Fancy-Directive — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$28

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

20.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$172

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$31

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-02

last 05-19 08:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Politics

49% 40% -$16

Other

46% 33% -$12

Crypto

6% 0% $0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-19).

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	+18	$10	95¢	$17	+$7	05-17 10:28
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	No	+12	$10	92¢	$11	+$1	05-17 18:33
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+167	$10	2¢	$3	-$7	05-17 18:33
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	+4	$1	6¢	$0	-$1	05-14 13:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	2	$20	40	40	+0	Yes	+$0	05-17 09:26
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?	2	$19	127	127	+0	Yes	-$1	05-17 09:34
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?	2	$18	125	125	+0	open	—	05-17 09:34
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by less than 5%?	2	$15	25	25	+0	No	-$5	05-17 09:34
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	3	$11	452	0	+452	No	-$11	05-16 15:27
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	1	$10	167	0	+167	open	—	05-17 18:33
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?	1	$10	275	0	+275	No	-$10	05-19 08:02
Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?	1	$10	130	0	+130	open	—	05-17 17:12
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	1	$10	18	0	+18	open	—	05-17 10:28
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-19 08:02
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-17 17:12
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	05-17 18:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	2	$10	8	8	+0	Down	$0	05-05 16:14
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $28B?	1	$4	37	0	+37	open	—	05-17 10:28
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 6?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	$0	05-06 05:03
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or below on May 15?	1	$1	449	0	+449	No	-$1	05-14 13:50
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	1	$1	4	0	+4	open	—	05-14 13:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	1	$1	1	0	+1	Yes	+$0	05-02 17:33
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	1	$1	1	0	+1	Up	+$0	05-05 16:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-19 08:02:14	Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	275	4¢	$10	0x2f56c7…
05-19 08:02:12	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd70323…
05-17 18:33:04	Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x62bc38…
05-17 18:33:01	Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x76a7ca…
05-17 17:12:24	Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe8b93b…
05-17 17:12:22	Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	BUY	130	8¢	$10	0x6f6ae8…
05-17 10:28:16	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x014785…
05-17 10:28:12	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $28B?	Yes	BUY	37	11¢	$4	0x6c31a3…
05-17 09:34:39	Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by less than 5%?	Yes	SELL	25	19¢	$5	0x8dd902…
05-17 09:34:27	Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	6¢	$8	0xafcd28…
05-17 09:34:09	Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?	No	SELL	127	7¢	$9	0xca17d9…
05-17 09:26:10	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	25¢	$10	0x05d0d7…
05-16 20:25:12	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xb016ae…
05-16 20:25:10	Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xda2551…
05-16 15:35:17	Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?	No	BUY	127	8¢	$10	0x3dd81e…
05-16 15:35:13	Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0x0e3a57…
05-16 15:27:54	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	Yes	BUY	416	2¢	$10	0x1bf4d2…
05-16 15:19:41	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x3e15a3…
05-16 15:14:47	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	2¢	$0	0x560f10…
05-14 13:50:25	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or below on May 15?	Yes	BUY	449	0¢	$1	0x2bd680…
05-14 13:12:18	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x30bae0…
05-06 05:03:30	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 6?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xbd42d1…
05-05 16:34:42	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 6?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x455286…
05-05 16:20:06	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3fb57a…
05-05 16:14:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	SELL	8	58¢	$5	0x0671ef…
05-05 16:12:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x91b919…
05-02 17:33:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x4fcd6d…