Likely-Asymmetry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$123

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,293

lifetime

Volume

$118.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$92

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 08-02 10:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

65% 0% $-73

Politics

24% 0% $-50

Tech

8% — —

Sports

2% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

64 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	4	$3.3K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	07-27 14:15
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	10	$2.9K	1,942	1,942	+0	open	—	03-06 03:55
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	4	$2.5K	2,250	2,250	+0	open	—	06-24 15:27
tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	4	$2.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	07-21 17:50
will company b be accused of insider trading	28	$2.5K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	02-25 18:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$2.4K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	05-01 20:11
Iran leadership change by April 30?	13	$2.3K	2,030	2,030	+0	open	—	03-15 08:47
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	2	$2.1K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	07-28 01:48
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	6	$1.9K	2,350	2,350	+0	open	—	07-06 06:47
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$1.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	03-25 15:13
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	6	$1.9K	2,551	2,551	+0	open	—	07-20 14:04
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	8	$1.9K	1,916	1,916	+0	open	—	06-18 12:53
James Comey charges dropped by May 31?	14	$1.8K	1,295	1,295	+0	open	—	05-06 12:10
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 7th	2	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-01 09:05
Fed rate hike in 2026?	9	$1.6K	1,950	1,950	+0	open	—	07-12 02:53
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	4	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-01 09:22
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	4	$1.6K	1,600	1,600	+0	open	—	03-13 12:12
cbb ucla uconn 2026 03 22 total 137pt5	2	$1.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	03-22 06:18
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	30	$1.5K	1,203	1,203	+0	open	—	05-23 11:04
cbb furman uconn 2026 03 20 total 136pt5	2	$1.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	03-20 13:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$1.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	07-23 21:44
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	10	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-15 23:18
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	10	$1.2K	1,320	1,320	+0	open	—	03-13 00:31
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	4	$1.2K	797	797	+0	No	$-4	04-03 00:02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$1.2K	800	800	+0	Yes	$-8	03-11 22:11
highest temperature in hong kong on march 22 2026 22c	3	$1.2K	1,245	0	+1,245	open	—	03-22 03:17
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	8	$1.2K	1,164	1,164	+0	open	—	06-12 14:11
will russia capture all of rodynske by march 31	7	$1.2K	1,041	1,041	+0	open	—	03-02 19:19
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?	6	$1.2K	962	962	+0	open	—	02-23 20:54
another 7pt0 or above earthquake by january 31 2026	2	$1.2K	950	950	+0	open	—	01-10 15:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-02 10:22:36	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	SELL	200	68¢	$136	0x414967…
08-02 10:22:29	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x4c7943…
08-01 15:46:21	will spain accuse morocco of facilitating the ceuta migrant influx by august 31 20260731174220331	Yes	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0x63e4f6…
08-01 15:46:06	will spain accuse morocco of facilitating the ceuta migrant influx by august 31 20260731174220331	Yes	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0xffb966…
08-01 11:44:17	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0xfde8af…
08-01 11:44:09	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0xa30080…
08-01 08:52:21	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	Yes	SELL	28	36¢	$10	0x9ec2ed…
08-01 08:52:12	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xcf50e5…
07-31 18:43:02	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	Yes	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0xbc403f…
07-31 18:42:48	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x72079f…
07-31 17:29:23	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	Yes	SELL	100	33¢	$33	0x36ed8b…
07-31 17:29:15	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0xa3c8ba…
07-30 13:09:27	will the highest score achieved by an anthropic claude model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 60 or higher 20260723190836287	Yes	SELL	100	43¢	$43	0x61b06b…
07-30 13:09:12	will the highest score achieved by an anthropic claude model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 60 or higher 20260723190836287	Yes	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0xed811f…
07-29 14:09:53	will russia enter oleksiievo druzhkivka by september 30 20260706175201730	No	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0x9453a5…
07-29 14:09:42	will russia enter oleksiievo druzhkivka by september 30 20260706175201730	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xd8a247…
07-28 14:44:26	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	No	SELL	21	36¢	$8	0x96a31d…
07-28 14:44:17	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	No	BUY	21	37¢	$8	0x7638e1…
07-28 12:46:05	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	99	74¢	$74	0x0d9218…
07-28 12:45:56	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	BUY	99	75¢	$74	0x30583c…
07-28 01:48:06	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	1,500	68¢	$1,020	0xa2174e…
07-28 01:47:58	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	1,500	69¢	$1,035	0x2730fb…
07-28 00:12:58	Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	78¢	$78	0xeda2b4…
07-28 00:12:51	Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x4cc0f5…
07-27 19:39:10	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0xe5105b…
07-27 19:39:03	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x7e1de2…
07-27 14:15:01	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	1,500	40¢	$603	0x3c8b36…
07-27 14:14:52	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	1,500	43¢	$645	0x302cca…
07-24 02:12:01	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	SELL	200	82¢	$164	0xdd735a…
07-24 02:11:51	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0xdebc49…
07-23 21:44:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1,500	48¢	$720	0x5eabf9…
07-23 21:44:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,500	49¢	$735	0x436ac3…
07-23 15:46:39	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	225	56¢	$126	0xa9d3fd…
07-23 15:46:31	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	225	57¢	$128	0xb0e2f4…
07-23 00:22:39	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	51¢	$51	0xb62b4b…
07-23 00:22:30	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x6531c0…
07-22 09:31:36	will astralis qualify to lan blast bounty 2026 season 2 20260716204827669	Yes	SELL	40	49¢	$20	0x7750e1…
07-22 09:31:25	will astralis qualify to lan blast bounty 2026 season 2 20260716204827669	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x51af97…
07-22 09:31:25	will astralis qualify to lan blast bounty 2026 season 2 20260716204827669	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x2719e6…
07-21 21:04:45	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	SELL	200	18¢	$36	0x0ac797…
07-21 21:04:36	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	200	19¢	$38	0xa07d3f…
07-21 19:19:46	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	53¢	$18	0x85361c…
07-21 19:19:40	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	54¢	$19	0x634135…
07-21 17:50:39	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	SELL	253	75¢	$190	0x971a65…
07-21 17:50:01	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	SELL	1,024	80¢	$819	0x9aa489…
07-21 17:49:25	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	SELL	222	85¢	$189	0x7b5898…
07-21 17:49:16	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	1,500	88¢	$1,320	0x8c495b…
07-20 14:04:10	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,414	30¢	$424	0x9f4b36…
07-20 14:03:57	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,414	31¢	$438	0x38e707…
07-19 10:37:06	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	SELL	200	79¢	$158	0xae71b4…
07-19 10:36:55	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0x49ecde…
07-19 05:31:45	will thom tillis vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821981	No	SELL	3	4¢	$0	0x063b2d…
07-17 01:38:39	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	SELL	200	16¢	$32	0x03ed85…
07-17 01:38:28	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0xd40b3e…
07-16 02:43:17	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0x2f4738…
07-16 02:43:05	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xb1dafb…
07-15 16:21:40	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	Yes	SELL	35	17¢	$6	0xdf3035…
07-15 16:21:32	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	Yes	BUY	35	17¢	$6	0x82557a…
07-14 18:32:37	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	153	61¢	$93	0xc575e4…
07-14 18:32:28	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	153	62¢	$95	0x6f2812…
07-14 17:09:26	will thom tillis vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821981	No	SELL	19	12¢	$2	0xfcd523…
07-14 17:09:26	will thom tillis vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821981	No	SELL	57	14¢	$8	0xf96841…
07-14 17:09:26	will thom tillis vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821981	No	SELL	21	12¢	$2	0xad7ed0…
07-14 17:09:19	will thom tillis vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821981	No	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x235b93…
07-13 18:08:14	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	33¢	$66	0xc18e6f…
07-13 18:08:04	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	34¢	$67	0x05b5dc…
07-12 08:29:40	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	45¢	$6	0x0b679a…
07-12 08:29:28	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	46¢	$6	0xc5dc15…
07-12 03:09:08	will julin lvarez score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	100	46¢	$46	0xb04187…
07-12 03:08:59	will julin lvarez score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	100	47¢	$47	0xed16f1…
07-12 02:53:08	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	868	40¢	$347	0x1ce7ba…
07-12 02:52:32	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	100	41¢	$41	0xc90b30…
07-12 02:52:32	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	52	41¢	$21	0x0ceb4f…
07-12 02:52:31	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	480	42¢	$203	0x21fcc4…
07-12 02:52:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	1,500	44¢	$660	0xea92d8…
07-11 22:23:26	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	6	79¢	$4	0xe3ff0b…
07-11 22:23:19	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	6	78¢	$4	0x3f2d29…
07-10 00:40:44	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	27¢	$27	0x40887f…
07-10 00:40:34	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x487e7a…
07-09 17:41:22	will honeywell technologies hon q2 building automation sales be above 1pt95b 20260707031326383	Yes	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0x5e6ee3…
07-09 17:41:14	will honeywell technologies hon q2 building automation sales be above 1pt95b 20260707031326383	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x891c49…
07-09 07:04:08	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0x663455…
07-09 07:03:55	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x4f725e…
07-08 22:30:20	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644	No	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0xf00df7…
07-08 22:30:13	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x044491…
07-08 16:38:53	will kylian mbappe score 11 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260701231444070	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x92390d…
07-08 16:38:43	will kylian mbappe score 11 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260701231444070	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x1b4789…
07-08 13:25:52	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	750	56¢	$418	0x088a0c…
07-08 13:25:43	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	750	57¢	$427	0x64d7ad…
07-08 09:47:41	Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0x25b980…
07-08 09:47:34	Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0x1ebe09…
07-08 03:13:25	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	1,500	67¢	$1,005	0xfcfc0a…
07-08 03:13:11	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	1,500	69¢	$1,035	0x281572…
07-08 00:40:50	will switzerland reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149714	No	SELL	200	73¢	$146	0xf71af9…
07-08 00:40:40	will switzerland reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149714	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x1b5ce1…
07-07 16:45:05	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	100	60¢	$60	0x6bbbce…
07-07 16:44:56	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x51c4a4…
07-07 07:53:40	mmm quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 17 2026 2pt24	No	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0x8189b3…
07-07 07:53:32	mmm quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 17 2026 2pt24	No	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0xd58083…
07-06 21:29:28	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	17	49¢	$8	0xc4ec7e…