Realized P&L
+$43.9K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.54K
Hit rate
67.4%
Resolved
218
Trades
2,325
lifetime
Volume
$290.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$125
Open exposure
$521
3 positions
First seen
2026-03-05
last 06-12 14:52
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 64 days
Categories
Politics
68%
55%
+$46,249
Other
30%
40%
-$2,082
Sports
2%
44%
-$270
Crypto
0%
0%
-$10
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-12).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | -7,143 | -$1,500 | 6¢ | $-393 | +$1,107 | 04-30 06:50 | |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | -1,819 | -$455 | 6¢ | $-104 | +$351 | 05-12 11:44 | |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | -640 | -$109 | 4¢ | $-25 | +$84 | 05-12 11:47 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982 | 58 | $18.3K | 45,444 | 35,881 | +9,563 | Yes | +$12,220 | 04-21 17:34 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | 78 | $17.4K | 28,506 | 26,506 | +2,000 | No | +$2,118 | 04-26 13:55 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | 42 | $17.4K | 14,355 | 14,355 | +0 | No | +$10,025 | 04-21 23:32 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346 | 55 | $15.5K | 46,776 | 30,985 | +15,791 | Yes | +$6,100 | 04-21 17:56 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 35 | $13.0K | 25,221 | 26,804 | -1,583 | No | -$92 | 04-16 12:15 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 79 | $12.4K | 31,020 | 30,794 | +226 | No | +$232 | 05-05 09:07 |
| usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388 | 26 | $10.9K | 13,857 | 11,063 | +2,795 | No | -$2,705 | 03-24 22:58 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 28 | $8.2K | 8,754 | 8,754 | +0 | Yes | +$4,529 | 04-07 22:36 |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | 47 | $7.6K | 26,724 | 26,724 | +0 | No | -$106 | 05-05 09:06 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 57 | $7.5K | 24,611 | 24,611 | +0 | No | -$461 | 03-31 18:07 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | 12 | $7.4K | 7,061 | 7,061 | +0 | Yes | +$1,697 | 04-11 19:56 |
| will israel strike 2 countries in march 2026 | 8 | $7.3K | 4,201 | 4,201 | +0 | No | +$252 | 03-20 06:18 |
| will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31 | 20 | $6.0K | 4,428 | 4,428 | +0 | Yes | +$34 | 03-12 14:06 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026 | 22 | $5.8K | 10,314 | 10,314 | +0 | No | +$2 | 04-17 15:29 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 25 | $5.7K | 72,349 | 76,293 | -3,944 | No | +$247 | 03-18 03:08 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 20 | $4.9K | 5,771 | 5,771 | +0 | Yes | +$240 | 04-03 16:07 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 64 | $4.4K | 10,493 | 7,993 | +2,500 | No | -$10 | 04-01 13:50 |
| us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026 | 20 | $3.4K | 6,151 | 2,976 | +3,175 | No | +$195 | 04-23 17:57 |
| iran leadership change by march 31 | 45 | $3.4K | 7,117 | 7,117 | +0 | No | +$203 | 03-20 06:25 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | 23 | $3.4K | 7,630 | 8,630 | -1,000 | No | +$537 | 04-17 19:02 |
| ucl mnc1 rma1 2026 03 17 rma1 | 10 | $3.0K | 3,748 | 3,748 | +0 | Yes | +$1,190 | 03-17 23:45 |
| elc bbr cov 2026 04 18 cov | 4 | $2.9K | 2,961 | 2,961 | +0 | No | -$72 | 04-17 19:14 |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? | 10 | $2.8K | 3,168 | 3,168 | +0 | No | +$887 | 04-17 13:32 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | 6 | $2.7K | 4,485 | 4,485 | +0 | Yes | -$84 | 04-06 14:45 |
| Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? | 14 | $2.7K | 4,561 | 4,561 | +0 | No | -$316 | 04-19 11:57 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 31 | $2.6K | 9,531 | 9,531 | +0 | No | -$18 | 04-26 04:51 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | 23 | $2.6K | 4,563 | 4,563 | +0 | No | +$73 | 04-03 14:46 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | 9 | $2.5K | 4,324 | 4,324 | +0 | Yes | -$109 | 04-06 15:00 |
| trump announces hormuz deadline extension today | 3 | $2.3K | 5,225 | 0 | +5,225 | Yes | +$2,945 | 04-07 21:31 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 31 | 33 | $2.2K | 10,281 | 10,281 | +0 | No | -$119 | 03-27 17:01 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||