Royal-Instruction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.9%

Resolved

Trades

946

lifetime

Volume

$25.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 06-12 01:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

71% 33% $-64

Other

24% 100% +$58

Crypto

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
nothing ever happens khamenei	65	$1.2K	2,407	2,407	+0	open	—	02-28 00:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$1.1K	1,350	0	+1,350	open	—	06-11 09:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	4	$1.0K	1,100	0	+1,100	open	—	06-03 07:39
iran strike on us military by february 28	29	$1.0K	1,911	2,011	-100	open	—	02-28 08:06
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	14	$976	3,502	1,206	+2,296	open	—	03-05 11:00
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	12	$969	1,150	1,150	+0	open	—	01-14 20:28
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	10	$825	2,650	2,650	+0	open	—	01-25 20:05
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	79	$754	7,110	8,100	-989	open	—	02-16 04:18
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	20	$691	810	610	+200	open	—	03-16 15:15
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	6	$633	1,740	1,740	+0	open	—	03-02 15:50
will artemis ii launch by april 30 584 422 878 853 499	5	$594	436	200	+236	open	—	04-01 22:17
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	14	$578	4,247	4,247	+0	open	—	02-17 21:06
will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	26	$553	2,040	2,040	+0	open	—	02-28 08:03
will trump meet with reza pahlavi by january 31	20	$522	1,311	1,311	+0	open	—	01-25 20:07
iran strike on us military by january 31	4	$480	800	800	+0	open	—	01-14 20:34
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	7	$469	324	620	-296	open	—	02-14 18:11
will trumps meeting with netanyahu not air 536 717 855	7	$382	350	350	+0	open	—	02-11 19:11
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	11	$366	550	500	+50	open	—	03-06 21:32
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	7	$343	550	100	+450	open	—	03-11 13:29
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	11	$336	2,800	2,800	+0	open	—	02-18 04:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	10	$333	370	0	+370	open	—	05-26 10:36
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	1	$312	400	0	+400	open	—	05-13 19:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$310	431	0	+431	open	—	05-07 03:33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	3	$284	484	244	+240	Yes	+$146	02-25 14:16
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	6	$275	400	300	+100	open	—	03-07 11:46
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	6	$258	11,612	1,292	+10,320	open	—	03-02 15:59
will israel or the us target an iranian nuclear facility	26	$252	488	411	+77	open	—	01-25 20:12
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28 881	25	$244	4,900	4,900	+0	open	—	02-26 17:00
iran strike on israel by january 31	5	$231	500	500	+0	open	—	01-25 20:12
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	6	$225	320	120	+200	open	—	01-14 23:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 01:26:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0x82350a…
06-12 00:44:34	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	130	75¢	$98	0xbf700b…
06-11 09:42:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	130	82¢	$107	0x579351…
06-10 01:57:22	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	114	10¢	$11	0x1f70c1…
06-09 02:23:39	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	8¢	$16	0xede9b4…
06-09 02:22:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,220	83¢	$1,013	0x5a66bf…
06-04 03:32:22	us iran nuclear deal by july 31	No	BUY	220	57¢	$125	0x42c4b7…
06-03 07:39:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xbc893a…
06-03 07:39:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	107	95¢	$102	0x95b989…
06-03 07:37:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	137	95¢	$130	0xecc911…
06-03 07:36:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	845	95¢	$803	0xa080f7…
06-01 08:06:52	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x65b9e7…
05-31 23:35:41	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0xf91115…
05-31 18:17:57	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	300	7¢	$21	0xe17c65…
05-31 18:14:27	Critical Discord Incident by June 30?	Yes	SELL	140	11¢	$16	0x5beecf…
05-31 03:05:26	Critical Discord Incident by May 31?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x40991d…
05-30 18:03:10	Critical Discord Incident by May 31?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x29ccdb…
05-30 15:32:51	Critical Discord Incident by May 31?	Yes	BUY	73	4¢	$3	0xcffba9…
05-29 01:54:51	Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xadef12…
05-28 14:40:55	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	67	85¢	$56	0x411fb6…
05-28 12:01:19	Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	Yes	BUY	90	1¢	$1	0x786113…
05-28 04:34:57	Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xb7623f…
05-28 04:34:45	Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x1acfe4…
05-28 04:34:43	Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xb9cfd7…
05-28 04:34:36	Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xd70d5c…
05-28 04:34:33	Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x07ff54…
05-27 22:34:47	Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0x7a221d…
05-27 21:59:19	Critical Discord Incident by June 30?	Yes	BUY	19	41¢	$8	0xce7391…
05-27 21:56:27	Critical Discord Incident by June 30?	Yes	BUY	21	41¢	$9	0x7f96b9…
05-27 21:02:30	Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x7ce213…
05-27 16:27:50	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x5ee561…
05-27 14:35:45	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	33	85¢	$28	0x5d1a23…
05-26 10:36:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	250	90¢	$225	0xc8523b…
05-26 00:46:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	112	90¢	$100	0xeeb7f4…
05-26 00:40:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xa57146…
05-26 00:40:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x50cb79…
05-26 00:40:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xb7528e…
05-26 00:39:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x97fdc8…
05-26 00:39:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x75c15e…
05-26 00:39:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x5c141f…
05-26 00:39:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xf4d1ba…
05-26 00:39:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xc62ee6…
05-23 06:43:43	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xed0cc8…
05-23 06:01:59	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	No	BUY	80	64¢	$51	0x1aa860…
05-23 04:20:46	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x88be78…
05-23 04:13:06	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	63	57¢	$36	0xd99e1d…
05-23 04:03:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0xdce64a…
05-19 19:35:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xc71195…
05-18 19:22:51	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xe7a296…
05-18 19:18:30	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	70	89¢	$62	0xae1989…
05-18 17:46:22	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb9ae38…
05-13 19:59:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	400	78¢	$312	0x5ba6aa…
05-07 20:33:15	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	No	BUY	145	71¢	$103	0xec2fa2…
05-07 04:54:51	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0x3ad34b…
05-07 04:53:41	Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	34¢	$30	0x14dc6d…
05-07 03:58:35	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0xe99736…
05-07 03:38:03	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	No	BUY	95	70¢	$66	0x3e0169…
05-07 03:33:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	431	72¢	$310	0xd9159d…
04-07 21:13:15	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	37	22¢	$8	0xf3c7c6…
04-07 21:06:45	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xc17684…
04-07 21:06:15	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	200	25¢	$51	0x04820e…
04-07 21:05:43	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x245674…
04-07 11:41:51	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	45	65¢	$29	0x24fa05…
04-07 11:35:19	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x7e7c1f…
04-07 11:32:33	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0x1258f8…
04-04 00:44:19	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	50	34¢	$17	0xb91c8e…
04-04 00:44:15	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	Yes	SELL	69	10¢	$7	0x8275e6…
04-02 04:41:03	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x0584a0…
04-02 03:23:13	will the super mario galaxy movie score at least 45 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	BUY	70	28¢	$20	0x88e2d4…
04-02 02:21:37	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x196b68…
04-02 01:20:57	will trump say kharg or island during address to the nation	Yes	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0xa97aac…
04-02 01:20:53	will trump say fake news during address to the nation	Yes	SELL	80	1¢	$1	0x9095e9…
04-02 01:18:57	will trump say sacrifice during address to the nation	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0xd41a73…
04-02 01:17:43	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x4d8a48…
04-02 01:12:09	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	Yes	BUY	69	29¢	$20	0x322b6d…
04-02 01:11:51	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	No	SELL	70	87¢	$61	0x190925…
04-02 01:11:13	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	Yes	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0xf387a7…
04-02 00:50:57	will the super mario galaxy movie score at least 45 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	BUY	30	28¢	$8	0xf3efb6…
04-02 00:47:41	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	Yes	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0xbd723b…
04-01 23:38:23	will trump say sacrifice during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0x3b12bb…
04-01 23:12:09	will trump say kharg or island during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	39	26¢	$10	0x36cfb3…
04-01 23:03:41	will trump say kharg or island during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x2b1b6e…
04-01 22:17:05	will artemis ii launch by april 30 584 422 878 853 499	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x1fc2cb…
04-01 22:14:51	will artemis ii launch by april 30 584 422 878 853 499	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xaf2ebf…
04-01 22:09:57	will artemis ii launch by april 30 584 422 878 853 499	Yes	BUY	36	94¢	$34	0x291ded…
04-01 22:08:01	will artemis ii launch by april 30 584 422 878 853 499	Yes	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0x7fc1b3…
04-01 22:05:33	will artemis ii launch by april 30 584 422 878 853 499	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0xa6fc9b…
04-01 21:32:59	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0x7f8f47…
04-01 20:45:55	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	No	BUY	70	87¢	$61	0x86c130…
04-01 20:35:29	will trump say khamenei or khomeini during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	41	40¢	$16	0x0fb489…
04-01 20:31:49	will trump say khamenei or khomeini during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0xc5334a…
04-01 20:29:31	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	SELL	100	73¢	$73	0x685c30…
04-01 20:19:45	will trump say khamenei or khomeini during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	16	40¢	$6	0xca95dc…
04-01 20:10:17	will trump say khamenei or khomeini during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x3c3dfc…
04-01 20:05:49	will trump say khamenei or khomeini during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	22	40¢	$9	0x6f42e2…
04-01 19:54:03	trump declassifies new ufo files by april 30	No	BUY	89	91¢	$81	0x583321…
04-01 19:50:23	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0xccccff…
04-01 19:48:27	trump declassifies new ufo files by april 30	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x7acfe9…
04-01 19:48:19	trump declassifies new ufo files by april 30	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xb1043b…
04-01 19:48:07	Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	No	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0x7ba7e2…