First-Vintage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

74.1%

Resolved

328

Trades

751

lifetime

Volume

$10.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-20

last 11-03 07:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 62 days

Categories

Other

72% 75% +$1

Crypto

19% 76% +$0

Politics

5% 80% $0

Sports

2% 44% $0

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Hull City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No		+9	$9	100¢	$9	$0	11-03 07:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will solana dip to 50 june 22 28 2026	5	$136	68	68	+0	No	+$0	06-28 20:39
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 1?	3	$79	39	39	+0	No	+$0	06-01 15:49
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 5?	3	$74	37	37	+0	No	+$0	07-04 20:16
Will Stephen Heidt win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?	3	$70	35	35	+0	No	+$0	05-20 02:45
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 5?	4	$68	34	34	+0	No	+$0	07-05 12:43
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?	12	$65	32	32	+0	No	+$0	06-30 10:55
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	06-30 00:29
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on July 12?	4	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-11 06:03
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 25?	4	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	06-25 15:20
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 26?	5	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	06-26 05:49
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 59°F or below on June 25?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	06-25 07:36
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	$0	05-16 17:17
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 3?	3	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-03 06:59
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 27?	4	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-26 18:54
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 3?	6	$59	29	29	+0	No	$0	07-03 07:56
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 25°C on May 27?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-27 21:07
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 5?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-05 01:06
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-10 15:56
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	3	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-25 16:41
bitcoin above 66k on june 28 2026	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	$0	06-27 17:24
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on June 2?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	06-02 15:30
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on June 1?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	06-01 04:07
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 19?	3	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-20 00:11
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?	3	$57	28	28	+0	No	$0	06-29 11:39
xrp above 1pt2 on june 26 2026	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	06-26 10:17
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or below on May 17?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-17 05:11
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 29?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	06-28 20:38
ethereum above 1400 on june 28 2026	2	$56	28	28	+0	Yes	+$0	06-28 12:57
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 42°C on June 27?	3	$56	28	28	+0	No	$0	06-26 22:02
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 16?	2	$55	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-16 13:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 07:55:45	Will Hull City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xcf0a12…
10-25 23:36:57	Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xaa0e6f…
10-25 23:36:03	Will Alavés win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x0ad922…
10-25 23:35:08	Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xcf964d…
10-19 19:28:21	Will Alavés win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x361784…
10-15 04:23:26	Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1d1d82…
10-09 13:25:01	Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x94da8c…
10-09 13:24:10	Will Koa Peat win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$1	0x783564…
10-09 13:23:16	Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x3de923…
10-09 02:38:36	Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xae747e…
10-05 05:23:26	Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xa95030…
10-05 05:22:34	Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xff88bb…
09-21 14:27:51	Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xf2b46b…
09-21 12:57:11	Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x2f15e6…
09-13 12:52:39	Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x5e6493…
09-10 07:39:57	Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x4fd7ff…
09-10 07:38:43	Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x7e456b…
09-10 07:37:30	Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xee3ac7…
09-10 07:36:18	Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xf091f6…
09-07 15:07:27	Will Koa Peat win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x1bf2ab…
09-06 03:18:09	Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x01e54d…
09-01 20:12:43	Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa9d34f…
08-26 16:42:30	Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x90d6ac…
08-14 00:51:34	Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x6b060f…
08-11 14:11:30	Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1de75f…
08-09 08:49:06	Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x5c9d44…
07-16 05:51:52	ethereum above 2200 on july 16 2026	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xddd199…
07-16 05:50:17	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on July 16?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$19	0xf19b8a…
07-15 15:49:23	ethereum above 2200 on july 16 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8e6f0c…
07-15 05:36:11	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on July 16?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$19	0xaf321b…
07-14 17:05:23	bitcoin above 60k on july 15 2026	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xcd7d27…
07-14 16:30:41	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 14?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x7aa05f…
07-14 14:14:22	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 15?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x2468ca…
07-14 12:57:40	will bank of america say growth 5 times during earnings call 20260710144833029	Yes	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xde504d…
07-14 12:25:59	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on July 15?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x10d829…
07-14 11:56:28	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 15?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf79da5…
07-14 10:22:10	ethereum above 1600 on july 14 2026	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xd58814…
07-14 09:54:02	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 15?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x34a5ec…
07-14 09:44:14	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 14?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xbf9e17…
07-14 06:27:55	will bank of america say growth 5 times during earnings call 20260710144833029	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x06a38d…
07-13 21:11:13	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 14?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x3cc9d1…
07-13 21:10:26	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 14?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x43ee6b…
07-13 18:19:52	ethereum above 1600 on july 14 2026	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x916aea…
07-13 18:14:52	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 14?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x60aaf1…
07-13 17:39:40	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 14?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x74ef68…
07-13 17:39:07	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 14?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xd14e90…
07-13 17:35:23	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 14?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xc37d4e…
07-13 16:16:01	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 14?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x5ec724…
07-13 15:27:49	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 14?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xe04335…
07-13 12:31:17	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 14?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x05178e…
07-13 11:57:38	Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x37ab61…
07-13 11:56:43	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x81c11e…
07-13 11:16:29	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xea3ef8…
07-13 10:30:34	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on July 13?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xb794f3…
07-13 06:57:01	Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x9143c3…
07-13 03:52:43	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 13?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf7ab3c…
07-13 03:52:43	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 13?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x2302c7…
07-13 03:35:37	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 13?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x51617a…
07-13 03:35:34	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 13?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$6	0x1f29bf…
07-13 03:19:46	bitcoin above 68k on july 13 2026	No	SELL	12	100¢	$11	0xf2927e…
07-13 03:18:13	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or below on July 13?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$12	0xe3f831…
07-13 03:15:19	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on July 13?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xfa0af9…
07-13 03:15:19	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on July 13?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x8819df…
07-13 03:11:43	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on July 13?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe6e126…
07-13 02:28:28	bitcoin above 68k on july 13 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$11	0x19fcc9…
07-12 23:11:59	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on July 13?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x193ece…
07-12 20:24:41	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or below on July 13?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$12	0x684503…
07-12 18:12:32	ethereum above 1600 on july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x49f649…
07-12 18:00:17	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 13?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x06a2f7…
07-12 17:45:47	will ethereum reach 2000 july 6 12 2026	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xbb4739…
07-12 15:23:11	will ethereum reach 2000 july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x314026…
07-12 12:49:08	ethereum above 1600 on july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf8aeed…
07-12 12:11:58	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C or below on July 13?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x23944d…
07-12 11:34:41	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on July 12?	Yes	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xc49e9d…
07-12 10:56:29	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 12?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x6e8702…
07-12 08:56:07	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on July 12?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xd402e5…
07-12 07:36:31	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 12?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x697785…
07-12 03:48:05	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C or below on July 13?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0cadee…
07-12 01:33:31	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C or below on July 13?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xcef782…
07-12 00:57:35	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C or below on July 13?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x222089…
07-12 00:20:29	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 12?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xd2f0be…
07-11 22:25:55	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 12?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x470a74…
07-11 19:45:13	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 12?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd2b67f…
07-11 14:26:37	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 11?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x4e60ab…
07-11 14:24:05	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 11?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x7fab57…
07-11 14:01:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 11?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x6d25b2…
07-11 13:37:34	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on July 12?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x5af777…
07-11 13:24:05	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on July 12?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x33fbc2…
07-11 11:16:20	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on July 12?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x0ec222…
07-11 06:25:28	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 11?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xa20d6f…
07-11 06:15:07	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on July 11?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x8975d8…
07-11 06:03:07	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on July 12?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x8ca5f9…
07-11 05:49:52	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on July 12?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x507a23…
07-11 04:53:32	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on July 12?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x8df01e…
07-11 04:04:58	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on July 11?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xea2b93…
07-11 03:58:32	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or below on July 11?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x8055fa…
07-11 02:28:05	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on July 12?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa0b115…
07-11 00:55:34	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 42°C or higher on July 11?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xddbd68…
07-10 23:00:29	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C or higher on July 11?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x41f7bc…
07-10 21:31:16	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on July 11?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x8b6a45…