0xfffadf38a520cd5a0035ff52d7fceb436a08864b 0xfffadf…08864b
whale hot
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$143.9K
Unrealized P&L
+$87.7K
Hit rate
76.2%
Resolved
181
Trades
9,275
lifetime
Volume
$9.68M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1.04K
Open exposure
$652.7K
22 positions
First seen
2026-01-05
last 10-28 14:03
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 94 days
Categories
Other
47% 69% +$30,491
Politics
32% 74% +$62,446
Sports
21% 64% +$50,934
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
68 active days in 12wk • peak 207 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? No +260,299 $217,461 94¢ $243.4K +$25,918 10-27 07:23
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026 No +164,004 $138,665 97¢ $159.8K +$21,157 10-26 11:11
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +43,980 $37,603 94¢ $41.1K +$3,518 09-01 02:54
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +34,774 $29,135 85¢ $29.7K +$544 10-28 11:30
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No +28,954 $27,119 100¢ $28.8K +$1,719 10-12 08:39
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +27,191 $24,333 95¢ $25.8K +$1,498 10-06 19:39
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +28,213 $24,089 85¢ $24.0K -$108 10-20 13:30
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +24,000 $5,024 94¢ $22.7K +$17,656 10-28 14:03
Iran leadership change by November 30? No +21,079 $19,488 92¢ $19.3K -$201 10-28 11:29
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? No +12,074 $11,103 100¢ $12.0K +$941 09-24 11:03
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? No +8,285 $7,021 92¢ $7.7K +$643 10-20 13:25
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes +10,231 $9,105 70¢ $7.2K -$1,892 10-04 18:00
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No +9,734 $8,663 71¢ $6.9K -$1,752 10-07 10:44
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No +6,298 $5,941 96¢ $6.0K +$108 10-20 13:27
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +5,765 $4,036 78¢ $4.5K +$432 10-13 15:00
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? No +4,411 $4,146 98¢ $4.3K +$154 10-20 13:26
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +5,908 $3,899 72¢ $4.2K +$325 10-04 17:40
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +4,871 -$385 82¢ $4.0K +$4,404 10-04 17:36
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? No +1,238 $1,181 100¢ $1.2K +$55 10-18 08:37
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +0 -$11,311 96¢ $0 +$11,311 06-16 09:35
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +0 -$690 60¢ $0 +$690 08-11 12:05
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026? No +0 -$550 100¢ $0 +$550 09-16 03:47