Flat-Mailing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$22

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

56.4%

Resolved

Trades

1,036

lifetime

Volume

$16.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-02

last 07-29 21:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

72% — —

Politics

19% 0% $-5

Tech

7% — —

Crypto

3% 73% $-17

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 113 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	66	$3.6K	2,206	2,006	+200	open	—	06-30 01:28
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	24	$1.8K	970	870	+100	open	—	07-28 07:32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	93	$1.3K	1,571	1,372	+198	open	—	07-14 17:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	19	$1.2K	1,060	360	+700	open	—	07-19 05:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	57	$924	425	540	-115	open	—	05-29 20:40
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	22	$749	461	310	+150	open	—	06-17 17:03
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	33	$658	420	430	-10	open	—	06-26 00:45
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	105	$658	1,770	1,550	+220	open	—	07-06 17:46
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	12	$603	309	319	-10	open	—	07-29 21:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	21	$585	400	420	-20	open	—	06-11 21:31
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	55	$503	860	290	+570	open	—	07-10 22:05
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	8	$296	150	150	+0	open	—	06-28 15:11
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 26	6	$276	140	140	+0	open	—	06-25 02:18
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	17	$271	166	150	+16	open	—	05-23 18:56
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	52	$265	820	120	+700	open	—	07-04 13:53
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	6	$248	190	90	+100	open	—	07-20 14:15
kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	12	$237	120	120	+0	open	—	06-18 03:39
Discord IPO before 2027?	23	$225	310	110	+200	open	—	07-17 12:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	14	$205	150	130	+20	open	—	05-31 15:20
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	12	$192	100	110	-10	open	—	07-22 10:51
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	7	$184	140	140	+0	open	—	06-25 16:31
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	138	$145	1,600	1,600	+0	open	—	07-17 18:59
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	15	$136	80	80	+0	open	—	05-23 19:48
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	11	$136	70	70	+0	open	—	06-06 07:58
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	4	$119	70	70	+0	open	—	05-19 23:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	10	$104	80	80	+0	open	—	05-23 18:49
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	6	$74	40	40	+0	open	—	05-23 22:42
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	4	$73	50	50	+0	open	—	06-25 19:41
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	7	$66	40	30	+10	open	—	05-22 23:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	2	$58	60	0	+60	open	—	05-19 04:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-29 21:07:21	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xaa2ff7…
07-28 07:32:36	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0x83e100…
07-27 18:58:52	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xd3c5c4…
07-22 10:51:33	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x24bcc3…
07-22 09:25:55	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x398ddd…
07-20 17:13:25	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	23	98¢	$22	0x9917cd…
07-20 14:15:48	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x9919c1…
07-20 10:26:36	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xcc070e…
07-20 00:32:49	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	60	90¢	$54	0x63e7df…
07-19 05:40:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x778731…
07-19 00:16:46	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x1f6f90…
07-18 22:34:13	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x6a5b06…
07-17 18:59:09	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	600	4¢	$25	0xb5a3de…
07-17 17:57:07	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	60	89¢	$53	0x5b8329…
07-17 12:56:28	Discord IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0x35e59d…
07-17 12:56:19	Discord IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	98	30¢	$29	0xc18c1f…
07-14 17:06:20	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xfec9db…
07-14 10:16:50	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x5bf992…
07-14 07:16:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0x50e2d1…
07-14 01:14:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	40¢	$6	0x34ce13…
07-13 10:58:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	18	60¢	$11	0x9e0dd8…
07-13 10:58:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	60¢	$3	0x50abac…
07-13 10:58:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	78	60¢	$46	0xd892ac…
07-12 12:08:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x722709…
07-12 12:07:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0x6ef668…
07-12 12:07:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	41¢	$16	0x764dc8…
07-10 22:05:13	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0x3c25cc…
07-10 19:47:28	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	70	20¢	$14	0xc52570…
07-10 14:31:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	8¢	$16	0xbcd09a…
07-10 14:04:44	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x037ad1…
07-10 05:47:11	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x92406f…
07-10 05:47:11	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	4¢	$6	0x82cfcb…
07-10 05:47:11	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	4¢	$2	0x0c261a…
07-10 05:47:11	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x026a8b…
07-09 18:59:43	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x8182ef…
07-09 01:14:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x655275…
07-08 22:16:04	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xfd61ea…
07-08 22:13:17	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	29	92¢	$27	0xd3935c…
07-08 13:58:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	43¢	$22	0xbb036a…
07-08 13:58:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	43¢	$13	0x256f8e…
07-08 12:04:02	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	4¢	$21	0x66fa8f…
07-08 01:28:50	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	15¢	$7	0x3ad88e…
07-06 17:46:56	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	15¢	$2	0x41c083…
07-06 17:46:01	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	15¢	$2	0xb07769…
07-06 17:45:50	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0x829ea8…
07-06 17:45:40	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	15¢	$3	0x0d0e76…
07-06 09:58:37	bitcoin above 66k on july 8 2026	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xbf5bb0…
07-06 09:58:37	bitcoin above 66k on july 8 2026	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x6c3e13…
07-06 09:42:01	bitcoin above 66k on july 8 2026	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0xf4b975…
07-06 09:36:52	bitcoin above 66k on july 8 2026	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xbe257d…
07-05 02:17:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x0da0dc…
07-04 13:53:49	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x5992a1…
07-03 14:10:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	40¢	$24	0x12517a…
07-03 13:23:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0x741866…
07-03 11:37:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	40¢	$9	0x4a7bee…
07-03 00:56:41	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0xc5afeb…
07-02 20:11:55	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x478a0f…
07-02 14:35:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x4d9034…
07-02 09:24:43	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x74081b…
07-02 02:16:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x05fcfa…
07-01 17:58:50	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x10b28e…
07-01 17:37:49	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	90	97¢	$87	0x9de96b…
07-01 15:45:05	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x6d945c…
07-01 15:02:46	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	15¢	$0	0x16801e…
07-01 13:43:32	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	4¢	$1	0xa9747b…
07-01 13:42:41	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xfb5348…
07-01 13:42:38	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0xbcd59e…
07-01 13:41:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xbc14b9…
07-01 13:40:49	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x98fa20…
07-01 13:40:02	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x1ededc…
07-01 13:39:50	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x884c75…
07-01 13:38:44	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x6873d1…
07-01 13:38:37	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x2c2650…
07-01 13:37:50	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xf53b4f…
07-01 13:36:53	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	4¢	$4	0xacc066…
07-01 13:34:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xc563ce…
07-01 13:34:28	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x6aeaa8…
07-01 13:34:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x3fccff…
07-01 13:33:53	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0x65c75d…
07-01 13:33:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x17790a…
07-01 13:32:58	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x42e6a2…
07-01 13:32:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x8d9104…
07-01 13:30:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x113426…
07-01 13:28:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x237a52…
07-01 13:28:31	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xc5a352…
07-01 13:28:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xe46fd8…
07-01 13:27:10	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xdf6e3f…
07-01 13:25:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x6818d0…
07-01 13:23:43	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0x6c9911…
07-01 13:22:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xd13fd4…
07-01 13:22:08	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x8aac68…
07-01 13:20:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x93569a…
07-01 13:20:14	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x92c118…
07-01 13:17:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x0c0011…
07-01 13:16:02	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x324ea1…
07-01 13:15:44	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	4¢	$1	0x9440ec…
07-01 13:15:38	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xf828b2…
07-01 13:15:08	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0x6dcaf7…
07-01 13:14:35	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x7952d9…
07-01 13:14:08	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x2bf6dd…