Carefree-Activist — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$177

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

6,538

lifetime

Volume

$920.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$141

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-13 06:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

75% 100% +$2

Politics

24% 100% +$175

Sports

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 93 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	53	$31.4K	17,073	17,108	-35	open	—	08-01 03:49
Iran leadership change by June 30?	75	$18.3K	10,225	8,532	+1,693	open	—	06-26 11:47
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	53	$15.8K	8,758	7,643	+1,116	open	—	06-16 14:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	27	$15.4K	7,971	7,971	+0	open	—	04-27 10:17
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	22	$14.9K	8,113	8,113	+0	open	—	05-12 18:14
us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	35	$11.2K	5,992	5,992	+0	open	—	07-20 09:59
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	38	$11.1K	8,042	8,042	+0	open	—	08-02 19:57
highest temperature in nyc on march 3 2026 44 45f	30	$10.7K	5,450	5,450	+0	open	—	03-04 01:35
highest temperature in nyc on march 1 2026 44 45f	21	$10.7K	5,368	5,368	+0	open	—	03-01 23:06
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	28	$10.3K	7,653	3,160	+4,493	open	—	08-13 03:13
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	56	$9.8K	4,929	4,931	-1	open	—	06-03 09:58
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	18	$9.6K	4,634	5,166	-532	open	—	05-31 09:12
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?	24	$8.8K	5,082	4,174	+908	open	—	07-07 01:40
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	24	$7.7K	3,961	3,961	+0	open	—	04-24 08:04
highest temperature in nyc on february 27 2026 48 49f	16	$7.0K	3,505	3,505	+0	open	—	02-27 20:32
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	24	$6.7K	9,534	0	+9,534	open	—	08-02 19:58
highest temperature in dallas on april 4 2026 78 79f	21	$6.6K	3,312	3,311	+2	open	—	04-05 03:06
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	14	$6.5K	3,463	3,463	+0	open	—	05-12 18:14
will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	35	$6.4K	7,017	0	+7,017	open	—	06-16 14:15
Iran leadership change by May 31?	24	$6.4K	6,664	0	+6,664	open	—	05-30 09:37
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	16	$6.4K	6,773	0	+6,773	open	—	04-14 11:33
highest temperature in nyc on february 26 2026 34 35f	12	$6.2K	3,150	3,140	+10	open	—	02-26 05:52
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	19	$5.8K	4,612	4,612	+0	open	—	08-05 07:07
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?	22	$5.8K	3,812	2,300	+1,512	Yes	+$175	05-10 07:40
highest temperature in miami on march 17 2026 80 81f	19	$5.8K	2,971	2,971	+0	open	—	03-17 15:27
highest temperature in chicago on march 11 2026 50 51f	60	$5.7K	2,886	2,886	+0	open	—	03-11 22:29
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	45	$5.5K	2,948	2,946	+2	open	—	06-24 03:31
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	15	$5.4K	3,959	1,824	+2,135	open	—	08-13 04:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$5.4K	5,372	0	+5,372	open	—	05-15 11:51
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	15	$5.3K	5,368	0	+5,368	open	—	05-14 09:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-13 06:57:12	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	BUY	408	98¢	$398	0xa3c3cf…
08-13 06:55:36	kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	No	BUY	135	96¢	$130	0xa0d1ea…
08-13 06:49:52	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	BUY	3,186	97¢	$3,103	0x30eccf…
08-13 05:38:06	will a european country take military action on iran by august 31 20260720005529606	No	BUY	611	99¢	$603	0xe714dc…
08-13 04:53:01	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,111	95¢	$2,006	0x1d8f9d…
08-13 03:13:46	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0xa552d6…
08-13 03:12:13	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	19	98¢	$19	0x3d80d3…
08-13 01:59:24	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	2,463	99¢	$2,428	0x8a64a3…
08-13 01:56:48	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$990	0x5257e2…
08-13 01:55:39	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	1,216	98¢	$1,187	0x3844be…
08-12 22:11:51	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	714	99¢	$704	0x2b1390…
08-12 22:02:55	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	210	98¢	$206	0xb20fd0…
08-12 22:02:16	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	76	99¢	$75	0x358e5b…
08-12 20:37:51	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	935	98¢	$921	0x53fe5e…
08-12 20:36:39	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	65	99¢	$64	0xf3bb9d…
08-05 07:10:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	514	84¢	$431	0x34cfd0…
08-05 07:09:23	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	1,801	83¢	$1,495	0xbb9100…
08-05 07:07:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	4,112	47¢	$1,926	0x99351f…
08-02 19:58:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	2,386	73¢	$1,742	0x86aa3d…
08-02 19:57:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	SELL	3,415	51¢	$1,742	0x09f867…
08-02 07:07:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	291	75¢	$218	0x473c7c…
08-02 07:06:53	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	81	44¢	$36	0x3354cb…
08-02 07:06:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0xdf3c28…
08-02 07:06:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0xa20654…
08-02 07:06:44	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x3fb25b…
08-02 07:06:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	400	44¢	$176	0x469b1b…
08-02 07:01:05	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	37	85¢	$32	0x8a22df…
08-02 06:55:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	74	43¢	$32	0x615bbd…
08-02 06:55:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	168	86¢	$144	0x133672…
08-02 06:52:14	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	365	86¢	$315	0x5a9461…
08-02 06:52:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	124	86¢	$107	0xe51186…
08-02 06:46:14	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	426	43¢	$183	0x0a80d7…
08-02 06:41:47	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x1b8275…
08-02 06:34:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	175	75¢	$131	0x538041…
08-02 06:33:11	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	500	13¢	$66	0x30946d…
08-02 06:32:17	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	500	18¢	$89	0x214ee5…
08-02 06:31:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	1,200	42¢	$504	0x18a282…
08-02 06:30:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	86	43¢	$37	0xea8609…
08-02 06:28:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	83	86¢	$71	0x1fd2cb…
08-02 06:28:17	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x3be3e1…
08-02 06:28:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x4bffde…
08-02 06:28:02	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	162	84¢	$136	0x18d598…
08-02 06:27:53	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	28	84¢	$23	0xce7cd4…
08-02 06:27:44	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	458	84¢	$386	0x442e83…
08-02 06:23:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x47d1b2…
08-02 06:22:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	235	75¢	$176	0xd156e8…
08-02 06:21:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	890	42¢	$374	0x4c25ac…
08-02 06:20:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	1,110	42¢	$466	0x3fa391…
08-02 00:58:38	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	1,168	93¢	$1,081	0x4d8f3c…
08-01 14:14:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	1,000	95¢	$950	0x5a827b…
08-01 10:29:26	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	67	95¢	$64	0x87640e…
08-01 10:03:05	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x792535…
08-01 10:03:05	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	183	95¢	$173	0x01fe88…
08-01 09:56:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xee9184…
08-01 03:49:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	2,508	100¢	$2,506	0x50a131…
07-31 16:39:41	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	1,008	99¢	$1,003	0x030e3a…
07-31 15:42:35	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	1,400	99¢	$1,385	0xee9dac…
07-31 15:41:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xc07b48…
07-31 15:35:29	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	600	80¢	$480	0x91cb57…
07-31 15:09:08	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0x7471cf…
07-31 15:08:20	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	1,699	80¢	$1,359	0xc67eb7…
07-31 15:08:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	1,086	78¢	$850	0xe9f59f…
07-31 15:01:23	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	5,280	98¢	$5,199	0xd0bda7…
07-30 21:14:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	603	81¢	$488	0x03380a…
07-30 21:14:08	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	502	97¢	$489	0xfcc915…
07-30 20:18:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	51	82¢	$42	0xa9846a…
07-30 20:10:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0xb21a8a…
07-30 20:07:11	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,035	83¢	$859	0xf7708d…
07-30 20:06:53	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	1,100	97¢	$1,067	0x836e49…
07-30 20:05:14	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	2,392	82¢	$1,961	0xab1ff6…
07-30 20:04:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	2,000	97¢	$1,944	0x18fd0c…
07-30 19:37:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0x16fa97…
07-28 22:16:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	500	93¢	$465	0x5ede2c…
07-28 22:09:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	59	66¢	$39	0xa74904…
07-28 22:07:38	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	122	70¢	$85	0xb7cf87…
07-28 22:06:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0xc1b324…
07-28 22:05:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	385	70¢	$268	0x735d00…
07-28 22:05:32	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x5bfab5…
07-28 22:04:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	200	67¢	$134	0xc0991c…
07-28 22:04:23	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	1,000	91¢	$910	0xf3caa6…
07-28 22:03:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	394	70¢	$276	0x1bb53d…
07-28 22:02:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	807	70¢	$565	0xc36541…
07-28 22:01:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	86	69¢	$59	0xde522e…
07-28 22:00:56	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	200	91¢	$182	0x7d583a…
07-28 21:59:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	22	91¢	$20	0xc1b61e…
07-28 21:59:14	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	282	68¢	$192	0x188daf…
07-28 21:58:08	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	211	91¢	$192	0xa05956…
07-28 21:56:59	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	720	67¢	$482	0x7493ae…
07-28 21:56:38	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	329	68¢	$224	0x7634e8…
07-28 21:54:26	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	185	68¢	$126	0xf04799…
07-28 21:53:26	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	115	68¢	$78	0xe6b0ad…
07-28 21:49:47	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	1,000	91¢	$910	0xc5b3c5…
07-27 15:59:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	15	70¢	$10	0xf3b3fa…
07-27 15:50:25	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	225	70¢	$157	0x8cfe9a…
07-27 15:49:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	219	69¢	$151	0x41c009…
07-27 15:44:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	339	91¢	$309	0x941b8d…
07-27 15:09:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0xd84a3c…
07-27 14:31:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	2,145	70¢	$1,501	0x3debf5…
07-27 14:28:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0xe7ca86…
07-27 14:24:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	200	91¢	$182	0x311295…