Likely-Asymmetry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$123

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,065

lifetime

Volume

$87.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$82

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-10 05:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

66% 0% $-73

Politics

27% 0% $-50

Tech

6% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	10	$2.9K	1,942	1,942	+0	open	—	03-06 03:55
will company b be accused of insider trading	28	$2.5K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	02-25 18:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$2.4K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	05-01 20:11
Iran leadership change by April 30?	13	$2.3K	2,030	2,030	+0	open	—	03-15 08:47
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$1.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	03-25 15:13
James Comey charges dropped by May 31?	14	$1.8K	1,295	1,295	+0	open	—	05-06 12:10
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 7th	2	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-01 09:05
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	4	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-01 09:22
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	4	$1.6K	1,600	1,600	+0	open	—	03-13 12:12
cbb ucla uconn 2026 03 22 total 137pt5	2	$1.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	03-22 06:18
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	30	$1.5K	1,203	1,203	+0	open	—	05-23 11:04
cbb furman uconn 2026 03 20 total 136pt5	2	$1.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	03-20 13:15
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	10	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-15 23:18
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	10	$1.2K	1,320	1,320	+0	open	—	03-13 00:31
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	4	$1.2K	797	797	+0	No	$-4	04-03 00:02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$1.2K	800	800	+0	Yes	$-8	03-11 22:11
highest temperature in hong kong on march 22 2026 22c	3	$1.2K	1,245	0	+1,245	open	—	03-22 03:17
will russia capture all of rodynske by march 31	7	$1.2K	1,041	1,041	+0	open	—	03-02 19:19
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?	6	$1.2K	962	962	+0	open	—	02-23 20:54
another 7pt0 or above earthquake by january 31 2026	2	$1.2K	950	950	+0	open	—	01-10 15:30
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	5	$1.2K	1,300	1,300	+0	Yes	$-42	03-04 18:37
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	6	$1.1K	964	964	+0	open	—	06-10 05:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	6	$1.1K	1,034	1,034	+0	open	—	04-08 15:38
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	4	$1.1K	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	03-15 11:10
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	6	$1.0K	841	841	+0	open	—	03-07 01:32
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	13	$968	559	559	+0	open	—	05-06 13:46
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	3	$963	718	718	+0	open	—	06-09 22:30
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	17	$962	800	800	+0	open	—	05-20 04:06
bun dor bay 2026 02 28 bay	32	$961	1,183	1,182	+0	open	—	02-25 18:48
lol jdg al 2026 02 26	9	$955	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	02-26 04:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 05:17:52	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	SELL	200	9¢	$19	0x0a3289…
06-10 05:17:40	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x42a2d4…
06-09 22:30:31	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	688	55¢	$378	0x6c6f84…
06-09 22:29:57	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	30	59¢	$18	0x0609cc…
06-09 22:29:46	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	718	79¢	$567	0x790263…
06-09 18:06:31	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	Yes	SELL	103	21¢	$22	0x8bf152…
06-09 18:05:55	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	Yes	SELL	97	35¢	$34	0x081e7f…
06-09 18:05:45	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	Yes	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0x516827…
06-09 14:55:03	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt0t by june 30	Yes	SELL	100	78¢	$78	0xe9c65c…
06-09 14:54:52	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x11534b…
06-09 09:30:57	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	No	SELL	200	62¢	$124	0x0bad99…
06-09 09:30:46	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x6c2b70…
06-09 07:55:57	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	SELL	99	17¢	$17	0x1fdd43…
06-09 07:55:42	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	BUY	99	17¢	$17	0x8f8a01…
06-09 05:45:10	tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	104	27¢	$28	0xc93c49…
06-09 05:44:36	tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	65	40¢	$26	0x8b5980…
06-09 05:44:01	tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	31	45¢	$14	0xed47d6…
06-09 05:43:49	tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0xf2aec5…
06-08 03:58:58	will city protocol launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	100	28¢	$28	0xed324b…
06-08 03:58:51	will city protocol launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x9cd347…
06-08 02:35:39	will daylight launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	32	37¢	$12	0x454a21…
06-08 02:35:03	will daylight launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	68	40¢	$28	0xe194ff…
06-08 02:34:55	will daylight launch a token by december 31 2027	No	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0xa7192e…
06-07 22:21:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	53¢	$8	0xc29980…
06-07 22:21:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	53¢	$8	0xfa76a9…
06-07 22:00:40	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	225	46¢	$104	0x5994fd…
06-07 22:00:27	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	225	50¢	$112	0xa23dd3…
06-07 20:04:19	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0x41f2fc…
06-07 20:04:07	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0x91143d…
06-07 13:04:24	will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the us by june 30 2026 738	No	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0x222bdc…
06-07 13:04:12	will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the us by june 30 2026 738	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x35530a…
06-07 07:52:37	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	200	82¢	$164	0x26dc90…
06-07 07:52:27	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0xfc9e71…
06-07 02:43:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	200	30¢	$60	0xd7a41d…
06-07 02:43:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0x4e1a66…
06-06 13:27:19	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	386	70¢	$268	0x12b9a7…
06-06 13:27:10	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	386	71¢	$274	0xe96406…
06-06 03:59:49	will spy dip to 710 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	8	35¢	$3	0xd4f341…
06-06 03:59:37	will spy dip to 710 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x846c67…
06-05 18:23:57	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	No	SELL	200	29¢	$58	0x40e633…
06-05 18:23:45	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	No	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0x4ea5ac…
06-05 15:20:25	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	200	18¢	$36	0xba16be…
06-05 15:20:16	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	200	19¢	$38	0x7f1c1d…
06-05 15:17:33	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	SELL	100	18¢	$18	0x38f464…
06-05 15:17:24	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0xd97168…
06-05 15:05:55	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	Yes	SELL	1,500	11¢	$165	0x357d88…
06-05 15:05:46	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	Yes	BUY	1,500	14¢	$210	0x274a7f…
06-05 10:43:30	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	No	SELL	665	79¢	$525	0x425727…
06-05 10:43:19	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	No	BUY	665	80¢	$532	0x3e0d07…
06-05 04:45:25	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	No	SELL	200	31¢	$62	0xbb68d8…
06-05 04:45:18	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	No	BUY	200	32¢	$64	0xb71d4d…
06-04 23:10:51	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	SELL	200	82¢	$163	0x793b3e…
06-04 23:10:40	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	200	82¢	$163	0x758306…
06-04 20:12:57	ebola case in the us by june 30	No	SELL	200	79¢	$158	0x8949f6…
06-04 20:12:48	ebola case in the us by june 30	No	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x2354ca…
06-04 15:15:10	will spy reach 770 in june 2026	No	SELL	100	57¢	$57	0x6b4e9b…
06-04 15:14:57	will spy reach 770 in june 2026	No	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0xd6d9ac…
06-03 22:12:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	135	34¢	$46	0xc1e1d8…
06-03 22:12:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	135	34¢	$46	0xcec61a…
06-03 07:14:25	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June?	Yes	SELL	29	47¢	$14	0x2702d6…
06-03 07:14:13	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June?	Yes	BUY	29	49¢	$14	0x941197…
06-03 04:31:35	Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x01ac38…
06-03 04:21:45	Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0x9a02e9…
06-03 04:21:44	Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	31¢	$28	0x2a653f…
06-03 04:21:33	Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0x8171a9…
06-02 12:52:09	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June?	No	SELL	100	40¢	$40	0xe2d5b1…
06-02 12:51:57	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June?	No	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0x822ee2…
06-01 23:19:34	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?	Yes	SELL	100	66¢	$66	0xbe533a…
06-01 23:19:24	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x065b20…
06-01 18:37:11	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	100	24¢	$24	0xcecdd1…
06-01 18:37:00	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	No	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0xb7bb9e…
05-31 00:00:42	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	95	78¢	$74	0xb35fd7…
05-31 00:00:33	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	95	79¢	$76	0xa22b08…
05-30 13:01:11	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	100	87¢	$87	0xc7dd99…
05-30 13:01:04	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x66a60a…
05-28 12:50:39	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	Yes	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0xfe09f2…
05-28 12:50:25	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0x94f627…
05-28 10:17:59	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x483868…
05-28 10:17:59	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	70	74¢	$52	0x213951…
05-28 10:17:24	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x448a20…
05-28 10:16:51	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0xa7caab…
05-28 10:16:39	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xc6f1df…
05-27 17:39:00	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0x28609a…
05-27 17:38:37	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x3c3368…
05-27 12:48:40	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?	No	SELL	100	82¢	$82	0x7fabe5…
05-27 12:48:26	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x17e92b…
05-26 12:59:40	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	No	SELL	100	68¢	$68	0x51f103…
05-26 12:59:24	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	No	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x209112…
05-25 12:57:47	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	SELL	100	78¢	$78	0xc391c1…
05-25 12:57:33	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xf45c70…
05-24 13:46:01	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	No	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0x1c343c…
05-24 13:45:47	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	No	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0xbb943b…
05-24 09:02:29	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	No	SELL	100	71¢	$71	0x1b3f81…
05-24 09:02:20	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	No	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0x4a5f2a…
05-23 11:04:40	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	No	SELL	85	82¢	$70	0x1a348d…
05-23 11:04:32	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	No	BUY	85	82¢	$70	0xa31055…
05-23 03:52:53	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May?	No	SELL	82	54¢	$45	0x2e94ab…
05-23 03:52:39	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May?	No	BUY	82	54¢	$45	0xab4355…
05-21 14:22:15	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in May?	No	SELL	100	82¢	$82	0x7ed0ea…
05-21 14:22:06	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in May?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x75f526…