Doting-Permafrost — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$59

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.58K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$115

1 position

First seen

2026-01-12

last 07-07 06:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

66% — —

Other

23% 0% $-59

Crypto

6% — —

Sports

2% — —

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes		+200	$122	57¢	$115	$-7	07-07 06:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	9	$647	1,020	1,020	+0	open	—	03-09 09:11
will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	4	$172	326	326	+0	open	—	03-09 08:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	1	$122	200	0	+200	open	—	07-07 06:33
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	2	$91	100	100	+0	open	—	07-01 07:54
will ethereum reach 4600 in january 2026	1	$90	91	0	+91	open	—	01-12 16:37
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	2	$68	50	50	+0	open	—	05-11 02:50
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11?	1	$54	100	0	+100	Up	$-54	05-11 03:48
iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260629202434612	2	$54	50	50	+0	open	—	07-01 09:41
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?	2	$54	50	50	+0	Yes	$-0	05-11 02:32
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	2	$32	50	50	+0	open	—	07-02 06:02
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	6	$30	40	40	+0	open	—	07-02 08:29
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 11?	2	$26	50	50	+0	Up	$-3	05-11 05:20
will the us invade iran by march 31	2	$24	76	76	+0	open	—	03-09 07:11
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	1	$15	19	0	+19	open	—	01-12 16:25
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	2	$14	20	20	+0	open	—	07-02 07:36
iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	2	$14	50	50	+0	open	—	07-02 06:29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	2	$11	20	20	+0	open	—	05-11 03:03
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	2	$10	20	20	+0	open	—	05-11 04:59
will sentinels make a roster change before september 20260701202956866	2	$8	20	20	+0	open	—	07-02 06:20
will perplexitys valuation hit high 20 by july 31 20260629184740280	2	$8	20	20	+0	open	—	07-02 07:47
will trump say golden dome during tribute to america rally 20260630160620570	5	$7	20	20	+0	open	—	07-01 08:23
anthropic openai vs microsoft higher valuation on december 31	2	$7	10	10	+0	open	—	07-01 09:41
will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	2	$6	50	50	+0	open	—	07-01 08:39
will the next claude opus model be released by october 31 2026 20260701204710234	2	$6	20	20	+0	open	—	07-02 08:40
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	2	$5	20	20	+0	open	—	07-02 07:22
will marie bouzkova advance to the semifinals in ladies singles at wimbledon 2026 20260629193807024	2	$4	20	20	+0	open	—	07-01 08:56
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	3	$2	103	3	+100	Yes	$-2	05-11 03:00
will the announcers say nutmeg or meg during the switzerland vs algeria fifa world cup match 20260701163844371	2	$0	1	1	+0	open	—	07-02 06:03
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	2	$0	2	2	+0	Up	+$0	05-11 05:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-07 06:33:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0x4b7cbd…
07-02 08:40:16	will the next claude opus model be released by october 31 2026 20260701204710234	No	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x2b2c48…
07-02 08:29:41	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x482b43…
07-02 07:51:37	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x076309…
07-02 07:47:20	will perplexitys valuation hit high 20 by july 31 20260629184740280	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x3153aa…
07-02 07:36:55	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x0e0d97…
07-02 07:30:56	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x414914…
07-02 07:26:37	will perplexitys valuation hit high 20 by july 31 20260629184740280	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x221579…
07-02 07:22:16	Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xf8697b…
07-02 06:53:35	Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xd33efc…
07-02 06:29:59	iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	Yes	SELL	50	13¢	$7	0xb710fd…
07-02 06:26:10	iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x03fda3…
07-02 06:20:10	will sentinels make a roster change before september 20260701202956866	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0xafbe67…
07-02 06:09:31	will sentinels make a roster change before september 20260701202956866	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x45792b…
07-02 06:04:16	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	19	40¢	$8	0x4fcb5d…
07-02 06:03:10	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	19	40¢	$8	0xac9a0b…
07-02 06:03:05	will the announcers say nutmeg or meg during the switzerland vs algeria fifa world cup match 20260701163844371	Yes	SELL	1	20¢	$0	0x961e50…
07-02 06:02:31	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	1	40¢	$0	0xa1e67a…
07-02 06:02:14	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	50	32¢	$16	0x0d7a09…
07-02 05:50:25	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	50	32¢	$16	0x6dd7ff…
07-02 05:36:10	will the next claude opus model be released by october 31 2026 20260701204710234	No	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x8c3b3d…
07-02 05:33:38	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0x609b37…
07-02 05:04:28	will the announcers say nutmeg or meg during the switzerland vs algeria fifa world cup match 20260701163844371	Yes	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0xf85609…
07-01 09:41:58	anthropic openai vs microsoft higher valuation on december 31	Microsoft	SELL	10	32¢	$3	0xe64b27…
07-01 09:41:43	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260629202434612	Yes	SELL	50	54¢	$27	0x158c95…
07-01 09:27:32	anthropic openai vs microsoft higher valuation on december 31	Microsoft	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0xd43eb6…
07-01 09:21:49	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260629202434612	Yes	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0xa6c2f5…
07-01 08:56:14	will marie bouzkova advance to the semifinals in ladies singles at wimbledon 2026 20260629193807024	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xf5d1e6…
07-01 08:52:58	will marie bouzkova advance to the semifinals in ladies singles at wimbledon 2026 20260629193807024	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xc12356…
07-01 08:39:08	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	No	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0xb1a74e…
07-01 08:23:37	will trump say golden dome during tribute to america rally 20260630160620570	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x9f0c2a…
07-01 08:06:41	will taylor swift get married in manhattan 20260605211638230	No	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x09644a…
07-01 07:54:55	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	100	45¢	$45	0x58023f…
07-01 07:15:47	will trump say golden dome during tribute to america rally 20260630160620570	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x77fadc…
07-01 07:13:47	will trump say golden dome during tribute to america rally 20260630160620570	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xbc8921…
07-01 07:09:50	will trump say golden dome during tribute to america rally 20260630160620570	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x264eb0…
07-01 07:08:50	will trump say golden dome during tribute to america rally 20260630160620570	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x33cc44…
06-30 09:07:20	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x2c6567…
05-11 05:20:24	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	SELL	50	23¢	$12	0xf6d2eb…
05-11 05:01:24	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0xf5da9d…
05-11 04:59:50	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x814b4a…
05-11 04:59:03	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	No	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xa21cb1…
05-11 04:50:16	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x66285e…
05-11 04:31:53	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0xa31680…
05-11 03:48:08	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0x605914…
05-11 03:03:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x7e46f9…
05-11 03:02:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x138154…
05-11 03:00:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x62bb47…
05-11 02:58:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	SELL	3	3¢	$0	0x9d9427…
05-11 02:54:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x84225b…
05-11 02:50:46	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	50	64¢	$32	0x6f6fe1…
05-11 02:39:10	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0x4ade30…
05-11 02:32:45	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?	No	SELL	50	53¢	$26	0xa20b71…
05-11 02:30:44	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?	No	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0xa67e09…
03-09 09:11:49	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	300	30¢	$89	0xe571ff…
03-09 09:09:51	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	300	30¢	$90	0x01a436…
03-09 09:05:39	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	320	32¢	$102	0x5fd7ae…
03-09 08:53:33	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	320	32¢	$102	0xfe3284…
03-09 08:08:53	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	300	33¢	$99	0xee13fe…
03-09 08:07:13	will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	Yes	SELL	26	25¢	$7	0xa7e2c6…
03-09 08:03:29	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	300	33¢	$99	0x268107…
03-09 07:11:43	will the us invade iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	76	16¢	$12	0xe8cd43…
03-09 07:02:49	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	88	33¢	$29	0x48a3db…
03-09 07:00:51	will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	Yes	BUY	26	26¢	$7	0x0733c6…
03-09 06:57:29	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	12	33¢	$4	0x6e3845…
03-09 06:49:21	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0xfc9531…
03-09 06:48:21	will the us invade iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	76	16¢	$12	0x91aeac…
03-09 06:41:43	will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	Yes	SELL	300	26¢	$78	0x5f3cdf…
03-09 06:40:55	will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	Yes	BUY	300	27¢	$81	0x979ed3…
01-12 16:37:13	will ethereum reach 4600 in january 2026	No	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0xd1496c…
01-12 16:25:19	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	19	77¢	$15	0x52250e…