Ill-Range — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$56

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

33.0%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

4,235 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$174

$8.83K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$24

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-06 13:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 212 days

Categories

Other

52% 36% -$17

Crypto

34% 53% -$24

Politics

13% 54% -$183

Tech

0% 50% -$2

Sports

0% 40% -$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	+5	$4	94¢	$5	+$1	10-08 15:14
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026?	No	+5	$4	89¢	$4	+$0	10-08 15:33
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?	No	+5	$4	84¢	$4	+$1	10-08 17:41
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	+100	$5	2¢	$2	-$3	11-05 08:56
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+10	$2	21¢	$2	$0	11-06 13:17
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+2	$2	93¢	$2	$0	11-06 13:11
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	+5	$2	32¢	$2	$0	11-06 07:59
Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+6	$2	22¢	$1	$0	10-27 08:42
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	+50	$2	2¢	$1	-$1	11-05 11:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	11	$267	1,010	1,010	+0	No	+$6	06-09 20:17
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4?	18	$186	197	197	+0	Yes	+$181	05-04 17:15
highest temperature in seoul on january 10 8c	5	$184	123	158	-35	Yes	+$96	01-10 09:14
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9?	10	$97	50	50	+0	Yes	+$0	06-09 08:21
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 2?	8	$70	102	71	+31	Yes	+$23	07-02 18:05
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8?	2	$56	50	50	+0	Yes	+$38	06-08 17:33
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11?	3	$56	50	50	+0	Yes	+$37	06-11 22:23
highest temperature in london on january 20 10c	4	$55	40	40	+0	Yes	+$25	01-20 22:05
highest temperature in seoul on january 20 neg 6c	2	$54	50	50	+0	Yes	+$42	01-20 08:25
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	2	$48	178	0	+178	No	-$48	10-09 05:34
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 5?	7	$45	31	31	+0	Yes	+$0	05-05 17:07
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	3	$42	527	0	+527	No	-$42	01-26 07:54
highest temperature in seoul on january 12 7c	6	$42	220	0	+220	No	-$42	01-11 14:41
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 11 311	2	$42	22	22	+0	Yes	+$2	01-12 09:53
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C or below on July 15?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	07-15 09:51
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 11?	2	$39	20	20	+0	Yes	+$1	06-11 07:51
lowest temperature in seoul on april 15 2026 11c	5	$37	23	23	+0	No	-$1	04-14 15:15
highest temperature in london on january 13 11c	1	$37	37	0	+37	Yes	+$0	01-13 17:26
highest temperature in london on january 21 11c	3	$36	20	20	+0	No	+$2	01-21 13:14
highest temperature in seoul on january 13 1corhigher	3	$34	37	0	+37	Yes	+$3	01-12 09:56
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	10	$32	28	28	+0	Yes	-$3	03-25 11:58
highest temperature in seoul on january 12 5c	5	$32	140	0	+140	No	-$32	01-12 06:58
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4?	11	$32	143	143	+0	No	+$16	05-04 17:56
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by january 18	2	$31	21	21	+0	Yes	+$11	01-19 08:06
highest temperature in london on january 6 4corhigher	1	$31	35	0	+35	Yes	+$4	01-05 13:34
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	1	$31	0	40	-40	Yes	+$31	01-05 13:33
highest temperature in seoul on february 6 2026 neg 4c	3	$29	24	24	+0	Yes	+$18	02-06 12:44
highest temperature in london on april 18 2026 16c	4	$28	88	21	+67	Yes	+$71	04-18 15:13
will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 6 2026	4	$27	14	14	+0	Yes	+$0	06-07 04:56
highest temperature in seoul on april 23 2026 22c	3	$26	16	16	+0	Yes	+$6	04-23 07:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 13:17:45	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0xa2d94a…
11-06 13:11:12	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xa76b4a…
11-06 07:59:37	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x760ca2…
11-05 12:31:01	Will Celtic FC win on 2026-11-05?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xb35680…
11-05 11:31:09	Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Tereza Valentova vs Alexandra Eala	Tereza Valentova	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xba6559…
11-05 11:30:42	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0xd3809b…
11-05 08:56:22	Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x0cbf99…
11-02 10:45:27	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x093613…
11-02 10:21:10	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$1	0xb81447…
11-02 10:01:46	Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$1	0xf8e56b…
10-29 08:38:11	Will Joint List win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x41ffcc…
10-28 04:48:01	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x4cccf1…
10-27 14:22:54	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x6b48f3…
10-27 08:42:39	Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x78f023…
10-26 18:14:15	Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0xedb478…
10-26 08:56:54	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x985c40…
10-26 08:56:35	Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x0b9a8a…
10-26 08:56:29	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x54c29e…
10-23 07:14:18	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x42fad2…
10-23 07:13:03	Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0xed6c1d…
10-23 07:12:54	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x58eee5…
10-19 13:31:36	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xffdea6…
10-19 12:46:09	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by at least 80%?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$1	0xcc066e…
10-19 07:21:48	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by at least 80%?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$1	0xf98ffd…
10-15 12:20:34	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on October 15?	No	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x1898ea…
10-15 11:36:46	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x9deb10…
10-15 07:03:17	Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x309d8e…
10-14 10:49:28	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	28	1¢	$0	0x2bba81…
10-14 10:49:20	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0x4e410d…
10-14 10:49:16	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$0	0xa732fc…
10-14 07:59:46	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xeb1bb8…
10-13 13:25:53	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x2fafc1…
10-13 12:55:20	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x75d373…
10-13 10:57:08	Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x191143…
10-13 08:10:34	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x9256f2…
10-13 07:26:01	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xea7b93…
10-12 14:23:24	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x6b7865…
10-12 14:04:36	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xb13b1e…
10-12 14:03:45	Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xbab760…
10-12 13:45:59	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x1b0d8e…
10-12 13:28:30	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xf1403c…
10-12 13:16:08	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x624fe1…
10-12 13:11:45	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x6cf5f4…
10-12 12:03:03	Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x2b99ab…
10-09 05:34:23	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	144	27¢	$39	0x3000e7…
10-09 04:16:24	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	26¢	$9	0x834f1e…
10-09 00:00:11	Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xfac165…
10-08 20:04:33	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	76	0¢	$0	0x5b7e20…
10-08 17:41:32	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x0fb38b…
10-08 17:17:06	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa73955…
10-08 17:17:06	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	19	0¢	$0	0xa68252…
10-08 15:33:15	Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x1e3bab…
10-08 15:14:05	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xe7ba86…
10-08 14:52:50	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x44c083…
10-08 14:45:02	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	15	9¢	$1	0x4c7128…
10-08 14:24:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x83b48d…
10-08 13:59:51	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0xcef2b3…
10-08 13:59:51	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x875d33…
10-08 13:48:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x1fb12e…
10-08 12:54:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xbb8e07…
10-08 12:50:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x3287a2…
10-08 12:49:24	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xdb645d…
10-08 11:59:38	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	68	0¢	$0	0x67d751…
10-08 11:55:57	Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xad47f0…
10-08 11:40:18	Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	3¢	$3	0xcc9003…
10-08 11:39:48	Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	107	2¢	$2	0x56bf98…
10-08 11:39:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0xc2adc6…
10-08 11:39:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x39fb8a…
10-08 11:31:08	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0xbc4c03…
10-08 11:19:48	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xaa06be…
10-08 11:17:11	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x8bc398…
10-08 11:14:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x1e1979…
10-08 11:06:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xb20207…
10-08 11:03:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0xd59ab9…
10-08 11:03:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x0925b9…
10-08 10:37:21	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x95e6bf…
10-08 10:35:20	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	17	2¢	$0	0x4654c0…
10-08 10:34:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x1e8048…
10-08 10:33:08	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x98bfe0…
10-08 10:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x697c24…
10-08 09:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xb202ed…
10-08 09:38:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	46¢	$1	0x53dd35…
10-08 09:33:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x6b8516…
09-11 11:41:33	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on September 11?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x7e6b57…
09-11 10:58:12	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on September 11?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x192a6d…
09-11 10:18:57	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on September 11?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x93a35b…
09-11 10:15:49	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on September 11?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0xeb989b…
07-23 09:25:45	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	16	33¢	$5	0x8bb1f8…
07-23 09:25:13	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	18	33¢	$6	0x5f9838…
07-23 09:16:54	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0xbef743…
07-23 08:56:25	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x3c8de2…
07-23 08:56:18	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xa69247…
07-23 08:55:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xde70a1…
07-23 08:55:09	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x9c8459…
07-23 08:55:03	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x857cdb…
07-23 08:55:03	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x6ede83…
07-23 08:54:07	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x15b6cd…
07-23 08:54:00	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x06b45b…
07-23 08:53:58	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x13d0fa…
07-23 08:53:42	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xc8f818…