Piercing-Lieu — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$67

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

55.7%

Resolved

312

Trades

644

lifetime

Volume

$2.87K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$23

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 09-11 16:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 93 days

Categories

Other

91% 35% +$72

Politics

7% 56% +$9

Crypto

2% 17% -$12

Sports

0% 33% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No		-25	-$19	94¢	$-23	-$4	06-01 16:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 340 359	8	$144	191	54	+137	Yes	-$118	03-10 14:55
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 320 339	7	$100	78	78	+0	No	+$10	03-10 13:16
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	5	$73	103	103	+0	Yes	+$56	05-06 14:37
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	3	$65	159	83	+75	No	-$5	05-21 14:04
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 200 219	5	$55	52	52	+0	Yes	+$5	03-03 15:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	2	$51	33	33	+0	No	+$11	06-01 16:55
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 200 219	5	$44	66	66	+0	Yes	+$24	03-06 15:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	2	$44	27	27	+0	Yes	+$4	06-01 16:55
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 280 299	4	$41	34	34	+0	Yes	+$25	03-17 15:35
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 160 179	8	$39	42	42	+0	No	-$1	03-05 09:12
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	4	$38	22	22	+0	No	+$0	03-06 14:11
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	3	$38	67	67	+0	No	-$2	05-20 15:34
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	4	$38	27	27	+0	Yes	-$9	07-26 15:00
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 280 299	5	$37	62	60	+2	No	+$1	04-07 06:29
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	3	$35	50	33	+17	Yes	+$2	04-27 14:41
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 260 279	3	$35	41	39	+2	Yes	+$16	04-07 01:40
lol dk gen 2026 04 11 game2	2	$32	42	41	+1	Dplus KIA	+$13	04-11 11:34
lol hle1 ns 2026 04 22 game2	3	$31	23	23	+0	Nongshim Red Force	+$12	04-22 11:38
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$30	57	0	+57	Yes	+$27	05-18 16:12
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner	2	$30	50	0	+50	T1	+$20	04-26 09:22
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	4	$30	440	0	+440	No	-$30	04-28 15:08
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 140 159	6	$30	28	28	+0	No	$0	03-05 08:51
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	2	$28	28	28	+0	No	+$18	05-29 04:59
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 260 279	4	$28	34	34	+0	Yes	+$18	04-03 08:20
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 380 399	7	$28	1,072	72	+1,000	No	-$4	03-13 16:00
elon musk of tweets march 28 march 30 40 64	2	$27	20	20	+0	Yes	+$7	03-30 07:58
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 300 319	5	$26	86	86	+0	No	-$4	03-10 01:03
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 360 379	7	$26	61	61	+0	Yes	+$2	03-24 12:05
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 240 259	6	$26	136	130	+6	No	-$4	04-07 05:43
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 260 279	2	$25	27	24	+3	Yes	+$7	03-27 07:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-11 16:22:42	Zuffa Boxing: Garcia vs. Benn (Welterweight, Main)	Benn	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x6d8771…
09-07 14:59:04	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xb32f13…
09-06 01:59:45	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x2d3d7c…
09-06 01:59:39	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xfb0fe2…
09-05 11:55:01	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	168	1¢	$1	0x79efd0…
09-04 14:15:21	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0x008850…
09-03 14:58:24	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xc8f8e4…
09-03 14:58:18	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xd5868f…
09-03 14:57:03	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	10¢	$0	0x2f585e…
09-02 16:13:24	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x83bfff…
09-02 16:02:06	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x177aac…
07-26 15:01:34	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x2c50a3…
07-26 15:00:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	27	52¢	$14	0x182cd8…
07-24 12:49:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	21	86¢	$18	0x613242…
07-23 14:57:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x094bad…
07-23 14:33:40	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	2	85¢	$1	0xf6602a…
07-11 13:48:43	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x8e95da…
07-11 13:47:59	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Conor McGregor	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xe659a3…
07-09 13:02:17	Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x6c3ba8…
07-03 06:24:58	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x0720ed…
06-14 15:58:09	Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x9d3241…
06-14 15:58:00	Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x51f4e3…
06-14 15:57:46	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x68b0cf…
06-01 17:23:13	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	Yes	SELL	17	0¢	$0	0x6d0497…
06-01 17:23:04	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x6de033…
06-01 17:21:03	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xb84a31…
06-01 17:16:11	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX?	Yes	SELL	111	0¢	$0	0xba5a4a…
06-01 17:14:24	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?	Yes	SELL	67	0¢	$0	0x9f32db…
06-01 17:14:05	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	SELL	17	2¢	$0	0xb87528…
06-01 17:13:53	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?	Yes	SELL	71	0¢	$0	0x3cb126…
06-01 17:12:18	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC?	Yes	SELL	250	0¢	$0	0xa830d6…
06-01 17:12:11	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS?	Yes	SELL	250	0¢	$0	0x6bd3d4…
06-01 17:12:06	Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	91	1¢	$1	0x3cacc4…
06-01 17:09:46	Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	1¢	$1	0xfd5894…
06-01 17:09:39	Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0xdf048b…
06-01 17:09:32	Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	92	1¢	$1	0xb61c2b…
06-01 17:09:27	Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	167	0¢	$1	0x0b5b23…
06-01 17:04:47	Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	167	0¢	$1	0x8f742d…
06-01 17:00:09	Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	1¢	$1	0x10eafc…
06-01 17:00:00	Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	3¢	$1	0xcfa9c1…
06-01 16:59:51	Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	2¢	$1	0xb1b680…
06-01 16:59:35	Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	2¢	$1	0x9cdb49…
06-01 16:59:27	Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	143	1¢	$1	0x95a6e8…
06-01 16:59:18	Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	4¢	$1	0xb02573…
06-01 16:59:11	Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0x8073b3…
06-01 16:59:02	Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	1¢	$1	0xdcf98a…
06-01 16:58:53	Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	1¢	$2	0x78da51…
06-01 16:56:47	Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$1	0x7603b9…
06-01 16:56:40	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	5¢	$1	0x57662e…
06-01 16:56:33	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	8¢	$2	0x2b11e0…
06-01 16:56:26	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	7¢	$3	0xd7f499…
06-01 16:56:18	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	10¢	$4	0x881335…
06-01 16:56:07	Base FDV above $10B one day after launch?	No	SELL	15	66¢	$10	0x9fc0ac…
06-01 16:55:58	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x3bc1c2…
06-01 16:55:48	Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	25	77¢	$19	0xdbb3dc…
06-01 16:55:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	27	87¢	$24	0x128aa7…
06-01 16:55:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	33	94¢	$31	0x05bc45…
05-31 15:13:59	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xf2ec1c…
05-31 02:28:11	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xe8f9e4…
05-31 02:09:00	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xd4a699…
05-29 11:42:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x588aef…
05-29 04:59:48	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0xd2957a…
05-29 04:59:41	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	83¢	$23	0xd67846…
05-29 04:59:21	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x834bca…
05-28 13:02:08	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x1037f9…
05-26 16:11:26	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x4d1417…
05-26 16:11:21	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xdf2335…
05-26 16:09:24	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	4¢	$5	0x11e133…
05-26 16:05:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0x2f28ef…
05-26 15:54:31	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0xd000d6…
05-26 13:29:20	Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xfc478f…
05-26 13:29:15	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x8de13b…
05-26 13:22:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x857b81…
05-26 13:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x9d4dab…
05-26 12:57:17	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0xa4ad8d…
05-26 11:56:58	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0x92fe72…
05-25 14:47:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0xa8db2b…
05-25 14:47:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0xc22f30…
05-24 15:21:53	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	20¢	$10	0x34d3bf…
05-24 15:21:46	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x13f697…
05-22 13:16:08	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	16¢	$8	0xba5b1c…
05-22 13:15:37	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	20¢	$10	0x407fbf…
05-21 14:04:45	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	7¢	$5	0x85ac2a…
05-21 12:03:39	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0x642023…
05-21 12:03:32	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x63f0f1…
05-20 15:34:27	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	27¢	$18	0x28c733…
05-20 15:34:14	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	83	36¢	$30	0xf18dd4…
05-20 15:25:54	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	36¢	$30	0xc5214e…
05-20 14:14:49	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	30¢	$10	0x4b2fa1…
05-20 14:12:59	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	93	5¢	$5	0x86800c…
05-20 13:06:22	LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	KT Rolster	BUY	19	79¢	$15	0x35fd38…
05-20 13:05:36	LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Nongshim Red Force	SELL	12	22¢	$3	0xabae40…
05-20 13:01:56	LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Nongshim Red Force	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x8d623d…
05-20 00:32:56	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x9eb698…
05-20 00:32:38	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x2cb59f…
05-20 00:32:23	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	127	4¢	$5	0xd2a5a8…
05-18 16:12:07	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	52¢	$30	0xbcc130…
05-18 16:11:38	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	185	5¢	$10	0xb66e78…
05-16 02:43:28	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x1d6cbf…
05-16 02:42:15	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xf1b5d4…