Informal-Picturesque — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$431

Unrealized P&L

-$78

Hit rate

50.8%

Resolved (90d)

198

Trades (90d)

366

5,098 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$1.35K

$26.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$78

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 11-04 20:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 135 days

Categories

Crypto

91% 43% +$433

Other

6% 40% -$274

Sports

2% 42% -$92

Politics

1% 25% +$23

Tech

0% 50% -$38

Pop-Culture

0% 33% -$16

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 89 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes		+1,000	$131	7¢	$70	-$61	11-04 20:15
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes		+438	$25	2¢	$8	-$17	09-10 12:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
trump declassifies new ufo files by april 30	9	$195	932	358	+575	No	-$95	04-24 18:16
Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	3	$131	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	11-04 20:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 23:10 UTC	2	$130	259	0	+259	Up	-$130	03-22 23:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 23:15 UTC	1	$125	393	0	+393	Down	-$125	03-22 23:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	1	$120	304	0	+304	Up	+$184	09-12 13:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 01:10 UTC	1	$111	240	0	+240	Down	-$111	03-24 01:10
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	1	$111	270	0	+270	Spain	-$111	07-18 03:14
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	6	$104	1,578	1,578	+0	No	-$62	09-06 00:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 00:50 UTC	1	$100	854	0	+854	Up	-$100	03-24 00:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 01:20 UTC	1	$100	402	0	+402	Up	+$302	03-23 01:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 17:20 UTC	1	$100	167	0	+167	Down	+$67	03-22 17:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 01:15 UTC	1	$100	482	0	+482	Up	-$100	03-23 01:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 04:35 UTC	1	$100	273	0	+273	Up	-$100	04-07 04:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 17:05 UTC	1	$100	208	0	+208	Up	+$108	03-15 17:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 00:45 UTC	1	$100	244	0	+244	Up	-$100	03-24 00:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 05:55 UTC	1	$100	268	0	+268	Up	-$100	04-13 05:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 17:15 UTC	1	$100	263	0	+263	Down	-$100	03-22 17:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 18:25 UTC	1	$100	294	0	+294	Down	+$194	03-06 18:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 06:05 UTC	1	$100	238	0	+238	Up	-$100	04-13 06:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 18:10 UTC	2	$99	268	0	+268	Down	+$169	04-09 18:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 01:25 UTC	2	$93	223	0	+223	Up	-$93	03-24 01:27
mwoh usa ger 2026 02 15	1	$90	99	0	+99	USA	+$9	02-15 06:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 17:50 UTC	3	$88	130	125	+5	Down	-$22	04-09 17:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 16:30 UTC	3	$85	68	64	+3	Up	+$46	04-06 16:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 16:05 UTC	1	$85	167	0	+167	Down	+$82	04-09 16:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 17:05 UTC	1	$82	153	0	+153	Up	+$71	03-22 17:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 00:35 UTC	1	$80	178	0	+178	Down	-$80	03-24 00:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 16:50 UTC	1	$80	178	0	+178	Up	-$80	03-22 16:50
nba det gsw 2026 01 30	1	$72	86	0	+86	Pistons	+$14	01-31 04:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 19:40 UTC	1	$70	159	0	+159	Up	-$70	04-09 19:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 20:15:00	Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	733	13¢	$96	0x70de22…
10-05 02:26:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xf2082a…
10-05 02:26:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	19	21¢	$4	0xe359d3…
10-05 02:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	125	3¢	$4	0x07c4e9…
10-05 02:19:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 02:20 UTC	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x22b3fc…
10-05 02:18:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 02:20 UTC	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x16f28a…
10-05 02:18:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 02:20 UTC	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x2efe7e…
10-05 02:16:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xeef86e…
10-05 02:16:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0x525dfd…
10-04 22:49:59	Flames vs. Kraken	Flames	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x296205…
10-04 22:46:55	Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	131	13¢	$17	0xc2615a…
10-04 22:40:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 22:40 UTC	Up	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0x93256f…
10-04 22:32:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 22:35 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x45d230…
10-04 22:30:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 22:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x580f5a…
10-04 16:15:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	17	23¢	$4	0xdd8a35…
10-04 16:15:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	17	23¢	$4	0x3909e7…
10-04 16:15:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	17	24¢	$4	0xe04293…
10-04 16:09:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0xa0a525…
10-04 16:05:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	12	32¢	$4	0xb9e7db…
10-04 15:58:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0xba3f99…
10-04 15:58:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x1fe5f9…
10-04 15:58:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0xa70158…
10-04 15:58:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x3de19a…
10-04 15:55:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:55 UTC	Up	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0xb90db5…
10-04 15:54:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:55 UTC	Up	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xbc935f…
10-04 15:49:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:50 UTC	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xccbb6c…
10-04 15:49:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:50 UTC	Down	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0x915b3a…
10-04 15:49:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:50 UTC	Down	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0xd179e7…
10-04 15:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	133	3¢	$4	0x446f26…
10-04 15:41:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:40 UTC	Down	BUY	33	12¢	$4	0x4fb498…
10-04 15:35:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x078a8c…
10-04 15:35:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x5e02c2…
10-04 15:35:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x8184c1…
10-04 15:35:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x2b915f…
10-04 15:28:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x63fbc6…
10-04 15:28:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0xd1a52b…
10-04 15:28:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x0003fa…
10-04 15:28:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0xb3a787…
10-04 15:28:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x9eefec…
10-04 15:28:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x2b8732…
10-04 15:11:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xa582b3…
10-04 15:11:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x856d25…
10-04 15:11:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x583936…
10-04 15:11:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 15:10 UTC	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x61b782…
10-04 15:04:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x03a7fd…
10-04 15:03:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xbacc81…
10-04 15:03:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xb04df0…
10-04 03:52:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 03:55 UTC	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x6ca0cd…
10-04 03:52:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 03:50 UTC	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb87bc3…
10-04 03:51:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 03:50 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xcd2f74…
10-04 00:14:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 00:15 UTC	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xc1090f…
10-04 00:14:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 00:15 UTC	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x896c06…
10-04 00:09:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 00:10 UTC	Down	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0x28deff…
10-04 00:03:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 00:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xe81321…
10-04 00:01:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x1fc2bf…
10-03 22:47:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x5cedfd…
10-03 22:41:46	Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	137	13¢	$18	0x443955…
09-13 09:04:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-13 09:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xcb12fd…
09-13 09:04:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-13 09:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xf5af20…
09-13 09:04:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-13 09:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xfc2ba6…
09-13 09:04:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-13 09:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xef4365…
09-13 09:04:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-13 09:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x7a5308…
09-13 09:01:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-13 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x7e98fe…
09-13 09:01:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-13 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x1a9f1d…
09-13 08:55:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x3e5fb0…
09-13 08:51:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xdfec8d…
09-12 13:05:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	304	39¢	$120	0x61e7ac…
09-12 13:04:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	133	3¢	$4	0xba909f…
09-12 13:03:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xe13975…
09-12 13:03:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0xe2edad…
09-12 13:02:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x8d4bc6…
09-12 13:02:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x09e205…
09-12 13:02:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0xeeb92e…
09-12 13:02:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0xe72dda…
09-12 13:02:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0x4f0f60…
09-12 13:02:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x0f1db0…
09-12 13:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x98dafa…
09-12 13:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x4a0351…
09-12 13:02:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x3a4858…
09-12 13:02:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x0432df…
09-12 13:02:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x5a6bae…
09-12 12:55:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	38¢	$4	0x54300b…
09-12 12:54:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0xd7d7f9…
09-12 12:54:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0xa73557…
09-12 12:54:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0x898519…
09-12 12:50:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0xc53194…
09-12 12:50:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	18	22¢	$4	0xb16384…
09-12 12:47:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	47	8¢	$4	0x513c82…
09-12 12:47:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x1a3b33…
09-12 12:40:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x36e18b…
09-12 12:35:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x99163b…
09-12 12:34:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xafe417…
09-12 12:25:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x537c10…
09-12 12:25:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xe5335b…
09-12 12:25:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xd950ff…
09-12 12:25:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x98d9a5…
09-12 12:25:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x5a47d5…
09-12 12:25:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x20cf22…
09-12 12:25:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x0896e1…
09-12 12:25:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xc903ac…