphinha (Barcelona) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season?	No	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0xc6ffe0…
11-08 23:44:24	Will Raphinha (Barcelona) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x5ab9f8…
11-08 23:17:30	Will "The Cat in the Hat" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 20m?	Yes	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0xaec832…
11-08 23:02:13	Will "The Cat in the Hat" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 20m?	Yes	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0xd5cd1a…
11-08 22:59:19	Will "The Cat in the Hat" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 20m?	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x4d8549…
11-08 22:37:46	Will the median home value in the US be between $403,000 and $407,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	54¢	$22	0x6ed283…
11-08 22:34:10	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the June meeting?	No	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0x52759f…
11-08 22:34:07	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the June meeting?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x422e1e…
11-08 22:29:54	Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on November 30?	No	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x5a0e09…
11-08 22:29:51	Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on November 30?	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x5b4ba0…