Fat-Deployment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.4%

Resolved

1,232

Trades

10,755

lifetime

Volume

$71.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-25

last 05-17 08:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

86% 92% $-9

Other

13% — —

Politics

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 483 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
spx opens up or down on february 6 2026	5	$1.5K	1,050	1,050	+0	open	—	02-06 15:46
will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	2	$890	840	840	+0	open	—	02-10 14:56
btc updown 15m 1770369300	2	$576	347	343	+4	open	—	02-06 09:25
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	116	$512	50,719	50,719	+0	open	—	01-31 16:44
nothing ever happens microstrategy	5	$406	282	282	+0	open	—	02-05 22:06
val tl1 ulf 2026 02 05	14	$286	160	160	+0	open	—	02-05 22:03
bun uni pau 2026 04 05 btts	5	$269	202	199	+2	open	—	04-05 15:39
lal ovi sev 2026 04 05 btts	4	$253	156	154	+2	open	—	04-05 18:57
will gold gc hit low 4700 by end of february 339 735 643 246 799 559 292 611 315 385	6	$250	150	150	+0	open	—	02-02 07:32
lal get bil 2026 04 05 btts	4	$225	154	151	+2	open	—	04-05 14:12
epl che wes 2026 01 31 draw	6	$209	550	550	+0	open	—	01-31 19:24
bitcoin above 78k on february 3	3	$204	200	200	+0	open	—	02-03 14:46
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	3	$198	429	429	+0	open	—	03-08 21:20
btc updown 5m 1772108100	27	$196	179	81	+97	open	—	02-26 12:20
si hit 120 high jan 2026 313 822 269	3	$190	202	202	+0	open	—	01-29 15:28
epl new bou 2026 04 18 btts	3	$163	85	85	+0	open	—	04-18 15:29
aus ade auc 2026 04 03 btts	5	$160	81	81	+0	open	—	04-03 10:12
aus bri syd 2026 04 02 btts	5	$157	83	83	+0	open	—	04-02 11:39
lal mad bar 2026 04 04 btts	2	$155	78	78	+0	open	—	04-04 19:49
mls tor col 2026 04 04 btts	2	$153	77	77	+0	open	—	04-04 18:55
bitcoin above 80k on february 2	7	$146	1,838	1,000	+838	open	—	02-02 16:31
will gold gc hit low 4600 by end of february 292 259 212 256 398 758 656 625 549 536	4	$144	100	100	+0	open	—	02-02 07:26
amzn quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 05 2026 1pt95	2	$143	134	134	+0	open	—	02-05 21:16
btc updown 5m 1772089500	10	$137	117	70	+47	open	—	02-26 07:11
bun moe pau 2026 03 13 moe	2	$135	90	90	+0	open	—	03-13 21:24
fif mex bel 2026 03 31 mex	28	$132	371	0	+371	open	—	04-01 02:11
spx opens up or down on january 29 2026	2	$130	16,041	16,041	+0	open	—	01-29 16:55
spx up or down on february 3 2026	2	$125	495	0	+495	open	—	02-03 15:21
fif aut kor1 2026 03 31 aut	2	$117	83	83	+0	open	—	03-31 20:20
lal ala osa 2026 04 05 draw	4	$115	62	62	+0	open	—	04-05 22:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-17 08:10:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf1df8c…
05-17 08:04:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x493f97…
05-17 07:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf1c349…
05-17 07:50:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3a988a…
05-17 07:44:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd8a535…
05-17 07:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa1cbd9…
05-17 07:39:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xaa67ec…
05-17 07:39:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x29afeb…
05-17 07:15:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x91ed07…
05-17 07:15:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	9¢	$0	0x6e2e07…
05-17 07:14:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0xd982ba…
05-17 07:14:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x3b9a9c…
05-17 07:14:57	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x40fa8d…
05-17 06:49:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x0227c7…
05-17 06:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4f8262…
05-17 06:34:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2dbc76…
05-17 06:20:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xee4c7f…
05-17 06:00:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x5e8fcf…
05-17 05:59:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x0aa4be…
05-17 05:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xab59c3…
05-17 05:49:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4cef5b…
05-17 05:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc0c924…
05-17 05:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xcdca87…
05-17 05:24:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7ec794…
05-17 05:04:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xeb41ae…
05-17 04:59:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xa4f5e7…
05-17 04:59:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x963830…
05-17 04:59:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x31385d…
05-17 04:49:57	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x6a4f02…
05-17 04:44:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xc30823…
05-17 04:19:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9d8b62…
05-17 04:14:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x958a53…
05-17 04:09:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x4806e9…
05-17 04:09:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x5f82d6…
05-17 03:59:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x2336e0…
05-17 03:54:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4c231e…
05-17 03:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	3¢	$0	0xdd79f2…
05-17 03:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0xeaca0b…
05-17 03:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x977258…
05-17 03:44:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xec8309…
05-17 03:44:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe5dc74…
05-17 03:39:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xdeeed8…
05-17 03:39:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xbc0437…
05-17 03:39:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xee7385…
05-17 03:29:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x3964ea…
05-17 03:24:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc05903…
05-17 03:19:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	91¢	$3	0x2cfc86…
05-17 03:19:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x23df61…
05-17 03:19:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc0d3f6…
05-17 03:14:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x26cf95…
05-17 03:09:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa67ce8…
05-17 03:09:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x17562d…
05-17 02:59:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x944c46…
05-17 02:59:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x7715a9…
05-17 02:59:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x709627…
05-17 02:54:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x4a5fd1…
05-17 02:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xdc88ad…
05-17 02:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x6a2fd4…
05-17 02:49:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9887da…
05-17 02:44:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x80c25c…
05-17 02:39:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf53e6b…
05-17 02:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbe2e35…
05-17 02:09:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xce292b…
05-17 02:09:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa4bfcd…
05-17 01:24:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xec5960…
05-17 01:24:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x842aec…
05-17 01:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xc27f1c…
05-17 01:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x9ac044…
05-17 01:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x194946…
05-17 00:49:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x93e612…
05-17 00:34:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9ada52…
05-17 00:29:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x19195e…
05-17 00:29:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$5	0x215d3b…
05-17 00:19:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3b7c92…
05-17 00:09:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xed5db2…
05-16 23:54:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd6028a…
05-16 23:50:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa9e23e…
05-16 23:49:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x70bf6c…
05-16 23:35:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0x45a492…
05-16 23:29:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xbe65d9…
05-16 23:14:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x0d0cee…
05-16 23:14:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xc8e0c4…
05-16 23:04:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xd618c6…
05-16 22:59:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe26dd5…
05-16 22:59:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x024335…
05-16 22:55:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x565639…
05-16 22:55:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x380219…
05-16 22:49:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x97bc81…
05-16 22:44:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x75e90f…
05-16 22:44:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x03f475…
05-16 22:39:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xdcc916…
05-16 22:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x2143a6…
05-16 22:34:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe9111d…
05-16 22:29:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x70e46c…
05-16 22:24:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0xa2d123…
05-16 22:14:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x1b895b…
05-16 22:09:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9c5ae6…
05-16 22:09:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x3fe1b0…
05-16 21:54:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xf238e7…
05-16 21:49:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9b6b93…