Likely-Asymmetry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$123

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,257

lifetime

Volume

$111.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$89

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-22 09:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

65% 0% $-73

Politics

23% 0% $-50

Tech

8% — —

Sports

2% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	10	$2.9K	1,942	1,942	+0	open	—	03-06 03:55
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	4	$2.5K	2,250	2,250	+0	open	—	06-24 15:27
tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	4	$2.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	07-21 17:50
will company b be accused of insider trading	28	$2.5K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	02-25 18:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$2.4K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	05-01 20:11
Iran leadership change by April 30?	13	$2.3K	2,030	2,030	+0	open	—	03-15 08:47
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	2	$2.0K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	07-08 03:13
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	6	$1.9K	2,350	2,350	+0	open	—	07-06 06:47
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$1.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	03-25 15:13
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	6	$1.9K	2,551	2,551	+0	open	—	07-20 14:04
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	8	$1.9K	1,916	1,916	+0	open	—	06-18 12:53
James Comey charges dropped by May 31?	14	$1.8K	1,295	1,295	+0	open	—	05-06 12:10
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 7th	2	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-01 09:05
Fed rate hike in 2026?	9	$1.6K	1,950	1,950	+0	open	—	07-12 02:53
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	4	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-01 09:22
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	4	$1.6K	1,600	1,600	+0	open	—	03-13 12:12
cbb ucla uconn 2026 03 22 total 137pt5	2	$1.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	03-22 06:18
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	30	$1.5K	1,203	1,203	+0	open	—	05-23 11:04
cbb furman uconn 2026 03 20 total 136pt5	2	$1.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	03-20 13:15
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	10	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-15 23:18
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	10	$1.2K	1,320	1,320	+0	open	—	03-13 00:31
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	4	$1.2K	797	797	+0	No	$-4	04-03 00:02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$1.2K	800	800	+0	Yes	$-8	03-11 22:11
highest temperature in hong kong on march 22 2026 22c	3	$1.2K	1,245	0	+1,245	open	—	03-22 03:17
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	8	$1.2K	1,164	1,164	+0	open	—	06-12 14:11
will russia capture all of rodynske by march 31	7	$1.2K	1,041	1,041	+0	open	—	03-02 19:19
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?	6	$1.2K	962	962	+0	open	—	02-23 20:54
another 7pt0 or above earthquake by january 31 2026	2	$1.2K	950	950	+0	open	—	01-10 15:30
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	5	$1.2K	1,300	1,300	+0	Yes	$-42	03-04 18:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	6	$1.1K	1,034	1,034	+0	open	—	04-08 15:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 09:31:36	will astralis qualify to lan blast bounty 2026 season 2 20260716204827669	Yes	SELL	40	49¢	$20	0x7750e1…
07-22 09:31:25	will astralis qualify to lan blast bounty 2026 season 2 20260716204827669	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x51af97…
07-22 09:31:25	will astralis qualify to lan blast bounty 2026 season 2 20260716204827669	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x2719e6…
07-21 21:04:45	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	SELL	200	18¢	$36	0x0ac797…
07-21 21:04:36	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	200	19¢	$38	0xa07d3f…
07-21 19:19:46	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	53¢	$18	0x85361c…
07-21 19:19:40	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	54¢	$19	0x634135…
07-21 17:50:39	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	SELL	253	75¢	$190	0x971a65…
07-21 17:50:01	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	SELL	1,024	80¢	$819	0x9aa489…
07-21 17:49:25	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	SELL	222	85¢	$189	0x7b5898…
07-21 17:49:16	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	1,500	88¢	$1,320	0x8c495b…
07-20 14:04:10	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,414	30¢	$424	0x9f4b36…
07-20 14:03:57	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,414	31¢	$438	0x38e707…
07-19 10:37:06	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	SELL	200	79¢	$158	0xae71b4…
07-19 10:36:55	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0x49ecde…
07-19 05:31:45	will thom tillis vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821981	No	SELL	3	4¢	$0	0x063b2d…
07-17 01:38:39	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	SELL	200	16¢	$32	0x03ed85…
07-17 01:38:28	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0xd40b3e…
07-16 02:43:17	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0x2f4738…
07-16 02:43:05	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xb1dafb…
07-15 16:21:40	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	Yes	SELL	35	17¢	$6	0xdf3035…
07-15 16:21:32	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	Yes	BUY	35	17¢	$6	0x82557a…
07-14 18:32:37	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	153	61¢	$93	0xc575e4…
07-14 18:32:28	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	153	62¢	$95	0x6f2812…
07-14 17:09:26	will thom tillis vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821981	No	SELL	19	12¢	$2	0xfcd523…
07-14 17:09:26	will thom tillis vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821981	No	SELL	57	14¢	$8	0xf96841…
07-14 17:09:26	will thom tillis vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821981	No	SELL	21	12¢	$2	0xad7ed0…
07-14 17:09:19	will thom tillis vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821981	No	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x235b93…
07-13 18:08:14	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	33¢	$66	0xc18e6f…
07-13 18:08:04	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	34¢	$67	0x05b5dc…
07-12 08:29:40	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	45¢	$6	0x0b679a…
07-12 08:29:28	Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	46¢	$6	0xc5dc15…
07-12 03:09:08	will julin lvarez score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	100	46¢	$46	0xb04187…
07-12 03:08:59	will julin lvarez score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	100	47¢	$47	0xed16f1…
07-12 02:53:08	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	868	40¢	$347	0x1ce7ba…
07-12 02:52:32	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	100	41¢	$41	0xc90b30…
07-12 02:52:32	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	52	41¢	$21	0x0ceb4f…
07-12 02:52:31	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	480	42¢	$203	0x21fcc4…
07-12 02:52:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	1,500	44¢	$660	0xea92d8…
07-11 22:23:26	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	6	79¢	$4	0xe3ff0b…
07-11 22:23:19	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	6	78¢	$4	0x3f2d29…
07-10 00:40:44	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	27¢	$27	0x40887f…
07-10 00:40:34	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x487e7a…
07-09 17:41:22	will honeywell technologies hon q2 building automation sales be above 1pt95b 20260707031326383	Yes	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0x5e6ee3…
07-09 17:41:14	will honeywell technologies hon q2 building automation sales be above 1pt95b 20260707031326383	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x891c49…
07-09 07:04:08	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0x663455…
07-09 07:03:55	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x4f725e…
07-08 22:30:20	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644	No	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0xf00df7…
07-08 22:30:13	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x044491…
07-08 16:38:53	will kylian mbappe score 11 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260701231444070	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x92390d…
07-08 16:38:43	will kylian mbappe score 11 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260701231444070	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x1b4789…
07-08 13:25:52	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	750	56¢	$418	0x088a0c…
07-08 13:25:43	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	750	57¢	$427	0x64d7ad…
07-08 09:47:41	Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0x25b980…
07-08 09:47:34	Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0x1ebe09…
07-08 03:13:25	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	1,500	67¢	$1,005	0xfcfc0a…
07-08 03:13:11	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	1,500	69¢	$1,035	0x281572…
07-08 00:40:50	will switzerland reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149714	No	SELL	200	73¢	$146	0xf71af9…
07-08 00:40:40	will switzerland reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149714	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x1b5ce1…
07-07 16:45:05	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	100	60¢	$60	0x6bbbce…
07-07 16:44:56	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x51c4a4…
07-07 07:53:40	mmm quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 17 2026 2pt24	No	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0x8189b3…
07-07 07:53:32	mmm quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 17 2026 2pt24	No	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0xd58083…
07-06 21:29:28	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	17	49¢	$8	0xc4ec7e…
07-06 21:28:52	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	150	51¢	$77	0x1549f4…
07-06 21:28:16	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	33	55¢	$18	0x50e3ce…
07-06 21:28:10	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	200	56¢	$112	0xb4d9f7…
07-06 14:38:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	200	82¢	$164	0xaa4cf9…
07-06 14:37:50	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x214882…
07-06 12:16:37	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	54¢	$54	0xdabf3e…
07-06 12:16:26	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0xd55ef6…
07-06 10:56:04	Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0x63647e…
07-06 10:55:52	Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x4331e8…
07-06 10:48:56	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	No	SELL	100	38¢	$38	0xca1576…
07-06 10:48:50	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	No	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0xe19270…
07-06 06:47:47	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,500	33¢	$495	0xbcd5b7…
07-06 06:47:37	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,500	34¢	$510	0x287cbb…
07-06 04:45:28	will england reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149753	No	SELL	100	35¢	$35	0x054651…
07-06 04:45:19	will england reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149753	No	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0x216a0d…
07-06 02:42:44	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	No	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0x694ce9…
07-06 02:42:35	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0xc6e810…
07-05 23:06:53	Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch?	No	SELL	42	77¢	$32	0x79441d…
07-05 23:06:43	Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0xee7947…
07-05 23:06:41	Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch?	No	BUY	12	78¢	$9	0x080eb9…
07-05 04:54:59	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	15¢	$8	0xf5616b…
07-05 04:54:50	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	16¢	$9	0xf5f17d…
07-05 00:36:31	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1470 by december 31 2026	No	SELL	100	47¢	$47	0x36f294…
07-05 00:36:20	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1470 by december 31 2026	No	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x8294fe…
07-05 00:07:50	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	Yes	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0xa8722a…
07-05 00:07:38	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	Yes	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x39183a…
07-02 15:46:47	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0x5e61e1…
07-02 15:46:38	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0x60910f…
07-02 15:09:17	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	71	83¢	$59	0xfa39cf…
07-02 15:08:43	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	60	84¢	$50	0x458f8d…
07-02 15:08:41	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	69	86¢	$60	0x20dad5…
07-02 15:08:28	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x35cd3c…
07-02 00:26:50	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	200	57¢	$114	0xa240d6…
07-02 00:26:43	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	200	58¢	$116	0x7be083…
06-30 22:58:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	225	30¢	$68	0xb1a7ad…
06-30 22:57:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	225	31¢	$70	0x8ec454…