Palatable-Argument — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.26K

Unrealized P&L

-$344

Hit rate

32.4%

Resolved

Trades

736

lifetime

Volume

$377.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$513

Open exposure

$8.06K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 07-23 00:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

68% — —

Politics

25% 67% $-2,255

Tech

6% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	+5,245	$3,849	78¢	$4.1K	+$216	07-11 05:57
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+3,484	$2,724	52¢	$1.8K	$-930	07-06 00:52
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	+2,300	$1,406	78¢	$1.8K	+$377	06-23 16:46
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	+559	$428	75¢	$420	$-7	06-22 21:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	13	$47.1K	25,393	25,353	+40	open	—	04-30 09:40
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	15	$26.6K	15,014	12,757	+2,257	open	—	05-26 21:33
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	47	$24.3K	27,557	0	+27,557	open	—	05-18 14:52
minneapolis border patrol shooter charged	21	$21.5K	12,111	12,111	+0	open	—	03-17 11:02
will trump visit china by march 31	27	$14.7K	8,218	7,882	+336	open	—	03-27 13:26
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	3	$12.5K	13,361	0	+13,361	open	—	02-23 00:09
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	5	$12.5K	6,516	6,516	+0	open	—	04-09 10:52
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	16	$12.2K	14,815	0	+14,815	open	—	05-11 15:38
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829	31	$11.4K	13,359	0	+13,359	open	—	07-23 00:21
will any of trumps greenland tariffs go into effect by feb 1	6	$8.3K	11,564	0	+11,564	open	—	01-24 12:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	11	$7.8K	8,729	0	+8,729	open	—	06-16 15:24
will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	3	$6.7K	7,822	0	+7,822	open	—	06-22 15:34
spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt4t	1	$5.9K	6,028	0	+6,028	open	—	06-11 11:07
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	2	$5.8K	6,504	0	+6,504	open	—	03-24 09:52
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	10	$5.7K	5,423	936	+4,487	open	—	03-25 18:22
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	2	$5.5K	4,756	1,229	+3,527	open	—	06-11 11:32
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$5.5K	2,900	2,900	+0	open	—	03-12 15:32
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	1	$5.2K	5,392	0	+5,392	open	—	06-07 22:48
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	3	$5.2K	0	5,199	-5,199	open	—	03-25 11:48
will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	1	$5.1K	5,523	0	+5,523	open	—	06-16 15:57
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	16	$5.1K	5,600	0	+5,600	open	—	06-23 14:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	13	$4.7K	3,551	3,550	+1	open	—	04-18 13:00
will ukraine join the board of peace	3	$4.2K	3,757	1,249	+2,508	open	—	03-27 22:53
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$4.0K	5,805	0	+5,805	open	—	02-28 00:22
will 0 judges rule in favor of trumps tarriffs	6	$4.0K	4,440	0	+4,440	open	—	02-04 21:56
will belgium join the board of peace	6	$4.0K	3,400	1,117	+2,283	open	—	03-17 09:56
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	13	$3.8K	5,245	0	+5,245	open	—	07-11 05:57
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	9	$3.7K	2,934	1,532	+1,402	open	—	03-17 10:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$3.6K	4,476	0	+4,476	Yes	$-3,581	03-11 10:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	2	$3.3K	3,546	0	+3,546	open	—	04-08 14:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 00:21:39	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	1,559	90¢	$1,403	0x4477f6…
07-21 22:45:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	818	91¢	$745	0xa6fc53…
07-21 21:09:13	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	56	91¢	$51	0xbebafc…
07-21 21:00:13	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x1736c3…
07-21 20:32:16	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x280295…
07-21 19:22:09	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xf4c3e3…
07-21 19:12:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	43	91¢	$40	0x84fb77…
07-21 18:37:18	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0x7da654…
07-11 05:57:11	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	280	76¢	$213	0x7c5a94…
07-11 04:59:43	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	28	76¢	$21	0x5b7ea9…
07-11 04:13:53	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	0	76¢	$0	0x5449f0…
07-09 23:50:02	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x32e2a8…
07-09 22:06:41	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	144	84¢	$121	0x8459da…
07-09 22:01:19	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xb15b1c…
07-09 19:37:55	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x6f8804…
07-09 18:38:49	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x26d01c…
07-09 18:18:44	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	3	84¢	$2	0x17bf81…
07-08 23:29:29	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	1,812	76¢	$1,377	0xf5301b…
07-08 20:29:25	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644	No	BUY	295	78¢	$230	0xc55ddf…
07-08 20:24:16	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829	No	BUY	1,125	74¢	$832	0xcccbcd…
07-08 16:26:28	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	139	76¢	$106	0xf93184…
07-08 13:20:34	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xd3b10b…
07-08 13:20:31	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	964	78¢	$752	0x5947f8…
07-08 10:17:56	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	56	79¢	$44	0x7cd09f…
07-08 10:17:34	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xdf2ddf…
07-08 10:17:19	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	742	79¢	$586	0x514eff…
07-08 10:06:05	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	48	79¢	$38	0x035517…
07-08 09:58:49	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	409	79¢	$323	0xfb5408…
07-07 18:50:47	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	279	90¢	$251	0xf05df8…
07-07 16:42:43	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	730	90¢	$657	0x2dbdd9…
07-07 07:57:34	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	67	72¢	$48	0x555c33…
07-07 07:56:11	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	248	72¢	$179	0xd35e5f…
07-07 07:55:01	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	290	72¢	$209	0xbc8f61…
07-07 07:53:50	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	339	72¢	$244	0x143ace…
07-07 07:50:17	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	265	72¢	$191	0x3a4db9…
07-07 00:06:11	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	1,245	93¢	$1,158	0x8d1579…
07-06 23:33:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	174	93¢	$162	0x5bc91b…
07-06 21:59:05	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	112	93¢	$105	0x487bfc…
07-06 18:04:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	314	93¢	$292	0xda8976…
07-06 16:46:02	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	399	93¢	$371	0x408e54…
07-06 16:44:32	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x2573bd…
07-06 14:34:29	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	1,559	83¢	$1,294	0x7fc8ce…
07-06 13:37:22	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 spread away 1pt5	Spain	BUY	200	28¢	$56	0x6aab6d…
07-06 07:37:07	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x9469a1…
07-06 07:33:11	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	28	94¢	$27	0x325c0a…
07-06 07:28:38	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	31	94¢	$29	0xac3ead…
07-06 07:24:01	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	29	94¢	$27	0x26ece2…
07-06 07:03:35	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0xd93097…
07-06 06:59:14	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	31	94¢	$29	0xd2dc69…
07-06 06:55:19	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	29	94¢	$27	0x9fea65…
07-06 06:49:14	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	29	94¢	$28	0x44902e…
07-06 06:43:50	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	28	94¢	$27	0x9efd37…
07-06 06:39:43	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	27	94¢	$26	0xbbbfb2…
07-06 06:35:04	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x67bec6…
07-06 06:30:19	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	24	94¢	$23	0x9e1032…
07-06 06:25:28	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	30	94¢	$29	0x13847c…
07-06 06:10:34	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	16	72¢	$11	0x7b5152…
07-06 03:11:19	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x8520b6…
07-06 03:06:40	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x85dfa4…
07-06 03:02:34	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	28	94¢	$27	0xc9910f…
07-06 02:57:29	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0xf0509b…
07-06 02:51:25	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	28	94¢	$27	0xfc6e52…
07-06 02:45:07	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	31	94¢	$29	0x33bfc5…
07-06 02:35:38	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x0b5c4d…
07-06 02:24:13	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x00226f…
07-06 02:17:32	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	28	94¢	$27	0x69ad4a…
07-06 02:12:19	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0xa23861…
07-06 00:52:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,215	73¢	$887	0xbbfc2a…
07-06 00:42:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x0cb970…
07-05 23:07:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x57a918…
07-05 23:03:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x31e3e4…
07-05 11:28:49	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	England	BUY	225	54¢	$122	0xc0d85d…
07-05 11:12:43	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 btts	Yes	BUY	225	61¢	$137	0x9b6917…
07-03 02:21:37	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0xc2ddf3…
07-03 01:27:44	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	111	91¢	$101	0x029ff1…
07-02 23:09:22	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x4369a7…
07-02 21:57:22	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0xc32125…
07-02 21:39:08	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	35	91¢	$32	0xd885f9…
07-02 20:19:02	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	178	91¢	$162	0x51ed3a…
07-02 20:05:31	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	196	91¢	$178	0x927b67…
07-02 12:04:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,192	81¢	$1,775	0xafb1e7…
07-02 11:58:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	67	81¢	$55	0xdb5fba…
07-01 15:52:10	fifwc usa bih 2026 07 01 team to advance	Bosnia and Herzegovina	BUY	440	17¢	$75	0x1478a7…
07-01 15:13:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	1,459	31¢	$452	0xc627d3…
06-30 16:23:55	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 spread home 1pt5	Mexico	BUY	225	19¢	$43	0xb1b625…
06-29 10:32:59	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	1,220	81¢	$988	0x7e1039…
06-29 07:38:26	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	3,381	82¢	$2,772	0xde6036…
06-29 06:15:14	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	79	71¢	$56	0x57d8a6…
06-28 13:31:49	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	1,681	71¢	$1,194	0x8f6a5b…
06-28 13:27:58	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	959	62¢	$595	0x521fbf…
06-26 14:54:55	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 btts	Yes	BUY	220	63¢	$139	0x32affc…
06-26 13:18:06	trump signs housing bill by end of july 20260624145217694	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xf39015…
06-23 16:46:31	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	12	60¢	$7	0x61ea6c…
06-23 16:28:28	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	12	60¢	$8	0x5f794a…
06-23 14:14:05	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xe35e7c…
06-23 12:07:59	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x508d1c…
06-23 11:22:55	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	793	90¢	$713	0x111e72…
06-23 10:03:56	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xfc1092…
06-23 09:20:31	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x2234ca…
06-23 09:17:55	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	22	60¢	$13	0xfeb025…