Flashy-Constellation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.28K

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

60.7%

Resolved

13,566

Trades

49,742

lifetime

Volume

$169.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-06

last 11-01 15:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 207 days

Categories

Crypto

69% 77% -$638

Other

20% 11% -$2,491

Politics

6% 17% -$399

Sports

3% 8% -$495

Tech

2% 14% -$257

Pop-Culture

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 174 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?	Yes	+1	$0	50¢	$0	+$0	05-30 17:12
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	+0	$1	74¢	$0	-$1	07-16 14:37
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	+0	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	07-18 10:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	15	$320	687	687	+0	No	-$3	06-05 07:12
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	14	$311	560	560	+0	No	-$8	06-14 16:22
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?	13	$294	337	337	+0	No	-$9	06-01 15:40
will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	6	$258	165	165	+0	Yes	-$5	06-09 12:47
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	14	$240	350	350	+0	Yes	-$7	06-14 16:44
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	4	$230	286	286	+0	open	—	07-08 00:00
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 24?	4	$224	300	300	+0	No	-$10	07-23 10:00
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	11	$219	470	470	+0	No	+$0	06-07 23:54
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?	2	$193	75	150	-75	Yes	-$18	05-31 12:32
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	11	$189	527	527	+0	Yes	-$10	07-08 22:13
will yeet launch a token by december 31 2026	4	$188	135	135	+0	open	—	06-10 02:29
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	16	$188	480	480	+0	No	-$15	07-04 14:59
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	3	$184	110	110	+0	No	-$1	06-05 10:59
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	16	$182	341	341	+0	Yes	+$1	06-08 08:57
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	9	$170	360	360	+0	No	-$10	06-06 09:16
will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	9	$161	212	212	+0	Yes	-$2	07-21 16:49
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	4	$160	220	220	+0	open	—	07-07 17:59
israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	8	$160	370	370	+0	No	-$5	06-17 07:22
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	6	$158	150	150	+0	Yes	-$2	06-18 02:36
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	12	$148	357	357	+0	No	-$3	06-11 23:54
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	8	$145	300	300	+0	No	-$3	06-25 00:47
will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	4	$143	180	180	+0	No	-$4	07-15 11:52
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	10	$142	307	307	+0	Yes	+$0	06-01 14:49
will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	6	$141	242	242	+0	No	-$4	07-14 16:53
tread fdv above 300m one day after launch	14	$141	321	321	+0	No	+$2	06-09 12:28
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	11	$140	294	294	+0	Yes	-$9	07-14 16:53
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	6	$139	168	168	+0	Yes	-$8	05-28 09:30
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	9	$137	250	250	+0	No	$0	06-01 14:11
israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	5	$137	220	220	+0	Yes	-$4	07-02 10:37
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 30?	9	$136	200	200	+0	Yes	-$8	06-29 14:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 15:19:30	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0xde1afe…
11-01 15:19:07	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x4b5d98…
11-01 14:58:57	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xc44e27…
11-01 14:30:10	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on November 1?	Yes	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0xb630b8…
11-01 14:19:12	Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?	No	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x6e761d…
11-01 14:19:10	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0xf13fa1…
11-01 13:49:27	Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?	No	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xffd71a…
11-01 13:25:22	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xa99e25…
10-30 18:56:06	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0x50c40f…
10-30 16:08:30	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 1?	No	SELL	13	73¢	$10	0xfef64c…
10-30 16:08:27	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate by 50+ bps at the March meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xea2265…
10-30 16:08:27	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C on October 31?	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x314426…
10-30 16:08:27	Court finds BBC liable for defaming Trump?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x23d790…
10-30 16:08:25	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 0%-3%?	No	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0xe18734…
10-30 16:08:25	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 30?	No	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0xe03dae…
10-30 16:08:25	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate by 50+ bps at the March meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x4daced…
10-30 16:08:24	Will the ECB increase the deposit facility rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x48a3ed…
10-30 16:07:16	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate by 50+ bps at the March meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x43c2aa…
10-30 16:06:34	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate by 50+ bps at the March meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xf87a02…
10-30 15:55:52	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 0%-3%?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x8f8bf4…
10-30 15:51:54	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 30?	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x18a41a…
10-30 15:47:12	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 1?	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0xb47712…
10-30 15:46:40	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 1?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x501132…
10-30 15:29:37	Will the ECB increase the deposit facility rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x4ae0b9…
10-30 15:13:48	Court finds BBC liable for defaming Trump?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xa05787…
10-30 15:12:54	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C on October 31?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x44cefd…
10-30 15:11:52	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 1?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x899164…
10-30 14:47:19	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xfb36bc…
10-30 14:47:19	Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xe28593…
10-30 14:45:09	Will Agapito win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x0e44c1…
10-30 14:45:07	Will Rachel Rohrabacher / Christian Alshon advance to the Semifinals in Mixed Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0xe57373…
10-30 14:45:07	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x202504…
10-30 14:45:06	Will ETH/BTC reach 0.0305 October 26-November 1?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x8d643a…
10-30 14:45:06	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x8b9208…
10-30 14:45:06	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x428273…
10-30 14:16:16	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	2	33¢	$1	0x31a710…
10-30 13:31:45	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x56937b…
10-30 13:20:25	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x72a385…
10-30 13:19:55	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xace8d7…
10-30 12:11:21	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0x147bf8…
10-30 12:11:12	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xbd2646…
10-30 12:10:49	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0x5f045c…
10-30 12:10:49	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	27¢	$4	0x52d804…
10-30 12:10:24	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xb2e120…
10-30 12:05:33	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0xf94b1d…
10-30 12:05:33	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	14	78¢	$11	0x1548ea…
10-30 12:05:04	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x917cfb…
10-30 11:49:27	Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x8efaa3…
10-30 11:45:28	Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xd27a3c…
10-30 11:05:24	Will Rachel Rohrabacher / Christian Alshon advance to the Semifinals in Mixed Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xbcc43b…
10-30 11:00:37	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	18	30¢	$5	0x3e063b…
10-30 10:35:00	Will Judit Castillo advance to the Round of 16 in Women's Singles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?	No	SELL	3	8¢	$0	0x053e63…
10-30 10:34:54	Will Judit Castillo advance to the Round of 16 in Women's Singles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?	No	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x142e27…
10-30 10:02:54	Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xb862b9…
10-30 09:34:36	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	7	5¢	$0	0xc1d9d3…
10-30 09:34:30	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	12	4¢	$0	0x55a726…
10-30 09:34:28	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0xc4a52c…
10-30 09:34:28	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x63851f…
10-30 09:27:28	Will Agapito win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x8d4b23…
10-30 09:13:46	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x717d0f…
10-30 08:33:24	will the bank of brazil decrease the target for the selic rate by 25 bps at the march 2027 meeting	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xeaca96…
10-30 08:20:27	Will ETH/BTC reach 0.0305 October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xd7b451…
10-30 08:09:24	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x5a4315…
10-30 08:08:58	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x2f7c3f…
10-30 07:54:42	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 30?	No	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x222c01…
10-30 07:52:48	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 30?	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x32fb6a…
10-30 06:51:10	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?	Yes	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x34a8da…
10-30 06:30:54	Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x0f6686…
10-30 06:30:45	JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?	No	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x2bc3f3…
10-30 06:30:39	JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x7d5195…
10-30 06:30:33	Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x2429f6…
10-30 05:58:46	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on October 31?	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x5ef2b5…
10-30 05:58:27	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on October 31?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xc1de43…
10-30 05:38:09	Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	23¢	$3	0x6aa24e…
10-30 05:16:39	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xc80e37…
10-30 04:53:28	Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?	Yes	SELL	15	38¢	$6	0x7f90c8…
10-30 04:48:36	Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x2cbd50…
10-30 04:47:18	Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xbef0cf…
10-30 04:39:00	Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x5848b0…
10-30 04:38:36	Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0x872b8d…
10-30 04:38:30	Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xa1cb01…
10-30 04:33:24	Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x658ae0…
10-30 04:33:18	Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x07d57b…
10-30 04:27:31	Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by June 30, 2028?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xca98ec…
10-30 04:27:24	Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by June 30, 2028?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xac4d52…
10-30 04:23:06	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on October 30?	Yes	SELL	13	37¢	$5	0x75c1b3…
10-30 04:16:27	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	13	41¢	$5	0x5440e9…
10-30 04:16:24	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x84c07d…
10-30 04:12:45	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xf1b7b4…
10-30 04:11:03	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 31?	No	SELL	2	32¢	$1	0x6e4521…
10-30 04:11:03	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 31?	No	SELL	16	32¢	$5	0x616212…
10-30 03:58:01	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x67c069…
10-30 03:37:18	Will the Republican Party win the SC-07 House seat?	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xd51313…
10-30 03:36:54	Will the Republican Party win the SC-07 House seat?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xa4d1f7…
10-30 03:21:34	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 31?	No	SELL	2	32¢	$1	0xe35951…
10-30 03:21:30	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 31?	No	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x90348d…
10-30 02:25:16	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x6e8cb0…
10-30 02:25:15	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x88354f…
10-30 00:11:15	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x12a5fc…
10-30 00:05:37	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x71ab8b…