Palatable-Argument — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.26K

Unrealized P&L

+$192

Hit rate

32.4%

Resolved

Trades

545

lifetime

Volume

$309.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$568

Open exposure

$14.1K

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 06-09 22:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

80% — —

Politics

18% 67% $-2,255

Tech

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	+5,392	$5,177	97¢	$5.2K	+$65	06-07 22:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	+5,620	$5,091	90¢	$5.1K	$-5	06-08 10:34
Epstein client list released by June 30?	No	+1,956	$1,820	97¢	$1.9K	+$81	06-04 10:43
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	+1,073	$998	94¢	$1.0K	+$16	06-09 22:16
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?	No	+552	$499	95¢	$523	+$25	06-03 06:03
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	+471	$284	62¢	$295	+$11	06-09 16:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	13	$47.1K	25,393	25,353	+40	open	—	04-30 09:40
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	15	$26.6K	15,014	12,757	+2,257	open	—	05-26 21:33
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	47	$24.3K	27,557	0	+27,557	open	—	05-18 14:52
minneapolis border patrol shooter charged	21	$21.5K	12,111	12,111	+0	open	—	03-17 11:02
will trump visit china by march 31	27	$14.7K	8,218	7,882	+336	open	—	03-27 13:26
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	3	$12.5K	13,361	0	+13,361	open	—	02-23 00:09
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	5	$12.5K	6,516	6,516	+0	open	—	04-09 10:52
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	16	$12.2K	14,815	0	+14,815	open	—	05-11 15:38
will any of trumps greenland tariffs go into effect by feb 1	6	$8.3K	11,564	0	+11,564	open	—	01-24 12:02
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	2	$5.8K	6,504	0	+6,504	open	—	03-24 09:52
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	10	$5.7K	5,423	936	+4,487	open	—	03-25 18:22
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$5.5K	2,900	2,900	+0	open	—	03-12 15:32
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	1	$5.2K	5,392	0	+5,392	open	—	06-07 22:48
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	3	$5.2K	0	5,199	-5,199	open	—	03-25 11:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$5.1K	5,620	0	+5,620	open	—	06-08 10:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	13	$4.7K	3,551	3,550	+1	open	—	04-18 13:00
will ukraine join the board of peace	3	$4.2K	3,757	1,249	+2,508	open	—	03-27 22:53
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$4.0K	5,805	0	+5,805	open	—	02-28 00:22
will 0 judges rule in favor of trumps tarriffs	6	$4.0K	4,440	0	+4,440	open	—	02-04 21:56
will belgium join the board of peace	6	$4.0K	3,400	1,117	+2,283	open	—	03-17 09:56
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	9	$3.7K	2,934	1,532	+1,402	open	—	03-17 10:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$3.6K	4,476	0	+4,476	Yes	$-3,581	03-11 10:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	2	$3.3K	3,546	0	+3,546	open	—	04-08 14:44
spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt2t	1	$2.8K	2,928	0	+2,928	open	—	06-09 16:20
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	3	$2.6K	2,802	0	+2,802	open	—	03-27 13:40
will the uk join the board of peace	2	$2.4K	2,992	0	+2,992	open	—	01-25 11:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$2.4K	1,229	1,229	+0	open	—	05-18 20:21
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	12	$2.3K	2,986	0	+2,986	open	—	03-28 09:51
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	16	$2.1K	1,299	1,299	+0	open	—	04-12 22:43
will trumps greenland tariffs go into effect for denmark by feburary 1	1	$2.1K	2,103	0	+2,103	open	—	01-24 12:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 22:16:13	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	41	93¢	$38	0x25f91a…
06-09 18:25:57	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	900	93¢	$837	0xf38232…
06-09 18:18:30	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	52	93¢	$49	0x3432ea…
06-09 18:03:48	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x021725…
06-09 17:25:36	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x3ad906…
06-09 16:52:43	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	471	60¢	$284	0xb812fe…
06-09 16:33:18	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	51	93¢	$47	0x29c60d…
06-09 16:20:07	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt2t	No	BUY	2,928	95¢	$2,770	0x4614dd…
06-08 10:34:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2,298	90¢	$2,068	0x001d1d…
06-08 09:32:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	3,322	91¢	$3,023	0x86b906…
06-07 22:48:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	5,392	96¢	$5,177	0x02d6a8…
06-04 10:43:58	Epstein client list released by June 30?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x90e96c…
06-04 10:43:24	Epstein client list released by June 30?	No	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x238919…
06-04 10:40:52	Epstein client list released by June 30?	No	BUY	430	95¢	$410	0x4382cf…
06-03 08:30:36	Epstein client list released by June 30?	No	BUY	143	95¢	$137	0xf152d2…
06-03 06:03:08	Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x695699…
06-03 06:03:00	Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?	No	BUY	532	90¢	$480	0x21e578…
06-01 13:32:48	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?	No	BUY	1,159	71¢	$823	0xf41e3d…
05-29 14:22:16	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?	No	BUY	449	70¢	$314	0xf791ff…
05-28 22:15:52	Epstein client list released by June 30?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x0059a8…
05-28 12:28:44	Epstein client list released by June 30?	No	BUY	44	92¢	$40	0xdcebc8…
05-27 22:50:28	Epstein client list released by June 30?	No	BUY	1,308	92¢	$1,203	0xe1fefe…
05-26 21:33:57	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	No	SELL	2,499	99¢	$2,484	0x84b2bf…
05-21 11:35:37	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	No	SELL	8,100	99¢	$8,043	0xb4faa0…
05-21 10:13:34	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	No	SELL	660	99¢	$652	0xaadf41…
05-21 03:18:12	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xcc6de9…
05-21 02:51:10	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x7f337c…
05-19 14:16:23	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	No	SELL	1,494	99¢	$1,480	0x045d11…
05-18 20:21:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	1,229	100¢	$1,228	0x1ac56b…
05-18 14:52:30	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1,098	93¢	$1,021	0xcda0d6…
05-18 14:49:42	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	26	93¢	$24	0x1a9484…
05-18 14:46:36	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x244574…
05-18 14:35:33	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0x1ca4ee…
05-18 14:27:34	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	71	93¢	$66	0x66cf65…
05-18 13:47:22	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x62a5f6…
05-18 13:46:14	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x078c55…
05-18 13:43:29	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x3068de…
05-18 13:41:30	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x36c5f5…
05-18 13:41:11	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x23ff75…
05-18 13:28:32	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	71	93¢	$66	0x432d8b…
05-14 22:20:00	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1,007	99¢	$999	0x5e8c85…
05-13 19:20:45	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0xc92432…
05-13 19:04:51	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0x24c2d0…
05-13 18:28:45	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x6b85d2…
05-13 16:36:08	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xca32cf…
05-13 16:01:13	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	286	93¢	$266	0x5986c8…
05-13 15:03:56	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x376a93…
05-13 14:22:35	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	152	93¢	$141	0x10706f…
05-12 09:46:02	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	34	89¢	$30	0xf2ec13…
05-12 09:46:02	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	530	89¢	$470	0x4e56e4…
05-12 09:45:51	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	388	89¢	$344	0x90b557…
05-12 09:45:06	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	55	89¢	$49	0x2da4ae…
05-11 18:03:36	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1,599	94¢	$1,503	0xaa876e…
05-11 15:38:07	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	356	94¢	$336	0x6a3092…
05-11 13:42:51	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	853	95¢	$806	0xa72f8a…
05-08 13:54:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	4	90¢	$4	0xa18c84…
05-08 13:47:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x531e7e…
05-08 13:41:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	150	90¢	$135	0x9fa2b8…
05-08 13:29:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	135	90¢	$122	0x19e049…
05-08 13:26:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	31	90¢	$28	0x20bc08…
05-08 13:23:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xe47984…
05-08 13:22:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	15	90¢	$14	0x6911e1…
05-08 13:21:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xe103a1…
05-08 13:14:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	55	90¢	$50	0x08d4f0…
05-08 12:52:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x522a41…
05-08 12:52:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	59	90¢	$53	0xcc4fae…
05-08 12:44:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0x425e4b…
05-08 12:39:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x38f7ee…
05-08 12:28:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x3ec337…
05-08 12:27:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	27	90¢	$24	0x4b2de6…
05-06 14:54:00	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1,200	90¢	$1,080	0xd6d10e…
05-06 09:34:40	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	142	39¢	$56	0xe402f0…
05-06 09:14:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	1,100	93¢	$1,025	0xafa200…
05-06 09:13:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	129	93¢	$120	0xb02085…
05-06 09:04:12	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1,899	92¢	$1,747	0xf7359e…
05-04 16:58:04	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	2,499	91¢	$2,274	0xf60281…
05-03 00:09:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	2,249	92¢	$2,069	0x2c5e97…
05-01 21:14:28	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	2,290	92¢	$2,107	0xc82f5c…
04-30 09:40:50	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	10,655	100¢	$10,633	0xfcf7a6…
04-30 09:39:58	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	844	100¢	$843	0x4e42e8…
04-30 05:35:16	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1,009	91¢	$918	0xd8efc3…
04-30 01:54:36	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	501	92¢	$461	0x74cddd…
04-29 09:10:48	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	189	92¢	$174	0x636ac8…
04-29 08:43:40	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1,800	92¢	$1,656	0xf726b2…
04-29 08:27:26	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	139	92¢	$127	0xf7730c…
04-29 08:26:56	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$0	0xcc221d…
04-29 08:10:10	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	970	92¢	$893	0xfaa29a…
04-28 23:19:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	1,229	89¢	$1,094	0x83cbbc…
04-28 20:33:56	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	No	BUY	892	92¢	$820	0xb39ca8…
04-28 20:33:34	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	No	BUY	125	92¢	$115	0x19c53e…
04-28 20:13:34	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	No	BUY	18	92¢	$16	0x29cab7…
04-28 20:09:16	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	No	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x5f3eb8…
04-28 20:08:18	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	No	BUY	62	92¢	$58	0xd6043d…
04-28 20:06:48	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0x820ae6…
04-28 20:06:46	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	No	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0xedca55…
04-28 19:59:16	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	No	BUY	332	92¢	$306	0x6a7705…
04-28 19:28:28	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	No	BUY	13,555	93¢	$12,606	0xb6f0fc…
04-28 19:25:40	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	13,854	99¢	$13,757	0xbfcd7a…
04-27 18:11:26	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	931	88¢	$819	0x57b8ef…
04-27 18:08:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	2,428	88¢	$2,137	0x98713b…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	86	$1.18M	19,266	06-10 05:02
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	84	$188.1K	1,572	06-08 23:32
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	82	$28.3M	39,073	06-10 04:41
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	78	$288.8K	23,022	06-01 03:26
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	71	$41.0K	3,599	06-03 11:34
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	69	$137.6K	12,530	03-28 14:26
Fragrant-Dandelion 0x1408…b4f8	65	$39.9K	8,355	05-06 10:40
Vacant-Challenge 0x3078…0389	64	$158.2K	22,595	06-09 17:26