Immaterial-Selfconfidence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$508

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

21.2%

Resolved

373

Trades

1,595

lifetime

Volume

$7.13K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$76

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-28 23:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 84 days

Categories

Other

64% 17% -$241

Politics

28% 23% -$233

Tech

5% 10% -$17

Crypto

2% 11% -$17

Sports

1% 50% -$1

Pop-Culture

0% 50% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 66 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	+42	$35	92¢	$39	+$4	10-28 00:07
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	+36	$15	80¢	$29	+$14	05-30 18:56
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	-5	-$5	93¢	$-5	+$0	08-26 17:00
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	+179	$17	2¢	$4	-$13	05-08 14:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	5	$98	130	0	+130	Yes	-$98	01-08 21:06
will russia strike kyiv on february 8 2026	11	$71	74	74	+0	No	+$5	02-08 18:57
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD?	4	$65	135	135	+0	No	-$3	10-05 18:28
will russia strike kyiv on february 3 2026	8	$56	32	32	+0	Yes	+$4	02-02 22:55
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$53	30	30	+0	No	+$6	04-03 00:02
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$47	27	27	+0	No	+$7	03-25 16:44
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?	8	$44	63	63	+0	open	—	09-24 21:54
Will Rick Devens win Big Brother season 28?	2	$43	50	50	+0	Yes	-$2	10-01 00:05
will openais frontier output token price be at or below 30 in 2026	5	$42	70	70	+0	open	—	10-15 00:35
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	7	$40	49	49	+0	Yes	-$1	09-11 23:37
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	4	$36	40	40	+0	open	—	10-28 22:18
Will over 58 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?	6	$35	40	40	+0	open	—	09-14 21:50
Will 0 Independents be elected to Congress in 2026?	4	$35	40	40	+0	open	—	10-11 00:49
will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt4 before 2027	5	$35	55	55	+0	open	—	10-01 23:58
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	2	$35	42	0	+42	open	—	10-28 00:07
Will Kevin Steele be the FL-14 Republican nominee?	6	$34	50	50	+0	No	+$3	07-23 22:07
Will Haniff Hoosen be the next mayor of eThekwini?	6	$33	60	60	+0	open	—	10-22 23:30
Will Lacy and Marlon have between 50 and 99 Warzone deaths during the marathon?	5	$33	40	40	+0	Yes	-$1	09-02 20:44
Will Vicentinho Júnior win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election?	4	$32	75	75	+0	Yes	-$2	10-16 18:29
Will Marianne Meed Ward win the 2026 Burlington mayoral election?	5	$32	42	42	+0	Yes	-$2	10-09 00:50
Will Artyom Zdunov win the 2026 Mordovia gubernatorial elections?	3	$31	20	20	+0	Yes	+$5	07-24 20:41
will wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027 20260723171611669	3	$31	17	17	+0	open	—	10-21 01:17
Will SNSD win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?	4	$30	40	40	+0	Yes	-$6	09-11 23:13
Will Jay Clayton be Trump's AI czar?	4	$30	40	40	+0	Yes	+$0	10-01 20:44
total internet blackout in iran by july 31 2026	8	$29	40	22	+18	Yes	-$2	06-12 10:32
Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	8	$29	41	41	+0	No	-$4	09-13 11:07
Will Lacy and Marlon have 100 or more Fortnite deaths during the marathon?	7	$29	110	110	+0	No	-$5	09-07 00:54
Will Bekim Sejdiu be the next President of Kosovo?	5	$29	40	40	+0	No	-$2	09-26 22:41
laptop fdv above 750m one day after launch	4	$29	40	40	+0	No	$0	09-09 21:08
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	5	$28	40	40	+0	Yes	-$2	10-11 22:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 23:50:37	Will PP win the most seats in Cádiz in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x54da26…
10-28 22:18:35	Will PP win the most seats in Cádiz in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xa86863…
10-28 22:18:08	Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0xc82a8c…
10-28 22:16:19	Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xb421a7…
10-28 21:35:41	Will PP win the most seats in Albacete in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0xcde930…
10-28 21:21:44	Will PP win the most seats in Albacete in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xcd00ae…
10-28 20:33:04	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	32	49¢	$16	0xb4cf59…
10-28 00:07:24	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x7ba3ed…
10-28 00:06:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x75cc21…
10-27 22:46:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x2f73f4…
10-27 22:46:21	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x83db0f…
10-26 00:14:56	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xd62591…
10-25 23:37:35	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xc7cd27…
10-25 23:37:24	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x38394b…
10-25 23:20:23	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x34710e…
10-25 23:11:48	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x0fdc08…
10-25 23:03:41	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xeb2cd9…
10-25 22:59:15	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x207bc2…
10-25 22:46:17	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xe9f8d2…
10-25 22:43:39	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x08acb4…
10-25 22:41:02	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xb0261c…
10-23 08:55:53	Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0xed672f…
10-23 01:16:48	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x2bc45c…
10-23 01:02:41	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x6dcc82…
10-23 00:54:27	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x1264a8…
10-22 23:58:12	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-01 House election by 6%-9%?	Yes	SELL	18	21¢	$4	0xebe10c…
10-22 23:58:09	Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x06ff9a…
10-22 23:49:59	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-01 House election by 6%-9%?	Yes	SELL	2	27¢	$0	0x8a0b58…
10-22 23:49:47	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-01 House election by 6%-9%?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x364350…
10-22 23:30:20	Will Haniff Hoosen be the next mayor of eThekwini?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x3eea89…
10-22 22:44:05	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	No	SELL	18	43¢	$8	0x0a75f9…
10-22 22:36:00	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	No	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x214ddd…
10-22 22:35:50	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x168a7f…
10-22 21:55:24	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xc4db8b…
10-22 21:18:02	Will Haniff Hoosen be the next mayor of eThekwini?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xa5d4be…
10-22 21:02:39	Will the Democratic Party control the Pennsylvania Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0xb744d2…
10-22 20:40:39	Will the Democratic Party control the Pennsylvania Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x465ae4…
10-22 20:39:54	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	SELL	17	39¢	$7	0x904b05…
10-22 20:39:53	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x397f5e…
10-22 20:39:44	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x86bccc…
10-22 19:32:32	Will Zinedine Zidane attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	SELL	21	19¢	$4	0xc3b15b…
10-22 18:25:48	Will Zinedine Zidane attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x521f8a…
10-22 01:25:54	Will Marvell Q3 Data Center revenue be above $2.7B?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0xce0ee9…
10-22 01:08:18	Will Marvell Q3 Data Center revenue be above $2.7B?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xa0de95…
10-21 22:31:18	Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x3a9298…
10-21 21:32:29	Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x383d73…
10-21 21:31:05	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x5e5cd8…
10-21 21:30:23	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xffe2df…
10-21 21:21:45	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $25 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x26bc44…
10-21 21:19:26	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4.75-5.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	1	32¢	$0	0xc6302d…
10-21 21:19:12	Will Ben Rice lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in home runs?	Yes	SELL	0	29¢	$0	0x63e063…
10-21 21:18:32	Walmart (WMT) Q3 US eCommerce sales growth 21% to 25%?	Yes	SELL	8	25¢	$2	0x1859e6…
10-21 21:18:03	Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xa844fd…
10-21 21:16:48	Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31?	No	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x83150e…
10-21 21:14:29	Walmart (WMT) Q3 US eCommerce sales growth 21% to 25%?	Yes	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0x5e0a57…
10-21 20:54:12	Will Ben Rice lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in home runs?	Yes	BUY	0	37¢	$0	0xfc242a…
10-21 20:50:30	Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x8be1ee…
10-21 20:46:41	Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31?	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x8cf76c…
10-21 20:19:59	Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0xdc06e0…
10-21 20:17:09	Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x94e4cf…
10-21 19:53:45	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4.75-5.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	1	36¢	$0	0x9bf5c1…
10-21 18:45:36	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $25 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x36482c…
10-21 18:07:18	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	10¢	$1	0xfa4337…
10-21 18:07:09	Will the KT Wiz win the 2026 Korean Series?	No	SELL	18	39¢	$7	0xdaf06f…
10-21 18:00:26	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0x8c8374…
10-21 18:00:26	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x8a198a…
10-21 17:48:00	Will the KT Wiz win the 2026 Korean Series?	No	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0xc81448…
10-21 17:47:41	Will the KT Wiz win the 2026 Korean Series?	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x7d5205…
10-21 17:41:24	Will voter turnout be between 72% and 74% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x210f6c…
10-21 17:22:41	Will voter turnout be between 72% and 74% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x9e542a…
10-21 17:05:02	Will the Democrats win Greenville County in the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x37f22a…
10-21 17:04:33	Will the Democrats win Greenville County in the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x12c1bc…
10-21 16:05:32	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?	No	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0xa68ba1…
10-21 16:02:27	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x8f9322…
10-21 01:17:08	Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	SELL	17	97¢	$17	0x76b4ad…
10-21 00:06:36	Will China’s CPI increase by between 1.1% and 1.2% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0x0aa34f…
10-21 00:02:02	Will China’s CPI increase by between 1.1% and 1.2% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	13¢	$0	0x89b96d…
10-20 23:40:03	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-06 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x439b3d…
10-20 22:27:47	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-06 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x4e122e…
10-20 21:54:50	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 6.5% to 8%?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x2a8cd8…
10-20 21:33:05	Will Vicentinho Júnior win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial second round by at least 4%?	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xaa1483…
10-20 21:03:17	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 6.5% to 8%?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x7b75d8…
10-20 20:49:54	Will Vicentinho Júnior win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial second round by at least 4%?	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x01dca7…
10-20 20:29:56	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xfc332d…
10-20 20:27:21	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x421756…
10-20 20:25:17	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	29¢	$4	0xbb14d4…
10-20 20:10:35	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0xe8c6fe…
10-20 19:58:15	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Michoacán Congress election?	No	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x01abfb…
10-20 19:55:29	Will Barcelona finish first in UCL league phase?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0xcd5856…
10-20 19:52:42	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Michoacán Congress election?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x91984e…
10-20 19:48:33	Will Barcelona finish first in UCL league phase?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x55795b…
10-20 19:13:24	Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $3.00T and $3.50T at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0xf7bb1b…
10-20 19:12:33	Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $3.00T and $3.50T at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0xc2060b…
10-20 19:12:27	Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $3.00T and $3.50T at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x24b83c…
10-20 18:05:32	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 global unit case volume growth 3.5% to 4.5%?	Yes	SELL	4	18¢	$1	0xeb18a5…
10-20 17:54:12	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 global unit case volume growth 3.5% to 4.5%?	Yes	BUY	4	22¢	$1	0x4f9dd9…
10-20 01:08:59	Will Texas Instruments (TXN) Q3 Analog revenue be above $5.25B?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xc765ea…
10-20 00:29:41	Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x8d1151…
10-20 00:08:51	Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x9aa0d4…
10-19 23:42:26	Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	17¢	$8	0xfcb90e…