Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.80% in November?
Yes won
Total volume
$956
$505 in 24h
Trades
110
Unique wallets
40
Liquidity
$0
Latest YES mid
96¢
Latest NO mid
4¢
End date
2026-12-01
First seen
2026-11-03
last 11-12 20:50
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+2.0¢
(top1%: 75% YES on $210
vs crowd: 73% YES on $879)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 6 | $180 | $62 | +$118 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 13 | $106 | $76 | +$31 |
| 🐟 Fish | 17 | $217 | $62 | +$155 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 4 | $135 | $41 | +$95 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 7 | $157 | $53 | +$104 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 13 | $238 | $45 | +$193 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | $5 | $12 | $8 |
| Median | 2 | $140 | — | +$140 |
| Below median | 4 | $29 | $30 | $1 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | $8 | — | +$8 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 7 | $30 | $47 | $16 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 4 | $32 | $53 | $21 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | +191 | $141 | $141 | 7 | 11-12 17:00 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +142 | $50 | $50 | 7 | 11-12 15:21 |
| (anonymous) 0xed4a…128c | Yes | +125 | $123 | $123 | 1 | 11-12 20:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xa22e…b43a | Yes | +100 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 11-12 20:49 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +83 | $29 | $29 | 4 | 11-04 23:19 |
| Fixed-Fang 0x22c6…f5ed | No | +80 | $0 | $0 | 5 | 11-12 20:49 |
| Third-Odyssey 0xa53b…4021 | No | +63 | $41 | $41 | 3 | 11-04 23:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | No | +62 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 11-12 16:25 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +60 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 11-12 20:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xef13…63d9 | No | +60 | $34 | $34 | 3 | 11-09 02:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xf65f…bc73 | Yes | +52 | $17 | $17 | 4 | 11-10 14:11 |
| (anonymous) 0x5768…3bae | Yes | +50 | $33 | $33 | 1 | 11-11 12:46 |
| Nonstop-Knitting 0x9a94…d5f9 | No | +50 | $0 | $0 | 3 | 11-12 20:50 |
| Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | No | +42 | $2 | $2 | 3 | 11-12 20:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xc4fe…8d1d | Yes | +40 | $40 | $40 | 1 | 11-12 20:50 |
| Worthless-Bank 0x70f8…7fb5 | Yes | +30 | $18 | $18 | 2 | 11-12 14:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x91a4…dc02 | No | +21 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 11-10 14:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x5bdf…e240 | Yes | +21 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 11-09 18:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x3922…3aa4 | No | +20 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 11-12 20:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | Yes | +20 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 11-12 17:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x305d…c253 | Yes | +20 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 11-03 11:30 |
| Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | +20 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 11-09 01:25 |
| Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | +20 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 11-09 02:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x7d16…2154 | No | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 11-12 17:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x305d…c253 | No | +20 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 11-03 11:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | No | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 11-12 17:00 |
| Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | No | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 11-12 17:00 |
| Writhing-Retention 0xeab7…b389 | No | +20 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 11-12 20:49 |
| (anonymous) 0xc194…2f3f | No | +20 | $12 | $12 | 2 | 11-11 01:19 |
| (anonymous) 0xef13…63d9 | Yes | +19 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 11-11 01:19 |
| (anonymous) 0xc194…2f3f | Yes | +17 | $12 | $12 | 2 | 11-12 13:06 |
| (anonymous) 0xadb4…bc39 | No | +15 | $12 | $12 | 2 | 11-10 06:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xadb4…bc39 | Yes | +14 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 11-10 06:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xa1cc…fa62 | No | +10 | $7 | $7 | 2 | 11-03 03:52 |
| Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | +10 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 11-12 20:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x48f0…4463 | Yes | +8 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 11-12 20:50 |
| Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 11-03 03:52 |
| Third-Odyssey 0xa53b…4021 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 11-03 00:22 |
| Voluminous-Lava 0x46b3…d3de | No | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 11-12 20:27 |
| Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | +1 | $0 | $16 | 5 | 11-10 14:04 |
| (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | Yes | +1 | -$2 | $11 | 2 | 11-12 20:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | +1 | -$1 | $10 | 2 | 11-09 20:17 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-12 20:50:58 | (anonymous) 0x48f0…4463 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 100¢ | $8 | 0xd76ebb… |
| 11-12 20:50:58 | Nonstop-Knitting 0x9a94…d5f9 | No | BUY | 8 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd76ebb… |
| 11-12 20:50:55 | Nonstop-Knitting 0x9a94…d5f9 | No | BUY | 40 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x2ea358… |
| 11-12 20:50:55 | (anonymous) 0xc4fe…8d1d | Yes | BUY | 40 | 100¢ | $40 | 0x2ea358… |
| 11-12 20:49:21 | Nonstop-Knitting 0x9a94…d5f9 | No | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd289ec… |
| 11-12 20:49:21 | Writhing-Retention 0xeab7…b389 | No | BUY | 20 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd289ec… |
| 11-12 20:49:21 | Fixed-Fang 0x22c6…f5ed | No | BUY | 28 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd289ec… |
| 11-12 20:49:21 | (anonymous) 0xa22e…b43a | Yes | BUY | 100 | 100¢ | $100 | 0xd289ec… |
| 11-12 20:49:21 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | BUY | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd289ec… |
| 11-12 20:27:01 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | No | BUY | 21 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x00a5c8… |
| 11-12 20:27:01 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | Yes | SELL | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0x00a5c8… |
| 11-12 20:27:01 | Voluminous-Lava 0x46b3…d3de | No | BUY | 5 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x00a5c8… |
| 11-12 20:27:01 | (anonymous) 0xed4a…128c | Yes | BUY | 125 | 99¢ | $123 | 0x00a5c8… |
| 11-12 20:27:01 | (anonymous) 0x3922…3aa4 | No | BUY | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x00a5c8… |
| 11-12 20:27:01 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 60 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x00a5c8… |
| 11-12 20:27:01 | Fixed-Fang 0x22c6…f5ed | No | BUY | 7 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x00a5c8… |
| 11-12 17:00:15 | Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | No | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x1cb686… |
| 11-12 17:00:15 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 91¢ | $36 | 0xf6c851… |
| 11-12 17:00:15 | (anonymous) 0x7d16…2154 | No | BUY | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xf6c851… |
| 11-12 17:00:15 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x1cb686… |
| 11-12 17:00:15 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | No | BUY | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xf6c851… |
| 11-12 16:25:36 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | No | BUY | 3 | 10¢ | $0 | 0x568136… |
| 11-12 16:25:36 | (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | No | BUY | 62 | 10¢ | $6 | 0x568136… |
| 11-12 16:25:36 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | BUY | 66 | 90¢ | $59 | 0x568136… |
| 11-12 15:53:15 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | No | BUY | 18 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x434fa8… |
| 11-12 15:53:15 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | BUY | 18 | 90¢ | $16 | 0x434fa8… |
| 11-12 15:21:21 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | BUY | 22 | 87¢ | $19 | 0xce7408… |
| 11-12 15:21:21 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 22 | 13¢ | $3 | 0xce7408… |
| 11-12 14:20:57 | (anonymous) 0xbb10…523d | Yes | SELL | 5 | 77¢ | $4 | 0x44a3e4… |
| 11-12 14:20:57 | Worthless-Bank 0x70f8…7fb5 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 77¢ | $4 | 0x44a3e4… |
| 11-12 13:34:12 | (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0x0c0011… |
| 11-12 13:34:12 | (anonymous) 0xabfc…d119 | No | SELL | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x0c0011… |
| 11-12 13:06:13 | (anonymous) 0xbb10…523d | Yes | SELL | 5 | 72¢ | $4 | 0xae35b8… |
| 11-12 13:06:13 | (anonymous) 0xc194…2f3f | Yes | BUY | 5 | 72¢ | $4 | 0xae35b8… |
| 11-12 13:05:13 | (anonymous) 0xc194…2f3f | Yes | BUY | 12 | 71¢ | $9 | 0x093d50… |
| 11-12 13:05:13 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 12 | 29¢ | $4 | 0x093d50… |
| 11-12 10:12:27 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 25 | 42¢ | $10 | 0x644701… |
| 11-12 10:12:27 | Worthless-Bank 0x70f8…7fb5 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 58¢ | $14 | 0x644701… |
| 11-11 12:48:34 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 5 | 31¢ | $2 | 0xbf9c61… |
| 11-11 12:48:34 | (anonymous) 0xbb10…523d | Yes | BUY | 5 | 69¢ | $3 | 0xbf9c61… |
| 11-11 12:48:13 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 69¢ | $3 | 0xde0074… |
| 11-11 12:48:13 | (anonymous) 0xbb10…523d | Yes | BUY | 5 | 69¢ | $3 | 0xde0074… |
| 11-11 12:47:24 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 7 | 33¢ | $2 | 0x51c50d… |
| 11-11 12:47:24 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | Yes | BUY | 7 | 67¢ | $5 | 0x51c50d… |
| 11-11 12:46:01 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 50 | 34¢ | $17 | 0x5b41b3… |
| 11-11 12:46:01 | (anonymous) 0x5768…3bae | Yes | BUY | 50 | 66¢ | $33 | 0x5b41b3… |
| 11-11 01:19:01 | (anonymous) 0xc194…2f3f | No | BUY | 1 | 61¢ | $1 | 0x5705cf… |
| 11-11 01:19:01 | (anonymous) 0xef13…63d9 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 39¢ | $7 | 0xe495a2… |
| 11-11 01:19:01 | (anonymous) 0xc194…2f3f | No | BUY | 19 | 61¢ | $12 | 0xe495a2… |
| 11-11 01:19:01 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 39¢ | $0 | 0x5705cf… |
| 11-10 14:11:13 | (anonymous) 0xf65f…bc73 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 33¢ | $7 | 0x08b808… |
| 11-10 14:11:13 | (anonymous) 0xe5aa…44db | Yes | SELL | 20 | 33¢ | $7 | 0x08b808… |
| 11-10 14:10:57 | (anonymous) 0xf65f…bc73 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 39¢ | $8 | 0x728f81… |
| 11-10 14:10:57 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 21 | 61¢ | $13 | 0x728f81… |
| 11-10 14:04:16 | Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x62baa2… |
| 11-10 14:04:16 | (anonymous) 0x91a4…dc02 | No | BUY | 21 | 76¢ | $16 | 0x62baa2… |
| 11-10 14:04:16 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | BUY | 25 | 24¢ | $6 | 0x62baa2… |
| 11-10 13:51:10 | Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | SELL | 19 | 19¢ | $4 | 0xd5a836… |
| 11-10 13:51:10 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | BUY | 19 | 19¢ | $4 | 0xd5a836… |
| 11-10 06:03:21 | (anonymous) 0xf65f…bc73 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 18¢ | $2 | 0x0ad642… |
| 11-10 06:03:21 | Energetic-Mansion 0xc185…7020 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 18¢ | $2 | 0x0ad642… |
| 11-10 06:03:13 | Fixed-Fang 0x22c6…f5ed | Yes | SELL | 9 | 19¢ | $2 | 0xf31367… |
| 11-10 06:03:13 | (anonymous) 0xadb4…bc39 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 22¢ | $3 | 0x0430bd… |
| 11-10 06:03:13 | Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 22¢ | $3 | 0x0430bd… |
| 11-10 06:03:13 | Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 20¢ | $4 | 0xf31367… |
| 11-10 06:03:13 | (anonymous) 0xadb4…bc39 | No | BUY | 5 | 80¢ | $4 | 0x4285a4… |
| 11-10 06:03:13 | (anonymous) 0xf65f…bc73 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 18¢ | $0 | 0xaa5338… |
| 11-10 06:03:13 | Energetic-Mansion 0xc185…7020 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x4285a4… |
| 11-10 06:03:13 | Energetic-Mansion 0xc185…7020 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 18¢ | $0 | 0xaa5338… |
| 11-10 06:03:13 | (anonymous) 0xadb4…bc39 | No | BUY | 10 | 80¢ | $8 | 0xf31367… |
| 11-09 20:17:51 | Fixed-Fang 0x22c6…f5ed | Yes | BUY | 9 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xd18a03… |
| 11-09 20:17:51 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xd18a03… |
| 11-09 20:17:51 | (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xd18a03… |
| 11-09 20:17:51 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xd18a03… |
| 11-09 20:17:51 | (anonymous) 0xfc7e…158d | Yes | SELL | 36 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xd18a03… |
| 11-09 18:50:33 | Energetic-Mansion 0xc185…7020 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x23d0b8… |
| 11-09 18:50:33 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x23d0b8… |
| 11-09 18:50:27 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | BUY | 6 | 78¢ | $5 | 0x85b038… |
| 11-09 18:50:27 | Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 23¢ | $4 | 0x20c129… |
| 11-09 18:50:27 | (anonymous) 0xe5aa…44db | Yes | BUY | 20 | 23¢ | $5 | 0x85b038… |
| 11-09 18:50:27 | (anonymous) 0xfc7e…158d | Yes | SELL | 10 | 23¢ | $2 | 0xae561b… |
| 11-09 18:50:27 | (anonymous) 0xfc7e…158d | Yes | SELL | 21 | 23¢ | $5 | 0x5ec216… |
| 11-09 18:50:27 | (anonymous) 0xfc7e…158d | Yes | SELL | 19 | 23¢ | $4 | 0x20c129… |
| 11-09 18:50:27 | (anonymous) 0x5bdf…e240 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 23¢ | $5 | 0x5ec216… |
| 11-09 18:50:27 | Energetic-Mansion 0xc185…7020 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 23¢ | $2 | 0xae561b… |
| 11-09 18:50:27 | (anonymous) 0xfc7e…158d | Yes | SELL | 14 | 23¢ | $3 | 0x85b038… |
| 11-09 02:43:03 | (anonymous) 0xfc7e…158d | Yes | BUY | 20 | 43¢ | $9 | 0x3a58ea… |
| 11-09 02:43:03 | (anonymous) 0xef13…63d9 | No | BUY | 20 | 57¢ | $11 | 0x3a58ea… |
| 11-09 02:42:27 | (anonymous) 0xfc7e…158d | Yes | BUY | 20 | 41¢ | $8 | 0x603f33… |
| 11-09 02:42:27 | (anonymous) 0xef13…63d9 | No | BUY | 20 | 59¢ | $12 | 0x603f33… |
| 11-09 02:38:49 | Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | BUY | 20 | 59¢ | $12 | 0x2a26bc… |
| 11-09 02:38:49 | (anonymous) 0xfc7e…158d | Yes | BUY | 20 | 41¢ | $8 | 0x2a26bc… |
| 11-09 01:25:55 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | BUY | 20 | 55¢ | $11 | 0xf91ce7… |
| 11-09 01:25:55 | (anonymous) 0xfc7e…158d | Yes | BUY | 20 | 45¢ | $9 | 0xf91ce7… |
| 11-09 01:25:49 | (anonymous) 0xfc7e…158d | Yes | BUY | 20 | 46¢ | $9 | 0x4db77a… |
| 11-09 01:25:49 | (anonymous) 0xef13…63d9 | No | BUY | 20 | 54¢ | $11 | 0x4db77a… |
| 11-04 23:19:42 | Third-Odyssey 0xa53b…4021 | No | BUY | 21 | 59¢ | $12 | 0x1435b8… |
| 11-04 23:19:42 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 41¢ | $9 | 0x1435b8… |
| 11-03 11:30:06 | (anonymous) 0x305d…c253 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 39¢ | $8 | 0xefad6d… |
| 11-03 11:30:06 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 38¢ | $8 | 0x37a809… |