Limping-Elderberry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13.8K

Unrealized P&L

+$107

Hit rate

69.8%

Resolved

1,202

Trades

4,759

lifetime

Volume

$152.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

$265

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 00:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 207 days

Categories

Politics

63% 69% +$13,158

Other

30% 65% -$84

Sports

4% 35% -$224

Crypto

3% 68% +$797

Pop-Culture

0% 67% +$115

Tech

0% 50% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	-220	-$122	94¢	$-208	-$86	06-11 20:40
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-270	-$94	8¢	$-20	+$74	05-12 15:45
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	-400	-$80	4¢	$-16	+$64	05-08 13:52
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	-181	-$22	7¢	$-12	+$9	07-22 04:41
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-100	-$54	8¢	$-8	+$46	04-30 02:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	22	$2.8K	2,500	2,500	+0	No	-$35	06-20 13:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	26	$2.7K	2,689	2,689	+0	Yes	+$934	06-16 03:24
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	44	$2.4K	3,193	2,391	+802	No	+$840	05-17 17:36
Will "Tesla" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 1?	10	$2.3K	1,682	1,550	+132	No	-$954	06-03 05:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	7	$2.1K	1,300	1,300	+0	No	+$158	06-24 01:43
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	20	$1.9K	1,185	1,185	+0	Yes	+$42	02-28 18:56
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	29	$1.9K	2,500	2,500	+0	Yes	+$159	06-12 20:45
will trump say doordash or mcdonalds during no tax on tips roundtable	6	$1.8K	1,873	291	+1,583	Yes	+$1	04-17 00:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	12	$1.7K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	-$867	06-14 21:44
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	14	$1.5K	1,406	1,406	-0	Yes	-$59	06-13 18:15
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	5	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$312	06-15 19:01
will leavitt say democrat shutdown during the next white house press briefing	8	$1.5K	824	806	+19	Yes	-$43	03-25 18:06
will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	11	$1.4K	2,036	1,419	+617	No	+$1,450	06-26 22:46
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	37	$1.4K	6,920	6,920	+0	No	+$643	06-02 08:19
will trump say too big to rig at the nrcc dinner on march 25 922	5	$1.4K	719	719	+0	No	+$14	03-26 01:07
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 1?	11	$1.4K	806	806	+0	No	-$117	06-03 17:04
will trump say obliterated or obliteration during the white house easter egg roll	7	$1.4K	811	743	+67	Yes	+$155	04-06 15:16
will trump be said during the first episode of the joe rogan experience of the week april 6	4	$1.3K	768	768	+0	No	+$0	04-09 02:17
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 19	6	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$38	06-13 16:33
will trump say hormuz during cabinet meeting on march 26	3	$1.2K	720	720	+0	Yes	+$220	03-26 15:20
Will Trump say "TrumpRX" or "TrumpRX Dot Gov" in April?	4	$1.2K	2,150	0	+2,150	Yes	+$953	04-18 13:14
Will "Government" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 1?	7	$1.1K	641	641	+0	No	-$117	06-02 21:09
Will "Instagram" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 1?	2	$1.0K	713	712	+1	No	-$361	06-02 17:45
will trump say favored nation at the nrcc dinner on march 25 338	5	$1.0K	548	548	+0	Yes	+$83	03-26 01:47
will trump say equipment during national agriculture day events	2	$974	497	497	+0	Yes	+$11	03-27 16:56
will trump say six seven during speech to the nation 20260713200621435	2	$914	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$86	07-16 23:17
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Coast Guard event?	27	$903	2,657	27	+2,631	Yes	-$862	05-20 16:19
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 1?	5	$895	500	500	+0	No	-$55	06-03 17:00
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	6	$864	600	820	-220	open	—	06-11 20:40
Will "System" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 1?	6	$861	482	482	-0	Yes	-$90	06-02 21:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 00:29:32	Will Trump say "Drug" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xc17886…
10-28 23:32:56	Will Trump say "Ass" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	Yes	BUY	51	92¢	$47	0x855262…
10-28 23:30:11	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" or "Deport" or "Deported" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	No	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x48dfdf…
10-28 23:27:26	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" or "Deport" or "Deported" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xe77bbc…
10-28 01:36:51	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0x712304…
10-28 01:35:33	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	SELL	53	8¢	$4	0xd0a8ca…
10-28 01:31:33	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x182e9c…
10-28 01:24:59	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	SELL	44	7¢	$3	0xb848c1…
10-28 01:22:03	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	SELL	16	24¢	$4	0x62fbc7…
10-28 00:44:12	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	BUY	99	20¢	$20	0xdd355b…
10-28 00:19:36	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xcf4bc7…
10-28 00:19:33	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	SELL	8	32¢	$3	0xdcd135…
10-28 00:18:21	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	BUY	44	31¢	$14	0x61afc1…
10-27 23:07:44	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" or "Deport" or "Deported" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	Yes	SELL	97	28¢	$27	0xea6ad6…
10-27 21:25:00	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" or "Deport" or "Deported" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	Yes	SELL	13	38¢	$5	0xd1c30c…
10-27 20:23:35	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" or "Deport" or "Deported" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	Yes	BUY	110	18¢	$20	0x7c1a8d…
10-27 20:18:26	Will Trump say "Google" during his Midterm Rally in Corpus Christi, Texas?	No	SELL	82	88¢	$73	0x97ebc7…
10-27 19:53:26	Will Trump say "Google" during his Midterm Rally in Corpus Christi, Texas?	No	SELL	28	80¢	$22	0x6a0cbf…
10-27 19:49:39	Will Trump say "Google" during his Midterm Rally in Corpus Christi, Texas?	No	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0x46d364…
10-27 19:11:15	Will Trump say "Google" during his Midterm Rally in Corpus Christi, Texas?	No	BUY	120	35¢	$42	0xab5484…
10-27 16:35:18	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" or "Deport" or "Deported" during his Midterm Rally in Corpus Christi, Texas?	No	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0xbe4666…
10-26 23:54:47	Will Trump say "Biden" or "Kamala" or "Obama" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Mississippi?	No	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x4c1332…
10-26 23:54:17	Will Trump say "Biden" or "Kamala" or "Obama" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Mississippi?	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x7b8de6…
10-26 23:04:27	Will Trump say "Biden" or "Kamala" or "Obama" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Mississippi?	No	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0xab2f9b…
10-26 22:34:50	Will Trump say "Hormuz" or "Blockade" during his Midterm Rally in Mississippi?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x1d4e64…
10-26 02:03:12	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	No	SELL	115	99¢	$114	0x1bb275…
10-25 20:54:05	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	No	BUY	115	45¢	$52	0x921b7b…
10-25 20:46:26	Will Trump say "Canada" 4+ times during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	No	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x6d20af…
10-25 20:40:54	Will Trump say "Canada" 4+ times during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	No	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xd00e2d…
10-25 20:34:30	Will Trump say "Canada" 4+ times during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x914799…
10-25 20:33:02	Will Trump say "Canada" 4+ times during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	No	SELL	6	85¢	$5	0xee6956…
10-25 20:21:09	Will Trump say "Canada" 4+ times during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	No	BUY	34	40¢	$14	0x295eaf…
10-24 21:48:09	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Yes	SELL	50	57¢	$28	0x946838…
10-23 20:14:56	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	No	SELL	35	90¢	$32	0xee4480…
10-23 19:40:18	Will Trump say "Hormuz" or "Blockade" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Yes	BUY	66	61¢	$40	0x8b6728…
10-23 18:59:53	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Yes	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0x354a94…
10-23 17:50:53	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	No	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0xb9bab8…
10-23 00:55:53	Will Trump say "Hormuz" or "Blockade" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	Yes	BUY	87	55¢	$48	0xbb9da0…
10-23 00:12:24	Will Trump say "Hormuz" or "Blockade" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	Yes	BUY	88	63¢	$56	0xf9dda5…
10-22 00:13:11	Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	63	97¢	$61	0x54c87a…
10-21 19:05:26	Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" this week?	No	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0x5499e1…
10-21 18:57:06	Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" this week?	No	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x8b5a27…
10-21 18:57:03	Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" this week?	No	SELL	95	60¢	$57	0xa8f731…
10-21 14:57:48	Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" this week?	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x5cb009…
08-29 18:04:01	Will Leavitt say "Iran" 5+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	SELL	122	95¢	$116	0xaa1c79…
08-28 13:20:16	Will Leavitt say "Iran" 5+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	BUY	122	84¢	$102	0x01fc2b…
08-26 01:52:10	Will Leavitt say "Go ahead" 5+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	SELL	56	75¢	$42	0xda9f16…
08-25 20:56:18	Will Leavitt say "Administration" 10+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	SELL	40	80¢	$32	0x8947f8…
08-25 00:50:28	Will Leavitt say "Pool" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0x8f2498…
08-21 22:49:49	will leavitt say pool during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550026	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0xd57646…
08-20 19:06:55	will trump say gaza in august 20260728181450066	No	SELL	23	49¢	$11	0x580116…
08-17 17:59:09	will trump say lincoln memorial in august 20260728181450080	Yes	SELL	100	60¢	$60	0x19c974…
08-14 20:37:27	will trump say no no no this week 20260807162748308	Yes	SELL	91	33¢	$30	0x65245e…
08-14 17:15:37	will trump say no no no this week 20260807162748308	Yes	SELL	90	50¢	$45	0xf79a78…
08-12 19:34:04	will trump say no no no this week 20260807162748308	Yes	BUY	3	17¢	$0	0x8d3785…
08-12 06:12:52	will trump say no no no this week 20260807162748308	Yes	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0x65ad40…
08-11 17:53:33	will trump say no no no this week 20260807162748308	Yes	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0x73ed67…
08-11 06:17:12	will trump say six seven this week 20260807162748311	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x0181fe…
08-10 20:15:07	will leavitt say pool during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550026	No	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xb88757…
08-10 19:35:04	will trump say kevin or warsh this week 20260807162748305	Yes	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0x9d5e57…
08-10 19:34:58	will trump say kevin or warsh this week 20260807162748305	Yes	BUY	35	99¢	$34	0x691e87…
08-10 14:32:30	will leavitt say pool during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550026	No	BUY	0	54¢	$0	0x648a96…
08-10 14:13:40	will trump say lincoln memorial in august 20260728181450080	Yes	SELL	7	68¢	$5	0x98530d…
08-10 13:19:22	will leavitt say madness during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550021	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xdf872b…
08-09 14:54:57	will leavitt say pool during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550026	No	BUY	10	54¢	$6	0x04ee90…
08-09 14:16:21	will trump say no no no this week 20260807162748308	Yes	BUY	30	32¢	$10	0x4ce8f4…
08-09 08:27:58	will trump say no no no this week 20260807162748308	Yes	BUY	25	32¢	$8	0x1d51af…
08-09 08:27:57	will trump say no no no this week 20260807162748308	Yes	BUY	12	32¢	$4	0xfdeb95…
08-09 08:27:57	will trump say no no no this week 20260807162748308	Yes	BUY	25	32¢	$8	0x3782e2…
08-09 08:27:42	will trump say no no no this week 20260807162748308	Yes	BUY	40	32¢	$13	0xb6ad38…
08-09 08:27:42	will trump say no no no this week 20260807162748308	Yes	BUY	40	32¢	$13	0x4a2f87…
08-09 08:27:40	will trump say no no no this week 20260807162748308	Yes	BUY	18	32¢	$6	0xdb7bf4…
08-07 19:58:22	will leavitt say administration 10 times during the next white house press briefing 20260723172420403	No	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x3c40a0…
08-07 19:23:10	will trump say national security during friday roundtable 20260805211427279	No	BUY	26	59¢	$15	0xc0a2ff…
08-07 19:15:49	will trump say trump during friday roundtable 20260805211427290	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x310f7b…
08-07 19:13:09	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during friday roundtable 20260805211427284	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xad4f05…
08-07 08:53:57	will trump say no no no this week 20260731171246145	Yes	SELL	60	50¢	$30	0x1bfb86…
08-06 23:27:44	will trump say china or chinese during team usa reception 20260806140037185	No	BUY	59	99¢	$59	0x9d7e4b…
08-06 23:27:32	will trump say oil or gas or gasoline during team usa reception 20260806140037186	No	BUY	62	99¢	$61	0x86650e…
08-06 23:26:30	will trump say transgender during team usa reception 20260806140037187	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x552a9a…
08-06 23:25:54	will trump say transgender during team usa reception 20260806140037187	No	BUY	192	95¢	$182	0x508b71…
08-06 23:24:18	will trump say oval office during team usa reception 20260806140037180	Yes	BUY	106	98¢	$104	0xd5cca2…
08-06 23:08:26	will trump say hottest during team usa reception 20260806140037184	Yes	SELL	9	19¢	$2	0x923ed2…
08-06 23:08:14	will trump say hottest during team usa reception 20260806140037184	Yes	SELL	32	20¢	$6	0x0e569a…
08-06 20:45:06	will trump say transgender during team usa reception 20260806140037187	No	SELL	2	80¢	$1	0x064edf…
08-06 20:30:50	will trump say china or chinese during team usa reception 20260806140037185	No	SELL	125	77¢	$96	0xc34290…
08-06 20:24:36	will trump say oil or gas or gasoline during team usa reception 20260806140037186	No	BUY	300	3¢	$9	0xc8b03d…
08-06 20:24:29	will trump say oil or gas or gasoline during team usa reception 20260806140037186	No	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x25b909…
08-06 20:23:32	will trump say oil or gas or gasoline during team usa reception 20260806140037186	No	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xb36f39…
08-06 20:16:09	will trump say hottest during team usa reception 20260806140037184	Yes	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0x443c03…
08-06 20:14:53	will trump say hottest during team usa reception 20260806140037184	Yes	SELL	50	55¢	$28	0xd45658…
08-06 20:01:47	will trump say china or chinese during team usa reception 20260806140037185	No	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0xeb784c…
08-06 19:48:59	will trump say china or chinese during team usa reception 20260806140037185	No	BUY	46	52¢	$24	0x1d4cdb…
08-06 19:48:54	will trump say china or chinese during team usa reception 20260806140037185	No	BUY	54	52¢	$28	0xaf6a9b…
08-06 19:48:44	will trump say oil or gas or gasoline during team usa reception 20260806140037186	No	BUY	150	45¢	$68	0x824305…
08-06 19:18:15	will trump say team 15 times during team usa reception 20260806140037176	No	SELL	55	50¢	$28	0x848aa7…
08-06 17:59:02	will trump say transgender during team usa reception 20260806140037187	No	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x201446…
08-06 17:47:27	will trump say team 15 times during team usa reception 20260806140037176	No	BUY	55	26¢	$14	0x3865ad…
08-06 17:13:08	will trump say hottest during team usa reception 20260806140037184	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0xb2b7b3…
08-06 17:11:21	will trump say china or chinese during team usa reception 20260806140037185	No	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0xce7db9…