Likely-Asymmetry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.60K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

6.5%

Resolved

556

Trades

1,908

lifetime

Volume

$159.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$84

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 08-02 11:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 141 days

Categories

Other

68% 22% -$1,200

Politics

21% 7% -$663

Tech

8% 0% -$498

Sports

2% 8% -$118

Crypto

1% 0% -$114

Pop-Culture

0% 50% -$5

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-02).

Open positions Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	4	$3.3K	3,000	3,000	+0	Yes	-$72	07-27 14:15
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	10	$2.9K	1,942	1,942	+0	Yes	-$23	03-06 03:55
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	4	$2.5K	2,250	2,250	+0	No	-$22	06-24 15:27
tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	4	$2.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	-$122	07-21 17:50
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	4	$2.5K	1,725	1,725	+0	Yes	-$42	06-11 21:12
will company b be accused of insider trading	28	$2.5K	2,500	2,500	+0	No	-$19	02-25 18:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$2.4K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	-$6	05-01 20:11
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	42	$2.3K	1,854	1,854	+0	open	—	05-17 14:49
Iran leadership change by April 30?	13	$2.3K	2,030	2,030	+0	No	-$20	03-15 08:47
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	4	$2.2K	1,725	1,725	+0	Yes	-$17	07-13 23:29
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	6	$2.1K	1,888	1,888	+0	Yes	-$34	07-27 22:06
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title?	7	$2.1K	1,500	1,500	+0	Yes	-$191	07-28 00:48
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	2	$2.1K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	07-28 01:48
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	2	$2.0K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$0	07-16 18:06
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	6	$1.9K	2,350	2,350	+0	open	—	07-06 06:47
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$1.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	Yes	-$33	03-25 15:13
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	6	$1.9K	2,551	2,551	+0	open	—	07-20 14:04
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	8	$1.9K	1,916	1,916	+0	open	—	06-18 12:53
James Comey charges dropped by May 31?	14	$1.8K	1,295	1,295	+0	No	-$4	05-06 12:10
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	12	$1.8K	1,375	1,375	+0	open	—	06-18 11:12
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 7th	2	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$10	03-01 09:05
Fed rate hike in 2026?	9	$1.6K	1,950	1,950	+0	Yes	-$59	07-12 02:53
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	4	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	-$5	03-01 09:22
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	4	$1.6K	1,600	1,600	+0	No	-$20	03-13 12:12
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	11	$1.6K	1,500	1,500	+0	Yes	$0	06-18 23:10
cbb ucla uconn 2026 03 22 total 137pt5	2	$1.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	Under	-$43	03-22 06:18
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	30	$1.5K	1,203	1,203	+0	No	-$8	05-23 11:04
cbb furman uconn 2026 03 20 total 136pt5	2	$1.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	Over	-$30	03-20 13:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$1.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	07-23 21:44
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	24	$1.3K	1,227	1,227	+0	open	—	05-28 08:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-02 11:16:29	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x2c48f0…
08-02 11:16:17	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x18b913…
08-02 10:22:36	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	SELL	200	68¢	$136	0x414967…
08-02 10:22:29	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x4c7943…
08-02 06:19:51	Will Swapped be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0xbb9b4a…
08-02 06:19:39	Will Swapped be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0xc04692…
08-01 15:46:21	will spain accuse morocco of facilitating the ceuta migrant influx by august 31 20260731174220331	Yes	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0x63e4f6…
08-01 15:46:06	will spain accuse morocco of facilitating the ceuta migrant influx by august 31 20260731174220331	Yes	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0xffb966…
08-01 14:23:27	Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?	No	SELL	100	32¢	$32	0xca5100…
08-01 14:23:18	Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?	No	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0x21e539…
08-01 11:44:17	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0xfde8af…
08-01 11:44:09	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0xa30080…
08-01 10:15:00	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	SELL	62	34¢	$21	0x53f3c8…
08-01 10:14:56	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	SELL	38	47¢	$18	0x28d26e…
08-01 10:14:44	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0x14fadc…
08-01 09:29:17	Will Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next?	No	SELL	100	63¢	$63	0xe95009…
08-01 09:29:09	Will Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next?	No	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x5f858d…
08-01 09:25:05	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0xf35cfb…
08-01 09:24:57	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x475d8d…
08-01 08:52:21	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	Yes	SELL	28	36¢	$10	0x9ec2ed…
08-01 08:52:12	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xcf50e5…
08-01 07:11:21	Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027?	No	SELL	100	30¢	$30	0x439a15…
08-01 07:11:15	Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027?	No	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0xdd3ea6…
08-01 06:10:00	Will Mohamed Salah join Al-Ittihad?	Yes	SELL	36	22¢	$8	0xb65029…
08-01 06:09:29	Will Mohamed Salah join Al-Ittihad?	Yes	SELL	64	42¢	$27	0xa46e82…
08-01 06:09:21	Will Mohamed Salah join Al-Ittihad?	Yes	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0xc851a1…
08-01 05:10:23	Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	389	5¢	$21	0xdee7f2…
08-01 05:10:17	Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	389	75¢	$292	0x0d4ec4…
07-31 23:38:44	Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?	Yes	SELL	100	52¢	$52	0x748fdd…
07-31 23:38:33	Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?	Yes	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0x68d31a…
07-31 18:43:02	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	Yes	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0xbc403f…
07-31 18:42:48	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x72079f…
07-31 17:29:23	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	Yes	SELL	100	33¢	$33	0x36ed8b…
07-31 17:29:15	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0xa3c8ba…
07-31 01:29:51	Will “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?	Yes	SELL	22	40¢	$9	0x070e28…
07-31 01:29:42	Will “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?	Yes	BUY	21	40¢	$8	0xba9830…
07-31 01:29:41	Will “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?	Yes	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0x5fd636…
07-30 22:52:44	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	100	42¢	$42	0x32ced3…
07-30 22:52:32	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0xa25748…
07-30 22:39:48	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?	No	SELL	100	82¢	$82	0x91134c…
07-30 22:39:41	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xac05f7…
07-30 14:05:47	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	SELL	45	42¢	$19	0xa552ed…
07-30 14:05:15	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	SELL	40	46¢	$18	0xb14445…
07-30 14:05:15	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	SELL	15	44¢	$7	0xac4bf3…
07-30 14:05:03	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0xc6fd40…
07-30 13:09:27	will the highest score achieved by an anthropic claude model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 60 or higher 20260723190836287	Yes	SELL	100	43¢	$43	0x61b06b…
07-30 13:09:12	will the highest score achieved by an anthropic claude model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 60 or higher 20260723190836287	Yes	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0xed811f…
07-30 09:59:26	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	200	39¢	$78	0x9f37fd…
07-30 09:59:17	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	200	41¢	$82	0xead007…
07-30 05:09:00	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?	Yes	SELL	51	26¢	$13	0xce2712…
07-30 05:08:51	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?	Yes	BUY	51	26¢	$13	0xc7e354…
07-29 23:48:39	Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?	Yes	SELL	18	19¢	$3	0x39560b…
07-29 23:48:36	Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?	Yes	SELL	79	22¢	$17	0x84dae3…
07-29 23:48:27	Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?	Yes	BUY	97	21¢	$21	0xc60b97…
07-29 18:07:51	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	No	SELL	100	39¢	$39	0x5d4fac…
07-29 18:07:38	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	No	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x17fd67…
07-29 14:09:53	will russia enter oleksiievo druzhkivka by september 30 20260706175201730	No	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0x9453a5…
07-29 14:09:42	will russia enter oleksiievo druzhkivka by september 30 20260706175201730	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xd8a247…
07-29 02:00:41	Will Katherine LaNasa – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series?	No	SELL	100	28¢	$28	0x75688f…
07-29 02:00:29	Will Katherine LaNasa – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series?	No	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0x2811fd…
07-28 19:08:26	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	200	40¢	$80	0xdd4d8c…
07-28 19:08:14	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	40	41¢	$16	0xdf1d7f…
07-28 19:08:14	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	6	41¢	$3	0xcc7481…
07-28 19:08:14	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	154	41¢	$63	0x8bdd3c…
07-28 14:44:26	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	No	SELL	21	36¢	$8	0x96a31d…
07-28 14:44:17	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	No	BUY	21	37¢	$8	0x7638e1…
07-28 13:31:01	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	200	62¢	$123	0x670930…
07-28 13:30:52	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0xf3b5c0…
07-28 13:30:43	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	200	51¢	$102	0xbba246…
07-28 13:30:35	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0x330583…
07-28 12:46:05	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	99	74¢	$74	0x0d9218…
07-28 12:45:56	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	BUY	99	75¢	$74	0x30583c…
07-28 09:46:35	Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?	No	SELL	100	43¢	$43	0x67a6d6…
07-28 09:46:23	Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?	No	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x1c0f00…
07-28 01:48:06	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	1,500	68¢	$1,020	0xa2174e…
07-28 01:47:58	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	1,500	69¢	$1,035	0x2730fb…
07-28 00:48:37	Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title?	Yes	SELL	1,018	61¢	$620	0xef5b45…
07-28 00:48:00	Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title?	Yes	SELL	250	64¢	$160	0x4f6a3a…
07-28 00:47:24	Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title?	Yes	SELL	166	66¢	$110	0xc44032…
07-28 00:46:48	Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title?	Yes	SELL	11	68¢	$8	0x64ff08…
07-28 00:46:48	Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title?	Yes	SELL	30	66¢	$20	0x5cd0b9…
07-28 00:46:46	Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title?	Yes	SELL	25	66¢	$16	0xbc6f66…
07-28 00:46:36	Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title?	Yes	BUY	1,500	75¢	$1,125	0x5bdf5d…
07-28 00:44:57	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?	No	SELL	100	66¢	$66	0x9b647d…
07-28 00:44:57	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?	No	SELL	100	75¢	$75	0x22a77f…
07-28 00:44:46	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x325b5c…
07-28 00:44:45	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?	No	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x1a6d7a…
07-28 00:12:58	Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	78¢	$78	0xeda2b4…
07-28 00:12:51	Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x4cc0f5…
07-27 22:06:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	750	46¢	$345	0x78aeca…
07-27 22:06:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	750	48¢	$360	0x0322c9…
07-27 19:39:10	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0xe5105b…
07-27 19:39:03	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x7e1de2…
07-27 18:08:46	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?	No	SELL	100	66¢	$66	0xe3c275…
07-27 18:08:06	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?	No	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x936ed4…
07-27 14:15:01	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	1,500	40¢	$603	0x3c8b36…
07-27 14:14:52	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	1,500	43¢	$645	0x302cca…
07-26 19:50:25	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of August 8?	No	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x86578b…
07-26 19:50:18	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of August 8?	No	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x001043…
07-26 18:55:51	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	55¢	$19	0x583926…