Impolite-Mode — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$5.39K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.38K

Hit rate

91.4%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

666 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$16.7K

$169.4K lifetime

Avg / trade

$254

Open exposure

$5.06K

12 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 11-06 17:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 96 days

Categories

Politics

52% 85% +$15,995

Other

27% 84% +$13,058

Tech

18% 100% +$3,491

Pop-Culture

2% 100% +$417

Crypto

1% 100% +$239

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	+2,685	$600	99¢	$2.7K	+$2,059	11-06 18:51
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+4,004	$636	27¢	$1.1K	+$455	10-24 01:08
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+600	$311	55¢	$329	+$18	10-18 19:20
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+1,066	$835	30¢	$325	-$510	10-03 13:21
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	-285	-$200	80¢	$-228	-$28	11-05 14:05
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	+300	$149	52¢	$154	+$5	11-06 17:45
next white house press secretary announced by november 30 2026	Yes	+177	$103	38¢	$68	-$35	10-16 22:51
Will Trump rename an ocean in 2026?	Yes	+2,192	$60	3¢	$61	+$1	10-11 16:07
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+500	$80	11¢	$53	-$27	05-26 17:15
Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+166	$42	30¢	$49	+$7	10-28 17:06
will ukraine re enter myrnohrad by december 31	Yes	+2,173	$600	2¢	$45	-$555	07-08 14:35
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+0	$15	66¢	$0	-$15	11-03 01:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	10	$7.9K	4,608	4,608	+0	Yes	+$1,266	06-12 11:16
trump announces new drug boat strike by march 14 2026	2	$7.1K	4,040	4,040	+0	Yes	+$889	03-09 00:21
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	3	$6.7K	3,699	3,699	+0	Yes	+$492	09-26 01:37
trump announces new drug boat strike by january 31 2026	2	$5.0K	2,712	2,712	+0	Yes	+$385	01-23 22:19
us bank failure by july 31 20260630183502534	1	$4.2K	7,785	0	+7,785	Yes	+$3,583	07-10 20:14
trump declassifies new ufo files by august 15 20260710184334566	2	$3.9K	2,267	2,267	+0	Yes	+$542	08-07 11:22
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	6	$3.4K	2,205	2,205	+0	Yes	+$884	07-13 14:29
will mojtaba khamenei tweet again on march 19	1	$3.3K	3,788	0	+3,788	Yes	+$537	03-19 18:38
will the next claude opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20261231	5	$3.2K	1,775	1,775	+0	No	+$196	09-26 01:38
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	2	$3.1K	1,822	1,822	+0	No	+$310	05-23 20:36
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	88	$3.0K	15,899	14,990	+909	No	+$35	06-13 22:17
will the us announce a blockade on iran by august 31	2	$3.0K	2,081	2,081	+0	Yes	+$976	07-13 14:17
trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	15	$2.9K	2,055	1,531	+525	Yes	+$631	04-08 00:14
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	3	$2.7K	1,666	1,666	+0	Yes	+$610	06-14 21:44
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	3	$2.6K	1,724	1,724	+0	Yes	+$772	10-28 17:14
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?	3	$2.5K	4,079	982	+3,097	SPD	-$1,555	09-06 18:12
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	2	$2.5K	1,781	1,781	+0	Yes	+$960	04-19 12:11
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 14, 2026?	10	$2.4K	1,651	1,591	+60	Yes	+$700	06-13 17:28
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	3	$2.4K	1,522	1,522	+0	Yes	+$576	10-28 17:23
will a chinese company have one of the top 5 ai models by december 31	2	$2.4K	5,000	0	+5,000	Yes	+$2,626	08-03 02:20
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	2	$2.3K	1,591	1,591	+0	open	—	11-06 18:52
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	2	$2.1K	1,166	1,166	+0	Yes	+$181	06-11 01:02
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	1	$2.1K	2,631	0	+2,631	Yes	+$575	06-10 23:50
will the next claude opus model debut with a humanitys last exam score of 55 or higher 20260723184439897	6	$2.0K	1,097	1,097	+0	No	+$113	08-07 05:32
will trumps approval rating be between 41pt5 and 41pt9 on february 6 2026	8	$2.0K	1,667	1,310	+357	Yes	+$546	02-07 02:06
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	2	$2.0K	2,131	1,066	+1,066	open	—	10-03 13:21
will kanye tweet again by march 31	2	$2.0K	2,196	0	+2,196	Yes	+$237	03-25 22:42
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	2	$1.9K	1,084	1,084	+0	No	+$154	07-10 23:15
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	4	$1.9K	1,051	1,051	+0	Yes	+$147	10-13 22:46
will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 12 2026	8	$1.8K	1,402	1,402	+0	Yes	+$150	06-13 01:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 18:52:03	Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,591	99¢	$1,575	0x8a8acb…
11-06 18:51:39	Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,685	22¢	$600	0x72ab72…
11-06 18:51:37	Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,591	44¢	$700	0x1c857e…
11-06 17:45:16	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	300	50¢	$149	0x7f2c46…
11-05 14:05:19	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	285	70¢	$200	0x7f5a6a…
11-04 18:39:07	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by December 31?	No	BUY	281	74¢	$208	0xf0def1…
11-04 04:16:34	Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?	No	BUY	123	97¢	$119	0x7d29c0…
11-04 04:16:34	Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?	No	BUY	251	96¢	$241	0x401560…
11-03 01:05:09	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	460	43¢	$199	0xed1f31…
10-28 17:39:34	Will any other model be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	91¢	$46	0xdff16c…
10-28 17:27:43	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	No	SELL	84	91¢	$77	0x97baba…
10-28 17:23:16	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	Yes	SELL	245	97¢	$238	0x36302a…
10-28 17:15:34	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	No	SELL	43	91¢	$39	0x4a613a…
10-28 17:14:29	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x60f094…
10-28 17:11:29	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,277	97¢	$1,238	0xd73d5e…
10-28 17:11:08	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,719	97¢	$1,667	0x73cb2e…
10-28 17:08:22	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0xfb14b5…
10-28 17:07:23	Will Google be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	96¢	$23	0xf02f8e…
10-28 17:06:31	Will Google be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	368	45¢	$164	0x976a37…
10-28 17:06:23	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,522	59¢	$900	0xe1bdaa…
10-28 17:06:23	Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	23¢	$34	0xc06467…
10-28 17:06:23	Will any other model be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	71¢	$36	0x808124…
10-28 17:06:23	Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	25¢	$42	0x7f482f…
10-28 17:06:23	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,724	52¢	$900	0x5eab14…
10-28 17:06:22	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	132	66¢	$88	0xcf6470…
10-24 01:08:59	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	4,004	16¢	$636	0xdb1e9b…
10-20 19:54:47	Will Meta be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	188	52¢	$97	0xbebc44…
10-20 19:54:47	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	206	53¢	$110	0x62e8fd…
10-20 19:54:47	Will Meta be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	418	14¢	$59	0x5d9014…
10-19 16:49:26	Will Google be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	101	95¢	$96	0xce13d1…
10-19 15:39:09	Will Google be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	19	95¢	$18	0xfa1f42…
10-19 15:38:45	Will Google be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	120	56¢	$67	0x00a6e3…
10-19 15:38:44	Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	61¢	$37	0x852350…
10-19 12:37:57	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	460	47¢	$215	0x509dbc…
10-18 19:20:12	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	600	52¢	$311	0x41dea4…
10-18 14:46:21	Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?	No	SELL	111	97¢	$108	0x9ad82a…
10-18 14:46:14	Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?	No	SELL	128	97¢	$124	0x0b1342…
10-18 14:45:45	Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?	No	BUY	2,959	36¢	$1,056	0x63f439…
10-18 14:45:45	Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?	Yes	BUY	1,724	32¢	$544	0x5e1d30…
10-16 22:51:12	next white house press secretary announced by november 30 2026	Yes	BUY	177	58¢	$103	0x40a119…
10-16 02:59:04	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	No	SELL	1,099	91¢	$1,000	0x6a3b7c…
10-16 02:58:51	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	2,861	10¢	$275	0x939330…
10-16 02:58:51	Will any other model be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,215	29¢	$940	0x3abb54…
10-14 07:06:22	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	No	SELL	107	97¢	$104	0x445347…
10-14 05:16:14	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0x751a27…
10-14 04:58:11	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	No	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0xeb0eb1…
10-14 04:56:55	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	SELL	89	97¢	$86	0x150c94…
10-14 04:30:01	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	No	BUY	161	87¢	$140	0xcea638…
10-14 04:30:01	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	89	88¢	$78	0x4594d3…
10-13 22:58:07	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	484	97¢	$469	0x86e009…
10-13 22:47:51	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Yes	SELL	50	97¢	$49	0x196439…
10-13 22:47:39	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	SELL	326	97¢	$317	0x99e481…
10-13 22:47:36	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Yes	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x2a5f9f…
10-13 22:47:33	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Yes	SELL	164	97¢	$160	0x5450b7…
10-13 22:46:55	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	SELL	890	97¢	$863	0xa40d77…
10-13 22:46:39	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xcf4662…
10-13 22:45:24	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0xd7df55…
10-13 22:43:58	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	SELL	151	97¢	$147	0x9552f7…
10-13 22:34:43	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Yes	BUY	225	82¢	$185	0x2a3980…
10-13 22:34:43	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	BUY	326	85¢	$278	0x1a9447…
10-13 22:34:42	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	488	84¢	$410	0xdba873…
10-13 22:34:42	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	1,051	83¢	$872	0x5a0476…
10-13 18:40:30	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	20¢	$17	0x381d0f…
10-11 16:07:46	Will Trump rename an ocean in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,192	3¢	$60	0x84e79e…
10-08 03:13:25	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hasan Piker by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	75¢	$26	0x7f5037…
10-03 13:21:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,066	53¢	$565	0xed67e7…
09-30 20:06:17	Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	446	62¢	$279	0x64b329…
09-30 19:48:08	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	77¢	$35	0x162010…
09-29 11:35:51	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	95¢	$12	0xd5b667…
09-29 06:57:53	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0x9ec3d1…
09-29 06:42:44	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	95¢	$29	0x2b5f7e…
09-29 06:41:24	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0x8d5d07…
09-29 06:41:24	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	53¢	$21	0x6fa7a7…
09-26 20:24:23	Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	512	55¢	$282	0x8d278d…
09-26 01:52:54	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	123	96¢	$118	0x67114c…
09-26 01:38:54	will the next claude opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20261231	No	SELL	21	97¢	$20	0xe56af9…
09-26 01:38:53	will the next claude opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20261231	No	SELL	1,680	97¢	$1,630	0xfc033e…
09-26 01:38:53	will the next claude opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20261231	No	SELL	38	97¢	$37	0xa3c8e9…
09-26 01:38:53	will the next claude opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20261231	No	SELL	36	97¢	$35	0x9157cb…
09-26 01:37:09	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,611	97¢	$3,503	0x0896eb…
09-26 01:36:29	Will any other model be the best AI model on September 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	91¢	$68	0x53f93f…
09-26 01:35:06	Will the next GPT Luna model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x939d6e…
09-26 01:34:57	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x625e3e…
09-26 01:34:45	Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x3b7ebd…
09-26 01:34:41	Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xade095…
09-26 01:34:38	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x139c69…
09-26 01:34:33	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	255	97¢	$247	0x8b0ca3…
09-26 01:34:33	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	245	97¢	$238	0x709751…
09-26 01:33:41	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	90	97¢	$87	0xcef412…
09-26 01:33:27	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	83	97¢	$81	0x87b254…
09-26 01:33:03	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	88	97¢	$86	0x0d97d3…
09-26 01:32:42	Will the next GPT Luna model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xd41198…
09-26 01:32:41	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xe61d96…
09-26 01:32:39	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	756	87¢	$656	0xe32f89…
09-26 01:32:39	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	123	62¢	$76	0x84efca…
09-26 01:32:39	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,410	74¢	$1,040	0x20aca2…
09-26 01:32:38	Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	427	82¢	$350	0xfa67e4…
09-26 01:32:38	will the next claude opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20261231	No	BUY	1,775	86¢	$1,525	0xf2b478…
09-26 01:32:38	Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	151	79¢	$119	0xdfff90…
09-26 01:32:38	will the next gpt sol model 5pt7 debut at a score of at least 1470 by june 30 2027	No	BUY	320	82¢	$262	0xca270d…