Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.45K

Unrealized P&L

+$698

Hit rate

98.4%

Resolved

Trades

597

lifetime

Volume

$338.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$566

Open exposure

$42.1K

7 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 10-27 01:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Other

69% 100% +$3,802

Politics

29% 100% +$1,698

Sports

1% 0% -$52

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	+13,171	$12,973	100¢	$13.1K	+$139	10-26 16:00
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	+8,000	$7,665	97¢	$7.7K	+$67	10-24 02:15
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+8,000	$7,375	92¢	$7.4K	+$25	10-27 01:52
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	+5,250	$5,216	100¢	$5.2K	+$29	10-19 13:27
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	+4,665	$4,257	98¢	$4.6K	+$312	05-23 13:38
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+3,000	$2,770	94¢	$2.8K	+$35	10-26 16:22
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+1,294	$1,175	98¢	$1.3K	+$91	05-25 11:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	88	$44.5K	45,290	0	+45,290	No	+$832	10-09 02:28
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	22	$40.3K	41,000	0	+41,000	No	+$661	05-18 17:24
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	90	$36.2K	37,409	0	+37,409	No	+$1,181	06-11 01:17
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	55	$35.8K	36,000	0	+36,000	No	+$237	07-22 15:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$19.9K	20,000	0	+20,000	No	+$60	07-01 23:48
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	24	$13.0K	13,171	0	+13,171	open	—	10-26 16:00
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	39	$12.9K	13,000	0	+13,000	No	+$92	06-15 22:58
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	18	$12.7K	13,257	0	+13,257	No	+$576	04-19 02:12
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	24	$10.9K	11,000	0	+11,000	No	+$98	09-10 13:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$10.0K	10,000	0	+10,000	No	+$30	05-15 15:27
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	7	$9.5K	10,000	0	+10,000	Yes	+$460	09-11 08:53
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	28	$7.9K	8,000	0	+8,000	No	+$98	09-27 11:52
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	14	$7.8K	8,000	0	+8,000	No	+$161	09-20 17:16
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	30	$7.7K	8,000	0	+8,000	open	—	10-24 02:15
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	5	$7.4K	8,000	0	+8,000	open	—	10-27 01:52
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	37	$6.7K	7,000	0	+7,000	No	+$274	05-11 14:34
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	4	$6.0K	6,050	0	+6,050	No	+$42	06-17 13:22
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	14	$5.2K	5,250	0	+5,250	open	—	10-19 13:27
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$4.9K	5,001	0	+5,001	No	+$60	04-17 16:03
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$4.9K	5,000	0	+5,000	Yes	+$63	06-23 20:28
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$4.9K	2,500	2,500	+0	No	-$52	07-02 01:07
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	7	$4.3K	4,665	0	+4,665	open	—	05-23 13:38
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	4	$3.8K	4,000	0	+4,000	No	+$194	05-17 21:01
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	8	$3.0K	2,995	0	+2,995	No	+$38	06-23 05:24
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	14	$2.9K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$58	08-20 19:30
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	6	$2.8K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	10-26 16:22
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	8	$2.4K	2,500	0	+2,500	No	+$94	07-18 05:29
kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	1	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$18	06-17 23:59
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	8	$1.8K	1,832	0	+1,832	No	+$27	04-24 14:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	1	$1.5K	1,500	0	+1,500	No	+$30	05-09 22:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 01:52:53	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	500	93¢	$465	0x723da4…
10-26 16:22:21	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	500	93¢	$465	0x6129ff…
10-26 16:00:59	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	171	98¢	$168	0x1110a8…
10-25 22:17:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	500	98¢	$490	0x0f205c…
10-24 02:15:35	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	250	95¢	$238	0xa39df8…
10-23 22:39:33	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	2,500	92¢	$2,300	0xa97ba6…
10-23 21:53:23	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$494	0xd97d3d…
10-23 13:24:02	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$494	0xda4049…
10-23 09:17:20	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	2,000	92¢	$1,840	0xc95a77…
10-23 07:22:05	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$494	0x7929b7…
10-23 06:25:59	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x3b6801…
10-23 05:08:17	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	492	99¢	$487	0xd4b468…
10-22 02:37:35	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	2,000	92¢	$1,840	0xcccd82…
10-22 02:30:26	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0x8a1c40…
10-22 01:17:09	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	500	94¢	$470	0xd3d9b4…
10-19 13:27:42	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	249	100¢	$248	0xede47d…
10-19 13:00:30	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb809d9…
10-17 21:00:41	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	250	96¢	$239	0xdc2b53…
10-17 12:32:38	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	250	96¢	$240	0x2dc2c3…
10-17 11:51:08	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	160	96¢	$154	0x771782…
10-17 08:56:56	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	90	96¢	$86	0xc61bb8…
10-16 16:41:54	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	500	98¢	$492	0xdaec77…
10-16 14:55:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$493	0x400855…
10-14 11:35:44	kharg island no longer under iranian control by october 31	No	BUY	500	98¢	$492	0x891a28…
10-14 09:57:41	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	500	98¢	$492	0x976c47…
10-11 23:15:24	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$955	0x87e97e…
10-11 15:48:16	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	609	99¢	$604	0x88dbd3…
10-11 15:34:42	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	250	99¢	$248	0xa00f29…
10-11 15:01:18	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	136	99¢	$135	0xa837fa…
10-11 15:01:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6158be…
10-11 14:59:24	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	704	99¢	$699	0x8d81c0…
10-11 14:53:36	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0xe9fa71…
10-11 14:30:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0xb00bbb…
10-11 14:01:25	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0x017d7f…
10-11 13:48:37	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	347	99¢	$344	0x5fb792…
10-11 13:01:06	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$994	0x821580…
10-11 09:08:09	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x8d4f28…
10-11 07:05:42	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	250	96¢	$240	0x934e04…
10-11 06:58:08	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	250	96¢	$240	0x2cfca9…
10-11 01:33:00	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	4	96¢	$3	0xd20ebc…
10-10 23:55:25	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x226253…
10-10 23:52:09	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x65b0a0…
10-10 18:07:06	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xaf9265…
10-10 16:51:40	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	90	96¢	$86	0xafeb35…
10-10 08:51:13	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	193	96¢	$186	0xba826e…
10-09 22:56:52	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	495	96¢	$476	0xff1d05…
10-09 21:46:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	500	98¢	$490	0xba5923…
10-09 20:31:10	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x8a8665…
10-09 20:18:50	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	500	98¢	$490	0x28da91…
10-09 17:13:07	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	475	99¢	$468	0x14c8c8…
10-09 16:01:42	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x3b06cf…
10-09 15:01:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	1,525	99¢	$1,502	0x4170ad…
10-09 13:47:07	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	1,500	99¢	$1,479	0xa5112c…
10-09 02:28:14	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,985	0x143929…
10-09 01:18:42	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	20,000	100¢	$19,960	0xb0847f…
10-07 10:22:38	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$989	0xf2b9a1…
10-07 10:22:24	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$990	0xd2fe60…
10-05 02:49:28	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	535	99¢	$530	0x0019c9…
10-05 02:49:23	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	465	99¢	$461	0xaa1d06…
10-05 02:49:02	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	93	99¢	$92	0x8d71c0…
10-05 02:48:58	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	907	99¢	$900	0x8ea523…
10-04 20:58:55	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$993	0x8de39c…
09-29 13:37:41	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	250	98¢	$245	0x1718b5…
09-28 02:18:00	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0xb09d77…
09-27 11:52:32	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0xa0e616…
09-27 09:38:45	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	BUY	133	100¢	$132	0x8a9b50…
09-27 02:13:36	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	284	98¢	$279	0xc9c4db…
09-27 02:12:11	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	227	98¢	$223	0x233414…
09-27 02:11:45	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	526	98¢	$516	0x7f0bf7…
09-27 02:11:39	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	247	98¢	$242	0x49efee…
09-27 01:15:23	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x799dbb…
09-27 01:15:23	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x434799…
09-27 01:15:23	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x20a795…
09-27 01:15:23	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x0b9ba0…
09-27 01:15:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	BUY	683	100¢	$682	0x4fb601…
09-20 17:16:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	No	BUY	1,000	98¢	$982	0x959723…
09-17 03:18:18	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	240	96¢	$231	0x99c965…
09-17 03:17:40	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	526	96¢	$506	0xd2e0f7…
09-17 03:17:16	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	234	96¢	$225	0x7ebc1c…
09-17 03:16:52	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	480	97¢	$463	0xcf3f10…
09-17 02:52:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$988	0xc71fc5…
09-17 02:27:30	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xaa5872…
09-17 02:26:03	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x882ead…
09-17 02:05:46	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	522	99¢	$519	0x688dcc…
09-17 02:05:46	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	99¢	$398	0x0e7a48…
09-13 19:11:27	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	98¢	$1,952	0xebda4d…
09-13 16:47:25	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	98¢	$978	0x4abf31…
09-13 16:47:06	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	236	98¢	$231	0x882b3c…
09-13 16:37:34	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x653b25…
09-13 16:37:34	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	110	98¢	$108	0x39a410…
09-13 16:32:16	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	445	98¢	$436	0x6f52e3…
09-13 16:17:10	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	444	98¢	$435	0x0012c9…
09-13 12:37:46	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	92¢	$920	0x856e5a…
09-12 00:16:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x57aa01…
09-11 21:15:40	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	No	BUY	1,497	98¢	$1,470	0x30d5f6…
09-11 18:43:07	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$988	0x66988f…
09-11 11:08:07	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$989	0x8e849c…
09-11 08:53:52	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,500	99¢	$1,482	0x7f6b77…
09-11 01:51:25	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	201	93¢	$187	0xd78436…
09-11 00:44:31	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	299	93¢	$278	0xca3b20…