Realized P&L
+$394
Unrealized P&L
-$10
Hit rate
57.7%
Resolved
3,578
Trades
4,436
lifetime
Volume
$31.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$7
Open exposure
$2.35K
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-13
last 11-11 14:29
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 108 days
Categories
Crypto
73% 65% +$498
Other
18% 21% -$93
Politics
5% 0% -$5
Sports
3% 50% -$4
Pop-Culture
1% — —
Tech
1% 0% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
76 active days in 12wk • peak 103 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? No +300 $253 81¢ $244 -$9 11-11 10:24
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +214 $80 54¢ $114 +$35 10-28 01:00
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? No +100 $96 100¢ $100 +$4 11-09 01:21
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +214 $137 46¢ $100 -$37 10-31 01:51
Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2027? No +100 $93 99¢ $99 +$5 11-08 01:16
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? Yes +100 $88 96¢ $96 +$7 11-06 22:29
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T? No +100 $90 92¢ $92 +$2 11-10 11:24
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No +100 $86 88¢ $88 +$2 11-07 03:09
Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2027? No +100 $88 88¢ $88 $0 11-06 22:30
Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? No +100 $85 88¢ $88 +$3 11-01 19:41
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? Yes +100 $86 87¢ $87 +$1 11-08 02:02
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No +100 $88 84¢ $84 -$4 11-10 21:59
Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? No +100 $79 80¢ $80 +$1 11-11 04:46
Will The Art of Loving (Olivia Dean) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards? No +100 $83 78¢ $78 -$5 11-03 21:08
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No +100 $69 77¢ $77 +$8 11-11 04:46
Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes +100 $79 76¢ $76 -$3 10-28 22:40
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? Yes +100 $90 70¢ $70 -$19 11-01 20:11
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? No +81 $65 84¢ $68 +$3 11-10 15:06
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026-27 NBA MVP? No +100 $69 66¢ $66 -$2 11-10 07:20
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 BBC Sports Personality of the Year award? Yes +100 $72 63¢ $63 -$8 11-10 17:31
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? Yes +300 $52 19¢ $56 +$4 11-11 10:24
Will David Lisnard win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? No +60 $49 86¢ $52 +$2 11-10 14:59
Will Ali G be TIME Person of the Year 2026? No +50 $50 99¢ $50 +$0 11-10 10:55
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? No +50 $48 98¢ $49 +$1 11-09 04:30
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2028? Yes +50 $46 98¢ $49 +$3 11-06 22:29
Discord IPO before 2027? No +50 $48 97¢ $49 +$0 11-08 12:07
Will Lionel Messi win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? Yes +50 $50 97¢ $49 -$1 11-09 04:43
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.80% before 2027? No +50 $48 95¢ $48 $0 11-09 18:12
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? No +50 $48 95¢ $48 -$1 11-07 15:49
Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 94? Yes +50 $47 95¢ $47 +$0 11-10 15:31