Enormous-Compromise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$72

Unrealized P&L

-$158

Hit rate

76.1%

Resolved

118

Trades

331

lifetime

Volume

$7.31K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$688

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 09-15 05:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Other

73% 48% +$10

Politics

24% 44% +$11

Sports

3% 67% +$51

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	-598	-$510	95¢	$-568	-$58	08-25 09:16
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-134	-$113	82¢	$-111	+$2	08-05 04:30
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+500	$111	2¢	$9	-$102	09-05 09:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	6	$571	490	490	+0	open	—	09-15 05:40
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	2	$510	0	598	-598	open	—	08-25 09:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	6	$505	352	352	+0	No	+$55	07-23 15:19
will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	3	$435	388	388	+0	No	+$235	03-20 15:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$305	180	180	+0	No	+$32	07-03 13:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$237	139	139	+0	No	+$39	04-26 08:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	5	$236	184	184	+0	No	+$106	05-16 09:51
will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	4	$221	447	140	+308	Yes	+$21	06-17 06:51
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	6	$201	148	148	+0	Yes	+$15	04-13 07:41
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	4	$200	130	130	+0	open	—	07-29 05:50
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$195	1,221	450	+771	No	+$73	07-17 12:00
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	2	$194	116	116	+0	No	+$24	08-20 06:30
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	3	$192	113	113	+0	Yes	+$33	01-31 16:38
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	4	$191	1,100	600	+500	open	—	09-05 09:08
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	2	$160	590	0	+590	Yes	-$160	08-13 09:18
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	2	$149	102	102	+0	No	+$29	08-07 08:21
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	2	$146	330	330	+0	Yes	+$6	05-10 10:39
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	3	$144	162	162	+0	Yes	+$34	07-30 18:30
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?	4	$138	140	73	+67	No	+$73	04-30 18:37
will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	3	$136	844	0	+844	Yes	-$136	08-19 13:09
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	5	$127	122	122	+0	No	+$67	04-21 18:52
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	4	$127	96	96	+0	open	—	06-15 13:56
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	2	$118	92	92	+0	No	+$38	06-29 18:04
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	2	$113	0	134	-134	open	—	08-05 04:30
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	4	$112	545	545	+0	open	—	08-07 08:18
will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	1	$110	133	0	+133	No	+$23	06-17 06:51
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	1	$104	110	0	+110	No	+$6	01-31 16:45
italy nordio reform referendum passes	3	$93	150	150	+0	No	-$67	03-23 14:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	1	$90	265	0	+265	Yes	-$90	05-16 10:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$80	138	0	+138	No	+$58	04-22 08:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-15 05:40:13	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	222	66¢	$147	0xb71fd4…
09-05 09:08:31	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	6¢	$30	0x8cfa46…
08-25 09:16:24	Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	323	85¢	$275	0x17433e…
08-25 09:05:01	Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	275	86¢	$235	0x8cc208…
08-23 12:21:52	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	222	49¢	$109	0x1c71de…
08-20 06:30:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	116	94¢	$109	0x920d57…
08-19 13:09:09	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893 748	No	BUY	454	1¢	$6	0x332d17…
08-13 09:18:27	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0xb1c197…
08-13 09:17:42	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	98	49¢	$48	0x53c049…
08-07 08:22:03	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	390	26¢	$100	0xcc6a5e…
08-07 08:21:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	102	87¢	$89	0x5df826…
08-07 08:18:58	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	290	7¢	$20	0x6a27fa…
08-05 05:49:12	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	No	BUY	159	44¢	$70	0x4b9c83…
08-05 04:30:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	87	84¢	$73	0x4d8cd3…
07-30 18:31:26	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1	No	BUY	231	26¢	$60	0xf2d926…
07-30 18:30:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	78	46¢	$36	0x5ae481…
07-29 05:50:57	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	No	SELL	31	78¢	$24	0xb23e01…
07-27 12:48:07	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x70240b…
07-27 06:02:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	84	63¢	$53	0x1361e0…
07-26 06:46:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	116	73¢	$85	0xb47b5f…
07-24 14:43:04	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	No	SELL	32	77¢	$25	0x828611…
07-23 18:36:39	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	No	SELL	66	77¢	$51	0x59014e…
07-23 18:36:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	162	34¢	$55	0x49b825…
07-23 15:19:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	165	99¢	$163	0xe13fb6…
07-17 12:00:58	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	234	41¢	$96	0x4d8c40…
07-12 06:28:28	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	68	81¢	$55	0x3160f9…
07-07 17:34:56	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	938	2¢	$15	0x3ae106…
07-07 17:32:13	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	216	2¢	$4	0xcd65cd…
07-04 06:47:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	102	59¢	$60	0x35f91a…
07-03 13:10:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	131	100¢	$131	0xf25d58…
07-02 14:24:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0x09efca…
07-01 15:00:02	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	14¢	$140	0x27dcfd…
06-29 18:21:08	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x1a5919…
06-29 18:04:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	71	61¢	$43	0xc5f259…
06-29 18:04:07	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	92	85¢	$78	0x4bf54c…
06-28 10:25:34	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	92	43¢	$40	0x9aa812…
06-28 09:33:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	116	63¢	$73	0x23621f…
06-24 14:35:01	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	92	12¢	$11	0x3c60c8…
06-24 14:33:31	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	164	13¢	$21	0x5a5e2a…
06-17 15:37:26	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	373	7¢	$25	0xa9ba5f…
06-17 15:37:16	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	216	12¢	$25	0x455e98…
06-17 15:36:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	49	77¢	$37	0x9f5b25…
06-17 06:51:44	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	133	83¢	$110	0x419b88…
06-17 06:51:22	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	308	13¢	$40	0x6055a4…
06-17 06:48:34	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	SELL	70	87¢	$61	0x877ffb…
06-17 06:39:31	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	SELL	70	87¢	$61	0x12f914…
06-15 13:56:07	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	66	63¢	$41	0x66d507…
06-14 10:01:45	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	545	11¢	$60	0x42c0f5…
06-14 10:00:21	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	30	69¢	$21	0x229565…
06-14 10:00:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	47	85¢	$40	0xc8e9c7…
06-14 09:42:40	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	Yes	BUY	140	43¢	$60	0x704185…
06-11 15:42:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	70	77¢	$54	0x6e31bd…
06-09 06:11:52	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	170	65¢	$110	0x53fd49…
06-01 13:48:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	180	76¢	$137	0x88572b…
05-16 10:00:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	265	34¢	$90	0x868eb5…
05-16 09:51:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	94	96¢	$90	0xca06fe…
05-13 05:10:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0xffe865…
05-12 17:31:35	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0x7ac905…
05-12 15:27:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	90	90¢	$81	0x036060…
05-12 15:26:30	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x9e8cd9…
05-10 10:41:02	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	BUY	73	68¢	$50	0xb86563…
05-10 10:39:59	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	330	23¢	$76	0x3634c1…
05-09 10:01:09	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xe46a78…
05-02 07:58:44	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	170	63¢	$107	0x110795…
04-30 18:38:42	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	330	21¢	$70	0xa5bdf1…
04-30 18:37:46	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?	No	SELL	73	99¢	$72	0xf46db7…
04-26 08:16:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	139	99¢	$138	0x545671…
04-22 08:57:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	138	58¢	$80	0x541d42…
04-21 18:52:10	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	SELL	57	81¢	$46	0xd55aee…
04-21 12:02:02	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	SELL	64	79¢	$51	0x9a9a58…
04-21 09:37:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	139	71¢	$99	0x43080a…
04-18 13:13:44	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?	No	BUY	62	48¢	$30	0x961441…
04-18 12:49:28	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?	No	BUY	30	47¢	$14	0xaec464…
04-18 12:48:18	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?	No	BUY	48	46¢	$22	0xc9dbaa…
04-17 14:57:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	83	18¢	$15	0xafbb72…
04-15 14:01:38	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x842be9…
04-15 13:59:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0x814c26…
04-15 13:52:24	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	BUY	52	17¢	$9	0x634208…
04-13 07:42:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	49	61¢	$30	0xd2e907…
04-13 07:41:49	Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	99¢	$38	0xc19c34…
04-12 10:16:13	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x2a9b78…
04-12 09:59:43	Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	77¢	$29	0x69b8d9…
04-10 06:55:07	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	131	46¢	$60	0x072041…
03-23 14:42:21	italy nordio reform referendum passes	Yes	SELL	150	9¢	$13	0xce24b1…
03-23 13:18:37	italy nordio reform referendum passes	Yes	BUY	67	45¢	$30	0x2c9a5b…
03-23 09:04:07	italy nordio reform referendum passes	Yes	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x24292d…
03-22 16:53:03	Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0xe61c4f…
03-20 15:39:53	will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	No	SELL	273	92¢	$252	0xd700bd…
03-09 11:20:05	Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	66¢	$30	0x1bd892…
03-04 17:05:53	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x91bf4d…
03-03 16:37:01	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 200 219	Yes	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xee7a46…
03-03 15:49:23	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	SELL	1	80¢	$0	0xdbd592…
03-03 15:48:55	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0x05f81a…
03-03 15:48:13	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	SELL	18	80¢	$14	0x77fb75…
03-03 06:15:49	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 200 219	Yes	BUY	17	68¢	$12	0xfbbea3…
03-03 06:15:01	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 200 219	No	SELL	30	33¢	$10	0x4b498e…
03-03 06:14:03	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0xc711d8…
03-03 06:07:17	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 200 219	No	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x147cbc…
02-28 13:04:25	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 340 359	Yes	SELL	56	2¢	$1	0x641139…
02-28 11:53:23	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 380 399	Yes	SELL	56	0¢	$0	0xf9bbfe…