Common-Tributary — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$116

Unrealized P&L

+$34

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,467

lifetime

Volume

$851.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$345

Open exposure

$66

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-30 22:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

54% — —

Other

34% 100% +$116

Crypto

7% 100% +$1

Tech

2% — —

Sports

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes		+268	$32	24¢	$66	+$34	06-30 22:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	8	$42.7K	21,433	21,433	+0	open	—	05-23 15:59
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	9	$35.9K	28,000	8,000	+20,000	open	—	03-02 10:11
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	3	$27.7K	28,000	0	+28,000	open	—	06-03 13:02
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	1	$24.9K	25,000	0	+25,000	open	—	06-17 01:51
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	44	$23.9K	28,000	13,000	+15,000	open	—	04-08 03:55
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	6	$20.9K	18,000	3,000	+15,000	open	—	03-12 15:58
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	14	$20.9K	20,000	7,000	+13,000	open	—	03-29 00:19
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	6	$20.9K	21,000	0	+21,000	open	—	04-08 20:37
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	1	$20.0K	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	02-09 14:47
will big ai be out as 1 free app in the us apple store by april 3 362 772	3	$19.9K	20,035	0	+20,035	open	—	03-08 07:34
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	4	$17.9K	9,000	9,000	+0	open	—	03-01 09:07
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	36	$16.8K	14,944	3,000	+11,944	open	—	02-03 11:37
microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025	5	$16.2K	9,000	7,187	+1,813	open	—	01-03 15:30
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	1	$15.0K	15,001	0	+15,001	open	—	06-30 18:04
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?	45	$14.9K	13,282	13,282	+0	open	—	01-05 14:08
will iran strike israel on march 3	166	$14.0K	14,000	0	+14,000	open	—	03-05 18:05
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	34	$13.6K	13,500	3,500	+10,000	open	—	04-22 17:18
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	37	$13.4K	21,500	21,500	+0	open	—	04-21 01:55
will iran strike israel on march 10	15	$13.3K	12,270	4,250	+8,020	open	—	03-14 13:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	9	$12.7K	13,011	0	+13,011	open	—	04-29 18:18
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	6	$12.1K	6,080	6,080	+0	open	—	01-03 15:41
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	49	$11.6K	7,000	7,000	+0	open	—	04-12 13:09
Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale?	14	$11.6K	6,549	6,549	+0	open	—	01-05 17:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$10.0K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	05-15 04:36
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?	2	$9.9K	9,955	0	+9,955	open	—	06-30 13:04
will melania say career during ai talk on friday	1	$9.9K	9,931	0	+9,931	open	—	01-20 16:27
will israel take military action in gaza on march 18 2026	11	$9.7K	10,990	2,990	+8,000	open	—	03-20 09:48
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	54	$9.4K	11,787	2,343	+9,444	open	—	05-19 17:58
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$9.1K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	04-25 15:52
will chatgpt be out as the 1 free app in the us apple store by february 28	1	$8.5K	8,737	0	+8,737	open	—	02-19 05:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 22:43:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	131	23¢	$30	0x3683b9…
06-30 22:05:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	23¢	$29	0x58848f…
06-30 22:05:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	23¢	$14	0x628e38…
06-30 18:04:01	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15,001	100¢	$14,986	0x80be70…
06-30 13:04:23	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?	No	BUY	9,947	100¢	$9,937	0xdfb87e…
06-30 13:03:34	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x187f4e…
06-30 13:02:20	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x88c3c6…
06-29 08:18:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	978	26¢	$254	0x28dedb…
06-29 03:55:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	26¢	$6	0x35f845…
06-29 03:36:02	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	Yes	SELL	500	8¢	$42	0x660688…
06-28 19:17:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	474	23¢	$109	0x2ee0cf…
06-28 18:05:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	260	23¢	$60	0x105f03…
06-28 16:33:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	23¢	$7	0xa2eaf7…
06-28 09:58:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x025f6b…
06-28 08:51:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x9460f0…
06-28 08:51:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	23¢	$21	0x6e13b2…
06-27 13:22:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	23¢	$9	0x868443…
06-24 08:08:19	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xdff6aa…
06-24 07:33:23	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	Yes	BUY	54	14¢	$8	0x3fd625…
06-24 03:44:58	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	Yes	BUY	49	14¢	$7	0xfc40b5…
06-23 22:05:16	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	Yes	BUY	390	14¢	$55	0x419d52…
06-18 12:52:43	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	504	13¢	$66	0xe16996…
06-18 11:39:13	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x6535a1…
06-18 11:38:59	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0x242272…
06-18 11:33:50	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	1,000	13¢	$130	0x886459…
06-18 11:33:11	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	2,488	14¢	$344	0x777866…
06-17 10:35:41	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	SELL	1,000	20¢	$202	0x6c9cae…
06-17 10:21:59	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	BUY	300	30¢	$90	0x29dce2…
06-17 10:20:31	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	BUY	700	30¢	$210	0xcfb423…
06-17 08:26:11	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	SELL	2,000	50¢	$1,000	0xff3e83…
06-17 05:30:55	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	BUY	1,000	20¢	$200	0xe1a421…
06-17 05:20:13	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	BUY	775	29¢	$225	0x72ac7f…
06-17 05:07:31	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	BUY	225	29¢	$65	0x86f7d2…
06-17 01:51:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	25,000	100¢	$24,950	0x139cd8…
06-09 02:49:58	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	Yes	SELL	199	89¢	$177	0x300f45…
06-09 02:49:57	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x3e4221…
06-07 19:22:57	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	BUY	398	97¢	$387	0x64530e…
06-07 17:23:06	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	200	33¢	$67	0xe6673f…
06-07 17:06:37	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	BUY	1,071	97¢	$1,041	0x46538f…
06-07 16:00:45	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0xcc79de…
06-07 15:42:36	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x2ad2a6…
06-07 15:41:16	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	BUY	513	97¢	$499	0x1c3249…
06-04 10:25:06	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	SELL	33	80¢	$27	0xe2253f…
06-03 13:02:09	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,988	0x26c760…
06-03 12:08:27	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x97a3ce…
06-02 10:58:47	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	99¢	$4,940	0x6dc6cd…
06-02 10:44:02	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20,000	99¢	$19,780	0x4bf2a9…
06-01 04:57:17	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	78¢	$13	0xe0e413…
06-01 04:53:34	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	78¢	$11	0x97d500…
06-01 04:52:49	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	470	78¢	$368	0xc02221…
06-01 04:29:06	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	74¢	$83	0x6fb893…
06-01 04:00:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	74¢	$47	0x63f81e…
06-01 03:26:48	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	324	74¢	$240	0x874377…
05-27 16:20:43	Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?	No	BUY	300	73¢	$218	0x11ee78…
05-24 12:02:37	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	955	51¢	$487	0xa86626…
05-24 11:58:34	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	21	51¢	$10	0x635396…
05-24 11:56:10	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	25	51¢	$13	0x83d4ea…
05-23 23:11:08	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	555	63¢	$350	0x52acb4…
05-23 19:13:22	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xaa430c…
05-23 19:13:01	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x8ac8ee…
05-23 19:13:01	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x030503…
05-23 19:12:59	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0xf0b254…
05-23 19:12:59	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x8cb011…
05-23 19:12:59	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x68f79f…
05-23 19:12:57	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	468	63¢	$295	0x7c0e4b…
05-23 15:59:21	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	1,433	100¢	$1,430	0x876673…
05-23 14:26:01	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0xf87c49…
05-23 14:25:12	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	250	100¢	$249	0x25db48…
05-23 14:24:23	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	835	100¢	$832	0xd8df23…
05-23 14:24:03	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	108	100¢	$107	0x3ab518…
05-23 14:23:41	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xd948d7…
05-23 13:33:50	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	20,000	100¢	$19,920	0xa4cf52…
05-23 13:31:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	20,000	100¢	$19,920	0x09c352…
05-23 11:50:02	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x4f7716…
05-23 11:46:47	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x18a936…
05-23 11:15:47	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x4e8ec8…
05-23 11:15:19	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	790	61¢	$482	0x2f59a8…
05-22 16:46:07	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	193	35¢	$68	0x68b45e…
05-22 16:43:20	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	246	35¢	$86	0xdc0c3d…
05-22 16:39:03	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	154	35¢	$54	0xe7426e…
05-22 16:39:03	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	223	35¢	$78	0x08a174…
05-22 16:37:41	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	183	35¢	$64	0xd2e87e…
05-19 17:58:10	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	286	99¢	$282	0x3c57d6…
05-16 16:38:40	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	No	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0x3b205d…
05-16 16:10:47	Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	18	70¢	$13	0xf0b2d1…
05-16 11:29:05	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1,006	94¢	$948	0xf70eb2…
05-16 11:28:53	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	217	94¢	$204	0x194deb…
05-16 11:28:51	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1,089	94¢	$1,026	0x4cd2cf…
05-16 06:21:21	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	651	94¢	$613	0x091c20…
05-16 06:20:53	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	37	94¢	$35	0xe49eaa…
05-16 00:58:58	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	3,191	97¢	$3,102	0xcd5a52…
05-16 00:58:49	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1,809	97¢	$1,758	0xbffcfa…
05-15 15:56:53	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	57	24¢	$14	0xa83152…
05-15 13:51:29	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	343	33¢	$112	0xd486fc…
05-15 06:32:07	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	354	20¢	$71	0x6b1a66…
05-15 06:31:48	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	646	20¢	$129	0xd23c18…
05-15 05:54:14	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	550	90¢	$495	0x0f93df…
05-15 05:46:13	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	38	90¢	$34	0x148641…
05-15 05:35:46	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0x5e6c52…
05-15 05:35:17	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	197	90¢	$177	0xcfc192…