Likely-Asymmetry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$123

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,159

lifetime

Volume

$99.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$86

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-30 22:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

65% 0% $-73

Politics

26% 0% $-50

Tech

6% — —

Sports

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	10	$2.9K	1,942	1,942	+0	open	—	03-06 03:55
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	4	$2.5K	2,250	2,250	+0	open	—	06-24 15:27
will company b be accused of insider trading	28	$2.5K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	02-25 18:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$2.4K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	05-01 20:11
Iran leadership change by April 30?	13	$2.3K	2,030	2,030	+0	open	—	03-15 08:47
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$1.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	03-25 15:13
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	8	$1.9K	1,916	1,916	+0	open	—	06-18 12:53
James Comey charges dropped by May 31?	14	$1.8K	1,295	1,295	+0	open	—	05-06 12:10
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 7th	2	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-01 09:05
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	4	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-01 09:22
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	4	$1.6K	1,600	1,600	+0	open	—	03-13 12:12
cbb ucla uconn 2026 03 22 total 137pt5	2	$1.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	03-22 06:18
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	30	$1.5K	1,203	1,203	+0	open	—	05-23 11:04
cbb furman uconn 2026 03 20 total 136pt5	2	$1.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	03-20 13:15
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	10	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-15 23:18
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	10	$1.2K	1,320	1,320	+0	open	—	03-13 00:31
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	4	$1.2K	797	797	+0	No	$-4	04-03 00:02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$1.2K	800	800	+0	Yes	$-8	03-11 22:11
highest temperature in hong kong on march 22 2026 22c	3	$1.2K	1,245	0	+1,245	open	—	03-22 03:17
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	8	$1.2K	1,164	1,164	+0	open	—	06-12 14:11
will russia capture all of rodynske by march 31	7	$1.2K	1,041	1,041	+0	open	—	03-02 19:19
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?	6	$1.2K	962	962	+0	open	—	02-23 20:54
another 7pt0 or above earthquake by january 31 2026	2	$1.2K	950	950	+0	open	—	01-10 15:30
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	5	$1.2K	1,300	1,300	+0	Yes	$-42	03-04 18:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	6	$1.1K	1,034	1,034	+0	open	—	04-08 15:38
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	4	$1.1K	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	03-15 11:10
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	5	$1.1K	796	796	+0	open	—	06-16 16:13
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	6	$1.0K	841	841	+0	open	—	03-07 01:32
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	13	$968	559	559	+0	open	—	05-06 13:46
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	17	$962	800	800	+0	open	—	05-20 04:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 00:26:50	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	200	57¢	$114	0xa240d6…
07-02 00:26:43	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	200	58¢	$116	0x7be083…
06-30 22:58:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	225	30¢	$68	0xb1a7ad…
06-30 22:57:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	225	31¢	$70	0x8ec454…
06-30 13:41:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	124	88¢	$109	0x39bf90…
06-30 13:40:47	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	124	88¢	$109	0x9d4f48…
06-30 04:35:38	will 7 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228792	Yes	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0x2b62ec…
06-30 04:35:29	will 7 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228792	Yes	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0x25ccbb…
06-29 02:53:40	will netherlands reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149729	No	SELL	100	78¢	$78	0x91647e…
06-29 02:53:28	will netherlands reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149729	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x36f01d…
06-27 07:20:20	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	200	67¢	$134	0xb0320c…
06-27 07:20:13	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0xe57ea3…
06-26 19:14:28	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	984	40¢	$394	0x38e33d…
06-26 19:14:16	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	984	42¢	$413	0x1df423…
06-26 04:08:16	will usa reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149721	Yes	SELL	200	18¢	$36	0xa3905a…
06-26 04:08:07	will usa reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149721	Yes	BUY	200	19¢	$38	0xf2b2bb…
06-25 19:18:16	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	24	78¢	$19	0x243090…
06-25 19:17:40	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	8	81¢	$6	0xfe2796…
06-25 19:17:40	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	8	81¢	$6	0xc6b4c0…
06-25 19:17:38	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	60	83¢	$50	0xfe0a77…
06-25 19:17:29	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x0a5987…
06-25 19:03:49	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	114	68¢	$78	0xbbe5df…
06-25 19:03:41	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	114	74¢	$84	0xc1a8af…
06-24 23:35:34	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	200	76¢	$152	0x3e79eb…
06-24 23:35:23	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0x66835d…
06-24 15:48:10	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	100	68¢	$68	0x25ffa6…
06-24 15:47:58	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x172aa8…
06-24 15:27:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1,500	72¢	$1,080	0x1494da…
06-24 15:26:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1,500	73¢	$1,095	0xc3c576…
06-24 10:23:29	will nocries play an hltv recorded match by june 30	No	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x595468…
06-24 10:23:16	will nocries play an hltv recorded match by june 30	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x22fb03…
06-23 22:43:23	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	9	32¢	$3	0x49c212…
06-23 22:43:14	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x8bdb57…
06-23 13:06:10	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	37	90¢	$33	0x396f54…
06-23 13:05:58	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	37	90¢	$33	0x0dfddb…
06-23 06:23:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0xbb7427…
06-23 06:22:46	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x3e802e…
06-23 04:49:44	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	SELL	200	82¢	$164	0x697917…
06-23 04:49:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0xba88e4…
06-22 10:57:25	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	40¢	$60	0xa3c4d5…
06-22 10:57:07	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	41¢	$61	0x22c795…
06-22 10:05:10	will nansen launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	86	56¢	$48	0xe31710…
06-22 10:04:34	will nansen launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	114	61¢	$69	0x082cfa…
06-22 10:04:22	will nansen launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x01638c…
06-22 00:52:11	will usa reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149721	No	SELL	100	78¢	$78	0xf4ace8…
06-22 00:52:02	will usa reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149721	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x0fbed9…
06-19 13:24:37	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	100	49¢	$49	0x5670c7…
06-19 13:24:22	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x1bbd3a…
06-19 10:48:40	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	225	35¢	$79	0x5795c3…
06-19 10:48:25	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	225	36¢	$81	0x0b4273…
06-19 10:32:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	750	24¢	$180	0xd0c053…
06-19 10:32:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	750	25¢	$188	0x436234…
06-18 12:53:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,500	46¢	$691	0x4ae4a4…
06-18 12:52:20	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,500	47¢	$705	0x8dc735…
06-17 19:15:34	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	No	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0x5e34be…
06-17 19:15:23	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x008589…
06-17 14:34:35	o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	60¢	$60	0x5942e9…
06-17 14:34:22	o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x4ac7ad…
06-17 07:56:25	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	52¢	$52	0xfaa1b8…
06-17 07:56:10	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0xe9212b…
06-17 06:31:28	pedro castillo pardoned in 2026	No	SELL	250	82¢	$205	0x366f9c…
06-17 06:31:14	pedro castillo pardoned in 2026	No	BUY	250	83¢	$208	0xa33c83…
06-17 03:32:15	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	No	SELL	100	52¢	$52	0xc7aada…
06-17 03:32:06	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	No	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0x867c40…
06-16 21:21:37	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0xa424b7…
06-16 21:21:23	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0xbf5351…
06-16 16:13:22	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	78	54¢	$42	0xb83084…
06-16 16:13:07	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	78	57¢	$45	0x51cd44…
06-16 15:31:38	Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	100	58¢	$58	0xd5ae12…
06-16 15:31:26	Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0x8a0879…
06-16 13:59:05	o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	53¢	$53	0xe6e2d1…
06-16 13:58:55	o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0x10c812…
06-16 09:57:48	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	SELL	100	52¢	$52	0x614e86…
06-16 09:57:37	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0x43fd9e…
06-16 05:58:06	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	70	46¢	$32	0xbca61b…
06-16 05:57:55	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	70	46¢	$32	0x6bd18e…
06-15 18:24:13	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	750	53¢	$401	0xe89bf1…
06-15 18:24:00	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	750	55¢	$413	0xc5466a…
06-15 09:15:19	will propr launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	SELL	100	82¢	$82	0xd3ac04…
06-15 09:15:10	will propr launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x53a2f3…
06-14 05:02:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	55¢	$110	0x44d30c…
06-14 05:02:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	56¢	$112	0x37afa8…
06-13 15:06:00	will propr launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0xeb0ca7…
06-13 15:05:46	will propr launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x917da6…
06-13 01:49:52	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x909b34…
06-13 01:49:43	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0xea11f1…
06-12 14:11:09	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	SELL	200	19¢	$38	0x99411a…
06-12 14:11:03	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0x9e477b…
06-12 13:30:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	54¢	$108	0xf1e062…
06-12 13:30:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0x3773d5…
06-12 12:31:06	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	100	34¢	$34	0xc498c2…
06-12 12:30:52	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0xd1359e…
06-11 21:12:19	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	225	63¢	$142	0x64bb49…
06-11 21:12:09	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	225	68¢	$153	0x4d68cd…
06-11 08:24:06	will ng reach 3 40 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	100	51¢	$51	0xef66af…
06-11 08:23:52	will ng reach 3 40 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0xca288e…
06-10 05:17:52	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	SELL	200	9¢	$19	0x0a3289…
06-10 05:17:40	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x42a2d4…
06-09 22:30:31	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	688	55¢	$378	0x6c6f84…
06-09 22:29:57	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	30	59¢	$18	0x0609cc…