Realized P&L
-$322
Unrealized P&L
-$319
Hit rate
85.2%
Resolved
2,237
Trades
12,386
lifetime
Volume
$502.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$41
Open exposure
$16.1K
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-22
last 10-27 08:53
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 67 days
Categories
Other
59% 64% +$2,219
Crypto
32% 69% +$1,947
Politics
4% 48% -$4,730
Sports
4% 94% +$104
Tech
1% 71% +$138
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
67 active days in 12wk • peak 762 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 27? No +7,237 $7,200 100¢ $7.2K +$11 10-27 09:09
Will Anyone's Legend win Worlds 2026? No +6,116 $6,110 100¢ $6.1K -$12 10-27 04:31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in October? No +957 $950 100¢ $956 +$6 10-16 16:55
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +373 $236 66¢ $245 +$10 10-17 06:34
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) No +200 $192 95¢ $190 -$2 10-26 08:50
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +221 $170 81¢ $180 +$10 10-26 16:00
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? Yes +365 $118 34¢ $123 +$5 10-17 06:35
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +150 $112 77¢ $116 +$3 10-27 01:25
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes +107 $43 98¢ $105 +$62 09-27 05:26
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? Yes +115 $100 86¢ $98 -$2 10-20 06:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October? No +81 $77 98¢ $80 +$2 10-24 10:08
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +197 $16 36¢ $70 +$54 09-05 09:41
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +121 $78 54¢ $65 -$14 10-25 20:23
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? Yes +120 $66 48¢ $58 -$8 10-25 08:16
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes +387 $121 14¢ $54 -$67 10-22 20:25
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +100 $46 48¢ $48 +$2 10-27 08:53
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? Yes +284 $40 16¢ $44 +$4 10-12 23:36
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes +366 $88 12¢ $42 -$46 10-16 07:43
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No +41 $37 97¢ $39 +$2 09-19 05:17
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +414 $99 9¢ $38 -$61 10-10 21:17
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +50 $29 64¢ $32 +$3 10-23 21:09
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? Yes +30 $14 100¢ $30 +$16 10-24 03:17
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +227 $74 13¢ $29 -$45 10-26 18:31
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? Yes +222 $108 13¢ $29 -$79 08-24 00:31
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? Yes +96 $15 28¢ $27 +$12 10-25 21:02
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? No +50 $20 52¢ $26 +$5 10-26 17:09
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? Yes +616 $217 4¢ $24 -$193 08-25 15:07
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No +27 $21 84¢ $23 +$1 10-26 10:30
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? No +70 $24 30¢ $21 -$3 10-25 19:56
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +26 $19 80¢ $21 +$2 09-10 02:53