Horrible-Cohort — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$154

Unrealized P&L

-$161

Hit rate

37.2%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

183

474 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$3.48K

$45.2K lifetime

Avg / trade

$95

Open exposure

$252

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-12

last 10-29 05:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 73 days

Categories

Crypto

60% 93% -$70

Other

39% 48% -$33

Politics

1% 33% +$88

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 67 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	No		+599	$413	42¢	$252	-$161	10-19 04:12
Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No		+0	$0	12¢	$0	$0	10-29 05:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25?	3	$2.2K	1,455	730	+725	No	+$3	05-25 11:12
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on June 1?	2	$1.8K	926	926	+0	No	+$11	06-02 02:11
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16?	2	$1.3K	650	650	+0	No	+$9	05-16 07:30
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13?	2	$1.2K	601	601	+0	No	+$8	05-13 01:33
will bitcoin dip to 62k on june 3	4	$1.2K	646	646	+0	Yes	-$120	06-04 00:30
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?	3	$1.1K	590	590	+0	Down	+$24	05-12 10:38
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8?	2	$1.1K	554	554	+0	Up	+$16	05-08 14:36
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29?	6	$1000	511	511	+0	No	+$14	05-29 06:17
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31?	1	$995	1,009	0	+1,009	No	+$14	05-31 07:28
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29?	1	$981	996	0	+996	No	+$15	05-29 17:19
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on May 27?	2	$957	966	0	+966	No	+$10	05-27 19:47
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4?	9	$924	490	490	+0	Yes	-$2	05-04 16:34
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 20?	3	$921	464	464	+0	No	+$6	05-20 23:27
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 2?	2	$918	930	0	+930	No	+$12	06-02 17:23
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 14?	3	$898	635	317	+317	Up	+$35	05-14 16:45
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 17?	7	$806	718	100	+617	No	+$4	05-18 01:33
spx opens up or down on april 22 2026	7	$764	563	254	+309	Up	+$38	04-22 12:05
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 24?	3	$728	728	6	+722	No	+$6	05-24 16:19
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26?	2	$711	360	360	+0	No	+$9	04-26 15:53
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23?	1	$696	704	0	+704	No	+$8	05-23 05:47
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 26?	1	$694	925	0	+925	Down	+$231	05-26 17:07
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 25?	2	$687	345	345	+0	No	+$2	04-25 17:01
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 21?	2	$679	685	0	+685	No	+$6	05-22 02:18
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 24?	2	$670	337	337	+0	Up	+$4	04-24 22:25
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 16?	1	$662	666	0	+666	No	+$4	05-16 22:39
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16?	1	$658	665	0	+665	No	+$7	05-16 11:04
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 24?	2	$641	335	334	+1	Up	+$26	04-24 17:38
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 19?	1	$579	583	0	+583	No	+$4	05-20 02:23
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 11?	1	$567	568	0	+568	No	+$1	05-11 18:35
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 28?	1	$495	500	0	+500	Yes	+$5	05-28 14:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 05:07:13	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No	BUY	0	27¢	$0	0xc2fab5…
10-28 06:10:52	Will China’s CPI increase by ≤0.6% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	BUY	151	77¢	$116	0xe1c12b…
10-19 04:12:02	Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xf83917…
10-18 11:32:15	Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	93	34¢	$32	0x72a78a…
10-17 00:32:29	ilhan omar denaturalization case filed by december 31 2026	No	SELL	13	88¢	$11	0xb355ee…
10-17 00:30:41	will nathan fielder be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	125	77¢	$96	0x1d610a…
10-17 00:25:39	will nathan fielder be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	71	78¢	$55	0x7ee24d…
10-17 00:23:14	will nathan fielder be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	70	78¢	$54	0x8287c5…
10-17 00:23:05	will nathan fielder be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	90	77¢	$69	0xbf4a06…
10-16 23:44:44	will joel coen be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	SELL	40	90¢	$36	0x28227e…
10-16 17:02:00	will steven spielberg be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	55	6¢	$3	0x44bb41…
10-16 15:18:28	will nathan fielder be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xba77a7…
10-16 15:14:30	will christopher miller be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x73470d…
10-16 14:59:10	will steven spielberg be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	370	9¢	$32	0xc5a2fe…
10-16 14:56:16	will beth de araujo be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0x7b219e…
10-16 14:51:09	will javier ambrossi be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261014120000001	No	SELL	100	19¢	$19	0xf1f69b…
10-16 13:12:43	will javier ambrossi be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261014120000001	No	BUY	30	19¢	$6	0x98ec48…
10-16 13:12:27	will javier ambrossi be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261014120000001	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xfbd29f…
10-16 13:12:25	will javier ambrossi be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261014120000001	No	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xb0b8c6…
10-16 13:12:12	will javier calvo be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x27131e…
10-16 13:07:48	will christopher miller be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x52f9de…
10-16 12:58:57	will ben affleck be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0xb8484b…
10-16 12:57:24	will christopher miller be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	19	7¢	$1	0x264f27…
10-16 12:45:30	will christopher miller be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	111	11¢	$12	0xc99336…
10-16 12:33:10	will beth de araujo be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xb4d1bd…
10-16 12:32:34	will james ashcroft be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xdb889c…
10-16 12:32:22	will janus metz pedersen be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xcfd5cd…
10-16 12:31:28	will janus metz pedersen be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x47a19f…
10-16 12:30:55	will james ashcroft be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0xf0ccd0…
10-16 12:30:25	will nathan fielder be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0x0eefcd…
10-16 12:29:52	will steven spielberg be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xeb3dc0…
10-16 12:28:39	will steven spielberg be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	405	8¢	$32	0xb0a603…
10-16 12:27:13	will nathan fielder be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xaa45d4…
10-16 12:25:40	Will Jackson Olson be eliminated in week 6 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x36d456…
10-16 12:25:18	will danny boyle be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x733a15…
10-16 12:24:58	will ben affleck be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xf39600…
10-16 12:24:07	will danny boyle be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x5a73b8…
10-16 12:16:51	will aaron sorkin be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261014120000003	Yes	SELL	31	6¢	$2	0x8da49c…
10-16 12:15:40	will christopher miller be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0xf96384…
10-16 12:13:33	will aaron sorkin be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261014120000003	Yes	BUY	31	6¢	$2	0xb50c0d…
10-16 12:08:01	will ben affleck be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0xeb7ef8…
10-16 12:06:49	will danny boyle be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	SELL	50	91¢	$46	0x05c6c0…
10-16 12:05:00	will nathan fielder be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xaef4fc…
10-16 12:04:21	will christopher miller be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	90	8¢	$7	0x209324…
10-16 11:57:12	will na hong jin be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	28	5¢	$1	0xcc34b3…
10-16 11:51:19	will joel coen be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x8ce4e3…
10-16 11:50:04	will ben affleck be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x2640b6…
10-16 11:49:33	will na hong jin be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0x6257cf…
10-16 11:38:36	will danny boyle be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x9b4b4e…
10-16 11:23:30	will na hong jin be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x8df259…
10-16 11:23:00	will joel coen be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x48f521…
10-16 11:19:01	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.8 on October 16, 2026?	No	SELL	33	3¢	$1	0x45e9b4…
10-16 10:53:55	will na hong jin be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xe7f578…
10-16 10:53:30	will na hong jin be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0x6a280c…
10-16 10:53:19	will na hong jin be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x08970b…
10-16 10:05:15	will na hong jin be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x2a8190…
10-16 10:05:00	will na hong jin be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x83d830…
10-16 09:51:30	will na hong jin be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	25	91¢	$23	0xc3f6f1…
10-16 09:47:27	will na hong jin be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xecfa7a…
10-16 09:47:18	will na hong jin be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x909284…
10-16 09:45:10	will na hong jin be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x76fbaa…
10-16 09:40:48	Will Tyler Cameron be eliminated in week 6 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	Yes	BUY	0	12¢	$0	0x4e611b…
10-16 09:39:27	Will Tyler Cameron be eliminated in week 6 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	Yes	BUY	27	12¢	$3	0x85ec4c…
10-16 09:39:25	Will Tyler Cameron be eliminated in week 6 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	Yes	BUY	136	12¢	$16	0x954f04…
10-16 09:37:40	Will Tyler Cameron be eliminated in week 6 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	Yes	BUY	36	12¢	$4	0x73837b…
10-16 07:13:00	Will Jackson Olson be eliminated in week 6 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	Yes	BUY	76	13¢	$10	0xc6906d…
10-16 07:12:58	Will Jackson Olson be eliminated in week 6 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	Yes	BUY	24	13¢	$3	0xb76fcf…
10-16 04:53:22	will chinas cpi increase by 0pt6 over the 12 month period ending in october 2026	No	BUY	219	76¢	$167	0x016c7c…
10-16 04:49:00	ilhan omar denaturalization case filed by december 31 2026	No	SELL	187	85¢	$159	0x519c94…
10-16 04:41:19	ilhan omar denaturalization case filed by december 31 2026	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0xdd2ae5…
10-16 03:59:09	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.6 on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xabbf2c…
10-16 02:55:48	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.8 on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x1476ed…
10-16 02:07:28	Will Tatyana Ali be eliminated in week 6 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	Yes	BUY	91	6¢	$5	0x93997a…
10-16 02:04:03	Will Connor Wood be eliminated in week 6 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	Yes	BUY	99	7¢	$7	0x13c2d1…
10-16 02:02:27	Will Tatyana Ali be eliminated in week 6 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	Yes	BUY	9	8¢	$1	0xd78697…
10-16 02:02:27	Will Tatyana Ali be eliminated in week 6 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	Yes	BUY	91	8¢	$7	0x80f58f…
10-15 23:17:03	will the black ball be nominated for best sound at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	300	55¢	$166	0x423ad6…
10-15 20:50:33	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.6 on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x95db22…
10-15 19:14:32	trump approval rating at least 37pt0 on october 23 2026	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xf68ba8…
10-15 18:50:23	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.8 on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	89¢	$15	0xaf3e22…
10-15 18:44:29	trump approval rating at least 37pt0 on october 23 2026	Yes	BUY	9	72¢	$7	0x5182bb…
10-15 18:10:31	trump approval rating at least 37pt0 on october 23 2026	Yes	BUY	17	72¢	$12	0xe4fc06…
10-15 17:59:23	trump approval rating at least 37pt0 on october 23 2026	Yes	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x7e9cd8…
10-15 17:56:04	trump approval rating at least 37pt0 on october 23 2026	Yes	BUY	15	72¢	$11	0x9d49c1…
10-15 17:52:50	trump approval rating at least 37pt0 on october 23 2026	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xb07e94…
10-15 17:43:05	trump approval rating at least 36pt0 on october 23 2026	Yes	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xa2f11a…
10-15 17:35:32	trump approval rating at least 37pt0 on october 23 2026	Yes	BUY	15	72¢	$10	0xaf7371…
10-15 17:26:44	trump approval rating at least 36pt0 on october 23 2026	Yes	BUY	14	75¢	$10	0xe68423…
10-15 17:24:35	will the black ball be nominated for best sound at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xc25f17…
10-15 17:06:50	Will China’s CPI increase by ≤0.6% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	BUY	183	70¢	$128	0xd692e8…
10-15 17:05:58	will the black ball be nominated for best sound at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x193e40…
10-15 16:59:13	will the black ball be nominated for best sound at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	160	38¢	$62	0x6aa857…
10-15 16:54:35	will the black ball be nominated for best sound at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x7efdd2…
10-15 16:45:34	trump approval rating at least 37pt0 on october 23 2026	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x2d8e81…
10-15 16:44:11	trump approval rating at least 36pt0 on october 23 2026	Yes	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0x049e9b…
10-15 13:39:38	will the odyssey be nominated for best sound at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	120	85¢	$102	0xc81de8…
10-15 13:28:14	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.4 on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	54¢	$86	0x631875…
10-15 13:19:49	Will Jackson Olson be eliminated in week 6 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	Yes	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0xeaa40c…
10-15 11:11:52	will the odyssey be nominated for best sound at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	120	62¢	$75	0x8d00ff…
10-15 06:11:19	dwts 35 week 6 elimination conwoo	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xa2b84c…