Late-Circle-Future — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$887

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

74.7%

Resolved

2,010

Trades

6,234

lifetime

Volume

$474.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$76

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-08

last 10-12 20:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 141 days

Categories

Other

76% 89% +$2,993

Politics

13% 24% -$503

Tech

7% 68% -$1,827

Sports

3% 33% +$54

Crypto

1% 86% +$174

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$3	98¢	$0	+$3	07-03 17:35
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+0	$0	82¢	$0	$0	06-16 20:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+0	-$3	12¢	$0	+$3	06-29 07:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bkjpn aki kos 2026 04 11	54	$6.5K	7,491	1,470	+6,022	Akita Northern Happinets	+$2,364	04-12 08:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	39	$6.2K	3,700	3,700	+0	No	-$3	06-26 13:19
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	37	$6.1K	3,766	3,766	+0	No	+$13	06-18 23:04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	46	$5.8K	3,600	3,600	+0	Yes	-$27	07-02 12:52
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	64	$5.3K	3,900	3,900	+0	Yes	-$128	07-01 19:30
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	78	$5.0K	2,960	2,960	+0	No	-$14	06-21 21:15
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	34	$5.0K	2,900	2,900	+0	Yes	-$36	06-21 19:50
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	37	$4.5K	2,917	2,917	+0	No	-$1	07-04 15:32
highest temperature in london on april 18 2026 14c	5	$3.6K	2,467	1,209	+1,258	No	+$24	04-18 12:10
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	30	$3.6K	2,248	2,248	+0	open	—	07-05 10:57
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	33	$3.4K	2,089	2,089	+0	No	+$2	06-23 13:57
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	29	$3.4K	2,100	2,100	+0	No	-$1	07-02 12:36
starmer out by june 22 2026	31	$3.4K	2,300	2,300	+0	Yes	-$50	06-22 05:53
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	30	$3.2K	2,100	2,100	+0	No	-$3	06-20 16:45
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	24	$3.1K	1,800	1,800	+0	Yes	+$9	06-22 04:28
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	16	$2.9K	1,800	1,800	+0	No	-$9	07-02 15:14
starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	27	$2.8K	1,800	1,800	+0	Yes	+$3	06-22 05:51
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	20	$2.6K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	07-03 17:35
Fed rate hike in 2026?	23	$2.5K	2,100	2,100	+0	Yes	-$120	07-05 10:58
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	29	$2.5K	1,760	1,760	+0	No	+$3	06-27 18:36
highest temperature in london on april 15 2026 15c	17	$2.4K	2,482	0	+2,482	No	+$41	04-15 10:47
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	37	$2.4K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$18	06-24 05:45
highest temperature in london on april 15 2026 16c	21	$2.3K	2,572	0	+2,572	No	+$244	04-15 12:34
highest temperature in seoul on april 17 2026 14c	5	$2.3K	2,319	0	+2,319	No	+$23	04-16 20:25
will claude opus 4pt7 by anthropic debut at a score of at least 1500 969	34	$2.2K	16,931	19,028	-2,097	No	-$1,816	04-17 18:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	14	$2.1K	1,800	1,800	+0	No	$0	06-30 15:20
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	12	$2.0K	1,200	1,200	+0	No	-$13	06-27 18:47
will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	10	$2.0K	1,149	1,149	+0	No	+$5	06-19 07:25
atp marozsa tsitsip 2026 04 13 set totals 2pt5	4	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	Over 2.5	+$0	04-15 11:54
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	15	$2.0K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$0	07-01 16:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-12 20:41:48	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	52	74¢	$38	0xb55dea…
10-12 20:41:36	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	54¢	$270	0x470893…
09-30 21:00:08	Grok (Web) Outage by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xb20f72…
09-30 20:58:09	Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	No	BUY	343	99¢	$340	0x98083b…
09-24 15:54:51	Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	281	7¢	$21	0xbaff6e…
09-24 15:54:39	Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	288	8¢	$22	0x6c7965…
09-23 18:20:43	Will there be exactly 1 ChatGPT outage in September 2026?	No	BUY	428	98¢	$419	0xe8a70a…
09-22 20:39:45	Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	68¢	$18	0x036e69…
09-22 20:39:38	Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	136	68¢	$92	0xa12818…
09-22 20:37:02	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	68¢	$36	0x23c676…
09-22 20:36:33	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	456	86¢	$392	0x16bcd0…
09-22 20:36:29	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	702	85¢	$597	0x2e3eb8…
09-22 20:35:35	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	314	92¢	$289	0x907173…
09-22 20:34:35	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	639	86¢	$549	0x2cc209…
09-22 20:14:24	Grok (Web) Outage by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	47	93¢	$44	0x76a4af…
09-22 20:13:19	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	80¢	$399	0x71ba8f…
09-22 20:12:01	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x59f5b4…
09-22 20:07:45	Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	64¢	$70	0x33787a…
09-22 20:05:34	Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	63¢	$54	0xba938b…
09-22 20:05:27	Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	210	61¢	$128	0x3228e9…
08-31 04:33:58	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 50 by August 31?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$21	0x4e197e…
08-30 20:25:12	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	98¢	$37	0xb19e87…
08-30 15:51:52	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x9409dc…
08-30 15:32:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	77¢	$35	0xcff1d9…
08-30 15:32:30	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	80¢	$62	0x254974…
08-30 14:47:52	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	132	81¢	$107	0x569607…
08-30 14:33:03	Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in August 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	99¢	$55	0x6017f9…
08-29 14:41:43	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in August 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?	Yes	BUY	176	92¢	$162	0x40e8ca…
08-29 14:41:24	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	99¢	$148	0x328c91…
08-29 14:40:58	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in August 2026 be at least 12 hours?	No	BUY	15	91¢	$13	0x53db80…
08-29 14:40:43	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0xbf6ee6…
08-29 08:52:18	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in August 2026 be at least 12 hours?	No	BUY	36	91¢	$33	0x3ca4de…
08-29 08:52:01	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	82¢	$33	0x94b089…
08-29 08:50:40	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in August 2026 be at least 12 hours?	No	BUY	130	91¢	$118	0x80f8ed…
08-29 08:50:13	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	143	83¢	$119	0xfa4e6d…
08-29 08:20:07	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in August 2026 be at least 12 hours?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x4c599a…
08-29 08:19:49	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x4998ad…
08-29 08:13:39	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in August 2026 be at least 12 hours?	No	BUY	105	90¢	$94	0xa0b0c7…
08-29 08:13:19	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in August?	No	SELL	96	99¢	$95	0xac9539…
08-28 09:02:34	Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	95¢	$5	0xad361a…
08-28 09:02:19	Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	95¢	$74	0x77ec9a…
08-28 09:02:00	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	89	90¢	$80	0x75f79f…
08-28 09:01:27	Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	95¢	$29	0x8b7e6a…
08-28 09:01:16	Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	95¢	$60	0x521721…
08-28 09:00:55	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0xf04ba3…
08-28 09:00:18	Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	94¢	$33	0xd4b3cd…
08-28 08:59:58	Will Lambda have the third highest private market valuation on August 31?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x3b2f29…
08-28 08:59:40	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xa1a756…
08-28 06:22:45	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 60 by August 31?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$9	0x455fbd…
08-28 06:19:52	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 60 by August 31?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x746e30…
08-28 06:19:42	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 60 by August 31?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xe15bc8…
08-28 06:19:31	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 60 by August 31?	No	BUY	120	94¢	$113	0xa1b8ca…
08-28 06:19:10	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	163	99¢	$161	0xfccdb7…
08-24 11:49:16	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in August?	No	BUY	96	88¢	$84	0x3928c1…
08-22 19:56:03	Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x6be545…
08-22 19:51:42	Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	60	96¢	$57	0x2742bf…
08-22 19:43:18	Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	150	63¢	$94	0xa71803…
08-22 07:44:15	Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in August 2026?	Yes	SELL	93	97¢	$90	0xa388b1…
08-22 06:53:52	Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	240	88¢	$211	0xbd2662…
08-21 15:35:34	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in August?	No	SELL	142	97¢	$138	0xf324a5…
08-21 09:38:58	will the bitcoin volatility index hit 45 by august 31	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x9e4d7e…
08-20 23:55:09	Will Lambda have the third highest private market valuation on August 31?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x9abf0c…
08-20 23:55:09	Will Lambda have the third highest private market valuation on August 31?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x462f6e…
08-20 23:55:09	Will Lambda have the third highest private market valuation on August 31?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x1dfe88…
08-20 18:58:03	Will Lambda have the third highest private market valuation on August 31?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0xa80658…
08-20 18:57:03	Will Lambda have the third highest private market valuation on August 31?	No	SELL	44	99¢	$43	0x2a4db3…
08-20 18:57:03	Will Lambda have the third highest private market valuation on August 31?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x000c88…
08-20 08:10:55	will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510	No	SELL	104	84¢	$87	0xd0cc74…
08-19 15:36:34	will the bitcoin volatility index hit 40 by august 31 20260801173043894	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xb3858e…
08-19 12:56:40	Will Lambda have the third highest private market valuation on August 31?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xf59dfd…
08-17 08:30:25	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in August?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xc09ace…
08-17 08:20:13	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in August?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xb5d064…
08-17 08:11:07	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in August?	No	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0x7dc9f1…
08-17 08:08:43	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in August?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x17b60a…
08-16 10:23:58	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	66	98¢	$65	0x337637…
08-15 12:16:33	Will Lambda have the third highest private market valuation on August 31?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x9cfe79…
08-11 20:42:27	chatgpt outage on august 14 2026 20260806133118518	Yes	SELL	30	9¢	$3	0xf08d27…
08-11 17:22:39	Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	114	25¢	$28	0x7a308d…
08-10 18:48:54	Will Lambda have the third highest private market valuation on August 31?	No	SELL	39	97¢	$38	0xc0386d…
08-09 17:56:45	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	60¢	$45	0x75fda7…
08-09 17:56:30	will epic games valuation hit high 15b by august 31 20260731174120239	No	SELL	80	97¢	$78	0xbaa2de…
08-09 12:55:52	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0xd4a146…
08-09 09:22:58	chatgpt outage on august 11 2026 20260806133118515	Yes	SELL	19	11¢	$2	0xad95d4…
08-09 09:22:42	chatgpt outage on august 13 2026 20260806133118517	Yes	SELL	29	9¢	$3	0x32ef66…
08-09 09:22:36	chatgpt outage on august 13 2026 20260806133118517	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x818f79…
08-09 09:22:06	chatgpt outage on august 11 2026 20260806133118515	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xac0c26…
08-09 09:21:52	chatgpt outage on august 12 2026 20260806133118516	Yes	SELL	30	10¢	$3	0x7ee5f7…
08-09 09:21:37	chatgpt outage on august 13 2026 20260806133118517	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x57d7b9…
08-08 09:43:16	chatgpt outage on august 12 2026 20260806133118516	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0xd0a19b…
08-08 06:15:19	chatgpt outage on august 8 2026 20260806133118512	Yes	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0x2d8504…
08-08 06:15:15	chatgpt outage on august 9 2026 20260806133118513	Yes	BUY	34	9¢	$3	0x8dc03a…
08-08 06:13:40	chatgpt outage on august 14 2026 20260806133118518	Yes	BUY	30	14¢	$4	0x2b7986…
08-08 06:13:36	chatgpt outage on august 13 2026 20260806133118517	Yes	BUY	69	14¢	$10	0xadcf15…
08-08 06:13:33	chatgpt outage on august 12 2026 20260806133118516	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xd2e45a…
08-08 06:13:28	chatgpt outage on august 11 2026 20260806133118515	Yes	BUY	39	14¢	$5	0x8c56b1…
08-08 06:13:22	chatgpt outage on august 9 2026 20260806133118513	Yes	BUY	44	9¢	$4	0x364f58…
08-08 06:13:18	chatgpt outage on august 8 2026 20260806133118512	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x9c5ae5…
08-08 05:48:10	grok web outage by august 31 2026 20260728191715772	No	BUY	69	74¢	$51	0x07c363…
08-08 00:32:40	Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	195	99¢	$193	0xbd0673…
08-07 21:21:24	Will Lambda have the third highest private market valuation on August 31?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xbf696c…