Carefree-Activist — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$177

Unrealized P&L

+$182

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

5,939

lifetime

Volume

$740.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$125

Open exposure

$9.90K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-08 09:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

82% 100% +$2

Politics

18% 100% +$175

Sports

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 244 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	+5,732	$5,435	96¢	$5.5K	+$47	06-08 09:25
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	+2,506	$2,381	97¢	$2.4K	+$46	06-08 09:23
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?	Yes	+1,254	$1,083	93¢	$1.2K	+$83	06-04 19:22
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+600	$520	88¢	$525	+$5	06-03 06:48
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+152	$142	93¢	$141	$-1	06-01 06:50
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?	Yes	+105	$101	98¢	$103	+$1	06-03 08:17
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	+50	$49	98¢	$49	+$0	05-31 10:30
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	+10	$9	88¢	$9	+$0	06-01 12:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	27	$15.4K	7,971	7,971	+0	open	—	04-27 10:17
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	22	$14.9K	8,113	8,113	+0	open	—	05-12 18:14
highest temperature in nyc on march 3 2026 44 45f	30	$10.7K	5,450	5,450	+0	open	—	03-04 01:35
highest temperature in nyc on march 1 2026 44 45f	21	$10.7K	5,368	5,368	+0	open	—	03-01 23:06
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	56	$9.8K	4,929	4,931	-1	open	—	06-03 09:58
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	18	$9.6K	4,634	5,166	-532	open	—	05-31 09:12
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	24	$7.7K	3,961	3,961	+0	open	—	04-24 08:04
highest temperature in nyc on february 27 2026 48 49f	16	$7.0K	3,505	3,505	+0	open	—	02-27 20:32
highest temperature in dallas on april 4 2026 78 79f	21	$6.6K	3,312	3,311	+2	open	—	04-05 03:06
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	14	$6.5K	3,463	3,463	+0	open	—	05-12 18:14
Iran leadership change by May 31?	24	$6.4K	6,664	0	+6,664	open	—	05-30 09:37
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	16	$6.4K	6,773	0	+6,773	open	—	04-14 11:33
highest temperature in nyc on february 26 2026 34 35f	12	$6.2K	3,150	3,140	+10	open	—	02-26 05:52
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?	22	$5.8K	3,812	2,300	+1,512	Yes	+$175	05-10 07:40
highest temperature in miami on march 17 2026 80 81f	19	$5.8K	2,971	2,971	+0	open	—	03-17 15:27
highest temperature in chicago on march 11 2026 50 51f	60	$5.7K	2,886	2,886	+0	open	—	03-11 22:29
Iran leadership change by June 30?	48	$5.4K	5,732	0	+5,732	open	—	06-08 09:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$5.4K	5,372	0	+5,372	open	—	05-15 11:51
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	15	$5.3K	5,368	0	+5,368	open	—	05-14 09:39
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	36	$5.3K	4,292	1,064	+3,228	open	—	04-19 01:27
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	18	$5.3K	2,563	2,763	-200	open	—	04-24 08:30
highest temperature in dallas on february 20 2026 72 73f	10	$5.2K	3,327	1,900	+1,427	open	—	02-21 01:51
highest temperature in nyc on march 27 2026 68forhigher	27	$4.9K	2,474	2,474	+0	open	—	03-28 05:49
highest temperature in dallas on march 7 2026 64forhigher	28	$4.8K	2,998	1,839	+1,159	open	—	03-07 08:13
highest temperature in nyc on january 19 36forhigher	14	$4.8K	3,764	1,100	+2,664	open	—	01-20 06:23
highest temperature in nyc on april 3 2026 72 73f	21	$4.8K	2,414	2,411	+3	open	—	04-04 05:41
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	6	$4.6K	2,333	2,333	+0	open	—	04-25 19:32
highest temperature in chicago on march 4 2026 40 41f	22	$4.5K	2,486	2,086	+401	open	—	03-04 15:53
highest temperature in chicago on march 23 2026 48 49f	16	$4.4K	2,238	2,238	+0	open	—	03-24 03:46
highest temperature in nyc on february 22 2026 32 33f	8	$4.4K	961	3,479	-2,518	open	—	02-22 04:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 09:25:04	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$1	0x3a01d5…
06-08 09:23:37	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x40b49b…
06-08 09:23:22	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	200	92¢	$185	0xa958e3…
06-08 09:23:16	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xdead4c…
06-08 09:22:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	207	97¢	$201	0xafc935…
06-07 08:41:01	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xb2ffe1…
06-07 07:17:42	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x7f9747…
06-07 07:17:42	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0x118cae…
06-05 21:51:45	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x59b55d…
06-05 21:51:09	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	85	95¢	$80	0x3977c8…
06-05 21:51:03	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	37	95¢	$35	0xef583d…
06-05 21:50:42	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	33	95¢	$31	0xb2ce54…
06-05 21:49:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	160	95¢	$152	0xfe5ed7…
06-05 21:44:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	97	95¢	$92	0x20c904…
06-05 21:44:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	38	95¢	$36	0xa37564…
06-05 21:43:27	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	71	95¢	$68	0x73daf1…
06-05 21:42:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	35	95¢	$33	0xf1b8c6…
06-05 21:37:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0xae3b05…
06-05 21:37:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	70	95¢	$66	0xd8b49e…
06-05 21:37:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	140	95¢	$133	0xa9c0a9…
06-05 21:36:09	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0x884fbe…
06-05 21:36:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0x6b87f0…
06-05 21:35:33	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	83	95¢	$79	0xad7331…
06-05 21:33:55	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	67	95¢	$63	0xe2f290…
06-05 21:33:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x5b0785…
06-05 21:32:49	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	186	95¢	$177	0xc48840…
06-05 21:30:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x763fcc…
06-05 21:30:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	35	95¢	$33	0x47b0db…
06-05 21:29:27	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	31	95¢	$29	0xb2422e…
06-05 21:29:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	77	94¢	$72	0xb42749…
06-05 21:29:00	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	72	94¢	$68	0xf8c145…
06-05 21:28:54	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	35	94¢	$33	0xc72cbb…
06-05 21:28:51	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	37	94¢	$35	0x9c973c…
06-05 21:27:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	250	94¢	$236	0xd82eda…
06-05 21:25:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	188	96¢	$180	0x1d2603…
06-05 06:14:19	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	38	96¢	$36	0x70a1f1…
06-05 06:14:19	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	45	96¢	$43	0x21d5f6…
06-05 06:14:19	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	34	96¢	$33	0x0b784b…
06-05 06:14:19	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	39	96¢	$37	0x004dca…
06-05 05:24:55	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	64	96¢	$61	0xe00b7e…
06-05 05:24:24	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	39	96¢	$37	0xc520ab…
06-05 05:24:24	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	33	96¢	$32	0x80436c…
06-05 05:23:46	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0xe857eb…
06-05 05:23:46	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	38	96¢	$36	0x20bb14…
06-05 05:17:58	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	28	96¢	$27	0x006bc1…
06-05 05:17:57	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	38	96¢	$36	0xb61c70…
06-05 05:17:57	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	41	96¢	$39	0x77035a…
06-05 05:17:57	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x480a35…
06-05 05:17:57	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	37	96¢	$35	0x0c34b0…
06-05 01:55:19	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xa76e1b…
06-05 01:55:19	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x3ee48b…
06-05 01:55:18	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	36	96¢	$34	0x860ed0…
06-05 01:55:18	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x3bdb54…
06-05 01:51:37	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	39	96¢	$37	0xff0f5e…
06-05 01:51:37	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	44	96¢	$42	0xeb4d04…
06-05 01:51:37	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	41	96¢	$39	0xd56191…
06-05 01:51:37	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	45	96¢	$43	0x798786…
06-05 01:51:37	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	29	96¢	$28	0x1f85bf…
06-05 01:47:45	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	46	96¢	$44	0xfe133c…
06-05 01:47:45	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	32	96¢	$31	0xde73e7…
06-05 01:47:45	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	36	96¢	$34	0x9046f1…
06-05 01:47:45	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	32	96¢	$31	0x51ef68…
06-05 01:47:45	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x222629…
06-05 00:31:58	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xcb955a…
06-05 00:30:49	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xf1cb46…
06-05 00:29:15	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	131	96¢	$126	0x13471f…
06-05 00:29:06	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	131	96¢	$126	0x29b47f…
06-05 00:28:54	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	285	96¢	$273	0x0eaca7…
06-04 19:22:12	Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x224e10…
06-04 09:54:46	Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x183415…
06-04 09:16:52	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x6d310e…
06-04 09:16:28	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	285	96¢	$273	0xd21d23…
06-03 10:09:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x3adb75…
06-03 10:07:58	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	240	97¢	$234	0x0d1db9…
06-03 09:58:19	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	Yes	SELL	941	98¢	$927	0x1ab184…
06-03 09:57:07	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x93a210…
06-03 09:38:55	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	Yes	SELL	235	99¢	$232	0x75d509…
06-03 09:33:19	Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	90¢	$65	0x93b6e5…
06-03 09:32:56	Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x2cc94f…
06-03 09:32:49	Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x200369…
06-03 09:22:59	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x26734e…
06-03 09:02:57	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	95¢	$952	0x842ff0…
06-03 08:31:25	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	Yes	SELL	500	99¢	$495	0xe49458…
06-03 08:24:24	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xccc306…
06-03 08:24:08	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	400	95¢	$381	0xfb4e47…
06-03 08:22:16	Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	89¢	$98	0xe193a7…
06-03 08:22:02	Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0xfd38d2…
06-03 08:21:58	Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x513b68…
06-03 08:17:59	Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	96¢	$101	0xbd80d4…
06-03 07:39:46	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	Yes	SELL	2,715	99¢	$2,681	0x3e9ee7…
06-03 06:48:58	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0xade2a3…
06-03 00:46:29	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	Yes	SELL	500	100¢	$499	0x211d2b…
06-02 18:01:51	Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	84¢	$11	0xfa11a9…
06-02 04:06:54	Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?	Yes	BUY	177	84¢	$149	0xc82587…
06-02 02:51:51	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcb9db0…
06-02 02:50:57	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x1ae7e1…
06-02 00:31:33	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x5dc00d…
06-01 23:27:06	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x738990…
06-01 23:27:01	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf90b64…
06-01 23:27:01	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc63590…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Voluminous-Lava 0x46b3…d3de	687	$547	2,628	05-14 23:15
oVyg7f 0x5f39…a78c	653	$95.5K	20,677	04-09 19:44
(anonymous) 0x19f7…ff75	581	$2.32K	784	04-23 07:19
Motionless-Stalk 0xe347…b438	579	$51.8K	7,170	04-23 06:54
Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273	510	$1.73K	2,509	05-24 11:24
Different-Hazel 0x3dd2…9ab1	496	$94.9K	4,242	04-23 21:28
(anonymous) 0xfbb7…6f27	464	$597	3,750	04-18 14:06
(anonymous) 0xf2eb…6eb5	456	$73.1K	5,800	03-20 05:41