Candid-Shearling — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.00K

Unrealized P&L

+$22

Hit rate

97.6%

Resolved

11,421

Trades

51,587

lifetime

Volume

$2.22M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$43

Open exposure

$608

11 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 07:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 297 days

Categories

Other

100% 97% +$4,947

Politics

0% 93% +$50

Crypto

0% 90% +$2

Sports

0% 25% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

82 active days in 12wk • peak 248 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+150	$145	96¢	$145	+$0	10-29 04:07
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	+100	$94	98¢	$98	+$4	10-25 13:11
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	+80	$75	97¢	$77	+$2	10-27 03:02
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	+67	$63	99¢	$66	+$3	10-27 16:11
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	No	+65	$65	99¢	$65	+$0	10-29 04:08
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	No	+50	$49	99¢	$49	$0	10-29 04:40
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	No	+50	$48	98¢	$49	+$1	10-27 16:12
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	+20	$19	100¢	$20	+$1	10-18 00:24
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	+20	$19	98¢	$20	+$0	10-27 16:11
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	No	+20	$19	97¢	$19	+$0	10-27 16:13
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	+0	-$10	100¢	$0	+$10	10-28 00:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in chicago on march 11 2026 54forhigher	100	$4.0K	2,272	1,926	+346	No	+$127	03-11 16:31
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 78°F or higher on May 13?	57	$3.7K	1,883	1,883	-0	Yes	+$11	05-13 14:53
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 66°F or higher on May 13?	34	$3.5K	1,776	1,775	+1	Yes	+$10	05-13 08:35
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on May 15?	53	$3.4K	1,711	1,711	+0	Yes	+$12	05-15 08:15
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on May 16?	29	$3.1K	1,560	1,560	+0	No	+$32	05-15 13:46
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 72°F or higher on May 13?	26	$2.8K	1,391	1,391	+0	No	+$8	05-13 11:05
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on May 18?	6	$2.6K	1,305	1,305	+0	No	+$5	05-17 13:56
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 15?	63	$2.4K	1,300	1,100	+200	No	+$5	05-15 00:54
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on May 14?	33	$2.3K	1,278	1,083	+195	Yes	+$7	05-14 08:31
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on May 18?	47	$2.3K	1,176	1,176	+0	Yes	+$9	05-17 17:36
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 9?	33	$2.2K	1,112	1,112	+0	No	+$8	06-09 06:00
highest temperature in wellington on february 6 2026 16corbelow	15	$2.2K	1,071	1,121	-50	No	+$4	02-05 02:16
highest temperature in nyc on february 7 2026 16 17f	35	$2.2K	1,195	970	+225	No	+$7	02-07 05:10
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 17?	47	$2.0K	1,023	1,023	+0	Yes	+$5	05-16 16:47
highest temperature in toronto on march 7 2026 8corbelow	99	$2.0K	1,129	914	+215	No	+$8	03-07 11:23
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or below on May 16?	26	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$5	05-16 01:55
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 82°F or higher on May 14?	37	$2.0K	995	995	+0	Yes	+$15	05-14 08:40
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 71°F or below on April 29?	28	$2.0K	960	998	-38	No	+$5	04-29 02:29
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 51°F or below on May 6?	20	$1.9K	932	932	+0	No	+$5	05-07 02:32
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 52°F or higher on May 21?	23	$1.8K	923	923	+0	Yes	+$10	05-21 13:37
highest temperature in seoul on march 4 2026 2corbelow	55	$1.8K	1,062	758	+304	No	+$7	03-03 09:09
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 14?	31	$1.8K	906	906	+0	Yes	+$7	05-14 13:52
highest temperature in nyc on march 9 2026 51forbelow	18	$1.8K	900	890	+10	No	+$5	03-09 05:02
highest temperature in wellington on february 12 2026 19c	26	$1.8K	895	889	+6	No	+$18	02-12 03:04
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 60°F or higher on May 12?	12	$1.7K	863	863	+0	Yes	+$3	05-12 04:28
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 12?	12	$1.7K	860	860	+0	No	+$2	06-13 05:07
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on April 29?	31	$1.7K	858	858	+0	No	+$3	04-29 03:54
highest temperature in wellington on march 11 2026 13corbelow	43	$1.7K	800	900	-100	No	+$5	03-10 02:57
highest temperature in atlanta on march 16 2026 55forbelow	14	$1.7K	851	851	+0	No	+$7	03-16 04:42
highest temperature in lucknow on march 9 2026 41c	33	$1.7K	860	829	+31	No	+$6	03-09 06:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 09:22:28	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on October 30?	No	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0x4a1f4e…
10-29 09:22:11	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on October 30?	No	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0x4e96ce…
10-29 09:22:02	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on October 30?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x8277bc…
10-29 09:21:14	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on October 29?	No	BUY	43	99¢	$43	0x4b1726…
10-29 09:20:44	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on October 29?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xf784f8…
10-29 09:18:44	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on October 31?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x4fb9fd…
10-29 09:18:23	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on October 31?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x3d6cb4…
10-29 09:18:19	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on October 31?	No	BUY	334	100¢	$334	0x5ebb40…
10-29 09:18:16	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on October 31?	No	BUY	134	100¢	$134	0x17d767…
10-29 09:17:55	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on October 30?	No	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0x6e95f1…
10-29 09:17:52	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on October 30?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x53e61f…
10-29 09:17:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on October 30?	No	BUY	424	100¢	$423	0x0dd3ab…
10-29 09:17:05	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on October 31?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x81929a…
10-29 09:17:01	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	235	100¢	$235	0x3e3b7c…
10-29 09:16:52	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on October 31?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x4735fa…
10-29 09:16:05	Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 5°C or below on October 30?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x1bbd80…
10-29 09:15:55	lowest temperature in wellington on october 31 2026 13c	No	BUY	305	100¢	$305	0x94e062…
10-29 09:15:19	highest temperature in wellington on october 31 2026 18c	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0x325ee8…
10-29 09:15:13	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0xaed536…
10-29 07:48:08	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30?	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x8f3696…
10-29 07:13:34	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	69	97¢	$67	0x9d3ba3…
10-29 06:33:02	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x3c4765…
10-29 04:40:38	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x459b5a…
10-29 04:39:59	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 30°C or higher on October 30?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x0f72d0…
10-29 04:39:50	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C or below on October 30?	No	BUY	166	100¢	$166	0x96a63a…
10-29 04:39:40	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 30°C or higher on October 30?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x2c7ad2…
10-29 04:39:23	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 29°C or higher on October 29?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x5ba611…
10-29 04:37:55	Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on October 30?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x1a064b…
10-29 04:37:38	Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C or higher on October 30?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xd5d5dc…
10-29 04:37:14	Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 11°C on October 29?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5b9e4d…
10-29 04:36:52	Will the lowest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on October 30?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xb9c4cf…
10-29 04:36:43	Will the lowest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C or higher on October 30?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x4f4e8c…
10-29 04:36:17	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C or higher on October 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x84f8d6…
10-29 04:35:47	Will the lowest temperature in Lucknow be 18°C on October 29?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc4e0a7…
10-29 04:33:17	Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on October 30?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x5a7928…
10-29 04:32:29	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 30?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xd6ceca…
10-29 04:32:25	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on October 30?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7b1c3e…
10-29 04:32:14	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 30?	No	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0xeb5559…
10-29 04:31:26	Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 10°C on October 30?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x9b3dcf…
10-29 04:29:55	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on October 30?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x294202…
10-29 04:28:16	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C on October 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x4d0362…
10-29 04:27:22	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 5°C or below on October 29?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0xf409f6…
10-29 04:27:22	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 6°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0xe027ac…
10-29 04:26:04	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 29?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xfb50ed…
10-29 04:25:50	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 29?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x73b475…
10-29 04:25:37	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 29?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xbb0745…
10-29 04:25:13	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 29?	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x46e4b9…
10-29 04:25:08	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x392571…
10-29 04:25:02	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on October 29?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xaa27b3…
10-29 04:23:04	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on October 29?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x71b8eb…
10-29 04:20:23	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	97¢	$49	0x9c8c1b…
10-29 04:18:49	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3a666e…
10-29 04:18:44	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x694d81…
10-29 04:18:40	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfe8207…
10-29 04:18:35	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x19a1de…
10-29 04:18:32	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5e63cb…
10-29 04:18:26	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8b44e8…
10-29 04:18:22	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb46a5c…
10-29 04:18:05	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 30?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xc001a9…
10-29 04:17:59	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 30?	No	BUY	65	100¢	$64	0x39d176…
10-29 04:17:38	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 10°C or below on October 30?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x0e87d7…
10-29 04:17:32	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on October 30?	No	BUY	245	100¢	$245	0xf4ed9e…
10-29 04:16:28	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or higher on October 30?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x6b8b64…
10-29 04:15:49	Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 15°C or higher on October 30?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xe79265…
10-29 04:08:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30?	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xd9b1a2…
10-29 04:08:28	US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Oct 31?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xc05ba0…
10-29 04:08:04	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x1cc055…
10-29 04:07:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	40	96¢	$39	0xf5d4f4…
10-29 04:07:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x8c9d98…
10-29 03:44:43	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30?	Yes	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0xf13a78…
10-29 03:44:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x7cfdd0…
10-28 20:12:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	160	100¢	$159	0x81d947…
10-28 17:55:26	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xb84ac7…
10-28 11:38:28	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on October 30?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x34e839…
10-28 11:36:49	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 18°C or below on October 30?	No	BUY	181	100¢	$181	0x7a7c53…
10-28 11:35:38	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C or below on October 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xc8add0…
10-28 11:35:20	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C on October 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xe0fed0…
10-28 11:34:23	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 8°C on October 29?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf6d5ab…
10-28 11:33:49	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on October 29?	No	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0x64a7cd…
10-28 11:31:35	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 30?	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0xd83035…
10-28 11:25:32	Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 30?	No	BUY	275	100¢	$275	0xe5cfbd…
10-28 01:34:36	US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Oct 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x4477a4…
10-28 01:02:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xf53e2f…
10-28 00:49:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x8a35d1…
10-28 00:11:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf4141e…
10-28 00:04:38	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xbfafb4…
10-27 23:57:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x0db6d7…
10-27 20:20:03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	SELL	150	100¢	$149	0xf738b1…
10-27 16:13:35	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x39dc14…
10-27 16:12:17	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x528096…
10-27 16:12:12	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x55769a…
10-27 16:11:50	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xc763bd…
10-27 16:11:21	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xb8d7f4…
10-27 16:11:14	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0x80e32d…
10-27 16:10:29	Will Iran target Qatar by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x624571…
10-27 16:07:42	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on October 29?	No	BUY	175	100¢	$175	0xdd5a13…
10-27 16:05:45	Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on October 28?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x692adf…
10-27 16:04:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	160	98¢	$156	0x850303…
10-27 15:58:35	Will the lowest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or higher on October 29?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x8a3e1b…
10-27 15:57:00	Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on October 29?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x5ac036…