Shy-Carnation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

80.2%

Resolved

344

Trades

674

lifetime

Volume

$8.19K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-17

last 10-10 16:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 69 days

Categories

Other

76% 84% -$19

Crypto

14% 79% +$0

Politics

8% 85% +$0

Sports

2% 50% $0

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Villarreal win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No		+8	$8	100¢	$8	+$0	10-10 16:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Alfonso López Chau and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff?	5	$119	59	59	+0	No	+$0	04-12 23:18
Will Lamont Lavender be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?	7	$82	41	41	+0	No	+$0	05-18 20:00
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	4	$69	35	35	+0	No	$0	04-30 12:51
highest temperature in milan on april 18 2026 18corbelow	4	$65	45	20	+25	No	+$0	04-18 02:12
will voter turnout be 65 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	2	$64	32	32	+0	No	+$0	04-12 20:30
highest temperature in nyc on april 2 2026 68 69f	1	$63	63	0	+63	No	+$0	04-02 03:02
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on May 7?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	$0	05-06 11:52
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-17 16:50
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 4.5m?	3	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-17 17:00
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on May 17?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-17 06:12
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 15?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	$0	05-15 14:51
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on May 17?	7	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-16 21:20
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 7?	2	$55	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-07 10:37
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 41°F or below on May 5?	2	$55	28	26	+2	No	+$0	05-04 22:51
Will France win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	4	$53	27	27	+0	No	+$0	05-15 10:13
Will VOX (VOX) win the Andalusia regional election?	5	$53	26	26	+0	No	+$0	05-16 11:00
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 11?	2	$52	26	26	+0	No	+$0	05-10 21:58
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 6?	5	$52	26	26	+0	No	$0	05-05 17:47
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 86°F or higher on May 7?	2	$51	25	25	+0	No	$0	05-06 21:37
will the price of solana be between 90 100 on march 29	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	03-29 07:05
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on May 15?	3	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-14 16:53
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 88°F or higher on April 29?	4	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	04-29 08:05
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$0	04-30 16:54
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 25?	2	$49	24	24	+0	No	$0	04-25 05:55
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 6?	2	$49	24	24	+0	No	+$0	05-05 19:56
will gerb sds win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by any margin	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	+$0	04-20 11:52
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 14?	5	$48	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	05-14 02:08
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 29?	2	$47	24	24	+0	No	+$0	04-29 15:03
Will BNB reach $700 in April?	2	$47	24	24	+0	No	+$0	05-01 00:46
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 5?	4	$46	23	23	+0	No	+$0	05-04 08:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-10 16:18:01	Will Villarreal win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0da01e…
09-29 11:47:30	Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xfef17d…
09-29 11:46:39	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x0b83d5…
09-22 03:59:39	Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa58b62…
09-11 20:01:39	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x513414…
09-03 07:47:58	Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x247f94…
09-03 07:46:43	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x2a38f2…
08-28 07:03:48	Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0xced451…
08-13 20:03:28	Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xbecb27…
08-10 22:24:30	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x7ea924…
07-22 21:36:39	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x201972…
07-15 15:42:40	Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x40c6e7…
07-15 15:41:44	Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x11243e…
07-08 18:05:11	Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xdb8d2e…
07-05 13:04:22	Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xec9cca…
07-05 13:03:26	Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x9eab2f…
07-05 13:02:34	Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x311bc3…
07-05 13:01:38	Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xeecd1c…
07-02 23:39:34	Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe3ee95…
06-30 20:30:47	Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xa3c9dd…
06-26 03:07:53	Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x92060e…
06-22 17:36:37	Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$4	0x90955a…
06-18 01:59:37	Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xfd537e…
05-23 01:53:39	Will Brent Barker be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x606e6b…
05-20 15:10:47	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 21?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x790b37…
05-20 11:29:35	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xc53da1…
05-20 09:09:39	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x782123…
05-20 02:14:54	Will Heavenly Kimes be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xc7d21c…
05-20 02:13:28	Will Joe Lester be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xf8d5b8…
05-20 00:17:56	Will Gregg Kirkpatrick win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xa53532…
05-19 21:22:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xf993bf…
05-19 16:26:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xd4e623…
05-19 15:31:01	Will Ground Zero Gaming qualify for EWC 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xb67596…
05-19 15:27:48	Will Ground Zero Gaming qualify for EWC 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x39af60…
05-19 15:12:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 19?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x3dc397…
05-19 12:04:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 19?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xf6900b…
05-19 09:21:49	Will Ground Zero Gaming qualify for EWC 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa91654…
05-19 01:59:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 18?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x0d3965…
05-19 01:01:04	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 18?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x333695…
05-18 22:50:45	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x2d94fc…
05-18 22:29:29	Will Gregg Kirkpatrick win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x072b5a…
05-18 20:31:23	Will Brent Barker be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x90433d…
05-18 20:00:16	Will Lamont Lavender be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x26367e…
05-18 19:56:44	Will Lamont Lavender be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x0652d5…
05-18 19:31:51	Will Lamont Lavender be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x4ac355…
05-18 19:21:44	Will Lamont Lavender be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xe26fd8…
05-18 19:08:59	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1f88da…
05-18 18:44:21	Will Lamont Lavender be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x8435e6…
05-18 07:42:10	Will Joe Lester be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe4bb0e…
05-18 05:41:27	Will Heavenly Kimes be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x1d7b19…
05-18 01:13:58	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 58-59°F on May 19?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x59eba7…
05-17 22:56:39	Will Lamont Lavender be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x3de99b…
05-17 21:18:41	Will Lamont Lavender be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x2ba24a…
05-17 17:12:06	Will "Is God Is" score at least 99 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xa528b1…
05-17 17:05:10	Will "Is God Is" score at least 99 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x796876…
05-17 17:02:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 11-17?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x9c733d…
05-17 17:00:09	Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 4.5m?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x4e0ebd…
05-17 16:55:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x856085…
05-17 16:50:57	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x3ea3bf…
05-17 15:28:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x111b3d…
05-17 13:09:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x5d7f85…
05-17 12:29:11	Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 4.5m?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x0eea45…
05-17 10:28:52	Will "Is God Is" score at least 99 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xc69a30…
05-17 10:01:40	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 17?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x3011ea…
05-17 09:30:38	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xf0407f…
05-17 07:21:11	Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 4.5m?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x0e83b2…
05-17 06:12:47	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on May 17?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xae3111…
05-17 06:06:14	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on May 17?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x95d666…
05-17 04:45:49	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 17?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xeda1f0…
05-17 03:13:06	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on May 17?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x13355a…
05-16 22:24:01	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or below on May 17?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x6cfc9c…
05-16 22:24:00	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or below on May 17?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x76b787…
05-16 22:24:00	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or below on May 17?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x66a03c…
05-16 21:20:26	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on May 17?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb14469…
05-16 21:20:26	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on May 17?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x886ce6…
05-16 21:20:26	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on May 17?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x8496bf…
05-16 21:20:26	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on May 17?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x09eb99…
05-16 21:16:37	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on May 17?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x904fbc…
05-16 21:09:53	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on May 17?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x594c4f…
05-16 20:52:42	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on May 17?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa89dc7…
05-16 17:14:15	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or below on May 17?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x5b0944…
05-16 14:37:58	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on May 17?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xaaac68…
05-16 11:00:23	Will VOX (VOX) win the Andalusia regional election?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x4f48a2…
05-16 10:47:58	Will VOX (VOX) win the Andalusia regional election?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xb1ba49…
05-16 10:42:16	Will VOX (VOX) win the Andalusia regional election?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x7b04d7…
05-16 10:31:36	Will VOX (VOX) win the Andalusia regional election?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x6309cc…
05-16 04:36:09	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on May 16?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x29473e…
05-16 04:26:01	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 16?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xc9b30c…
05-15 23:27:46	Will VOX (VOX) win the Andalusia regional election?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x8ff283…
05-15 22:04:54	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C or higher on May 16?	Yes	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x208510…
05-15 21:47:59	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 16?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x435033…
05-15 21:01:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 11 2026?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x434a0e…
05-15 19:52:24	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C or higher on May 16?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x455fcb…
05-15 18:23:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x2070c0…
05-15 18:03:01	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on May 16?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xaa7c20…
05-15 14:51:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 15?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xd7e043…
05-15 14:20:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x360f6d…
05-15 10:13:39	Will France win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$15	0xff4148…
05-15 10:05:53	Will France win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xe3fc64…
05-15 09:56:17	Will France win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x3c2325…