Decent-Drop — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$515

Unrealized P&L

+$564

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,349

lifetime

Volume

$683.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$506

Open exposure

$49.9K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-20 06:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

66% 100% +$509

Politics

22% 100% +$6

Tech

11% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 59 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
New pandemic in 2026?	No	-24,794	$-23,268	94¢	$-23183	+$85	07-18 10:56
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	+21,287	$21,143	100¢	$21.2K	+$49	07-20 06:44
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+6,000	$5,060	92¢	$5.5K	+$430	07-08 17:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	54	$58.5K	29,795	29,795	+0	open	—	04-17 10:32
will microstrategy be delisted from the msci index by march 31	34	$34.2K	20,170	14,569	+5,602	open	—	03-31 07:03
Trump out as President by April 30?	25	$34.0K	19,845	14,500	+5,345	open	—	04-27 11:11
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	4	$29.6K	15,000	15,000	+0	open	—	02-17 19:41
New pandemic in 2026?	61	$28.4K	1,000	29,373	-28,373	open	—	07-18 10:56
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	57	$26.8K	29,697	21,836	+7,861	open	—	05-30 18:25
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	20	$25.8K	25,996	0	+25,996	open	—	07-20 06:44
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?	39	$24.6K	11,573	13,427	-1,855	open	—	04-30 09:31
trump out as president by march 31	29	$21.4K	10,598	11,025	-428	open	—	03-31 07:03
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	76	$20.7K	10,500	10,500	+0	No	+$42	04-26 16:54
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	5	$20.2K	16,000	5,000	+11,000	open	—	03-17 19:58
Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026?	19	$19.6K	12,832	7,000	+5,832	open	—	03-31 08:42
will the ecb announce a 50 bps decrease at the february 2026 meeting	13	$17.9K	13,000	4,969	+8,031	open	—	02-03 18:24
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	9	$15.9K	11,000	7,000	+4,000	open	—	07-08 17:26
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	15	$15.6K	10,500	5,750	+4,750	Yes	+$468	04-26 12:09
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?	47	$15.2K	7,812	7,629	+183	open	—	03-19 21:19
trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	99	$14.9K	10,000	5,000	+5,000	open	—	07-11 17:52
will gta 6 cost 100	33	$11.3K	11,408	0	+11,408	open	—	02-27 19:33
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	88	$10.9K	5,966	5,000	+966	open	—	06-28 18:45
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	4	$10.8K	11,000	0	+11,000	open	—	02-08 18:59
cilia flores released from custody by january 31 2026	3	$10.0K	10,064	0	+10,064	open	—	01-30 05:59
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$10.0K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	04-27 11:11
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$10.0K	0	10,000	-10,000	open	—	01-10 18:02
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	69	$9.9K	10,150	0	+10,150	open	—	04-13 11:06
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	37	$9.9K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	04-23 15:06
Netanyahu out by May 31?	25	$9.9K	8,000	2,000	+6,000	open	—	05-22 13:04
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	2	$9.9K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	01-13 05:12
no change in bank of japans interest rates after january 2026 meeting	22	$9.6K	9,750	0	+9,750	open	—	01-02 17:29
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?	20	$9.4K	4,737	4,737	+0	open	—	07-02 02:08
will the ecb announce no change at the february 2026 meeting	18	$8.8K	9,097	0	+9,097	open	—	01-16 06:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 07:58:15	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	715	100¢	$711	0xebac61…
07-20 06:44:09	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4,996	100¢	$4,971	0xea61a6…
07-19 20:26:28	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	819	100¢	$815	0xff768d…
07-19 15:43:57	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x5a769c…
07-19 15:33:34	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0xe586d0…
07-19 08:49:09	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x551ebf…
07-19 08:13:22	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x08cb0d…
07-18 18:56:15	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0xc97f03…
07-18 10:56:00	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	39	95¢	$37	0x1c6af2…
07-18 03:15:06	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x4085d8…
07-18 03:13:34	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,944	100¢	$2,929	0xa8d17b…
07-17 08:46:15	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	21	95¢	$20	0x1b501a…
07-15 21:25:25	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	652	99¢	$648	0x43e787…
07-15 21:19:53	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	348	99¢	$345	0x47d32b…
07-15 18:14:31	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	42	95¢	$40	0x3c0821…
07-15 03:34:46	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5,000	99¢	$4,950	0xf5b9ac…
07-14 13:41:29	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	291	99¢	$288	0x46c308…
07-13 19:00:44	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	432	95¢	$411	0x314f65…
07-13 07:59:40	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	874	99¢	$868	0x13a00f…
07-13 06:37:07	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	273	99¢	$271	0x8ca0b7…
07-13 06:01:16	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x7f4ea9…
07-12 22:10:31	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	103	99¢	$102	0x702508…
07-12 20:41:20	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$993	0x5d820f…
07-12 20:41:01	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,500	99¢	$1,490	0x992525…
07-12 20:40:46	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,250	99¢	$1,241	0x066d28…
07-12 18:40:49	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x7a5354…
07-12 18:21:41	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$11	0xb6bfc1…
07-12 14:03:41	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	17	95¢	$16	0xca1638…
07-11 18:29:05	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x33e23a…
07-11 17:52:01	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	5,000	99¢	$4,965	0x187ec9…
07-11 17:21:14	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xfb802c…
07-11 14:11:17	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xbdd8ee…
07-11 14:05:20	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	300	95¢	$285	0xe17cd4…
07-11 10:02:34	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xc6b274…
07-11 05:38:08	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	906	95¢	$861	0xbbffe8…
07-10 22:06:25	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	62	95¢	$58	0xbb9a16…
07-10 19:54:20	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xd74704…
07-10 19:49:10	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x940ebc…
07-10 18:44:08	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	667	95¢	$633	0xae9379…
07-10 18:12:25	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0x03a531…
07-10 17:40:59	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1,823	94¢	$1,714	0xa51aa9…
07-10 15:16:20	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	900	95¢	$855	0x109270…
07-10 15:15:41	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xde0408…
07-10 14:52:29	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xdbce23…
07-10 14:46:29	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xed1a61…
07-10 14:03:31	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xf1c5e3…
07-10 13:41:25	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x9a1b2a…
07-10 12:29:20	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x1869db…
07-10 01:43:14	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	8	95¢	$8	0xe56110…
07-09 20:12:28	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xd304fd…
07-09 18:09:49	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x04c139…
07-09 17:28:22	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x19ff86…
07-09 16:59:20	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x7f749c…
07-09 16:38:50	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x4a3cdc…
07-09 15:37:25	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	760	100¢	$756	0xdb82a2…
07-09 15:25:19	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	202	100¢	$201	0xe536d7…
07-09 15:04:47	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xb69b12…
07-09 14:56:01	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1b9d81…
07-09 14:48:34	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x94094d…
07-09 14:42:58	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1acef3…
07-09 14:40:05	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe47c46…
07-09 14:27:16	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x7144e3…
07-09 14:12:08	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xfbb1d5…
07-09 14:08:55	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	503	99¢	$500	0x46d313…
07-09 13:55:07	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x246117…
07-09 13:51:01	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xfdf3cb…
07-09 13:48:22	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x907716…
07-09 13:48:13	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xbc83a5…
07-09 13:38:13	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x757d63…
07-09 13:37:34	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x7f7926…
07-09 13:27:32	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x50b6d0…
07-09 13:24:56	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1612bd…
07-09 13:21:16	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xdea130…
07-09 13:19:46	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xee7bcb…
07-09 13:12:02	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x63e51e…
07-09 13:08:01	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	500	100¢	$498	0xb6bbf1…
07-09 13:07:41	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	16	99¢	$15	0xf7269b…
07-09 12:59:52	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xaf49c1…
07-09 12:24:02	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x42638c…
07-09 12:16:56	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	169	100¢	$168	0x70c6ca…
07-09 10:39:28	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	288	100¢	$287	0x412255…
07-09 09:55:59	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	502	100¢	$499	0x577ff5…
07-09 08:24:16	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x48ed65…
07-09 08:06:41	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0xbfaaff…
07-09 07:41:10	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	122	100¢	$121	0xa19a15…
07-09 07:14:53	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x2ad202…
07-09 04:37:17	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	49	99¢	$49	0x8bae49…
07-09 04:12:16	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1,013	99¢	$1,008	0xe03a1b…
07-09 03:33:13	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x9e4260…
07-09 03:23:38	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x5c6b4c…
07-09 03:14:47	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xc1d732…
07-09 02:20:34	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0xae708f…
07-09 01:04:59	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	107	100¢	$106	0x398074…
07-09 00:27:23	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xab0207…
07-09 00:27:20	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x54bdc6…
07-09 00:27:19	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x8866ad…
07-09 00:27:17	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x0c6b7b…
07-09 00:27:16	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x33c83d…
07-08 17:26:16	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,000	91¢	$1,820	0x8fe326…
07-08 17:00:23	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	567	99¢	$565	0x20fff6…