Palatable-Argument — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.26K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.30K

Hit rate

32.4%

Resolved

Trades

656

lifetime

Volume

$363.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$553

Open exposure

$14.0K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 07-02 12:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

70% — —

Politics

23% 67% $-2,255

Tech

7% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	+8,729	$7,831	100¢	$8.7K	+$868	06-16 15:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+2,259	$1,830	82¢	$1.9K	+$34	07-02 12:04
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	+2,300	$1,406	76¢	$1.7K	+$331	06-23 16:46
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	+1,761	$1,250	70¢	$1.2K	$-9	06-29 06:15
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	+559	$428	91¢	$508	+$80	06-22 21:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	13	$47.1K	25,393	25,353	+40	open	—	04-30 09:40
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	15	$26.6K	15,014	12,757	+2,257	open	—	05-26 21:33
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	47	$24.3K	27,557	0	+27,557	open	—	05-18 14:52
minneapolis border patrol shooter charged	21	$21.5K	12,111	12,111	+0	open	—	03-17 11:02
will trump visit china by march 31	27	$14.7K	8,218	7,882	+336	open	—	03-27 13:26
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	3	$12.5K	13,361	0	+13,361	open	—	02-23 00:09
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	5	$12.5K	6,516	6,516	+0	open	—	04-09 10:52
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	16	$12.2K	14,815	0	+14,815	open	—	05-11 15:38
will any of trumps greenland tariffs go into effect by feb 1	6	$8.3K	11,564	0	+11,564	open	—	01-24 12:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	11	$7.8K	8,729	0	+8,729	open	—	06-16 15:24
will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	3	$6.7K	7,822	0	+7,822	open	—	06-22 15:34
spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt4t	1	$5.9K	6,028	0	+6,028	open	—	06-11 11:07
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	2	$5.8K	6,504	0	+6,504	open	—	03-24 09:52
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	10	$5.7K	5,423	936	+4,487	open	—	03-25 18:22
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	2	$5.5K	4,756	1,229	+3,527	open	—	06-11 11:32
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$5.5K	2,900	2,900	+0	open	—	03-12 15:32
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	1	$5.2K	5,392	0	+5,392	open	—	06-07 22:48
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	3	$5.2K	0	5,199	-5,199	open	—	03-25 11:48
will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	1	$5.1K	5,523	0	+5,523	open	—	06-16 15:57
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	16	$5.1K	5,600	0	+5,600	open	—	06-23 14:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	13	$4.7K	3,551	3,550	+1	open	—	04-18 13:00
will ukraine join the board of peace	3	$4.2K	3,757	1,249	+2,508	open	—	03-27 22:53
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$4.0K	5,805	0	+5,805	open	—	02-28 00:22
will 0 judges rule in favor of trumps tarriffs	6	$4.0K	4,440	0	+4,440	open	—	02-04 21:56
will belgium join the board of peace	6	$4.0K	3,400	1,117	+2,283	open	—	03-17 09:56
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	2	$3.8K	4,601	0	+4,601	open	—	06-29 10:32
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	9	$3.7K	2,934	1,532	+1,402	open	—	03-17 10:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$3.6K	4,476	0	+4,476	Yes	$-3,581	03-11 10:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	2	$3.3K	3,546	0	+3,546	open	—	04-08 14:44
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	8	$3.1K	3,363	0	+3,363	open	—	06-11 17:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 12:04:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,192	81¢	$1,775	0xafb1e7…
07-02 11:58:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	67	81¢	$55	0xdb5fba…
07-01 15:52:10	fifwc usa bih 2026 07 01 team to advance	Bosnia and Herzegovina	BUY	440	17¢	$75	0x1478a7…
07-01 15:13:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	1,459	31¢	$452	0xc627d3…
06-30 16:23:55	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 spread home 1pt5	Mexico	BUY	225	19¢	$43	0xb1b625…
06-29 10:32:59	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	1,220	81¢	$988	0x7e1039…
06-29 07:38:26	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	3,381	82¢	$2,772	0xde6036…
06-29 06:15:14	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	79	71¢	$56	0x57d8a6…
06-28 13:31:49	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	1,681	71¢	$1,194	0x8f6a5b…
06-28 13:27:58	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	959	62¢	$595	0x521fbf…
06-26 14:54:55	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 btts	Yes	BUY	220	63¢	$139	0x32affc…
06-26 13:18:06	trump signs housing bill by end of july 20260624145217694	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xf39015…
06-23 16:46:31	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	12	60¢	$7	0x61ea6c…
06-23 16:28:28	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	12	60¢	$8	0x5f794a…
06-23 14:14:05	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xe35e7c…
06-23 12:07:59	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x508d1c…
06-23 11:22:55	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	793	90¢	$713	0x111e72…
06-23 10:03:56	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xfc1092…
06-23 09:20:31	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x2234ca…
06-23 09:17:55	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	22	60¢	$13	0xfeb025…
06-23 07:00:17	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	741	91¢	$674	0x2fe3e7…
06-23 06:49:44	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	19	91¢	$17	0xca9083…
06-22 23:09:22	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xe89231…
06-22 22:52:31	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	28	91¢	$25	0x1dbaf4…
06-22 22:09:43	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	114	91¢	$104	0x80ed16…
06-22 21:34:10	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	49	91¢	$45	0x8fbf52…
06-22 21:02:20	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	25	76¢	$19	0xf51cea…
06-22 21:00:37	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0x11a8e4…
06-22 20:52:32	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	6	76¢	$4	0x97f9f1…
06-22 20:44:05	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x815142…
06-22 20:41:41	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0x0721a1…
06-22 20:41:40	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	34	76¢	$26	0x480a94…
06-22 20:41:38	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	207	76¢	$158	0xc52285…
06-22 20:41:38	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x7a4759…
06-22 20:41:38	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	21	76¢	$16	0x7797e0…
06-22 20:41:32	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xc4fe17…
06-22 20:41:32	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	9	76¢	$7	0xa9901d…
06-22 20:41:32	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0xa4fdbb…
06-22 20:41:32	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x7d9fc7…
06-22 20:41:32	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x758205…
06-22 20:41:32	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x030929…
06-22 20:41:29	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	22	76¢	$17	0x5377b9…
06-22 20:36:11	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	927	62¢	$575	0x08f6b1…
06-22 20:31:07	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0x917586…
06-22 20:28:16	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0x07c2fa…
06-22 20:28:07	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xec1ace…
06-22 20:28:07	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	22	76¢	$17	0x5e87c4…
06-22 20:28:05	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	147	76¢	$112	0xfc334d…
06-22 19:11:55	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	67	91¢	$61	0xaeea12…
06-22 16:38:29	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	66	91¢	$60	0xefc984…
06-22 16:22:38	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x0f3f0a…
06-22 16:01:05	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	79	91¢	$72	0x2790c6…
06-22 15:34:04	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	3,312	96¢	$3,196	0x2f5271…
06-22 15:30:26	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 spread home 2pt5	France	BUY	590	56¢	$330	0x8f16ac…
06-22 13:14:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1,290	71¢	$916	0x9657b6…
06-22 00:50:34	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0xe6e50d…
06-22 00:22:14	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	1,233	89¢	$1,097	0xbc635d…
06-21 23:14:23	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x1ea868…
06-21 23:09:34	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	1,966	91¢	$1,789	0xb26174…
06-21 16:23:17	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x3a7099…
06-20 04:53:49	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x8a7ad9…
06-20 03:04:05	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	13	62¢	$8	0xdad019…
06-19 20:39:04	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xdaa666…
06-19 17:32:11	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	250	62¢	$155	0xbb196b…
06-19 13:46:32	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x6d3725…
06-19 09:22:17	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x61a3d3…
06-16 22:38:07	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	522	70¢	$366	0xa9b3ed…
06-16 22:37:25	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xe3e6cb…
06-16 22:37:20	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x4bd7aa…
06-16 22:37:14	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x484831…
06-16 22:37:13	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x9152f6…
06-16 22:37:10	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x581198…
06-16 22:37:07	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x4fde4d…
06-16 22:32:34	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	1,362	72¢	$980	0x39d828…
06-16 22:31:55	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	1,168	70¢	$820	0x18ad79…
06-16 15:57:25	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	Yes	BUY	5,523	93¢	$5,136	0xf2d665…
06-16 15:24:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	207	82¢	$170	0xf16943…
06-16 15:24:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0x0362ac…
06-16 15:24:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0x9fe1cb…
06-16 15:24:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	3	82¢	$2	0x5da90e…
06-16 15:24:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0xd22685…
06-16 15:14:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x2b239d…
06-16 15:14:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	600	82¢	$492	0x731a1d…
06-16 15:13:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	19	82¢	$16	0x61351f…
06-16 13:00:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,459	61¢	$890	0x5fcca6…
06-16 12:53:09	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	801	77¢	$620	0xee3fd2…
06-16 12:51:18	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	BUY	1,093	65¢	$709	0x3cefe7…
06-16 12:49:52	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	2,024	85¢	$1,725	0x3c5fb2…
06-16 12:49:12	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	3,709	78¢	$2,877	0x714293…
06-13 19:19:06	will spain reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134495	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xe9dac8…
06-13 18:51:34	will spain reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134495	Yes	BUY	149	61¢	$91	0x5616e2…
06-13 17:11:52	will spain reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134495	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x7be73e…
06-13 17:11:52	will spain reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134495	Yes	BUY	19	61¢	$12	0x3681e0…
06-11 17:21:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,900	92¢	$1,748	0x3cbb0b…
06-11 17:17:34	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	2,173	93¢	$2,021	0x28a06a…
06-11 17:15:19	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	117	93¢	$109	0xcff20b…
06-11 15:19:57	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	No	BUY	58	91¢	$52	0xf36a29…
06-11 14:16:34	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x95f41c…
06-11 14:12:37	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x38ed73…
06-11 14:07:36	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	No	BUY	52	91¢	$47	0x337795…