Palatable-Argument — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.26K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

32.4%

Resolved

Trades

781

lifetime

Volume

$394.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$505

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 08-07 15:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

66% — —

Politics

26% 67% $-2,255

Tech

6% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	13	$47.1K	25,393	25,353	+40	open	—	04-30 09:40
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	15	$26.6K	15,014	12,757	+2,257	open	—	05-26 21:33
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	47	$24.3K	27,557	0	+27,557	open	—	05-18 14:52
minneapolis border patrol shooter charged	21	$21.5K	12,111	12,111	+0	open	—	03-17 11:02
will trump visit china by march 31	27	$14.7K	8,218	7,882	+336	open	—	03-27 13:26
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	3	$12.5K	13,361	0	+13,361	open	—	02-23 00:09
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	5	$12.5K	6,516	6,516	+0	open	—	04-09 10:52
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	16	$12.2K	14,815	0	+14,815	open	—	05-11 15:38
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829	31	$11.4K	13,359	0	+13,359	open	—	07-23 00:21
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	25	$9.4K	12,850	0	+12,850	open	—	08-04 14:58
will any of trumps greenland tariffs go into effect by feb 1	6	$8.3K	11,564	0	+11,564	open	—	01-24 12:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	11	$7.8K	8,729	0	+8,729	open	—	06-16 15:24
will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	3	$6.7K	7,822	0	+7,822	open	—	06-22 15:34
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	28	$6.1K	8,437	0	+8,437	open	—	08-06 14:50
spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt4t	1	$5.9K	6,028	0	+6,028	open	—	06-11 11:07
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	2	$5.8K	6,504	0	+6,504	open	—	03-24 09:52
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	10	$5.7K	5,423	936	+4,487	open	—	03-25 18:22
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	2	$5.5K	4,756	1,229	+3,527	open	—	06-11 11:32
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$5.5K	2,900	2,900	+0	open	—	03-12 15:32
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	1	$5.2K	5,392	0	+5,392	open	—	06-07 22:48
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	3	$5.2K	0	5,199	-5,199	open	—	03-25 11:48
will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	1	$5.1K	5,523	0	+5,523	open	—	06-16 15:57
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	16	$5.1K	5,600	0	+5,600	open	—	06-23 14:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	13	$4.7K	3,551	3,550	+1	open	—	04-18 13:00
will ukraine join the board of peace	3	$4.2K	3,757	1,249	+2,508	open	—	03-27 22:53
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$4.0K	5,805	0	+5,805	open	—	02-28 00:22
will 0 judges rule in favor of trumps tarriffs	6	$4.0K	4,440	0	+4,440	open	—	02-04 21:56
will belgium join the board of peace	6	$4.0K	3,400	1,117	+2,283	open	—	03-17 09:56
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	9	$3.7K	2,934	1,532	+1,402	open	—	03-17 10:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$3.6K	4,476	0	+4,476	Yes	$-3,581	03-11 10:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-07 15:15:34	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	1,000	72¢	$720	0x2ed77e…
08-06 14:50:18	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	180	79¢	$142	0xea9652…
08-06 14:18:27	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	500	79¢	$395	0xad613b…
08-06 14:14:44	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	550	79¢	$434	0x543f61…
08-06 14:04:38	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	300	79¢	$237	0x532e6c…
08-06 13:46:23	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x65c03b…
08-06 11:52:18	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	236	80¢	$189	0xa76d47…
08-06 11:51:02	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	847	80¢	$678	0x3c6553…
08-06 11:48:11	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x570205…
08-06 11:44:15	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	49	80¢	$39	0x9477df…
08-06 11:24:29	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x86dba0…
08-06 11:24:08	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	48	80¢	$38	0xc93488…
08-05 15:42:47	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	414	63¢	$261	0x0d31dc…
08-05 15:42:27	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x7adf39…
08-05 15:42:26	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x8e5895…
08-05 15:42:24	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	391	63¢	$246	0x73a8e2…
08-05 15:42:24	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	153	63¢	$96	0x0ea273…
08-04 23:41:53	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	192	66¢	$127	0x171b08…
08-04 23:41:23	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	74	66¢	$49	0xdae767…
08-04 19:17:00	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xf1b690…
08-04 19:16:17	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	29	66¢	$19	0xd520be…
08-04 19:08:11	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	36	66¢	$24	0x8df23d…
08-04 19:02:57	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	294	66¢	$194	0x9ff5e3…
08-04 18:58:32	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0x6a39e5…
08-04 18:56:38	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	235	66¢	$155	0xea0b2f…
08-04 18:54:56	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	144	66¢	$95	0x53755a…
08-04 18:52:06	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	205	66¢	$135	0x4a616e…
08-04 15:10:27	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	No	BUY	45	88¢	$39	0xf90724…
08-04 14:59:05	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x9d17de…
08-04 14:58:47	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	1,299	72¢	$935	0x48ef5f…
08-03 19:22:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	4,458	79¢	$3,522	0x343736…
08-03 13:17:12	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	1,805	67¢	$1,218	0x8bbbbc…
08-02 02:22:23	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	1,176	72¢	$847	0x80ff1c…
08-02 02:17:41	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	413	72¢	$297	0x691a55…
08-02 02:17:12	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	1,127	74¢	$834	0x98ec08…
08-02 02:11:53	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	62	74¢	$46	0x1b02c7…
07-31 21:09:02	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	No	BUY	990	62¢	$614	0x83a8e0…
07-31 19:10:12	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	1,669	74¢	$1,235	0xbd5205…
07-28 23:07:10	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xc6afdc…
07-28 09:45:20	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	714	72¢	$514	0x12c742…
07-28 05:49:19	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	586	72¢	$422	0x741f37…
07-27 14:30:48	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	144	73¢	$105	0x279a5f…
07-27 13:55:30	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	415	73¢	$303	0x2c2959…
07-23 00:21:39	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	1,559	90¢	$1,403	0x4477f6…
07-21 22:45:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	818	91¢	$745	0xa6fc53…
07-21 21:09:13	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	56	91¢	$51	0xbebafc…
07-21 21:00:13	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x1736c3…
07-21 20:32:16	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x280295…
07-21 19:22:09	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xf4c3e3…
07-21 19:12:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	43	91¢	$40	0x84fb77…
07-21 18:37:18	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0x7da654…
07-11 05:57:11	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	280	76¢	$213	0x7c5a94…
07-11 04:59:43	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	28	76¢	$21	0x5b7ea9…
07-11 04:13:53	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	0	76¢	$0	0x5449f0…
07-09 23:50:02	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x32e2a8…
07-09 22:06:41	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	144	84¢	$121	0x8459da…
07-09 22:01:19	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xb15b1c…
07-09 19:37:55	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x6f8804…
07-09 18:38:49	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x26d01c…
07-09 18:18:44	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	3	84¢	$2	0x17bf81…
07-08 23:29:29	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	1,812	76¢	$1,377	0xf5301b…
07-08 20:29:25	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644	No	BUY	295	78¢	$230	0xc55ddf…
07-08 20:24:16	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829	No	BUY	1,125	74¢	$832	0xcccbcd…
07-08 16:26:28	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	139	76¢	$106	0xf93184…
07-08 13:20:34	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xd3b10b…
07-08 13:20:31	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	964	78¢	$752	0x5947f8…
07-08 10:17:56	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	56	79¢	$44	0x7cd09f…
07-08 10:17:34	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xdf2ddf…
07-08 10:17:19	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	742	79¢	$586	0x514eff…
07-08 10:06:05	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	48	79¢	$38	0x035517…
07-08 09:58:49	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	409	79¢	$323	0xfb5408…
07-07 18:50:47	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	279	90¢	$251	0xf05df8…
07-07 16:42:43	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	730	90¢	$657	0x2dbdd9…
07-07 07:57:34	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	67	72¢	$48	0x555c33…
07-07 07:56:11	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	248	72¢	$179	0xd35e5f…
07-07 07:55:01	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	290	72¢	$209	0xbc8f61…
07-07 07:53:50	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	339	72¢	$244	0x143ace…
07-07 07:50:17	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	265	72¢	$191	0x3a4db9…
07-07 00:06:11	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	1,245	93¢	$1,158	0x8d1579…
07-06 23:33:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	174	93¢	$162	0x5bc91b…
07-06 21:59:05	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	112	93¢	$105	0x487bfc…
07-06 18:04:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	314	93¢	$292	0xda8976…
07-06 16:46:02	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	399	93¢	$371	0x408e54…
07-06 16:44:32	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x2573bd…
07-06 14:34:29	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	1,559	83¢	$1,294	0x7fc8ce…
07-06 13:37:22	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 spread away 1pt5	Spain	BUY	200	28¢	$56	0x6aab6d…
07-06 07:37:07	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x9469a1…
07-06 07:33:11	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	28	94¢	$27	0x325c0a…
07-06 07:28:38	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	31	94¢	$29	0xac3ead…
07-06 07:24:01	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	29	94¢	$27	0x26ece2…
07-06 07:03:35	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0xd93097…
07-06 06:59:14	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	31	94¢	$29	0xd2dc69…
07-06 06:55:19	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	29	94¢	$27	0x9fea65…
07-06 06:49:14	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	29	94¢	$28	0x44902e…
07-06 06:43:50	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	28	94¢	$27	0x9efd37…
07-06 06:39:43	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	27	94¢	$26	0xbbbfb2…
07-06 06:35:04	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x67bec6…
07-06 06:30:19	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	24	94¢	$23	0x9e1032…
07-06 06:25:28	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	30	94¢	$29	0x13847c…
07-06 06:10:34	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	16	72¢	$11	0x7b5152…