Palatable-Argument 0x08c897…931da2
whale hot
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$37.6K
Unrealized P&L
+$8.33K
Hit rate
91.5%
Resolved
154
Trades
1,549
lifetime
Volume
$564.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$364
Open exposure
$102.9K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-09
last 10-31 02:30
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 70 days
Categories
Other
60% 76% +$37,982
Politics
33% 64% -$1,102
Tech
5% 89% +$1,913
Sports
2% 40% -$1,213
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
57 active days in 12wk • peak 131 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +27,416 $25,213 96¢ $26.2K +$970 10-16 08:52
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +19,529 $15,100 91¢ $17.7K +$2,632 09-28 17:13
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +17,299 $14,212 82¢ $14.3K +$60 10-11 11:43
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +11,991 $10,185 86¢ $10.3K +$68 10-20 23:36
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? No +10,635 $7,882 96¢ $10.2K +$2,274 09-18 13:37
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917 Yes +4,929 $4,525 98¢ $4.9K +$330 10-30 21:42
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No +4,512 $3,220 82¢ $3.7K +$503 09-15 12:46
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +3,306 $2,336 78¢ $2.6K +$259 10-09 23:09
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes -5,908 -$2,536 29¢ $-1684 +$852 10-10 13:56
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,603 $633 95¢ $1.5K +$889 05-20 19:54
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No +2,811 $3,032 52¢ $1.4K -$1,585 10-28 13:30
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes +4,456 $373 25¢ $1.1K +$750 09-14 09:45
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? No +1,120 $963 84¢ $946 -$17 08-22 14:57
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,009 $706 74¢ $742 +$35 10-31 02:30
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,005 $683 74¢ $739 +$55 09-08 11:21
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No -2,501 -$1,301 30¢ $-738 +$563 08-17 07:50
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? Yes +1,005 $623 72¢ $729 +$106 10-16 16:42
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,005 $523 56¢ $558 +$35 09-23 14:21
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +22,990 $138 2¢ $448 +$310 10-05 10:35
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes +3,834 $565 11¢ $422 -$144 10-19 13:28
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes -1,701 $19 24¢ $-400 -$418 10-30 23:14
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes -999 -$204 35¢ $-350 -$146 10-15 00:45
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +885 $363 38¢ $337 -$26 08-18 07:45
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +559 $184 42¢ $238 +$53 08-05 08:48
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +3,214 $170 5¢ $162 -$8 08-07 14:31
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No +1,005 $201 15¢ $146 -$55 09-29 02:18
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes +1,333 $187 10¢ $127 -$60 10-29 02:38
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes -406 -$147 30¢ $-120 +$27 10-19 19:37
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +10,501 $63 1¢ $79 +$16 08-07 14:30
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +3,000 $75 3¢ $76 +$2 07-31 21:11