Realized P&L
-$1.61K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.61K
Hit rate
6.6%
Resolved
105
Trades
1,048
lifetime
Volume
$127.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$122
Open exposure
$21.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-12
last 11-06 00:26
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 43 days
Categories
Other
59% 27% -$938
Politics
23% 0% -$281
Tech
14% 12% -$445
Crypto
3% 20% +$72
Sports
1% 0% -$15
Pop-Culture
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
69 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? No +1,557 $1,191 94¢ $1.5K +$280 10-01 18:52
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? No +1,673 $1,280 76¢ $1.3K $0 11-02 18:22
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? No +1,725 $1,292 73¢ $1.3K -$33 10-31 22:47
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? No +1,377 $1,016 88¢ $1.2K +$202 10-10 11:19
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +1,958 $974 60¢ $1.2K +$211 11-01 21:56
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31? No +1,114 $903 90¢ $997 +$95 11-03 10:22
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +1,126 $891 86¢ $963 +$71 10-26 11:27
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +862 $639 91¢ $786 +$147 10-08 08:34
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +1,958 $1,004 40¢ $774 -$230 11-01 21:56
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +779 $580 97¢ $755 +$175 09-15 03:58
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? No +921 $711 80¢ $732 +$21 10-29 17:16
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +1,202 $446 57¢ $689 +$243 09-12 09:46
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? Yes +993 $606 68¢ $680 +$74 11-05 01:55
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +911 $403 68¢ $624 +$221 10-29 23:33
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027? No +629 $519 96¢ $607 +$88 10-04 15:21
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +944 $532 62¢ $590 +$58 10-27 23:50
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 31, 2027? Yes +661 $430 80¢ $526 +$96 10-30 09:04
Israeli airspace closed by November 30, 2026? No +632 $531 82¢ $521 -$9 11-05 18:47
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +789 $584 66¢ $517 -$67 10-24 02:12
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,202 $781 43¢ $513 -$268 09-12 09:46
Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026? Yes +516 $470 99¢ $512 +$42 11-01 10:52
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026? Yes +947 $409 54¢ $507 +$98 10-26 16:22
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No +635 $530 79¢ $503 -$28 11-05 01:59
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? No +632 $480 78¢ $496 +$16 11-04 01:27
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes +605 $487 78¢ $472 -$16 10-30 10:50
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? Yes +1,725 $521 27¢ $466 -$55 10-31 22:46
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +474 $336 95¢ $450 +$113 10-27 00:23
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +785 $518 56¢ $444 -$74 10-28 17:28
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026? No +947 $545 46¢ $441 -$104 10-26 16:22
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No +639 $159 64¢ $406 +$246 11-04 19:50